Baht-uk Pound

[chiang mai]

Chang Mai can you point to a specific period when the £ was at 107% of its true value please?

I am not disagreeing but would be interested on that figure to work out its true value at the time at 100%

see the post #118 above and the attachment therein. Jan 08 as I recall but may be wrong. Also, if you want to work out the 100% value there is a formula on Wiki to do that - just google Sterling trade weighted value.

Edited May 28, 2009 by chiang mai

[Merangue]

Chang Mai can you point to a specific period when the £ was at 107% of its true value please?

I am not disagreeing but would be interested on that figure to work out its true value at the time at 100%

see the post #118 above and the attachment therein. Jan 08 as I recall but may be wrong. Also, if you want to work out the 100% value there is a formula on Wiki to do that - just google Sterling trade weighted value.

Ok the rate on the ground at the end of january 2008 was 65 baht rounded. 100% instead of 107% of that would put Sterling at 61 baht rounded.

This figure of 61 baht just so happens to be 1 baht higher than the estimated predictions of a number of us. I personally thik it will stabilise long term around the 58 to 62 region.

Now considering the Credit crunch is global and even if i agree that the UK is worst off of the lot ( i do not agree for what it is worth) why do you think that the pound will return to a figure of 35-40 baht?

You are effectively stating that the UK pound is going to lose approximately 40% of its true value against all other currencies over a period of 11 years. Do you not consider this to be a bit too much? Given the fact that every other country is at least suffering, even if not quite as bad (again that is not my view as i do not think the UK is finished quite yet).

[HardenedSoul]

Britain's finances are indeed a mess, but the economy is no worse than the rest of Europe and the United States -- and housing is even picking up speed.

That's so much drivel. Look at it this way . . . sure, the banks lent a little more money to buyers who need to buy a property but, as the property boom in the UK was fuelled mostly by those who believed that property values moved in one direction only, there is no way on this green earth that prices are going to stop falling. Guaranteed.

The "recovery" that seems to have worked all the usual suspects up into a lather is an obvious - and very dangerous - false dawn. I know that Mommysboy doesn't set as much store by this as I do but I just can't get past why, why, WHY the FSA and the Treasury are covering up the results of those frikkin' stress tests or why the fact hasn't been more widely publicized.

Furthermore - and this is intended for Mommysboy - after all the lies and deception this government has fed us since the start of this crisis, how can you believe that there isn't something seriously, gravely and ominously disturbing about the non-disclosure of those results ? As I said before, even the Americans released theirs.

Frankly, I don't trust the Government at all and I've converted the last few grand I had left in sterling into Canadian dollars. If I'm wrong and the banks are all tickety-boo then I'll put my hands up and crawl back into sterling a few quid down . . . . but I don't think I am

[mommysboy]

Britain's finances are indeed a mess, but the economy is no worse than the rest of Europe and the United States -- and housing is even picking up speed.

That's so much drivel. Look at it this way . . . sure, the banks lent a little more money to buyers who need to buy a property but, as the property boom in the UK was fuelled mostly by those who believed that property values moved in one direction only, there is no way on this green earth that prices are going to stop falling. Guaranteed.

The "recovery" that seems to have worked all the usual suspects up into a lather is an obvious - and very dangerous - false dawn. I know that Mommysboy doesn't set as much store by this as I do but I just can't get past why, why, WHY the FSA and the Treasury are covering up the results of those frikkin' stress tests or why the fact hasn't been more widely publicized.

Furthermore - and this is intended for Mommysboy - after all the lies and deception this government has fed us since the start of this crisis, how can you believe that there isn't something seriously, gravely and ominously disturbing about the non-disclosure of those results ? As I said before, even the Americans released theirs.

Frankly, I don't trust the Government at all and I've converted the last few grand I had left in sterling into Canadian dollars. If I'm wrong and the banks are all tickety-boo then I'll put my hands up and crawl back into sterling a few quid down . . . . but I don't think I am

Well for me, it is just the fact that this happened a few months ago and really the results have been superceded by the bail out that actually happened, and the subsequent Q1 results. Also, they had a stricter criteria than the US. But the markets are the judge and usually they judge harshly, yet the shares have not been effected it seems. It's old news HS, and trumped up in my view.

