Outlook For The Set

[sabaijai]

Any experts out there on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)? If so any predictions for short to medium-term (3-5 years) returns? I'm eyeing a SET index fund at the moment, knowing I don't have the time to research each and every listed company and knowing the leaders will pull the market along, as with similar index funds elsewhere.

Finally any recos for a Bangkok broker?

[Harmonica]

Any experts out there on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)? If so any predictions for short to medium-term (3-5 years) returns? I'm eyeing a SET index fund at the moment, knowing I don't have the time to research each and every listed company and knowing the leaders will pull the market along, as with similar index funds elsewhere.

Finally any recos for a Bangkok broker?

Kim Eng Securities -- branches all over LOS -- ranked #1 and GOOD!!!

No expert -- just IMHO we're going south after this bogus rally completes. Review situation after SET=430 -- expectation of SET=205 or thereabouts in 3 years.

Having said that however, there will be plenty of intermediate-term rallies along the way -- I'll be there for them. Then, when Lord Thaksin gets SHORTING not just OKed, but implemented, I'll take some big swings at the brokerage sector -- for if this scenario plays out, many will go under, just as many did in 1997+.

[Braccobaldo]

...I have a different opinion from Harmonica...he's very simpatic to me and clever but in this case too pessimism there...I think thailand have learn the '97 lesson and they sorted out pretty good....obviously the trend in the Set will follow the "global trend" and I don't know if it will be up or down..but if will be an upper trend in Thailand it will be more strong than other countries...my opinion is Ok, let's put some money there, but not too much, just for distraction.....

[Harmonica]

If it backs down from 720 tomorrow (Friday) and then hits 685 next week and then rebounds, contact Caesar's Palace and place your bets to the downside at or before the subsequent high.

[sabaijai]

Thanks for the Kim Eng reco, Harmonica. Do you trade online?

It seems to me that once Thaksin/TRT win the election - which by the looks of it will be by a landslide - investors both foreign and domestic will perceive political stability in Thailand for the next three or four years, and that this will boost the SET steadily. After that, anyone's guess of course.

Seem reasonable?

[Harmonica]

It seems to me that once Thaksin/TRT win the election - which by the looks of it will be by a landslide - investors both foreign and domestic will perceive political stability in Thailand for the next three or four years, and that this will boost the SET steadily. After that, anyone's guess of course.

Seem reasonable?

Yes, that's reasonable -- but quite often there is a flurry of activity for a couple days or so and then the market tanks.

[thedude]

the SET's performance is very much linked to foreign buying and selling - when foreign trade is active, the SET moves, this is evident when you look at the daily volumes in local and foreign trading over time. whether foreign trading is active depends on a lot of things, but its usually to do with which other markets the funds are choosing to attack instead of this one, and so, inspite of all our scholarly deductions and scientific approach, the fate of the SET is sadly out of our hands. having said that, we can reasonably expect that foreign buyers are paying a lot of attention to the elections, with a TRT win meaning that they can comfortably bet on equities here for the next few months with the knowledge that nothing serious is going to happen, and knowing that the SET will be bolstered by local exhuberance. and so, i'd say that there will be continued growth in the SET for the next 3-6 months with an interim target of 800.

[Harmonica]

Thanks for the Kim Eng reco, Harmonica. Do you trade online?

It seems to me that once Thaksin/TRT win the election - which by the looks of it will be by a landslide - investors both foreign and domestic will perceive political stability in Thailand for the next three or four years, and that this will boost the SET steadily. After that, anyone's guess of course.

Seem reasonable?

My apologies for the incomplete answer -- yes I do trade online, but not as a daytrader -- which means I rarely sell the same day. In short rallies I might hold for 3-4 weeks, but my usual play is medium-term, which is 6-18 months.

[Harmonica]

Regarding Foreigners buying and selling shares as an indicator of the direction of SET and/or its turns -- I had mentioned this in another thread and now that Dude has brought up the same point, perhaps it is a good idea to show what we mean in picture form --

the formula for the chart is Foreigner NetBuy = (Buy - Sell)

This efficacy of this indicator is sublime!

Enjoy

Compliments to RDN for showing me how to bring an image into my post!

[alohasiam]

The SET is 100 or so points from the peak of 2 years ago. The Thai Homo Thai Party won as expected today so the dictatorship will be preserved and continued peacefully and it means local investors and foriegn buying will increase because there will be no political turmoil. I really hope SET will go up at least go up the level of 2 years ago at 800 so I can get out at least unharmed or only small harms.

[Harmonica]

The SET is 100 or so points from the peak of 2 years ago. The Thai Homo Thai Party won as expected today so the dictatorship will be preserved and continued peacefully and it means local investors and foriegn buying will increase because there will be no political turmoil. I really hope SET will go up at least go up the level of 2 years ago at 800 so I can get out at least unharmed or only small harms.

You mean one year ago, right?

