Property Is It Time To Buy Yet ?

[rolypie]

We have watched the property market closely for the last 3 years,prices have rocketed to rediculous amounts especially with the baht being so strong against the pound and the dollar.

We currently rent but this cannot go on for ever surely all the properties that are for sale must start to bring the prices down ?

[trogers]

We have watched the property market closely for the last 3 years,prices have rocketed to rediculous amounts especially with the baht being so strong against the pound and the dollar.

We currently rent but this cannot go on for ever surely all the properties that are for sale must start to bring the prices down ?

Try the auctions of seized properties.

[johnnyk]

No blanket rules here.

Some falang may be desperate to sell, others not.

Find the despeadoes and try to cut a deal. If they aren't hurting then no incentive to give a deal.

[rolypie]

Seized Properties? are these from Thais, as ive heard of none of these about. where are the auctions?

[trogers]

Seized Properties? are these from Thais, as ive heard of none of these about. where are the auctions?

Their website is in Thai: http://www.led.go.th/

[rolypie]

The site is in thai

Doh!!

[hhgz]

"are farangs hanging on for top prices?"

The vast majority of the Thai real estate is owned by Thais, so I'm not sure why you are only interested in farang-owned property. It would behoove you to look at ALL of the real estate available.

[katabeachbum]

We have watched the property market closely for the last 3 years,prices have rocketed to rediculous amounts especially with the baht being so strong against the pound and the dollar.

We currently rent but this cannot go on for ever surely all the properties that are for sale must start to bring the prices down ?

Most property in LOS (almost all) is owned by thais and sold to thais, so I wonder what poundsterling and usd have to do with it?

The prices will probably not go down as long as inflation is high, but they may not increase for a couple of years.

[LennyW]

There is never a bad time to buy property - IF you can afford to do it!

[midas]

But dont just listen to the estate agents on this forum who say

things like its " never a bad time to buy property "

Consider what will be the fallout from this financial crisis and how will the lack of availability

of credit PLUS a fall in incomes affect the situation in the LONG TERM

Watch these 4 very informative videos from the Khan Academy - easy to follow

and you will see that the conditions for real estate may not be the same as the past for a long time

The series of 4 videos are called " The housing price conundrum " - 2, 3 and 4 will auotomatically

follow #1.

http://www.youtube.com/user/khanacademy?vi...1/0/8IR5LefXVPY

Edited August 1, 2009 by midas

[trogers]

There is never a bad time to buy property - IF you can afford to do it!

Not true of course. People who bought in 2006-2007 are hitting their heads against the wall. Property market is cyclical. The smart investor buys near the bottom of the curve, the herd followers buy near the peak. Same as in the stock market.

There will be distress properties, both Thai and foreign owned. But main consideration should always be not just the price, but LOCATION, state of the building and the social class of occupants, location of the unit in the building, and the internal floor layout of the unit.

[midas]

There is never a bad time to buy property - IF you can afford to do it!

Not true of course. People who bought in 2006-2007 are hitting their heads against the wall. Property market is cyclical. The smart investor buys near the bottom of the curve, the herd followers buy near the peak. Same as in the stock market.

There will be distress properties, both Thai and foreign owned. But main consideration should always be not just the price, but LOCATION, state of the building and the social class of occupants, location of the unit in the building, and the internal floor layout of the unit.

This is not a cycle ..........this is a structural change happening globally

and it will become apparent as this crisis fails drags on just out of whack real estate prices are

in relation to their salaries

Edited August 1, 2009 by midas

[trogers]

There is never a bad time to buy property - IF you can afford to do it!

Not true of course. People who bought in 2006-2007 are hitting their heads against the wall. Property market is cyclical. The smart investor buys near the bottom of the curve, the herd followers buy near the peak. Same as in the stock market.

There will be distress properties, both Thai and foreign owned. But main consideration should always be not just the price, but LOCATION, state of the building and the social class of occupants, location of the unit in the building, and the internal floor layout of the unit.

This is not a cycle ..........this is a structural change happening globally

and it will become apparent as this crisis fails drags on just out of whack real estate prices are

in relation to their salaries

All major property cycles see prices rising out of whack with fundamentals - income or rental values. If not, there will be no cycles, but a close correlation between property prices and long term economic growth. See this happening in the stock market?

The present crisis is an over-inflated property market in the US and a banking and financial crisis due to these sectors lubricating that market with no consideration of default risks.

The property market in Bangkok is more resilient, as banks here did not lend out to any local sub-prime.

Most projects taking a hit are those that targeted foreign buyers - see Raimon Land.