But I'm a bit mystified as to what you make of me, Im not getting caught up with this green shoots nonsense , I'm just seeing things the way I see them, I don't represent the banks and actually am quite happy to see a housing slump and don't believe they've bottomed out yet, obscene prices in my view. It's just that I don't see the same conspiracy you do or the same financial Armeggeddon for the UK, unless this is also applied to the rest of the world. I'm 48, this is my view of the 3rd or is it 4th recession I've lived through.

I wouldn't get too wrapped up in the housing market either as in the 88 crash the economy recovered long b4 house prices started going upwards again. Or the facts that governments lie, they all do my friend, they have to because otherwise people would vote for the other party.

You seem to think I am naive, as I've pointed out this will be my 4th recession. Frankly, I think you've cashed in too early, but not disasterously so.

[mommysboy]

HS : From The Times

Financial regulators revealed today that they were testing how British banks would cope if unemployment hit 3.7 million, house prices halved and the recession lasted another one and a half years.

The doomsday scenario was revealed by the Financial Services Authority (FSA), which said that it was modelling how such a prolonged slump would affect banks' balance-sheet strength.

The FSA scenario was not meant to reflect the regulators' view of the most likely economic outcome, but was designed to test how the banks would cope if confronted with the worse recession since the Second World War.

The key assumptions in the stress test were that the economy shrank by 6 per cent from peak to trough, with growth not returning until 2011 and trend growth not returning till 2012.

function slideshowPopUp(url){pictureGalleryPopupPic(url);return false;}<H3 class=section-heading>The regulators also assumed unemployment rising to 12 per cent, or 3.7 million people, which is 1.5 million more people than are currently jobless and would be a higher level of unemployment than in the recession of the early 1980s. </H3>Finally, they looked at what would happen if house prices fell by 50 per cent from their peak and commercial property prices fell by 60 per cent. So far, residential property prices have fallen by about 19 per cent from their peak in the autumn of 2007. Under the doomsday scenario, the FSA looks at the average house price falling from £186,000 to £93,000.

The FSA, which has received a Freedom of Information request for more information on its stress testing, said that it would not be publishing details of test results on individual banks. Its use of stress tests was not a one-off exercise but was "embedded in our regular supervisory processes".

The FSA used its stress test before allowing Barclays to avoid having to raise any further fresh capital this year. It also applied the tests to Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group as a condition of their participation in the Asset Protection Scheme, a measure giving them protection against losses on hundreds of billions of pounds of toxic loans and investments.

So there's the latest take from the Times HS. Note I highlighted the piece in red. I think it's more about preventing undue volatility. As evidenced on this website, before long people would be assuming the worst is going to happen and quoting the figures as an FSA prediction.

[mommysboy]

HS : From The Times

Financial regulators revealed today that they were testing how British banks would cope if unemployment hit 3.7 million, house prices halved and the recession lasted another one and a half years.

The doomsday scenario was revealed by the Financial Services Authority (FSA), which said that it was modelling how such a prolonged slump would affect banks' balance-sheet strength.

The FSA scenario was not meant to reflect the regulators' view of the most likely economic outcome, but was designed to test how the banks would cope if confronted with the worse recession since the Second World War.

The key assumptions in the stress test were that the economy shrank by 6 per cent from peak to trough, with growth not returning until 2011 and trend growth not returning till 2012.

function slideshowPopUp(url){pictureGalleryPopupPic(url);return false;}<H3 class=section-heading>The regulators also assumed unemployment rising to 12 per cent, or 3.7 million people, which is 1.5 million more people than are currently jobless and would be a higher level of unemployment than in the recession of the early 1980s. </H3>Finally, they looked at what would happen if house prices fell by 50 per cent from their peak and commercial property prices fell by 60 per cent. So far, residential property prices have fallen by about 19 per cent from their peak in the autumn of 2007. Under the doomsday scenario, the FSA looks at the average house price falling from £186,000 to £93,000.

The FSA, which has received a Freedom of Information request for more information on its stress testing, said that it would not be publishing details of test results on individual banks. Its use of stress tests was not a one-off exercise but was "embedded in our regular supervisory processes".

The FSA used its stress test before allowing Barclays to avoid having to raise any further fresh capital this year. It also applied the tests to Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group as a condition of their participation in the Asset Protection Scheme, a measure giving them protection against losses on hundreds of billions of pounds of toxic loans and investments.

