OldAsiaHand Posted April 1, 2005 Share Posted April 1, 2005 With respect to brokers, might also take a look at Seamico (www.seamico.com). They've made a minor speciality here of dealing with resident expats. No broker will provide you US style service, however, so don't look for it. About the best you can hope for is the execution of your orders more than half the time without screwing them up. Unless you can talk the institutional guys into handling your account, many of whom are foreign, you'll be stuck with a retail broker. They're all Thai and not much more sophisticated than the Thai kids who work at McDonalds. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Utter rubbish! I told you to stop using your left hand, didn't I? You ought to have your bum spanked, salted & umeboshi-plumed for spewing out such torrents of false data! The brokers here provide a level of service that eclipses that offered stateside; and very often here a broker will go out of his/her way to provide hours of one on one indoctrination and methodology for Farangs and Thais. They have this in common, but some are better than others. Top honors goes to Philip Securities in Bangkok, on Silom road. IB Securities, Adkinsons, Kim Eng Securities in Phuket -- Tisco in BKK is also very good. BFIT in BKK is top-notch. My personal rec. would be Kim Eng Securities in any city in LOS. And orders are handled electronically or via Telephone etc. -- I've never had a problem and I've done many, many, many buys/sells. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Utter, utter, utter rubbish. Do I smell a dose of self-interest in the avalance of misinformation above, or is that odor something a little more organic? My oh my, I hope those dolts at Kim Eng are paying you well for all this blatant and inaccurate advertising, old buddy. Still, fellows, mark me well, you buy into this guy's unrestrained touting at your own risk. Thai retail brokers are, on the whole, both ignorant and uneducated. When you deal with American brokers, at least you usually get your choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted April 1, 2005 Share Posted April 1, 2005 Unbeknownst to the sellers there is a battalion of buyers @ 672 Where did the rally start from? 671.28! SET gained another 14+ points today; don't yet have the closing data for today -- will post thoughts on rally continuation (????) later. When she flies she makes Nasdaq look like an old woman! But she can't be shorted! Maybe Lord T will rise to the occasion and make this change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted April 1, 2005 Share Posted April 1, 2005 With respect to brokers, might also take a look at Seamico (www.seamico.com). They've made a minor speciality here of dealing with resident expats. No broker will provide you US style service, however, so don't look for it. About the best you can hope for is the execution of your orders more than half the time without screwing them up. Unless you can talk the institutional guys into handling your account, many of whom are foreign, you'll be stuck with a retail broker. They're all Thai and not much more sophisticated than the Thai kids who work at McDonalds. Utter rubbish! I told you to stop using your left hand, didn't I? You ought to have your bum spanked, salted & umeboshi-plumed for spewing out such torrents of false data! The brokers here provide a level of service that eclipses that offered stateside; and very often here a broker will go out of his/her way to provide hours of one on one indoctrination and methodology for Farangs and Thais. They have this in common, but some are better than others. Top honors goes to Philip Securities in Bangkok, on Silom road. IB Securities, Adkinsons, Kim Eng Securities in Phuket -- Tisco in BKK is also very good. BFIT in BKK is top-notch. My personal rec. would be Kim Eng Securities in any city in LOS. And orders are handled electronically or via Telephone etc. -- I've never had a problem and I've done many, many, many buys/sells. Utter, utter, utter rubbish. Do I smell a dose of self-interest in the avalance of misinformation above, or is that odor something a little more organic? My oh my, I hope those dolts at Kim Eng are paying you well for all this blatant and inaccurate advertising, old buddy. Still, fellows, mark me well, you buy into this guy's unrestrained touting at your own risk. Thai retail brokers are, on the whole, both ignorant and uneducated. When you deal with American brokers, at least you usually get your choice. Hehehehe, amigo -- can't say I blame you for being so mad at me; I'd be as ticked off as you if somebody stuck a salted umeboshi plum up my ass! Or, are you just upset that I didn't mention Seamico? come on now, be a good boy and give us some of your insights! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bangkokian Posted April 1, 2005 Share Posted April 1, 2005 baht tends to weaken with the dollar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtfulD Posted April 1, 2005 Share Posted April 1, 2005 (edited) I wouldnt exactly say there is a overly strong relation to the Baht and SET index, looking at the overlay below SET (In black) Baht (In Gold).... Can see some large swings in the SET in 2004 with the Baht moving only slightly, then the Baht strengthening as the USD falls at the end of 2004 like the price of gold, much of it is simply the USD movement being reflected. In this next one USD index (In Black) SET (In purple) THB (In Gold) shows the THB is moving in relation to the USD index and the SET is moving on its own accord. Especially noticable is the first couple of months this year where the THB has not moved hardly at all but the SET continued to make new highs. Now the SET has fallen off some, but the THB is matching the USD more than the SET. There is some relation at certain points I concede, but, wouldnt call it a good indicator for SET movement. Edited April 1, 2005 by ArtfulD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabaijai Posted April 2, 2005 Author Share Posted April 2, 2005 Any experts out there on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)? If so any predictions for short to medium-term (3-5 years) returns? I'm eyeing a SET index fund at the moment, knowing I don't have the time to research each and every listed company and knowing the leaders will pull the market along, as with similar index funds elsewhere.Finally any recos for a Bangkok broker? Have you opened your account, Sabaijai? How have you been doing in the market? Did you buy the Index Fund you were contemplating? If you like I can arrange for an introduction to Khun Chatchai at Philip Securities in Bangkok. He will fix you up and guide you well. He, IMHO is the best Tech. man in LOS. He gave me a tip once on a stock called Tisco -- Lead turned into Gold within 48 hours and kept on exponentializing! No I haven't opened an account yet, been busy but would like to get going soon. I found the website for Philip Securities and will be giving them a call. I can try K Chatchai if you have a phone number for him. Thanks. (02)635-3123 is Khun Chatchai's # -- not a direct line, so just ask for him by name. Sooner or later you're going to bump into the intersection, "Fundamental or Technical" -- while you're deciding, Mr. C can keep you in the "green" -- goodluck! Thanks much, I'll give him a call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted April 2, 2005 Share Posted April 2, 2005 baht tends to weaken with the dollar. That has got to be the most assinine, hovine, bovine statement I've ever heard! But the night is still young, maybe the next fella, Artful D will top this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted April 2, 2005 Share Posted April 2, 2005 bangkokian & ArtfulD, A twofer -- one bullet for 2 kills -- you 2 cats have got to be the worst bounty hunters in existence! I met 3 similar dusters a few years ago; they were waiting on a train; inside the dusters were 3 men; inside the men were 3 bullets! Do I gots to do all da woyrk here? We shall take ArtfulD first: Refer to the chart below for visual clarity -- here is where you took bounty hunting to a new plateau -- when SET rises it goes north on the chart. right? Are you with me so far? When it rises it means it is strong. Right? With me still? OK, then if it goes down, it means it is going south, which therefore by inference means it is getting weaker. Right? This is all very elementary. With me still? OK then, let's talk about the Baht. Here we are talking about Baht per USD, which is represented mathematically as Baht/$. So far, so good! The problem here and I believe what confused you 2 jokers is that when Baht rises on the chart, it is getting WEAKER; when it goes down or south on the chart, it means it is getting STRONGER ! This depiction is exactly the opposite concept of the SET Index (or anything else for that matter) on its chart. Therefore to see their correlation, one has to invert the Baht chart. When one inverts the Baht chart and then superimposes that on the SET chart, one gets a CLEAR picture of what I was talking about! See below -- the Baht chart is on top and has been inverted as per the scaling on the right hand side. Both charts still retain their logarithmic scaling. No trendlines or any other tech. items are shown; dig it mahn, let's have some rum! Twins, twins, twins twins ........ hehehehehehhehehe .