[craigt3365]

Wow...that Khan Academy is amazing. Great stuff. Thanks!

Agreed that most markets are NOT like the US. I was in Argentina a few months ago. No housing crisis there as most folks pay cash for houses...of course they are having other problems....

I have been poking around a little and have started to see places being discounted. People who put a deposit down and now want out. Some are willing to take a little hit, meaning you can get it for LESS than what it sold for initially. Even seen a few developers selling places at the original price less the deposit for places that they have taken back. Potentially a good deal...

[midas]

The present crisis is an over-inflated property market in the US and a banking and financial crisis due to these sectors lubricating that market with no consideration of default risks.

The property market in Bangkok is more resilient, as banks here did not lend out to any local sub-prime.

Most projects taking a hit are those that targeted foreign buyers - see Raimon Land.

Its going to take a very long time to work out - its only just started

and Thailand cant survive on its own

- not with average salaries at 8,000 baht per month.

maybe I will be more optimistic when the world's biggest economy

is no longer exposed to a liability of nearly $24 trillion, or $80,000 for every American

[trogers]

The present crisis is an over-inflated property market in the US and a banking and financial crisis due to these sectors lubricating that market with no consideration of default risks.

The property market in Bangkok is more resilient, as banks here did not lend out to any local sub-prime.

Most projects taking a hit are those that targeted foreign buyers - see Raimon Land.

Its going to take a very long time to work out - its only just started

and Thailand cant survive on its own

- not with average salaries at 8,000 baht per month.

maybe I will be more optimistic when the world's biggest economy

is no longer exposed to a liability of nearly $24 trillion, or $80,000 for every American

How much and how long each country (not counting the US) will suffer will depend on a few factors: how much their financial sector are burnt by the sub-prime issue, how much their economies rely on US imports, investments and tourism, and how fast they can re-structure their economies to create a stronger domestic market.

One outcome of this crisis is that many major US trading partners may be planning to unhinge reliance on the Dollar, and let the US settle its own trillion dollars debt. The world may leave the US behind. When this happen, Thai baht may become Bt10 to the dollar, and it will be time for me to buy some US properties.

[midas]

How much and how long each country (not counting the US) will suffer will depend on a few factors: how much their financial sector are burnt by the sub-prime issue, how much their economies rely on US imports, investments and tourism, and how fast they can re-structure their economies to create a stronger domestic market.

One outcome of this crisis is that many major US trading partners may be planning to unhinge reliance on the Dollar, and let the US settle its own trillion dollars debt. The world may leave the US behind. When this happen, Thai baht may become Bt10 to the dollar, and it will be time for me to buy some US properties.

Going back to the OP's question, what possible reason is there to buy now?

My argument is the condo market can't remain strong without a continual

stream of farang buyers.There are only so many " rich Thai's "willing to participate in the condominium

market ( most much prefer land and buildings )and like i said the rest are earning about 8,000 baht per month.

Regarding farang buyers, you don't tend to see many from South America,

Africa or even Asia for that matter. That leaves U.S.A., Europe and Australia.

The unemployment situation is drastic in U.S.A. and Europe.

When ( or should I say if because I don't think it's going to happen )

I see the unemployment situation noticeably improve in U.S.A. and Europe

how do you know if "farangs " in fact will end up having to quickly offload their existing property

in Thailand to meet their increasing financial obligations in their own country?

These are early days...........................

[zorro1]

The financial crisis is starting its reversal, by the time that you are aware we have recovered so will property owners

The best time to buy is right now however don't expect a bean off the price of a new condo. I just took a mate to have a look at another condo I bought 8 months ago down at the showroom. He loved it and wanted to buy on the spot NO DISCOUNT SIR SORRY... Even more bizarre she wouldn't take his down payment without a passport and told him to come back on Monday <deleted>? He got a taxi back the same day and bought. The showroom was full of Thais . Now secondhand maybe a little different but I doubt it. I say buy now and ignore the renters. If i hadn't bought 2 years ago I would have paid 30% more in rent due to exchange rate melting down so don't listen to the naysayers most don't actually have any money

P.s

Follow what the stock market is doing, we`are going through one of the fastest rises in history over the last 6 months. Personally I would put all my cash into the markets before buying a property but either way at the bottom of the cycle you wont go wrong. And please lets not here any talk of the next great depression, peed myself laughing when I read some post on TV , that was my buy signal into the Markets, good luck.

