Gold Ready For A Nice Rally!

[Harmonica]

My opinion and MY strategy:

Nibble first, then on first successful close above the 200-day, quibble -- then on breakout above line #1, be generous -- then on breakout above line #2, drop the hammer!

At the most you will only lose the "nibble"

Be alert thereafter for exit strategy -- expected to go to 430+ regardless where the rally starts.

[Harmonica]

Sorry -- don't know what happened to the chart.

[Digger]

Harmonica, I saw the chart but am confused by your choice of language

Are you suggesting wait until gold goes down to 200US$ per ounce to buy? Surely thats not likely. Or is it?

Cheers

[Harmonica]

Harmonica, I saw the chart but am confused by your choice of language 

Are you suggesting wait until gold goes down to 200US$ per ounce to buy?  Surely thats not likely.  Or is it?

Cheers

Ouch! The 200 refers only to the 200-day moving average -- not at all to 200US$ per ounce.

Sorry for the confusion caused.

[~G~]

Harmonica, I saw the chart but am confused by your choice of language 

Are you suggesting wait until gold goes down to 200US$ per ounce to buy?  Surely thats not likely.  Or is it?

Cheers

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's 200 days, not 200$.

Basically he recommends buying a bit now, buying more when the index is rising and much more once the resistance lines break.

Regarding exit strategy - I guess it'll be good to start with a stoploss placed not much lower than your buy rate and gradually raise it once the index (hopefully) advances.

[Harmonica]

Harmonica, I saw the chart but am confused by your choice of language 

Are you suggesting wait until gold goes down to 200US$ per ounce to buy?   Surely thats not likely.   Or is it?

Cheers

That's 200 days, not 200$.

Basically he recommends buying a bit now, buying more when the index is rising and much more once the resistance lines break.

Regarding exit strategy - I guess it'll be good to start with a stoploss placed not much lower than your buy rate and gradually raise it once the index (hopefully) advances.

Thank you G

I'm getting careless -- G's notes on exit strategy are crucial to follow to preserve both capital and gains.

If the market moves against you, the TRAILING STOP will limit your loss or reduction of gain.

[Digger]

So have you bought gold yet Harmonica as its broken your line 1?

[Harmonica]

So have you bought gold yet Harmonica as its broken your line 1?

Yes -- Gold has jumped $14 in just a few days -- line #2 has also been crossed. I sold quite a bit yesterday (was over-extended) -- still have some left. Nice!

[LivinLOS]

Silver.. Said last week at +- 6.60 it was a buy.. already 7.30.. Could easiliy run to 8 IMHO..

Dont have a fast way to trade silver (anyone know a silver ETF ??) as my kitco trading would now be too slow (international money transfer etc).. Should have had my money where my mouth was as I was intending 100k Euro but now its taken a good sized jump ?!?!

Anyway I have a LARGE position in mining shares and the leverage they exert made the last few days very nice.. They are long holds though so cant watch daily movements even when they are nice..

[LivinLOS]

Harm, how you your trading it ?? GLD ??

[~G~]

So have you bought gold yet Harmonica as its broken your line 1?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes -- Gold has jumped $14 in just a few days -- line #2 has also been crossed. I sold quite a bit yesterday (was over-extended) -- still have some left. Nice!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So did "on breakout above line #2, drop the hammer!" meant selling??? Or did you have second thoughts?

[simcity]

Question : how to buy gold in the quick way ?

My experience are : what I done two weeks ago , to get some silver and gold ( mint certificate ) I need to contact the vendors , transfer some money ( well ! send a cheque as the sum was to large ) been charge 2 % ( only for the buy ) they say no charge for sell, paid 10 dollars for each certificate , plus cost ( minimum ).

Minimum buy from them 10000 dollars

It took me over about 10 days from the time I send a EMS from Bangkok to Australia and get everything clear and purchases done.

I decide to get it for long run , not looking at doing this exercise often .

Buy shares into a mine is faster for me , but as the Australia dollars go up , the shares price is going down .

I think to get some bars in ( yolayat - china town) spell it as you want, is good , but difficult to be trade outside Thailand .

Any other options ?

[LivinLOS]

I have accounts with kitco but they need a % to order (to cover downside and then defaulting risk).. IIRC it was 10% with gold and payment within 5 days..

