Hard Currencies

[LaoPo]

And what happened then?  Nasdaq collapsed from 5400 in March 2000 to 1150 thereabouts in October 2002 and many, many investors are STILL  waiting to recoup losses -- many died of heart attacks -- others hope that somebody will put them out of their misery!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Right. I stepped out end Feb, early March 2000 completely; including Nasdaq, HK, Japan and Europe.

I suppose you did the same and made a (increased) fortune, like I did?

I don't follow technical charts or analizes like you. Analists of ALL major banks and institutions proved absolutely wrong in the past, including in Feb/March 2000! Even my own brokers' company told me to 'hold on'; wrong they were.

Instead I use my 'senses' by reading a lot, following Global finances, Politics, Economic situations Worldwide etc.

Like I'm now 'following' George W., trying (and succeeding) to make friends with Europe again...WHY?

Fortunately I have a lot of friends in major cities around the Globe, I listen to, learn a lot from...and make decisions myself and make myself happy.

Good Luck to you all

LaoPo

Edited February 23, 2005 by LaoPo

[taxexile]

will the next card out of the pack be an ace of spades or a three of hearts or a six of clubs , will the next car to drive past be red or blue , will my next fart be a sulphurous rattler or a silent summer breeze , its all gambling.

(by the way , i never fart)

for every winner there will be a loser , you can follow the trends and jump off early , and those with insider knowledge will win just as cheats everywhere have an advantage. for the regular masses (i.e. most of us) by the time we get to hear of the latest best deal , its ceased to become the latest best deal , and gains , if any , will be minimal.

those much worshipped trends are at the whim of uncontrollable events such as terrorist attacks , opec decisions , political policy shifts. there is no way to foresee what will happen , some people are born gamblers and make money through luck and/or by the use of skill over the less experienced.

you can keep your currency trading , your 25% "risk free" bonds , the fancy offices and starched collars of financial "advisors" with their exhorbitant commissions hidden deep down in the small print.

if you are having to ask advice on a forum then the only good advice would be to keep a tight hold on what you've got and dont get suckered in. its just las vegas with a veneer of respectability and intelligence.

for the cautious investor , or non- gambler ,look no further than an offshore bank giving 5.5% tax free interest on a 12 month or 6 month deposit and you will know exactly how much you have got at any minute of any day. the gains are less , but they are guaranteed. as is piece of mind. its stress free . the blood pressure stays low . alcohol and valium will be strangers in your life

you will sleep easy at night , you wont be sitting baggy eyed in front of a screen at 4am surrounded by dog ends and cold coffee cups waiting to see if those coco palm futures have gained the necessary 0.003% that will signify the upswing of a bullish resistance thing.

these financial threads do make great reading , but the diversity of strategies offered just proves that playing the markets is not a science , in spite of the appearance of ever more complicated graphs and technical terms.

its just a gamble , its lady luck in a power suit , its the lure of big money for little effort.

a fool and his money are soon parted.

dont get involved unless you know where it may lead.

[thaistick]

[a fool and his money are soon parted.

Always wondered how a fool and his money got together in the first place.

[Harmonica]

[a fool and his money are soon parted.

Always wondered how a fool and his money got together in the first place.

He got his money from a BIGGER fool, that's how! .. hehehehe

[Vit42]

Fact: In Switzerland, both Swiss Francs and Euros are commonly used.

Fact: By low, sell high is speculative and relative to when you got in. Better advice would be to buy when everyone else is selling and sell when everyone is buying.

Fact: No one can predict the future, not even Alan Greenspan.

[kreon]

Fact: In Switzerland, both Swiss Francs and Euros are commonly used.

Fact: By low, sell high is speculative and relative to when you got in. Better advice would be to buy when everyone else is selling and sell when everyone is buying.

Fact: No one can predict the future, not even Alan Greenspan.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

you're right, its all about sense, aways make sure you have a balanced potfolio, the old adage, never put all your eggs in one basket, only speculate with what you can afford to lose!

the so called experts have beaten the markets only 23% of the time, even great investors are often only right about 35% of the time... they lose money on two out of three investments. their total returns are enormous because the size of the winners far outpaces the size of their losses.

when you buy stock, i recommend a stop loss and that people don't ever let themselves lose more than 25% on an investment. get out, no ifs, ands or buts. (i actually recommend a 25% trailing stop, too, meaning if you buy a stock at $10, and it goes to $20, you'd have to sell if it fell to $15, without a doubt.)

with currencies the same, have a basket, such as usd, euro, swiss frances(35%), yuan, hong kong$, thai baht, aussie$(30%) and the balance in gold, that way at worst case scenario, you break even, tax free, to put all your cash into usd is just foolish!