[midas]

The financial crisis is starting its reversal, by the time that you are aware we have recovered so will property owners

The best time to buy is right now however don't expect a bean off the price of a new condo. I just took a mate to have a look at another condo I bought 8 months ago down at the showroom. He loved it and wanted to buy on the spot NO DISCOUNT SIR SORRY... Even more bizarre she wouldn't take his down payment without a passport and told him to come back on Monday <deleted>? He got a taxi back the same day and bought. The showroom was full of Thais . Now secondhand maybe a little different but I doubt it. I say buy now and ignore the renters. If i hadn't bought 2 years ago I would have paid 30% more in rent due to exchange rate melting down so don't listen to the naysayers most don't actually have any money

P.s

Follow what the stock market is doing, we`are going through one of the fastest rises in history over the last 6 months. Personally I would put all my cash into the markets before buying a property but either way at the bottom of the cycle you wont go wrong. And please lets not here any talk of the next great depression, peed myself laughing when I read some post on TV , that was my buy signal into the Markets, good luck.

Aha zorro1 is back to spread some that " green shoots " gospel AMEN

" Follow what the stock market is doing " funny that is exactly what they said in 1929

[zorro1]

Ha Ha I knew you would welcome me back LOL. in 1928 The USA and nearly every other civilised country didnt throw a gazzilion dollars at the economy did it Midas? Did you miss the" news week" front page last week, picture of a party balloon stating we are recovering from the recession?

Anyhow don't want to hijack the thread as I said by the time you and the rest of the doomsayers are officially told that we have recovered then what do you think will happen to property prices ? errrmmm......

[midas]

Ha Ha I knew you would welcome me back LOL. in 1928 The USA and nearly every other civilised country didnt throw a gazzilion dollars at the economy did it Midas? Did you miss the" news week" front page last week, picture of a party balloon stating we are recovering from the recession?

Anyhow don't want to hijack the thread as I said by the time you and the rest of the doomsayers are officially told that we have recovered then what do you think will happen to property prices ? errrmmm......

Oh come on Zorro you must be more intelligent than to believe Obama spin

Happy Days Aren’t Here Again (The recession is over??? then the Depression is coming)

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2305731/posts

[zorro1]

The trend is your friend Midas. Buck the trend at your own peril, just look at the disaster that happened world wide. There was a downtrend and many ignored it. Now we are in an uptrend. The markets and property are joined at the hip. Last friday concluded the second most overbought situation in american stock in history. Property will follow make no mistake its just that its not as quick and as visual as the markets

just repeat this mantra

the trend is your friend

the trend is your friend

the trend is your fr................

[midas]

The trend is your friend Midas. Buck the trend at your own peril, just look at the disaster that happened world wide. There was a downtrend and many ignored it. Now we are in an uptrend. The markets and property are joined at the hip. Last friday concluded the second most overbought situation in american stock in history. Property will follow make no mistake its just that its not as quick and as visual as the markets

just repeat this mantra

the trend is your friend

the trend is your friend

the trend is your fr................

but what happens after the stimulus money runs out............oh boy what a hangover there will be

[midas]

The financial crisis is starting its reversal, by the time that you are aware we have recovered so will property owners

The best time to buy is right now however don't expect a bean off the price of a new condo. I just took a mate to have a look at another condo I bought 8 months ago down at the showroom. He loved it and wanted to buy on the spot NO DISCOUNT SIR SORRY... Even more bizarre she wouldn't take his down payment without a passport and told him to come back on Monday <deleted>? He got a taxi back the same day and bought. The showroom was full of Thais . Now secondhand maybe a little different but I doubt it. I say buy now and ignore the renters. If i hadn't bought 2 years ago I would have paid 30% more in rent due to exchange rate melting down so don't listen to the naysayers most don't actually have any money

P.s

Follow what the stock market is doing, we`are going through one of the fastest rises in history over the last 6 months. Personally I would put all my cash into the markets before buying a property but either way at the bottom of the cycle you wont go wrong. And please lets not here any talk of the next great depression, peed myself laughing when I read some post on TV , that was my buy signal into the Markets, good luck.

Hey Zorro !

You were saying about the outlook for the Thailand condo market ……………………

Thai Economy not bottomed out yet

By John Le Fevre

BANGKOK (thaivisa.com): -- Former deputy prime minister Veerapong Ramangku has told a seminar organized by a former executive of the now defunct Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party that the Thai economy had not yet hit rock bottom and predicted that the economy in the latter half of the year and the first half of 2010 will worsen.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thai-Economy...ed-t285031.html

And over in the USA 5 more banks collapsed yesterday …. that is 69 so far this year.... and the number will change again next Friday.