For the 100k silver purchase I needed money with them and international bank transfers are often 3 days or even more.. Not exactly what I need for 'trades'.. Also as a private company with no backup or coverage against default I am not going to let them hold multiple 100's of k of mine without protection..

NYSE:GLD makes all this easy for gold and can be easily sold short or other variables but I know of nothing for silver.. No storage costs and broker protections.

Also look at perth mint certificates backed up by the Oz government for bullion holdings without delivery but government backing.

[chaladmak]

is it commodities trade ? I remember attending some course with my budd few years ago - those things on the chart called "Japanese candles", right?

[Blake7]

Question : how to buy gold in the quick way ?

My experience are : what I done two weeks ago ,  to get some silver and gold  ( mint certificate ) I need to contact the vendors , transfer some money ( well ! send a cheque as the sum was to large )  been charge 2 % ( only for the buy ) they say no charge for sell, paid 10 dollars for each certificate , plus cost ( minimum ).

Minimum buy from them 10000 dollars

It took me over about 10 days from the time I send a EMS from Bangkok to Australia and get everything clear and purchases done.

I decide to get it for long run , not looking at doing this exercise often .

Buy shares into a mine is faster for me , but as the Australia dollars go up , the shares price is going down .

I think to get some bars in ( yolayat - china town) spell it as you want, is good , but difficult to be trade outside Thailand .

Any other options ?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

try goldmoney.com

[Harmonica]

So have you bought gold yet Harmonica as its broken your line 1?

Yes -- Gold has jumped $14 in just a few days -- line #2 has also been crossed. I sold quite a bit yesterday (was over-extended) -- still have some left. Nice!

So did "on breakout above line #2, drop the hammer!" meant selling??? Or did you have second thoughts?

No, on "break above line #2, drop the hammer" meant HUGE buy! ..... so then why did I unload (sell) bigtime?

Its more than second thoughts -- the run-up was quick and steep and the gap-ups are big AND the doji shaping up yesterday also got me "thoughting" ....

1. is there going to be a slight (few dollars) downleg for a day or two or perhaps more and then the main bulk of the rise on past 430 -- which, if this plays out would make the entire rally move an A-B-C -- in which case I would have ample time to reload and fire just before wave C fires.

OR,

2. what if this is just a bounce off the 200-day and that's all we're gonna get for now -- and the market intends to penetrate the 200-day even deeper and THEN give us the ABC rally?

plus

3. this play is just a hedge for me against when USD corrects, which is what it is doing -- it allows me NOT to disturb my plan for short-term counter-trend moves, rather let the hedge keep me well in the green. But USD might fire any moment. And then again it might not. I'm not sure.

With this in mind I took the cautious way out and secured a large chunk of capital and associated profit and am just letting a small %age ride the uncertainty.

[Harmonica]

Fellas, Gold shot up by $7.40 in just one day -- we're @ 435 already. $22 gain for such a short time -- cool, isn't it?

There is plenty of resistance at this level.

I've taken profit again on most of my remaining position.

If you're still in, consider placing a tight STOP so you don't give your gains back to the market when it corrects -- or you could SELL and take profit now. Your call, of course.

[Harmonica]

Here's the updated chart with today's action -- remember the lines #1 and #2?

[Harmonica]

Fellas, Gold shot up by $7.40 in just one day -- we're @ 435 already.  $22 gain for such a short time -- cool, isn't it?

There is plenty of resistance at this level.

I've taken profit again on most of my remaining position. 

If you're still in, consider placing a tight STOP so you don't give your gains back to the market when it corrects -- or you could SELL and take profit now.  Your call, of course.

 

See what I mean? After closing @ 436 (approx.) on Feb 23rd and 26th, Gold then lost $6 in 4 days. So my cautionary call was OK even though I gave up some potential profit by unloading a hefty quantity @ around 427. The rest of my position got stopped out eventually around 434. So, all in all, a nice $22 move overall, of which I captured a good sized chunk. Let's move on ...

After collecting my profit, Gold then started going down -- $6 in 4 days -- glad I was out.

Last Friday was a big day with a $4.30 jump for the day.

