Thailand's Shadowy Southern Insurgency

[churchill]

BANGKOK June 9 (Reuters) - Thailand's deep south has been hit by its worst violence in months, culminating in Monday's bloody attack on a mosque where gunmen killed 10 Muslims as they prayed.

Nineteen people have been killed and 40 injured since Friday in three predominately Muslim provinces near the Malaysian border where nearly 3,500 people have died in violence since 2004. [iD:nL81020018]

Despite more than 30,000 troops in the region, Thailand is no closer to quelling a shadowy insurgency.

WHO IS BEHIND THE VIOLENCE?

No credible group has claimed responsibility for any of the attacks, but analysts say the rebels' motivation is most likely separatist or ethno-nationalist.

The provinces of Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani were once an independent Malay-Muslim sultanate annexed by Buddhist Thailand a century ago.

Southern Muslims have resisted policies of assimilation by successive Thai governments. Many feel their language, culture and ethnicity is not properly recognised by Thais.

Authorities usually blame insurgents for the violence but rights groups have documented extrajudicial killings by security forces, and drug and mafia-related murders are rife.

WILL THE VIOLENCE SPREAD?

The eruption of violence in 2004 fuelled fears that the militants would attack western targets in Bangkok or holiday hotspots like Phuket. It has never happened.

"Expanding their campaign to other regions is not the target of this movement," Srisompob Jitpiromsri, a Pattani-based political scientist, said.

"It's very specific. They are attacking the Thai state from inside the three provinces and want to protect the identity of ethnic Malay Muslims," he said.

WHAT IS THE GOVERNMENT'S STRATEGY?

Successive Thai governments have tried to quash the violence through "iron fist" military action, or "hearts and minds" campaigns with offers of development aid and even free cable TV.

Nothing has worked, and governments have refused to negotiate or accept offers of help from outside.

"We always say negotiation will elevate the status of insurgents and internationalise the issue. It's not necessary," 2006 coup leader General Sonthi Boonyaratklin told Reuters.

The military's intelligence infrastructure in the deep south is basic at best and few people are willing to become informants for fear of reprisals and a deep distrust that exists between local Muslims and the authorities.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva may have a chance. His Democrat party is popular in the south and he is keen to lift a draconian emergency decree and attract investment to one of Thailand's poorest regions.

CAN MALAYSIA HELP?

Rights groups and academics believe Thailand's best chance of finding peace is to cooperate with its neighbour.

Muslims in the deep south have more in common with Malaysia, speaking a Malay dialect, not Thai. Analysts say joint operations and intelligence-sharing is vital to beat the insurgents and win hearts and minds.

Abhisit and his Malaysian counterpart Najib Razak have pledged to work closely to tackle the unrest, but it remains to be seen how sincere they are.

"We have seen growing support for the Thai rebels from northern Malaysia. To end this conflict, there needs to be collaborative relations between the two governments, not just cooperative," said Rohan Gunaratna, a Singapore-based security analyst and author of a book on the Thai insurgency.

ARE THERE ANY RISKS TO THE ECONOMY, INVESTMENT?

The region's isolation -- more than 1,000 km from Bangkok -- has limited the impact on investment in Thailand, but tourism has suffered as a result of Western travel warnings.

Since the three southernmost provinces contribute only 10 percent of Thailand's rubber output, attacks on rubber tappers, including several beheadings, have not had a significant impact on the world's biggest producer.

HOW LONG CAN THE VIOLENCE GO ON FOR?

Militants have no shortage of weapons or explosives to fuel a prolonged and protracted struggle.

Suspected rebels looted more than 400 assault rifles from a Narathiwat army base in 2004, and made off with about 1.5 tonnes of ammonium nitrate, used for explosives, in a raid on a Yala quarry in 2004. Only a few weapons have been recovered.

Analysts say aggressive security crackdowns, arbitrary arrests and reports of torture and extrajudicial killings have alienated the local population and aided recruitment of young, disaffected Muslims by rebel groups.

"According to our information, the number of insurgents in the region is now about 1,000," said Panitan Wattanayagorn, a former defence analyst and current Thai government spokesman.

"I have to admit, they're getting stronger." (Additional reporting by Kittipong Soonprasert) (Editing by Darren Schuettler and Sanjeev Miglani)

http://www.reuters.com/article/asiaCrisis/idUSBKK463005

-- Reuters 10/06/09

[roamer]

IMHO it can only escalate. Whilst its often generally lumped in as a "muslim insurgency" problem, for the hard core elements this is a territorial dispute and its impossible to see how that would ever be solved. History teaches us that this type of problem isn't solved by any of the methods the Thai government has taken to date. I think the question has always been will this problem remain localised or will the groups behind it choose to move it on to another level by taking it out of the deep south.