[horke999]

Dump both the Euro and Sw fr.

Then load up on USD bigtime -- and hold for at least 2005, perhaps 2006 and into early 2007 -- to be re-evaluated after Dec 2005.

The Swiss Frank is unusual in that it is backed by gold reserves. It's also a very safe place to put your money . If there's a nuclear war ,post war Europe will be dominated by Switzerland .

Horke

[jackr]

We all know where the gold came from don't we? Thankyou mr H

[thaistick]

Dump both the Euro and Sw fr.

Then load up on USD bigtime -- and hold for at least 2005, perhaps 2006 and into early 2007 -- to be re-evaluated after Dec 2005.

The dollar will not make it through 2006.

The Swiss Frank is unusual in that it is backed by gold reserves. It's also a very safe place to put your money . If there's a nuclear war ,post war Europe will be dominated by Switzerland .

Horke

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's the Swiss franc and if there is a nuclear war,Switzerland which is smack dab in the middle of Europe won't exist.Southeast Asia and Australia are the best regions geographically in such a TEOTWAWKI.

The more realistic poop hitting the fan scenario is America's dollar and debt-laden service economy collapsing which would turn the US into another third world banana republic in the Americas.It would take Canada down with it making the Americas third world continents like Africa.Europe's economies would suffer but it would be balanced by the euro taking over.North Asia's economies would suffer more and trillions in worthless dollar reserves would be lost,but they finally realize that and are discreetly using their dollars buying up other currencies and resources.

[Braccobaldo]

...about investments...it's not gambling..

..just pick a decent start-up, than only a matter of time.

[Braccobaldo]

...nice post, Rav...I just want add my GREATEST HOPE regarding western countries...NO MORE DIVISIONS...all countries need to have a unique common voice about foreign politic...THIS IS THE WAY TO FOLLOW.

[Paul MBMG]

there's a lot of interesting stuff but I wondered if you wanted to hear the views of a real expert - no not me! but the guy rated by S&P as the best in the business since 1997, Scott Campbell of Optimal FM (if you haven't heard of him it's most likley because his clients are other institutions and not private individuals). On Frida last week he wrote

PORTFOLIO CURRENCY MANAGEMENT

"There are three major issues to consider when constructing your global portfolios from a currency viewpoint.

Firstly, can you afford to take currency risk from your home currency or base portfolio? Many investors, particularly in the southern hemisphere, will correctly consider global diversification an absolute necessity but wish to achieve absolute returns in their home currency or USD or GBP due to historical links. If you are a GBP, Rand, NZ$, USD thinker and do not wish to have, what can be large variances over many years due to currency movements, then you must fully hedge your global exposure back to your base currency. We at Optimal Fund Management are instituting a strategy of offering our Core Global Portfolio in many fully hedged currency classes, but we continue to manage from a USD base thinking. There is no discretion in the monthly forward currency contracts at all times, which effectively provides you with benefits in times of home currency strength and disadvantages in times of home currency weakness. However it reduces uncertainty to those investors who are not willing to experience such volatility.

Secondly, is the strategic currency allocation decision? Many investors wish to have asset class and currency diversification and will construct their portfolio accordingly. Currencies tend to experience quite long term cycles and investors wish to benefit from these cycles. The best example is USD/EUR where over the past 20 years there have been numerous 3-5 year cycles of USD strength and visa versa for the Euro or previously the ECU and Deutschemark. As stated above, we at Optimal Fund Management have a USD base portfolio and took a strong dollar strategic decision until 2001. When the EURO turned at 84cents we considered it in a bull market phase and have constantly made strategic asset allocation decisions by buying physical assets in non USD assets of up to 75% of the portfolio based on this view (2003 especially). We currently sit at 25% non USD assets as the large move since 2001 has made the trade less attractive.