So there's the latest take from the Times HS. Note I highlighted the piece in red. I think it's more about preventing undue volatility. As evidenced on this website, before long people would be assuming the worst is going to happen and quoting the figures as an FSA prediction.

[mommysboy]

HS : From The Times

Financial regulators revealed today that they were testing how British banks would cope if unemployment hit 3.7 million, house prices halved and the recession lasted another one and a half years.

The doomsday scenario was revealed by the Financial Services Authority (FSA), which said that it was modelling how such a prolonged slump would affect banks' balance-sheet strength.

The FSA scenario was not meant to reflect the regulators' view of the most likely economic outcome, but was designed to test how the banks would cope if confronted with the worse recession since the Second World War.

The key assumptions in the stress test were that the economy shrank by 6 per cent from peak to trough, with growth not returning until 2011 and trend growth not returning till 2012.

function slideshowPopUp(url){pictureGalleryPopupPic(url);return false;}<H3 class=section-heading>The regulators also assumed unemployment rising to 12 per cent, or 3.7 million people, which is 1.5 million more people than are currently jobless and would be a higher level of unemployment than in the recession of the early 1980s. </H3>Finally, they looked at what would happen if house prices fell by 50 per cent from their peak and commercial property prices fell by 60 per cent. So far, residential property prices have fallen by about 19 per cent from their peak in the autumn of 2007. Under the doomsday scenario, the FSA looks at the average house price falling from £186,000 to £93,000.

The FSA, which has received a Freedom of Information request for more information on its stress testing, said that it would not be publishing details of test results on individual banks. Its use of stress tests was not a one-off exercise but was "embedded in our regular supervisory processes".

The FSA used its stress test before allowing Barclays to avoid having to raise any further fresh capital this year. It also applied the tests to Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group as a condition of their participation in the Asset Protection Scheme, a measure giving them protection against losses on hundreds of billions of pounds of toxic loans and investments.

So there's the latest take from the Times HS. Note I highlighted the piece in red. I think it's more about preventing undue volatility. As evidenced on this website, before long people would be assuming the worst is going to happen and quoting the figures as an FSA prediction.

[chiang mai]

Chang Mai can you point to a specific period when the £ was at 107% of its true value please?

I am not disagreeing but would be interested on that figure to work out its true value at the time at 100%

see the post #118 above and the attachment therein. Jan 08 as I recall but may be wrong. Also, if you want to work out the 100% value there is a formula on Wiki to do that - just google Sterling trade weighted value.

Ok the rate on the ground at the end of january 2008 was 65 baht rounded. 100% instead of 107% of that would put Sterling at 61 baht rounded.

This figure of 61 baht just so happens to be 1 baht higher than the estimated predictions of a number of us. I personally thik it will stabilise long term around the 58 to 62 region.

Now considering the Credit crunch is global and even if i agree that the UK is worst off of the lot ( i do not agree for what it is worth) why do you think that the pound will return to a figure of 35-40 baht?

You are effectively stating that the UK pound is going to lose approximately 40% of its true value against all other currencies over a period of 11 years. Do you not consider this to be a bit too much? Given the fact that every other country is at least suffering, even if not quite as bad (again that is not my view as i do not think the UK is finished quite yet).

A couple of points:

You do realize of course that the GBP/THB exchange rate is a function of USD/THB and GBP/USD and that in FOREX market terms GBP/THB doesn't really exist per se?

I'm afraid that adjusting a trade weight of 107% by knocking off 7% and relating that back to unadjusted currency ratio's at the time achieves nothing other than to further distort the view - currencies do not move in the same exact percentage terms against each other so by saying I'll knock a bit off here and add it in over there does not give a reliable result. If things were that simple we'd all be millionaires courtesy of the Forex market but unfortunately life is not that simple.

I have never said the UK is finished, all I have said is that the longer term rate against THB could easily reach 35/40 over the next seven to ten years. I also do not believe the UK is the worst off of all countries, clearly Ireland, Iceland, Spain etc are in worse shape - but the UK does sit in the bottom 20%.

Edited May 29, 2009 by chiang mai

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

http://forecasts.org/pound.htm

US Dollar to UK Pound Currency Exchange Forecast

U.S. Dollars per one British Pound. Average of Month.