[wimpy]

Any experts out there on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)? If so any predictions for short to medium-term (3-5 years) returns? I'm eyeing a SET index fund at the moment, knowing I don't have the time to research each and every listed company and knowing the leaders will pull the market along, as with similar index funds elsewhere.

Finally any recos for a Bangkok broker?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don’t think I would call 3-5 years “medium-term” for the Thai stock market. More like an eternity.

I am currently long one of the Thai mutual funds. When the SET hardly dropped at all after the tsunami, I felt it was exhibiting its underlying strength. That was when I got long in a big way. I will stay long until I see evidence of a top forming. The trend is currently up.

I don’t use a broker.

[Harmonica]

Any experts out there on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)? If so any predictions for short to medium-term (3-5 years) returns? I'm eyeing a SET index fund at the moment, knowing I don't have the time to research each and every listed company and knowing the leaders will pull the market along, as with similar index funds elsewhere.

Finally any recos for a Bangkok broker?

Sabaijai,

In addition to Kim Eng., there is also Philip Securites in Bangkok (Silom Road) -- they offer a daily download service (via Internet) of all stock market related data -- Baht, Yen too; Nasdq and Dow also. Only 4,000 Baht/year.

[Harmonica]

There is a strong possibility that SET might turn on a dime & head for the meadows in the vicinity of 750+ .... ONE MORE time .... before she gives up the ghost!

It might happen at the current springboard, namely the 694-704 support zone. But the support zone has got to "fire" if this is going to happen. Right now it is just slowpoking around.

It is a feeeeeling -- but it soy-tenly needs confirmation.

The Baht will let us know.

Again, not sure, just thoughting out aloud -- but soon, hopefully, she will send me a telegraphic whisper of intent --- hehehehe

[OldAsiaHand]

With respect to brokers, might also take a look at Seamico (www.seamico.com). They've made a minor speciality here of dealing with resident expats.

No broker will provide you US style service, however, so don't look for it. About the best you can hope for is the execution of your orders more than half the time without screwing them up. Unless you can talk the institutional guys into handling your account, many of whom are foreign, you'll be stuck with a retail broker. They're all Thai and not much more sophisticated than the Thai kids who work at McDonalds.

[Harmonica]

With respect to brokers, might also take a look at Seamico (www.seamico.com). They've made a minor speciality here of dealing with resident expats.

No broker will provide you US style service, however, so don't look for it. About the best you can hope for is the execution of your orders more than half the time without screwing them up. Unless you can talk the institutional guys into handling your account, many of whom are foreign, you'll be stuck with a retail broker. They're all Thai and not much more sophisticated than the Thai kids who work at McDonalds.

Utter rubbish! I told you to stop using your left hand, didn't I? You ought to have your bum spanked, salted & umeboshi-plumed for spewing out such torrents of false data!

The brokers here provide a level of service that eclipses that offered stateside; and very often here a broker will go out of his/her way to provide hours of one on one indoctrination and methodology for Farangs and Thais.

They have this in common, but some are better than others.

Top honors goes to Philip Securities in Bangkok, on Silom road.

IB Securities, Adkinsons, Kim Eng Securities in Phuket -- Tisco in BKK is also very good. BFIT in BKK is top-notch.

My personal rec. would be Kim Eng Securities in any city in LOS.

And orders are handled electronically or via Telephone etc. -- I've never had a problem and I've done many, many, many buys/sells.

[Harmonica]

Any experts out there on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)? If so any predictions for short to medium-term (3-5 years) returns? I'm eyeing a SET index fund at the moment, knowing I don't have the time to research each and every listed company and knowing the leaders will pull the market along, as with similar index funds elsewhere.

Finally any recos for a Bangkok broker?

Have you opened your account, Sabaijai? How have you been doing in the market? Did you buy the Index Fund you were contemplating?

If you like I can arrange for an introduction to Khun Chatchai at Philip Securities in Bangkok. He will fix you up and guide you well. He, IMHO is the best Tech. man in LOS. He gave me a tip once on a stock called Tisco -- Lead turned into Gold within 48 hours and kept on exponentializing!

[Harmonica]

There is a strong  possibility that SET might turn on a dime & head for the meadows in the vicinity of 750+ .... ONE MORE time .... before she gives up the ghost!

It might happen at the current springboard, namely the 694-704  support zone.  But the support zone has got to "fire" if this is going to happen.  Right now it is just slowpoking around.

It is a feeeeeling -- but it soy-tenly needs  confirmation.

The Baht will let us know.

Again, not sure, just thoughting out aloud -- but soon, hopefully, she will send me a telegraphic whisper of intent --- hehehehe 

The support @ 694-704 has failed!

Next support band 677- 685

Unbeknownst to the sellers there is a a battalion of buyers @ 672

and

a band of mercenaries (all buyers) @ 662, should the market get there! These well-armed and well-capitalized individuals (including Institutions) have the power and the wherewithal to take the market up again with verve.

[MikeWill]

Speaking of brokers, are there any foreign currency traders in Bkk one would recommend?