Finally, running a currency overlay within a global portfolio to reduce short term noise is important for reducing the overall volatility to investors. This is a tactical decision made on a daily basis given technical charts, pattern analysis and fundamental analysis. Currently we still believe we are short USD on a strategic basis, albeit less so than in 2001/02/03, but the charts show short term strength back to the 85 levels on the US Dollar index or EUR 1.24, YEN 110, GBP 1.80 (see chart below). Therefore the currency overlay trades were placed before Christmas to protect our strategic gains with forward currency contracts and will be unwound when the target price is achieved or the view is changed.

The move by Asian banks, particularly Korea, this week has tested the short term USD hedge (see chart below) but we remain protected or long USD. Strategically we are becoming less USD bearish and are looking for all currencies to depreciate against the only currency that does not have significant deficits, debts and a printing press central bank chairman, GOLD" (and to a lesser extent, Swiss Franc)

Unfortunately the graphs didn't copy, apologies about that.

[Yangpuss]

with currencies the same, have a basket, such as usd, euro, swiss frances(35%), yuan, hong kong$, thai baht, aussie$(30%) and the balance in gold, that way at worst case scenario, you break even, tax free, to put all your cash into usd is just foolish!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Kreon, that sounds good, but what does a person do who is, today, in the situation that all of his money is in US dollars? That's the boat I'm in. With hindsight, I should have diversified back last summer, when the dollar had corrected against the euro and was at 1.19 or so. But I wouldn't do that now, when the dollar is weak. Same with the Canadian dollar.

And if I go into Yuan, I earn no interest. Right now, my US dollar accounts are earning 4.7% interest. So to move to Yuan with no interest, yuan would have to float and appreciate 5% a year in order to break even. The Chinese have said that they will float it slowly, not all at once. Maybe they're lying to discourage investors. Who knows?

HK dollar earns about 1.5%. Maybe that is a good choice, because of the peg. Will they release their peg if the Chinese do, thus enabling my investment to appreciate?

I would like to diversify, but right now I don't see any clear indications of what to buy. Ringgits appear to be unobtainable due to government imposed currency controls. The highest earning savings accounts I see are in NZ dollars (5.5%) or Rand or Aussie dollars, and I suspect that the reason the yields are high is that these currencies have already appreciated a lot against the dollar (true?) and that is a reason to be wary.

Gold? Silver? They're not exactly cheap right now, and their price history is very turbulent. I wish there was a clear indication of the logical alternative to dollars at this point in time...

[simcity]

where can you buy Yuan in bangkok ? the rate as today for echange are :

CNY 3.82 buy and 5.01 sell that is a high percentage ..

[Yangpuss]

where can you buy Yuan in bangkok ? the rate as today for echange are :

CNY 3.82 buy and 5.01 sell that is a high percentage ..

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, that is another problem with the Yuan. The spread between buy and sell prices is too big. Will that change if they float it?

I think it's quite expensive to buy Yuan in Thailand. I did it once, just bought a little bit for a trip, and found later that it was considerably cheaper to get it in China with my ATM card.

[Vit42]

I love these threads.

Some use analytical charts... some say it is all gambling... some say speculation... etc. etc. I say look at Human Nature and then try to figure out, where the world is going from here... 'Some' spculation, 'some' gambling and 'some' analysis will help, but human nature will dictate.

What caused the USD to rise after 9/11? Was it because of world economy, or world 'opinion' that 'caused' by human nature, in its very nature to support the injured? For example.

As I said in a previous posting on another economic topic. We are all observing an economc world war. Everybody is jockying for 'position'. Right now the position is that the USA is still the ONLY World Super Power. Europe is uniting in order to strengthen their position. The UK is standing (sensibly) on the sidelines, being in Europe but not IN Europe. China is on a MISSION, while India is slowly and reasonably quietly moving upwards. Russia is alone, but still very strong and not out of the picture. etc etc.

So where do we go from here, watching this almighty game of 'World Chess'?