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtfulD Posted April 2, 2005 Share Posted April 2, 2005 (edited) You have a number of years more history than my data which shows stronger correlation I admit, but I stand by my chart in showing a weaker correlation over the past year and the THB/USD having a stronger relation than the SET/THB. I FULLY understand charting and I was NOT confused by the chart directions I understand the inversion that is there however I am able to make judgement on the chart without the need to invert the prices. And Harmonica quite frankly I find your arrogance and ego for the umpteenth time to be shown as completely over the top. If I had had the extra years data then I would not have made the post that I did as the extended view shows a lot more correlation, however I find the way you talked down to me and your other posts in general to be extremely anoying. Edited April 2, 2005 by ArtfulD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thaiaan Posted April 2, 2005 Share Posted April 2, 2005 You have a number of years more history than my data which shows stronger correlation I admit, but I stand by my chart in showing a weaker correlation over the past year and the THB/USD having a stronger relation than the SET/THB. I FULLY understand charting and I was NOT confused by the chart directions I understand the inversion that is there however I am able to make judgement on the chart without the need to invert the prices. And Harmonica quite frankly I find your arrogance and ego for the umpteenth time to be shown as completely over the top. If I had had the extra years data then I would not have made the post that I did as the extended view shows a lot more correlation, however I find the way you talked down to me and your other posts in general to be extremely anoying. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Well, with him losing what little money he has on his outlandish speculations one has to expect his hostility. Just don't invite him to your cocktail parties even as the busboy his public high school and community college educations prepared him for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldAsiaHand Posted April 3, 2005 Share Posted April 3, 2005 I have it on good authority that he flunked out of community college. Some problem about all his assignments being inverted, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted April 3, 2005 Share Posted April 3, 2005 I have it on good authority that he flunked out of community college. Some problem about all his assignments being inverted, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted April 3, 2005 Share Posted April 3, 2005 You have a number of years more history than my data which shows stronger correlation I admit, but I stand by my chart in showing a weaker correlation over the past year and the THB/USD having a stronger relation than the SET/THB. I FULLY understand charting and I was NOT confused by the chart directions I understand the inversion that is there however I am able to make judgement on the chart without the need to invert the prices. And Harmonica quite frankly I find your arrogance and ego for the umpteenth time to be shown as completely over the top. If I had had the extra years data then I would not have made the post that I did as the extended view shows a lot more correlation, however I find the way you talked down to me and your other posts in general to be extremely anoying. OK then, how about 6 months' data? You definitely have at least that, I presume? Here's a daily chart. By the way, if you are in Bangkok, go visit Tisco Securities and ask to speak to the Head of the Research Department -- Anant Tantuvanich -- then ask him to give you a set of copies of his Bangkok Post articles over the years that show the "incredible" correlation of the Baht (inverse) & SET Index. There are charts, but you should read the research notes, all documented with time, place, form and event. Very nicely done. I had my own collection, but alas, its gone missing in my move to CM from Phuket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted April 3, 2005 Share Posted April 3, 2005 You have a number of years more history than my data which shows stronger correlation I admit, but I stand by my chart in showing a weaker correlation over the past year and the THB/USD having a stronger relation than the SET/THB. I FULLY understand charting and I was NOT confused by the chart directions I understand the inversion that is there however I am able to make judgement on the chart without the need to invert the prices. And Harmonica quite frankly I find your arrogance and ego for the umpteenth time to be shown as completely over the top. If I had had the extra years data then I would not have made the post that I did as the extended view shows a lot more correlation, however I find the way you talked down to me and your other posts in general to be extremely anoying. Well, with him losing what little money he has on his outlandish speculations one has to expect his hostility. Just don't invite him to your cocktail parties even as the busboy his public high school and community college educations prepared him for. Did I make an unclean getaway? Is that's what's bothering you, doll? Come on girlie, let's kiss and makeup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtfulD Posted April 3, 2005 Share Posted April 3, 2005 Yes I do see a correlation, as I mentioned in my post at points, however I didnt see it as strongly as what you seemed to indicate due to certain points of flatish THB movement and higher SET movement. However after seeing the charts of your data extending much further than mine (inverted or not ) then Id be blind to suggest little correlation as quite obviously its far stronger when looked at over a number of years. I am not in Bangkok atm, however I do not trade SET or THB (bar having an interest in THB for transfer of funds but not actively trading), so although the lack of historical data provided by E-Signal for both is anoying, its not detrimental to me. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted April 3, 2005 Share Posted April 3, 2005 You have a number of years more history than my data which shows stronger correlation I admit, but I stand by my chart in showing a weaker correlation over the past year and the THB/USD having a stronger relation than the SET/THB. I FULLY understand charting and I was NOT confused by the chart directions I understand the inversion that is there however I am able to make judgement on the chart without the need to invert the prices. And Harmonica quite frankly I find your arrogance and ego for the umpteenth time to be shown as completely over the top. If I had had the extra years data then I would not have made the post that I did as the extended view shows a lot more correlation, however I find the way you talked down to me and your other posts in general to be extremely anoying. About the US dollar Index and Baht -- the Dollar Index is a weighted basket of prominent currencies in which the Baht is NOT included. The Baht is actually Baht divided by the dollar (for our purposes). By definition, the Baht and the dollar are a currency pair, so when one goes up the other goes down. Doing a comparison against the USD Index is adding a whole lot of other currencies into the picture -- meaningless excercise. Trading pairs are Dollar/Yen, Dollar/Euro, Dollar/Baht etc., etc., If you want to see the ultimate positive correlation, check out SET Index and SET/Baht (i.e. SET divided by Baht) ... see below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted April 3, 2005 Share Posted April 3, 2005 Yes I do see a correlation, as I mentioned in my post at points, however I didnt see it as strongly as what you seemed to indicate due to certain points of flatish THB movement and higher SET movement. However after seeing the charts of your data extending much further than mine (inverted or not ) then Id be blind to suggest little correlation as quite obviously its far stronger when looked at over a number of years. I am not in Bangkok atm, however I do not trade SET or THB (bar having an interest in THB for transfer of funds but not actively trading), so although the lack of historical data provided by E-Signal for both is anoying, its not detrimental to me.Thanks. Thanks for the update. Just a note of clarification about "certain points of flatish THB movement and higher SET movement" When looking for correlation, it does not have to be an exact match (=100%) -- even 75% is excellent for trading purposes. When making a judgement in the "flatish" zones one should look at whether there are higher highs (even slightly) or lower Lows (again even slightly) -- that is enough to suggest that the slope of the former is impacting the slope of the latter (or vice versa). For 4,000 Baht per year, you'd have Thai Baht (20 yrs history), Yen, Sing $, Euro, HK$, USD, all US Indices, SET Index (30 yr history) with its 400+ stocks and a whole lot of other stuff, directly from the sources (New York Stock Exchange, STock EXc of thailand etc.,) thru' Philip Securities. That's $100/year = $8/month. ESignal is $160/month, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtfulD Posted April 3, 2005 Share Posted April 3, 2005 That post is most informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtfulD Posted April 3, 2005 Share Posted April 3, 2005 What is the website for Philip Securities? Google didnt throw up any main page for them...$8 seems an amazingly low price if it really offers such live data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted April 3, 2005 Share Posted April 3, 2005 What is the website for Philip Securities? Google didnt throw up any main page for them...$8 seems an amazingly low price if it really offers such live data. Go to http://www.poems.co.th click "Scoreboard" in the lower left hand corner and follow the links. Contact person, Khun. Chatchai runs the entire Research & Technical divisions -- also happens to be one of the best tech. men in LOS. Goodluck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted April 11, 2005 Share Posted April 11, 2005 When SET50 Index crosses the trendline to the right of the graph below, enter LONG. Not now; wait for a daily chart close above the line first, then for 2 days nibble and if the market is moving in your favor, go big. Another signal to confirm this will be if Baht drops below 39.50 But wait until the signal is flashed! Right now there is NO entry! If all this fails to occur, continue to do nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted April 12, 2005 Share Posted April 