So here's where I stand -- there are 2 possibilities (as I mentioned in the opening, or later post) -- we are going down now OR we still have wave C up. So I got in again with a small position @ 431 on March 3rd but I have placed a STOP @ 430. Friday's action has therefore put me well into the green, but if the 1st scenario (above) occurs, I'll be stopped out with about a $1 loss for this meager position.

If fiday's high gets taken out convincingly, I'll have to assume that scenario #2 is occuring and then might add to my position.

Not happy about the black trendline shown --- unclear whether it is a valid trendline yet -- therefore the STOP.

This then is my "thoughting" if anyone else is playing this.

Best of luck!

[Harmonica]

Ahhhh! ..... but, look Ma, there is very little volume -- hehehe. Just plug in a STOP and go to the movies!

[Harmonica]

Yeah, yellow is mellow!

Fellas, I'm taking profit again! In the chart below I show the fibonacci retracement levels for the rally. We are already at 61.8% retracement. That is the reason I am taking PARTIAL profits. This does NOT mean we can't go higher. But I'm not related to Abraham, so I take precautions.

If there is a small retracement and then the market shoots up again on LARGE volume, I'll load to the hilt for a few days as it would signal wave 3 of C -- the most powerful segment. If however, on the retracement, the trendline shown below, gets taken out, I'll be gone in a jiffy with the quickest exit in history. And then I'll reverse position and go SHORT!

Here I'm updating the actual uptrendline for this mini-rally that started Feb 9th. The last few days of action point to March 3rd as being the 2nd contact point for the formation of this trendline. The odds are very high that this is correct as the the bounce from March 3rd has taken out the high of the 1st leg of the rally.

I therefore feel quite confident that this trendline will offer solid final STOPLOSS options -- and when broken decisively will signal an end to the mini-rally.

We can therefore discard the trendline shown in the previous chart as it only represents the mini-uptrend of the 1st leg up.

We are in Wave C.

God, do I love it so!

[Harmonica]

Don't be shy -- take some MORE profit and let the remaining position ride. STOPLOSS line @ 436.

Question is: "has gold fired 6 shots or only 5 ... ?"

If Gold starts coming down for a couple or few days, but the dark (see graph above) trendline holds, it will mean .... 5 shots .... i.e. still 1 shot left.

If this turns out to be the case, get the Gatlin gun ready and poised for battle -- the gains in a short period of time can be substantial, for it will be wave 3. That is, if the above scenario holds true.

Caveat: I'm not related to Abraham.

[Harmonica]

>>>> Don't be shy -- take some MORE profit and let the remaining position ride. STOPLOSS line @ 436 <<<<<<

check out the date of this call -- March 11. Gold topped that day. A prescient call, don't you think? I'll take "lucky" too.

So, after quite a few profit takings we are left with a smaller holding with stoploss @ 436.

Trendline is broken now -- let's see how far Gold retraces and if there is going to be a final leg up?

[Maka]

Facinating !

Listening intently

Watching closely

Whats the relationship to this Gold "rally" and the USD/Bhat ?

[Harmonica]

Facinating !

Listening intently

Watching closely

Whats the relationship to this Gold "rally" and the USD/Bhat ?

Gold & Dollar = Farang (wife & husband).

Hostility is the chief attribute and propellant. It is also the major effluent.

They oppose each other ALMOST always and hate each others' guts.

When they are not drilling each other, one buggers the other.

Gold (wife) has been steadily & systematically emasculating & decapitating Dollar (husband) for a long, long time and has had the upper hand since antediluvian times.

Then Dollar discovered LOS -- he discerned, to his utter amazement, that women treated him like a Lord and Master and gave him the respect that he deserved as a provider.

He filed for Divorce -- told the judge, "then you might as well put the cuffs on me now, for I ain't giving this bitch another dime!" -- lost everything he owned -- but, was pleased! A new future awaited him.

The Divorce came thru' in December -- Dollar bought a one-way ticket for LOS!

His self-esteem, power, capability, self-confidence & subterranean thrust were growing exponentially -- and then he found Love.

That's why he showed up for the gunfight with just a knife!

He generally moves inversely to Gold ( hehehehe, makes sense eh?) -- the Thai Baht is also a farang woman & therefore related directly to Gold. They move as one and think as one, just like the women in the "Ladies Forum" -- they have just one goal -- to engineer and witness the Dollar's demise.