Do not, underestimate G.W. Bush. Half of his own people think he is a fool. Much of the rest of the world has the same opinion. He is not. What he is not good at is, public speaking and self-presentation. That is all. His aim is to survive, and to stay at the top, and to keep his country in number one position. Nothing wrong with that. It is human nature doing its job. Iraq was a necessary move for Bush and the US. Iran WILL be next. It must be. My best guess is that he recently staightened that out (behind closed doors) in his recent visit to Europe and Russia. Oh they will have agreed to scream some when it happens... but that is all. China cannot make to much noise, although they will be furious. They also know it is an economic war, and will not want to take it further (at this time.) Bush is gathering alies and mending some broken fences. The Chinese think they have the answer, and think the time will come when they can say, "Check Mate." That is not going to happen. Not now, not soon, or ever in the foreseeable future. Many countries may not like America, but look at the human nature... America No1 World Super Power... or China? Ask the Canadians, the Australians, the British, all of the Europeans, the Israelis, India?

My best guess is that China will fall under its own 'out-of-control' economic boom. The dollar will rise again... the only question is When?

Harmonica is right in some things, in my opinion... but this is NOT the time to buy dollars. I think the dollar will fall very close to 1.5 around 1.48 to the Euro... I don't think it will be allowed to go further than that.

The USA will not become a third world country, not for the foreseeable future. It is not the American nature to go that way... Not at ANY cost. Not at ANY price. They have alread gone the route of Atomic bomb... once done, it is so much easier to do it again. If they go out... they will go with an almighty BANG!

just my two..... or twenty bahts worth 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Let's not get philosophical w/o a bit of history to remind us of the facts of human nature:

All empires collapse eventually: Akkad, Sumeria, Babylonia, Ninevah, Assyria, Persia, Macedonia, Greece, Carthage, Rome, Mali, Songhai, Mongonl, Tokugawaw, Gupta, Khmer, Hapbsburg, Inca, Aztec, Spanish, Dutch, Ottoman, Austrian, French, British, Soviet, you name them, they all fell, and most within a few hundred years. The reasons are not really complex. An empire is a kind of state system that inevitably makes the same mistakes simply by the nature of its imperial structure and inevitably fails because of its size, complexity, territorial reach, stratification, heterogeneity, domination, hierarchy, and inequalities.

Some explanations offered up for an Empire's collapse:

First, environmental degradation. Empires always end by destroying the lands and waters they depend upon for survival, largely because they build and farm and grow without limits.

Second, economic meltdown. Empires always depend on excessive resource exploitation, usually derived from colonies farther and farther away from the center, and eventually fall when the resources are exhausted or become too expensive for all but the elite.

Third, military overstretch. Empires, because they are by definition colonizers, are always forced to extend their military reach farther and farther, and enlarge it against unwilling colonies more and more, until coffers are exhausted, communication lines are overextended, troops are unreliable, and the periphery resists and ultimately revolts.

Finally, domestic dissent and upheaval. Traditional empires end up collapsing from within as well as often being attacked from without, and so far the level of dissent within the U.S. has not reached the point of rebellion or secession-thanks both to the increasing repression of dissent and escalation of fear in the name of "homeland security" and to the success of our modern version of bread and circuses, a unique combination of entertainment, sports, television, internet sex and games, consumption, drugs, liquor, and religion that effectively deadens the general public into stupor.

Will the U.S. Empire be any different? Time will tell but if history has any say, we as humans are bound to follow the cycles of nature... what goes up must eventually come down. Me, I'm just here for the ride.

[peterzxr]

I'l try and keep this brief but I would:

1. Not attempt to trade in currencies for profit unless you're an expert because you will lose big time one day.

2. If you want to spread your savings around a bit to reduce the risks regarding rate fluctuations relative to THB then I would suggest dividing it amongst USD, EUR, GBP and AUD - 25% in each.

3. Then you would be active in probably the four strongest currencies in the world on a medium term basis and therefore as safe as you could get within reason.

4. Once you have divided your money is this manner it would be best to then buy government savings bonds in these relative currencies in order to create a return.

Other than that, keep it all in cash in a shoebox under ya bed to avoid all risk.

[Paul MBMG]

I'l try and keep this brief but I would:

1. Not attempt to trade in currencies for profit unless you're an expert because you will lose big time one day.

2. If you want to spread your savings around a bit to reduce the risks regarding rate fluctuations relative to THB then I would suggest dividing it amongst USD, EUR, GBP and AUD - 25% in each.

3. Then you would be active in probably the four strongest currencies in the world on a medium term basis and therefore as safe as you could get within reason.

4. Once you have divided your money is this manner it would be best to then buy government savings bonds in these relative currencies in order to create a return.