Month Date Forecast

Value 50%

Correct +/- 80%

Correct +/-

0 Apr 2009 1.473 0.00 0.00

1 May 2009 1.52 0.06 0.13

2 Jun 2009 1.54 0.07 0.17

3 Jul 2009 1.58 0.08 0.19

4 Aug 2009 1.50 0.09 0.20

5 Sep 2009 1.44 0.10 0.22

6 Oct 2009 1.40 0.10 0.23

7 Nov 2009 1.35 0.11 0.24

8 Dec 2009 1.36 0.11 0.25

Updated Wednesday, May 13, 2009

All forecasts are provided AS IS, and FFC disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.

[chiang mai]

http://forecasts.org/pound.htm

US Dollar to UK Pound Currency Exchange Forecast

U.S. Dollars per one British Pound. Average of Month.

Month Date Forecast

Value 50%

Correct +/- 80%

Correct +/-

0 Apr 2009 1.473 0.00 0.00

1 May 2009 1.52 0.06 0.13

2 Jun 2009 1.54 0.07 0.17

3 Jul 2009 1.58 0.08 0.19

4 Aug 2009 1.50 0.09 0.20

5 Sep 2009 1.44 0.10 0.22

6 Oct 2009 1.40 0.10 0.23

7 Nov 2009 1.35 0.11 0.24

8 Dec 2009 1.36 0.11 0.25

Updated Wednesday, May 13, 2009

All forecasts are provided AS IS, and FFC disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.

Hmm, I'm not sure what to make of that. If I look at December I see there is the potential for (corrected) GBP/USD (1.35 minus 10%) to reach a worst case of 1.22 which implies a GBP/THB rate of 40.8 all things being equal. But all things are not equal so I won't go there! But clearly, using those numbers the GBP/THB rate will be much closer to 40 than to 60 it seems.

[chiang mai]

Britain's finances are indeed a mess, but the economy is no worse than the rest of Europe and the United States -- and housing is even picking up speed.

That's so much drivel. Look at it this way . . . sure, the banks lent a little more money to buyers who need to buy a property but, as the property boom in the UK was fuelled mostly by those who believed that property values moved in one direction only, there is no way on this green earth that prices are going to stop falling. Guaranteed.

The "recovery" that seems to have worked all the usual suspects up into a lather is an obvious - and very dangerous - false dawn. I know that Mommysboy doesn't set as much store by this as I do but I just can't get past why, why, WHY the FSA and the Treasury are covering up the results of those frikkin' stress tests or why the fact hasn't been more widely publicized.

Furthermore - and this is intended for Mommysboy - after all the lies and deception this government has fed us since the start of this crisis, how can you believe that there isn't something seriously, gravely and ominously disturbing about the non-disclosure of those results ? As I said before, even the Americans released theirs.

Frankly, I don't trust the Government at all and I've converted the last few grand I had left in sterling into Canadian dollars. If I'm wrong and the banks are all tickety-boo then I'll put my hands up and crawl back into sterling a few quid down . . . . but I don't think I am

as I've pointed out this will be my 4th recession.

1929 - 1934

1979 - 1983

1989 - 1992

2008 - ?

You're at least 75 years old Mommysboy, you surprise me!

[mommysboy]

Britain's finances are indeed a mess, but the economy is no worse than the rest of Europe and the United States -- and housing is even picking up speed.

That's so much drivel. Look at it this way . . . sure, the banks lent a little more money to buyers who need to buy a property but, as the property boom in the UK was fuelled mostly by those who believed that property values moved in one direction only, there is no way on this green earth that prices are going to stop falling. Guaranteed.

The "recovery" that seems to have worked all the usual suspects up into a lather is an obvious - and very dangerous - false dawn. I know that Mommysboy doesn't set as much store by this as I do but I just can't get past why, why, WHY the FSA and the Treasury are covering up the results of those frikkin' stress tests or why the fact hasn't been more widely publicized.

Furthermore - and this is intended for Mommysboy - after all the lies and deception this government has fed us since the start of this crisis, how can you believe that there isn't something seriously, gravely and ominously disturbing about the non-disclosure of those results ? As I said before, even the Americans released theirs.

Frankly, I don't trust the Government at all and I've converted the last few grand I had left in sterling into Canadian dollars. If I'm wrong and the banks are all tickety-boo then I'll put my hands up and crawl back into sterling a few quid down . . . . but I don't think I am

as I've pointed out this will be my 4th recession.

1929 - 1934

1979 - 1983

1989 - 1992

2008 - ?