&lt;deleted&gt; 'em. I'm with my buddy, the Dollar!

[Yangpuss]

You have a real gift for metaphor, Harm.

Suggest you go into the fiction biz if this Day Trader stuff doesn't work out.

Meanwhile, we're still sitting on the dollar and waiting and watching and pondering. Have some ideas but can't implement them for at least a month for various reasons.

[Harmonica]

You have a real gift for metaphor, Harm.

Suggest you go into the fiction biz if this Day Trader stuff doesn't work out.

Meanwhile, we're still sitting on the dollar and waiting and watching and pondering. Have some ideas but can't implement them for at least a month for various reasons.    

Hey, even my best friends -- they don't know .... that my job .... is turning Lead .... into Gold!

Add a tune and ..... recognize it?

You can't imagine what a lucky fellow you are; in my opinion & thru' my mind's eye, anyway. You made some choices in the financial realm without really knowing what you were doing -- "serendipitous" -- that describes your US dollar stance as per the thread you started.

I think Lady Luck looks favorably upon you -- just hang in there amigo; one of the finest, yet most difficult to acquire & harness, virtues, is Patience -- in the financial world, that is (universal really).

Nobody ever came out a winner in the medium-term by following the herd -- going against their driving force is an acquired ability and at major turning points can be a revelation.

[Yangpuss]

Hey, even my best friends -- they don't know .... that my job .... is turning Lead  .... into Gold! 

Add a tune and ..... recognize it? 

You can't imagine what a lucky fellow you are; in my opinion & thru' my  mind's eye, anyway.  You made some choices in the financial realm without really knowing what you were doing -- "serendipitous" -- that describes your US dollar stance as per the thread you started.

I think Lady Luck looks favorably upon you -- just hang in there amigo; one of the finest, yet most difficult to acquire & harness, virtues,  is Patience -- in the financial world, that is (universal really). 

Nobody ever came out a winner in the medium-term by following the herd -- going against their driving force is an acquired ability and at major turning points can be  a  revelation.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well, I didn't really make any choices. In fact, I haven't done anything. I suppose not doing anything is a choice of sorts. I have never had anything but US dollars. Now that may change soon, if I can decide on a strategy and have the guts to actually do it.

But I really respect your opinion and admire your courage for defending it. Completely agree that the herd are almost always wrong. Just am not so sure about that on this issue.

[Harmonica]

Hey, even my best friends -- they don't know .... that my job .... is turning Lead  .... into Gold!  

Add a tune and ..... recognize it? 

You can't imagine what a lucky fellow you are; in my opinion & thru' my  mind's eye, anyway.  You made some choices in the financial realm without really knowing what you were doing -- "serendipitous" -- that describes your US dollar stance as per the thread you started.

I think Lady Luck looks favorably upon you -- just hang in there amigo; one of the finest, yet most difficult to acquire & harness, virtues,  is Patience -- in the financial world, that is (universal really). 

Nobody ever came out a winner in the medium-term by following the herd -- going against their driving force is an acquired ability and at major turning points can be  a  revelation.

Well, I didn't really make any choices. In fact, I haven't done anything. I suppose not doing anything is a choice of sorts. I have never had anything but US dollars. Now that may change soon, if I can decide on a strategy and have the guts to actually do it.

But I really respect your opinion and admire your courage for defending it. Completely agree that the herd are almost always wrong. Just am not so sure about that on this issue.

Yangpuss, don't remember whether you mentioned (or not) that you're retired -- if you are and really don't have a whole lot to do, might I recommend that you get started on a study course (individually, of course) -- no teacher required and no course fees to pay. 4 hours/day (approx.) of intensive study.

I can recommend a set of books that you can have shipped by Amazon.com -- these financial books are all-time CLASSICS -- approx. 30 in all -- estimated time to consume all (MBA battering ram style) = 1 year.

After that you'll need about 2 years to observe, practise and develop your own strategy.

You may never ever ask for financial advice again as you will have become your own financial advisor and will always seek your own counsel.

Look at it this way -- 1 year will have come and gone in a jiffy -- regardless what you do. Dig?

Sorry for the lecture!

[LivinLOS]

just curious.. what would those books be ??