I suppose Obama and cronies will be telling everyone next that bank failures are

a “ lagging indictor “ also like unemployment

[trogers]

The financial crisis is starting its reversal, by the time that you are aware we have recovered so will property owners

The best time to buy is right now however don't expect a bean off the price of a new condo. I just took a mate to have a look at another condo I bought 8 months ago down at the showroom. He loved it and wanted to buy on the spot NO DISCOUNT SIR SORRY... Even more bizarre she wouldn't take his down payment without a passport and told him to come back on Monday <deleted>? He got a taxi back the same day and bought. The showroom was full of Thais . Now secondhand maybe a little different but I doubt it. I say buy now and ignore the renters. If i hadn't bought 2 years ago I would have paid 30% more in rent due to exchange rate melting down so don't listen to the naysayers most don't actually have any money

P.s

Follow what the stock market is doing, we`are going through one of the fastest rises in history over the last 6 months. Personally I would put all my cash into the markets before buying a property but either way at the bottom of the cycle you wont go wrong. And please lets not here any talk of the next great depression, peed myself laughing when I read some post on TV , that was my buy signal into the Markets, good luck.

Hey Zorro !

You were saying about the outlook for the Thailand condo market ……………………

Thai Economy not bottomed out yet

By John Le Fevre

BANGKOK (thaivisa.com): -- Former deputy prime minister Veerapong Ramangku has told a seminar organized by a former executive of the now defunct Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party that the Thai economy had not yet hit rock bottom and predicted that the economy in the latter half of the year and the first half of 2010 will worsen.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thai-Economy...ed-t285031.html

And over in the USA 5 more banks collapsed yesterday …. that is 69 so far this year.... and the number will change again next Friday.

I suppose Obama and cronies will be telling everyone next that bank failures are

a " lagging indictor " also like unemployment

When did analysts start believing the words of politicians?

I remember a certain minister of the previous government promoted bank stocks in 1996 - saying it is a good buy at Bt100 per share, the same price as a stalk of rose on St. Valentines Day. And the Tom Yum Kung crisis hit in 1997, and share prices took a 70+% dive.

[zorro1]

I agree Midas, but your supposed to buy BEFORE the recovery, not when we are told 'We have now recovered" WOW you choose to believe a thai politician ROFL your smarter than that ,deputy prime minister Veerapong Ramangku would be buying everything on offer with his stolen money whilst trying to spook the markets with his down ramping LOL

Every man and his dog knows recovery wont be until at least mid 2010 which puts us around the bottom in March this year. Thats why the smart money is hitting property and the Markets around 6 mths ago just look at the gains in the DOW . I bought more property and Stock HEAVILY in NOV You should know as we have had this conversation in the past. Modesty prevents me from reveling the gains made. If you want to make money in property buy now. Sitting on the sidelines never made anyone rich

Edited August 1, 2009 by zorro1

[trogers]

I agree Midas, but your supposed to buy BEFORE the recovery, not when we are told 'We have now recovered"

Every man and his dog knows recovery wont be until at least mid 2010 which puts us around the bottom in March this year. Thats why the smart money is hitting property and the Markets around 6 mths ago just look at the gains in the DOW . I bought more property and Stock HEAVILY in NOV You should know as we have had this conversation in the past. Modesty prevents me from reveling the gains made. If you want to make money in property buy now. Sitting on the sidelines never made anyone rich

I bought my 5 condo units between Aug 2008 and Jan 2009.

Edited August 1, 2009 by trogers

[zorro1]

Smart move. Buying when there is blood on the streets will set you up very well when the sheep come charging back

[midas]

Smart move. Buying when there is blood on the streets will set you up very well when the sheep come charging back

I HAVE A DREAM !!!

[robert10]

I agree Midas, but your supposed to buy BEFORE the recovery, not when we are told 'We have now recovered"

Every man and his dog knows recovery wont be until at least mid 2010 which puts us around the bottom in March this year. Thats why the smart money is hitting property and the Markets around 6 mths ago just look at the gains in the DOW . I bought more property and Stock HEAVILY in NOV You should know as we have had this conversation in the past. Modesty prevents me from reveling the gains made. If you want to make money in property buy now. Sitting on the sidelines never made anyone rich

I bought my 5 condo units between Aug 2008 and Jan 2009.

You must have got them for a good price. Please share with us the discount off the peak price and the price range (in thb psm) for these condos. I'm looking to buy condo too but my impression is that Thai condo prices haven't corrected in the past year and sellers are still asking for peak prices for 07/08.

Condos in Sukhumvit area are asking 110-140 Kpsm easily. Are these sustainable price levels? They seem rather ridiculously expensive to me.

Edited August 1, 2009 by robert10