12, 2005 All intraday positions closed! Long holiday coming up. I'm not thrilled with the low volume and the fact that Baht might continue on higher (weaker) next week -- if this occurs there will be a mini-crash in SET. So even though it appears we have a breakout, I'm selling! I could be wrong, but if so, its never too late to enter on Monday next week if the direction so warrants. Adios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted April 18, 2005 Share Posted April 18, 2005 All intraday positions closed! Long holiday coming up. I'm not thrilled with the low volume and the fact that Baht might continue on higher (weaker) next week -- if this occurs there will be a mini-crash in SET. So even though it appears we have a breakout, I'm selling! I could be wrong, but if so, its never too late to enter on Monday next week if the direction so warrants. Adios Its 9:45 AM Monday -- 15 minutes to market open. I can't watch the open as I have to leave for town, but ... Baht is up @ 39.74 and it looks like its trying to take out the overhead resistance. If it succeeds SET will nosedive. That's the caution So for the next hour or so, till I get back, I'm staying out of the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted April 18, 2005 Share Posted April 18, 2005 All intraday positions closed! Long holiday coming up. I'm not thrilled with the low volume and the fact that Baht might continue on higher (weaker) next week -- if this occurs there will be a mini-crash in SET. So even though it appears we have a breakout, I'm selling! I could be wrong, but if so, its never too late to enter on Monday next week if the direction so warrants. Adios Its 9:45 AM Monday -- 15 minutes to market open. I can't watch the open as I have to leave for town, but ... Baht is up @ 39.74 and it looks like its trying to take out the overhead resistance. If it succeeds SET will nosedive. That's the caution So for the next hour or so, till I get back, I'm staying out of the market. Slamdunk! The market wiped out 92% of the gains of last week in 20 seconds flat! So was my cautionary note justified or what? And critics, anticipating your BS about how the US markets' -ve performance last week guarantees the drop on SET -- b*llsh*it! SET has bucked the stateside trend 40-55% of the time and goes off on its own -- so this factor is a non-factor! Over & out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted April 18, 2005 Share Posted April 18, 2005 Make that 96% ..... and climbing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted April 29, 2005 Share Posted April 29, 2005 Bye amigos. Last post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmonica Posted July 7, 2005 Share Posted July 7, 2005 This thread got lost .... almost! I'll be damned if I'm going to let it disappear, especially after all the slamdunks! You too would be wise to not let it disappear -- SET has the potential to make Nasdaq look like a wimp. When she goes, she's just stunning to watch! But she is stunning going both directions, i.e. north or south. "North" releases endorphins. "South" releases torrents of cholesterol into the bloodstream! At 4:24 PM local LOS time she is down some 20 points for today. That's a whopper of a loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sabaijai Posted July 14, 2005 Author Share Posted July 14, 2005 I'm getting back into the thread I started after quite awhile. Hey it looks like no one ever answered my original question, i.e., is buying a SET Index Fund a good idea with a horizon of 8-10 years? Possible longer. I don't have time to research individual stocks and besides, everything I've read on the subject says even the most tech-savvy analysts rarely match, much less beat, the stock market average in the long run. But I think I probably explained my philosophy on that in the beginning. Has anyone out there invested in or studied one of the SET index funds? I'm looking at one offered by SCB. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khun Larry Posted July 14, 2005 Share Posted July 14, 2005 ...I think thailand have learn the '97 lesson and they sorted out pretty good....<{POST_SNAPBACK}> LOL For sure Thailand has learned exactly nothing and will repeat their mistakes. Thais know everything so they cannot learn more. Conservation of knowledge... can not exceed 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
h90 Posted July 15, 2005 Share Posted July 15, 2005 lol fully agree! I am not on the stock market, but I move my bahts out to USD and Euros..... i have the strong feeling our lovely leader is only making short time politics, which ends in a big crash..... ...I think thailand have learn the '97 lesson and they sorted out pretty good....<{POST_SNAPBACK}> LOL For sure Thailand has learned exactly nothing and will repeat their mistakes. Thais know everything so they cannot learn more. Conservation of knowledge... can not exceed 100%. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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