Other than that, keep it all in cash in a shoebox under ya bed to avoid all risk.

Interesting but not without problems, Peter. Why would ou feel comfortable buying government bonds as a non-expert but not currencies. Both are fraught with danger. The difference between currencies and many other forms of investment is the relative value relationship - they go up or down only against each other - not in abslute terms. People have created synthetic allocations in the past like the 4-way split you describe but because of the relative value nature of currencies it;s a bit of a fudge rather than a genuine hedge (i.e. you probabl get 2 good ones and 2 bad ones - although I think that Peter's example is probably 1 Ok currency [Euro] and 3 bad ones). US$, Stg and AUD all have major structural issues to face at some stage soon and are all 3 probably best avoided. If you're going to genuinely hedge then do it properly.

Now would be a terrible time to buy bonds of many at least the US Government - even Greenspan admits he doesn't understand the current pricing!.

There are plenty of more sensible alternatives that don't involve gambling, risk or speculation - Warren Buffet once said "If you only make one invetsment in your life, invets in merger arbitrage." Actually it may not be the best time right now to do that either but it's a better return than a shoebox or bonds and less risk than either.

Someone else said gold was expensive - I'm not sure what they meant - what else can you buy today at half the sticker price that it was 25 years ago ?(except maybe some technologies that have gotten far cheaper to mass produce).

[kreon]

where can you buy Yuan in bangkok ? the rate as today for echange are :

CNY 3.82 buy and 5.01 sell that is a high percentage ..

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, that is another problem with the Yuan. The spread between buy and sell prices is too big. Will that change if they float it?

I think it's quite expensive to buy Yuan in Thailand. I did it once, just bought a little bit for a trip, and found later that it was considerably cheaper to get it in China with my ATM card.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

buy it through your bank in hong kong, you can have deposits in hkg$ and yuan with hsbc, yes you're right interest rates are not to high, but you can't ignore the fact that the usd has lost 30%+ since bush came in power!

your €, aussie$, swiss franc, yuan, hk$ holdings would have nicely cushioned agains that loss in value, as they went-up!

gold, silver, is always, due to supply and demand, its still is and always be as liquid as cash! it still has gone from $325 to $438 in a period of 18 months or so!

just wait untill it drops a bit, say to $425 and buy some, i for one believe it will go to $460-75 by years end, a 7-10% increase for the year.

[Paul MBMG]

buy it through your bank in hong kong, you can have deposits in hkg$ and yuan with hsbc, yes you're right interest rates are not to high, but you can't ignore the fact that the usd has lost 30%+ since bush came in power!

your €, aussie$, swiss franc, yuan, hk$ holdings would have nicely cushioned agains that loss in value, as they went-up!

gold, silver, is always, due to supply and demand, its still is and always be as liquid as cash! it still has gone from $325 to $438 in a period of 18 months or so!

just wait untill it drops a bit, say to $425 and buy some, i for one believe it will go to $460-75 by years end, a 7-10% increase for the year.

but why buy Yuan ? that's gone down in line with US$ and relying on revaluation against the Dollar is a long shot (we don't see it right now and we've got the best track record in Thailand on Asian currency calls)

so Yuan and HK$ would have gone down 30%+ too

the world's leading gold analysts agree with you about the gold price though.....

[sleir]

Oh well, i have not been reading the whole thread but it is a well known fact that swiss franks is a very, very hard currency. Switzerland has a very stable, export based economy, of course our economy is dependant on the european and american market but it does only slightly affect overall economic growth (which has been between 0 and 1 % for centuries... ). So over the years the CHF (swiss Frank) has been gaining on all (!!) foreign currencies, it's not a speculative currency of course as the Euro and the Dollar, no matter how hard they've been in the past, may be at the moment. You will not earn quick cash but you can be sure, more sure than any others, that you're money will not lose it's value but rather gain a good bit over time.

Should not be a "hurray, our swiss Frank is better than yo money"-thread but i guess most currency traders would agree with the above statements.

(I for my part am happy to get more Baht, Euro, Dollar every year when i go to holidays )

[jackr]

I love these threads.

Some use analytical charts... some say it is all gambling... some say speculation... etc. etc. I say look at Human Nature and then try to figure out, where the world is going from here... 'Some' spculation, 'some' gambling and 'some' analysis will help, but human nature will dictate.