You're at least 75 years old Mommysboy, you surprise me!

3rd. I always get mixed up because of Britain had a kind of double recession in the 70's and early 80's, truly miserable times.

[citizen33]

Some of the UK papers are carrying a story today giving more informaton from the FSA on the stress tests. A lot depends on the spin put on the figures - but 'cause for some concern' rather than cataclysmic seems about right. Basically the FSA predicts that the banks would need more capital if GDP fell more than 6% (compare around 4% predicted) or the housing market contracted by more than 50%. At the moment most economists do not believe things will get that bad.

[chiang mai]

Some of the UK papers are carrying a story today giving more informaton from the FSA on the stress tests. A lot depends on the spin put on the figures - but 'cause for some concern' rather than cataclysmic seems about right. Basically the FSA predicts that the banks would need more capital if GDP fell more than 6% (compare around 4% predicted) or the housing market contracted by more than 50%. At the moment most economists do not believe things will get that bad.

Where are we now, a 22% drop from peak prices in the housing market with economists forecasting a further 10% fall? Even that's going to put a serious dent in the mortgage books of most financial institutions, a 50% fall would be devastating I would guess.

Actually, in this article the forecast is for a further 14% fall pushing the total to near 40%, scary.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...pc-by-2010.html

Edited May 29, 2009 by chiang mai

[HardenedSoul]

Some of the UK papers are carrying a story today giving more informaton from the FSA on the stress tests. A lot depends on the spin put on the figures - but 'cause for some concern' rather than cataclysmic seems about right. Basically the FSA predicts that the banks would need more capital if GDP fell more than 6% (compare around 4% predicted) or the housing market contracted by more than 50%. At the moment most economists do not believe things will get that bad.

Hmmm . . . I seem to recall broad consensus among economists that the UK housing market would pause , stagnate and then take off to the stratosphere again.

As I explained in a previous post, when the market forces the BoE to raise interest rates, a lot more inventory will find its way onto the housing market.

We need to accept - we cannot avoid this inevitability. We either ignore the imminent gilt strike and expand quantitative easing to buy more gilts and keep interest rates artificially low but in doing so, pile on inflationary pressure which forces us to raise rates anyway to prevent the collapse of the currency OR we let the market have its way and jack up rates to keep them interested in buying gilts.

One way or the other, rates are headed upwards as are unemployment and the price of a gallon of petrol.

[chiang mai]

Some of the UK papers are carrying a story today giving more informaton from the FSA on the stress tests. A lot depends on the spin put on the figures - but 'cause for some concern' rather than cataclysmic seems about right. Basically the FSA predicts that the banks would need more capital if GDP fell more than 6% (compare around 4% predicted) or the housing market contracted by more than 50%. At the moment most economists do not believe things will get that bad.

Hmmm . . . I seem to recall broad consensus among economists that the UK housing market would pause , stagnate and then take off to the stratosphere again.

Only if deflation takes hold first? Following deflation, the model suggests that inflation would cause all asset prices to rise sharply, including real estate - the impact of that on currencies is not clear to me, certainly GBP would provide a greater yield hence it would strengthen blah blah, BUT, there IS a ceiling and "stability" somewhere!

About time for the other "experts" to dive in here, at your leisure.

[churchill]

the pound now well over 1.61

Does this mean anything to the experts out there ?

Thai forward baht commitments $6.1 bln on May 22

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30993887

[chiang mai]

the pound now well over 1.61

Does this mean anything to the experts out there ?

Thai forward baht commitments $6.1 bln on May 22

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30993887

LRB has some idea's but he's not saying, odd that, perhaps if we all prod him a little bit he might give us a clue or two?

[churchill]

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/ar...17-44fca57f6802

Forex: GBP/USD: Pound above 1.6100, fresh 6-month high

Fri, May 29 2009, 09:47 GMT

[mommysboy]

We've endlessly chewed the cud over the fragilities of the pound and the soundness of the UK banking sector, but this week the spotlight turned on the the Thai banking system. My take (just that) is that there are now significant domestic impairments and questions over the central bank's ability to provide support if needed. It would appear that the Govt is trying to raise an astonishingly high sum by Thai standards in difficult times and of course with a troubled political situation. Could be off to the IMF once again or paying top dollar otherwise. So IMHO we should not discount the possibility of a collapse in the bt which many regard as overvalued anyway. I hadn't realised things were so bad, but it just shows what can happen, and to some extent self inflicted. Alternatively, it could be a scare story much in line with those against UK. Anybody else got any ideas.