[Maka]

"These well-armed and well-capitalized individuals (including Institutions) have the power and the wherewithal to take the market up again with verve. "

But will they?

They have power and wherewithall, do they have motive?

[Harmonica]

"These well-armed and well-capitalized individuals (including Institutions) have the power and the wherewithal to take the market up again with verve. "

But will they?

They have power and wherewithall, do they have motive?

I believe they do have the motive, but all I can do is watch their selling for signs of a reversal aborning, wherein there is no more distribution, rather subterranean, stealth buying; sort of like "under cover of darkness" -- I do have the ability to spot it; but this I balance against their ability to confound and thwart my/(and that of other outsiders) attempts at early/accurate entry.

I'll try to get it right; but there are no guarantees.

[Harmonica]

SET has just nicked a pretty good trendline support @ 674. The market is still open, so we have to wait for the final numbers to see if this support is actually busted or not?

Anyway, there is strong support @ 660-666.

There is therefore a reasonably strong chance of reversal in this region (if we get there).

660-666 is where to watch for a reversal = rally.

Just "thoughting"

[sabaijai]

Any experts out there on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)? If so any predictions for short to medium-term (3-5 years) returns? I'm eyeing a SET index fund at the moment, knowing I don't have the time to research each and every listed company and knowing the leaders will pull the market along, as with similar index funds elsewhere.

Finally any recos for a Bangkok broker?

Have you opened your account, Sabaijai? How have you been doing in the market? Did you buy the Index Fund you were contemplating?

If you like I can arrange for an introduction to Khun Chatchai at Philip Securities in Bangkok. He will fix you up and guide you well. He, IMHO is the best Tech. man in LOS. He gave me a tip once on a stock called Tisco -- Lead turned into Gold within 48 hours and kept on exponentializing!

No I haven't opened an account yet, been busy but would like to get going soon. I found the website for Philip Securities and will be giving them a call. I can try K Chatchai if you have a phone number for him.

Thanks.

[Harmonica]

Any experts out there on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)? If so any predictions for short to medium-term (3-5 years) returns? I'm eyeing a SET index fund at the moment, knowing I don't have the time to research each and every listed company and knowing the leaders will pull the market along, as with similar index funds elsewhere.

Finally any recos for a Bangkok broker?

Have you opened your account, Sabaijai? How have you been doing in the market? Did you buy the Index Fund you were contemplating?

If you like I can arrange for an introduction to Khun Chatchai at Philip Securities in Bangkok. He will fix you up and guide you well. He, IMHO is the best Tech. man in LOS. He gave me a tip once on a stock called Tisco -- Lead turned into Gold within 48 hours and kept on exponentializing!

No I haven't opened an account yet, been busy but would like to get going soon. I found the website for Philip Securities and will be giving them a call. I can try K Chatchai if you have a phone number for him.

Thanks.

(02)635-3123 is Khun Chatchai's # -- not a direct line, so just ask for him by name.

Sooner or later you're going to bump into the intersection, "Fundamental or Technical" -- while you're deciding, Mr. C can keep you in the "green" -- goodluck!

[Harmonica]

SET rally highly likely today, fueled by Baht strenghtening today -- this call repeated in the Baht thread. US markets' higher close overnight ought to help sentiment here.

Shin is a good bet.

[Harmonica]

SET rally highly likely today, fueled by Baht strenghtening today -- this call repeated in the Baht thread.  US markets' higher close overnight ought to help sentiment here.

Shin is a good bet. 

SET charged out the gate @ 10:00 AM with a whopping +5.38 gap-up bang. This western woman still loves me; why, I'll never understand!

[Harmonica]

Taking profit, closing my position & retreating back to my bear cave.

Position closed.

[kreon]

...I have a different opinion from Harmonica...he's very simpatic to me and clever but in this case too pessimism there...I think thailand have learn the '97 lesson and they sorted out pretty good....obviously the trend in the Set will follow the "global trend" and I don't know if it will be up or down..but if will be an upper trend in Thailand it will be more strong than other countries...my opinion is Ok, let's put some money there, but not too much, just for distraction.....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

are you kidding me, i for one agree with harmonica, what i see in bangkok today is remembers me what its was like in 95/96, its going big bang anytime soon

then get into the market at 250 whatever and ride the set again for 6-8 years to where it was before and profit nicely along the way, been there done that

my prediction will be for a major property crash in 2007, glad i can wait

[kreon]

SET rally highly likely today, fueled by Baht strenghtening today -- this call repeated in the Baht thread.  US markets' higher close overnight ought to help sentiment here.

Shin is a good bet. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

that's the way the thai's see it, i see it as the thai baht weakening

[Harmonica]

SET rally highly likely today, fueled by Baht strenghtening today -- this call repeated in the Baht thread.  US markets' higher close overnight ought to help sentiment here.

Shin is a good bet. 

that's the way the thai's see it, i see it as the thai baht weakening

Always nice to have my buddy kreon visit and share his bounty with us low wage earners.

kreon, the key word in my statement above is, "today" --- dig?