What caused the USD to rise after 9/11? Was it because of world economy, or world 'opinion' that 'caused' by human nature, in its very nature to support the injured? For example.

As I said in a previous posting on another economic topic. We are all observing an economc world war. Everybody is jockying for 'position'. Right now the position is that the USA is still the ONLY World Super Power. Europe is uniting in order to strengthen their position. The UK is standing (sensibly) on the sidelines, being in Europe but not IN Europe. China is on a MISSION, while India is slowly and reasonably quietly moving upwards. Russia is alone, but still very strong and not out of the picture. etc etc.

So where do we go from here, watching this almighty game of 'World Chess'?

Do not, underestimate G.W. Bush. Half of his own people think he is a fool. Much of the rest of the world has the same opinion. He is not. What he is not good at is, public speaking and self-presentation. That is all. His aim is to survive, and to stay at the top, and to keep his country in number one position. Nothing wrong with that. It is human nature doing its job. Iraq was a necessary move for Bush and the US. Iran WILL be next. It must be. My best guess is that he recently staightened that out (behind closed doors) in his recent visit to Europe and Russia. Oh they will have agreed to scream some when it happens... but that is all. China cannot make to much noise, although they will be furious. They also know it is an economic war, and will not want to take it further (at this time.) Bush is gathering alies and mending some broken fences. The Chinese think they have the answer, and think the time will come when they can say, "Check Mate." That is not going to happen. Not now, not soon, or ever in the foreseeable future. Many countries may not like America, but look at the human nature... America No1 World Super Power... or China? Ask the Canadians, the Australians, the British, all of the Europeans, the Israelis, India?

My best guess is that China will fall under its own 'out-of-control' economic boom. The dollar will rise again... the only question is When?

Harmonica is right in some things, in my opinion... but this is NOT the time to buy dollars. I think the dollar will fall very close to 1.5 around 1.48 to the Euro... I don't think it will be allowed to go further than that.

The USA will not become a third world country, not for the foreseeable future. It is not the American nature to go that way... Not at ANY cost. Not at ANY price. They have alread gone the route of Atomic bomb... once done, it is so much easier to do it again. If they go out... they will go with an almighty BANG!

just my two..... or twenty bahts worth 

Let's not get philosophical w/o a bit of history to remind us of the facts of human nature:

All empires collapse eventually: Akkad, Sumeria, Babylonia, Ninevah, Assyria, Persia, Macedonia, Greece, Carthage, Rome, Mali, Songhai, Mongonl, Tokugawaw, Gupta, Khmer, Hapbsburg, Inca, Aztec, Spanish, Dutch, Ottoman, Austrian, French, British, Soviet, you name them, they all fell, and most within a few hundred years. The reasons are not really complex. An empire is a kind of state system that inevitably makes the same mistakes simply by the nature of its imperial structure and inevitably fails because of its size, complexity, territorial reach, stratification, heterogeneity, domination, hierarchy, and inequalities.

Some explanations offered up for an Empire's collapse:

First, environmental degradation. Empires always end by destroying the lands and waters they depend upon for survival, largely because they build and farm and grow without limits.

Second, economic meltdown. Empires always depend on excessive resource exploitation, usually derived from colonies farther and farther away from the center, and eventually fall when the resources are exhausted or become too expensive for all but the elite.

Third, military overstretch. Empires, because they are by definition colonizers, are always forced to extend their military reach farther and farther, and enlarge it against unwilling colonies more and more, until coffers are exhausted, communication lines are overextended, troops are unreliable, and the periphery resists and ultimately revolts.

Finally, domestic dissent and upheaval. Traditional empires end up collapsing from within as well as often being attacked from without, and so far the level of dissent within the U.S. has not reached the point of rebellion or secession-thanks both to the increasing repression of dissent and escalation of fear in the name of "homeland security" and to the success of our modern version of bread and circuses, a unique combination of entertainment, sports, television, internet sex and games, consumption, drugs, liquor, and religion that effectively deadens the general public into stupor.

Will the U.S. Empire be any different? Time will tell but if history has any say, we as humans are bound to follow the cycles of nature... what goes up must eventually come down. Me, I'm just here for the ride.