[ChiangMaiFun]

At the end of the day... when all's said and done most people were predicting a constant fall of GBP/THB when it was 49/50/51 and it has risen (phoenix like) to 55 - someone actually suggested to me to transfer anywhere near 50 as that's was the peak - I held off and did so at 54 ish (still below today's peak) and gained 100,000s (mostly luck I know)

I'd like to know what the current predictions are? more gains? or falls? one thing this has proved to me (the obvious) that no one but no one has a clue...

[chiang mai]

I bought at 54.4 and I'm surprised to see 55, hope we see higher still but I doubt it, 54 was my magic number, maybe my wand is wonkey although Mrs CM assures me it's just fine!

[Merangue]

My guestimate is that it will hover around this figure until late Summer/Autumn and then gain a couple more baht. I would think 58 is a viable figure. It is remotely possible it will reach 60 in Octoberish but i am not as confident of that as i would like to be.

Anyway that is what i said a couple of months ago (55 in may and 58-60 in late summer) so i will stick to it.

[mommysboy]

My guestimate is that it will hover around this figure until late Summer/Autumn and then gain a couple more baht. I would think 58 is a viable figure. It is remotely possible it will reach 60 in Octoberish but i am not as confident of that as i would like to be.

Anyway that is what i said a couple of months ago (55 in may and 58-60 in late summer) so i will stick to it.

I'd go along with that, it's pretty much what I think. The only proviso being the question mark over the Thai economy. I think 55 is fair value as things stand.

Also, the Thai economy is in collapse so there could be a run as an outside bet.

[AlexLah]

What if countries just keep devaluing their currency's one after another to remain competitive?

I mean the Pound, Swiss franc and some others have been devalued lately?

Look at the price of oil, from 33 to over 60 USD lately, price of food in the UK up somewhere in the 8-10%

I think prices of food and other commodities should give some idea about where this all is heading instead of prices for a house or exchange rate.

What if 50% of your disposable income needs to be spend on basic food necessities?

Not an expert, just writing down some thoughts.

[mommysboy]

HS look! - Uk house prices up.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle6385499.ece

It's an economic miracle and I think it's happened because JC loves the UK, because it's good.

Bound to effect the exchange rate- good sentiment.

[mommysboy]

At the end of the day... when all's said and done most people were predicting a constant fall of GBP/THB when it was 49/50/51 and it has risen (phoenix like) to 55 - someone actually suggested to me to transfer anywhere near 50 as that's was the peak - I held off and did so at 54 ish (still below today's peak) and gained 100,000s (mostly luck I know)

I'd like to know what the current predictions are? more gains? or falls? one thing this has proved to me (the obvious) that no one but no one has a clue...

Who was that someone ?

[Thongkorn]

What if countries just keep devaluing their currency's one after another to remain competitive?

I mean the Pound, Swiss franc and some others have been devalued lately?

Look at the price of oil, from 33 to over 60 USD lately, price of food in the UK up somewhere in the 8-10%

I think prices of food and other commodities should give some idea about where this all is heading instead of prices for a house or exchange rate.

What if 50% of your disposable income needs to be spend on basic food necessities?

Not an expert, just writing down some thoughts.

Britain has some of the cheapest food and cloths in Europe, , So 10% rise is nothing, house prices have started to rise in the Uk , the fts has risen , and 30% more mortgages have been granted this month , not a recovery but going in the right direction ,for now..

[neil324]

Bit to soon for the back slapping and circle jerk off i think.

Risk appetite is back and money is pouring out of the Dollar for now. Dollar showing signs of oversold and due a correction.

[chiang mai]

At the end of the day... when all's said and done most people were predicting a constant fall of GBP/THB when it was 49/50/51 and it has risen (phoenix like) to 55 - someone actually suggested to me to transfer anywhere near 50 as that's was the peak - I held off and did so at 54 ish (still below today's peak) and gained 100,000s (mostly luck I know)

I'd like to know what the current predictions are? more gains? or falls? one thing this has proved to me (the obvious) that no one but no one has a clue...

I think anyone who asks the question in a forum like this, "when is the best time to exchange money", or, "will the Baht rise or fall soon", must be prepared to live with the replies they receive without complaint.