Great post Vit42. And interesting reading. I think the question is 'when' will the U.S. Empire fall, not if. What we need to work out is 'how' then we will have a better idea of 'when'. This is also the first time in known history, that when it goes down, it is powerful enough to take the rest of us with it. Looking at past human nature in war, that is highly possible. So let's hope 'when' is a very long time in the future......

You should be alright, Rav'; but I'm half your age...ish

[Paul MBMG]

Oh well, i have not been reading the whole thread but it is a well known fact that swiss franks is a very, very hard currency. Switzerland has a very stable, export based economy, of course our economy is dependant on the european and american market but it does only slightly affect overall economic growth (which has been between 0 and 1 % for centuries... ). So over the years the CHF (swiss Frank) has been gaining on all (!!) foreign currencies, it's not a speculative currency of course as the Euro and the Dollar, no matter how hard they've been in the past, may be at the moment. You will not earn quick cash but you can be sure, more sure than any others, that you're money will not lose it's value but rather gain a good bit over time.

Should not be a "hurray, our swiss Frank is better than yo money"-thread but i guess most currency traders would agree with the above statements.

(I for my part am happy to get more Baht, Euro, Dollar every year when i go to holidays )

no currency is consistently stronger forever, Sleir, but we do like CHF right now......

[sleir]

no currency is consistently stronger forever, Sleir, but we do like CHF right now......

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

name me another currency that has been half as strong as the CHF over the years please I think it is still a very, very safe investment, if you can call it that.

[Yangpuss]

no currency is consistently stronger forever, Sleir, but we do like CHF right now......

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

name me another currency that has been half as strong as the CHF over the years please I think it is still a very, very safe investment, if you can call it that.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You all are not understanding my situation at all. Yes, I am well aware that gold and all those other currencies have appreciated dramatically compared to the dollar. That is why I'm not going to buy them. I missed that opportunity. You are all now suggesting that I buy when the price is high. That's much too risky.

I missed the boat. Now I'm trying to decide what is the best course of action.

The allure of investing in Yuan or HK dollars or ringgitt is that I could still buy them for about the same price I could have bought them if I had not missed the boat. See? Then if they would revalue, I could have the same kind of profit that I could have had if I had bought euro or Swiss franc or gold...a few years ago.

By the way, excellent analysis, Vit.

[sleir]

no currency is consistently stronger forever, Sleir, but we do like CHF right now......

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

name me another currency that has been half as strong as the CHF over the years please I think it is still a very, very safe investment, if you can call it that.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You all are not understanding my situation at all. Yes, I am well aware that gold and all those other currencies have appreciated dramatically compared to the dollar. That is why I'm not going to buy them. I missed that opportunity. You are all now suggesting that I buy when the price is high. That's much too risky.

I missed the boat. Now I'm trying to decide what is the best course of action.

The allure of investing in Yuan or HK dollars or ringgitt is that I could still buy them for about the same price I could have bought them if I had not missed the boat. See? Then if they would revalue, I could have the same kind of profit that I could have had if I had bought euro or Swiss franc or gold...a few years ago.

By the way, excellent analysis, Vit.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I believe you have not exactly understood what i wrote either

The CHF has of course, like most other hard currencies, gained in exchange for USD, but it is by far not as speculative a currency as the euro or yen ! So of course you would have been better off buying CHF for USD earlier on, but, unlike the euro which is a lot more dependant on the current economic situation, if you want to be on the truly safe side... buy CHF. As i said earlier on, you will not gain much in the short run, but surely you will not lose either. And that's leaving all that USD vs. Euro speculation beside. Because the CHF is due to its nature the only "true" hard currency left.

[Yangpuss]

Hmmm...anyone know how much the Sw. Franc was worth vis a vis the USD a few years ago? What percent has it appreciated?

[Harmonica]

Sissy Franc will crash out of the rising wedge shown with a violent downside breakout when USD severs her jugular with a single stroke -- anytime during the course of the next few weeks. Count on it!

[Vit42]

Hmmm...anyone know how much the Sw. Franc was worth vis a vis the USD a few years ago? What percent has it appreciated?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Go to link below and click on your favorite currency. You can even download the numbers to your Excel file for "fun" and look up historical values.

http://www.x-rates.com/

[Yangpuss]

Thanks Vit. That page is a good resource!