The Stock Market

[flying]

Sorry if my post is confusing. I was responding to Zorro's comments re the Dow and gold rallying in tandem.

Thanks for posting the chart for gold price in Euros. It does show that during most of the period that the markets were rising, gold was actually quite stable pricewise in Euros. It's also lower now than it was when the markets were at the bottom.

I should re-phrase. It is the conversion that confused me.

I never realized the Euro was so weak back in Oct 08

10/30/08 0.78230

In hindsight I guess that was the buy

Sorry just noticed I posted that backwards earlier....

posted usd>euro instead of euro>usd

11/13/08 low for gold

Euro was 1.25 to the dollar

But you say gold is lower now than at the market bottom....

For me since the market is gold....

Nov 13-2008 was bottom say $720

Euro was at 1.25/1usd so 576

Gold is now 1016 as I write

Euro is at 1.46/1usd so 695

So am I looking at it wrong? Or is gold higher than market bottom in both USD & Euro?

[loong]

It's also lower now than it was when the markets were at the bottom.

Sorry, we were talking about the price of gold in relation to the stockmarkets, so you should read that as ...

It's also lower now than it was when the Stock markets were at the bottom.

[zorro1]

looks like another rally on the cards. GOLD is the hottest topic on every traders forum. Looks like Dow and gold may rally tonight. What a great time to be in the markets. Futures looking strong

[Naam]

looks like another rally on the cards. GOLD is the hottest topic on every traders forum. Looks like Dow and gold may rally tonight. What a great time to be in the markets. Futures looking strong

your greed is disgusting Zorro!

[Abrak]

Who knows but as Most analysts are now saying, throw out the rule book why buck the trend........for now, only for now..

Very true. However, I see this as rather worrying. Great analysis eh? Usually it is a pointer that things are pretty near their top.

Markets looked better a couple of months ago when most analysts were expecting a pull back.

[basjke]

BREAKING STORY

Ben S. Bernanke just stated the recession "probably over" the markets react instantly both oil and gold through 1000. Still early but looking good.

Not sure if you meant that sarcastically?

Because when gold moves up I do not see it as a sign of hope in recovery.

You probably meant it as a joke yes?

If I ever truly feel the recession is over I would be a seller of gold & silver.

I doubt the price would be rising if other like me were all selling.

Gold has been moving up with dow last few months. Or have I missed something? I cant imagine the dow hitting 11000 and gold going back to 7000 . I read somewhere when gold rallys with the dow then its a start of a bull market. I may have it wrong thats why I dont post on the gold thread

the only reason gold rallies is because the dollar is falling.

[zorro1]

looks like another rally on the cards. GOLD is the hottest topic on every traders forum. Looks like Dow and gold may rally tonight. What a great time to be in the markets. Futures looking strong

your greed is disgusting Zorro!

Edited September 16, 2009 by zorro1

[zorro1]

Who knows but as Most analysts are now saying, throw out the rule book why buck the trend........for now, only for now..

Very true. However, I see this as rather worrying. Great analysis eh? Usually it is a pointer that things are pretty near their top.

Markets looked better a couple of months ago when most analysts were expecting a pull back.

Most if not ALL , at least 99% were still calling Rio and Bhp strong buys well into the crash. And now they getting it wrong on the way up and they KNOW it!

Makes total sense to me. wrong going down , wrong going up. action/reaction ignore them , the market is never wrong. The best thing I did was stopped watching cnbc around 4 months ago. They were doing my head in, the dow drops 10 points and all they stream is negative data and that silly woman on bloomberg the keeps saying in a nasally American accent " and the dow is under pressure now losing 11 points on open" Thats their job to create drama not to advise and to many punters buy the drama

[zorro1]

Junior goldies have made unbelievable gains last few months and still considered cheap I own a few . Would you put a buy on physical gold now?

If I had none yes I probably would be inclined though I believe it will top around Sept 24th

You remember how many times in this thread I mentioned Sept 15th? That was the start & so far it seems on cue.

I also believe there will be another climb in Oct possible double top.... but by Nov could be on the wane...Remains to be seen what happens in Oct. If the double top occurs will it break out again or?

Physical gold is not something I push. Folks need to have their own reasons for holding it. Folks looking to trade to try & make money off gold would probably be better served with paper trading gold miners etc.

But as a side note....Silver is always overlooked. Silver is paving the way for gold & in the long run will probably have better overall gains. Just my 2 cents & not a recommendation to buy anything.

"But as a side note....Silver is always overlooked. Silver is paving the way for gold & in the long run will probably have better overall gains. Just my 2 cents & not a recommendation to buy anything."

yes so true many ignore silver but it has been under the hammer for so long and broken out above $16 with way more upside, I agree with you silver will and is flying hard now. I regret trading ccu several times for nice gains however regret not going hard n long, it really broke out last week so now looking at buying silver stock whilst every one lapping up every gold junior on the market.

Edited September 16, 2009 by zorro1

[zorro1]

Who knows but as Most analysts are now saying, throw out the rule book why buck the trend........for now, only for now..

Very true. However, I see this as rather worrying. Great analysis eh? Usually it is a pointer that things are pretty near their top.

Markets looked better a couple of months ago when most analysts were expecting a pull back.

Most if not ALL , at least 99% were still calling Rio and Bhp strong buys well into the crash. And now they getting it wrong on the way up and they KNOW it!

Makes total sense to me. wrong going down , wrong going up. action/reaction ignore them , the market is never wrong. The best thing I did was stopped watching cnbc around 4 months ago. They were doing my head in, the dow drops 10 points and all they stream is negative data and that silly woman on bloomberg the keeps saying in a nasally American accent " and the dow is under pressure now losing 11 points on open" Thats their job to create drama not to advise and to many punters buy the drama

Sorry in advance for this cut n paste but couldnt help it dated 7 th sept BBC. Sums up my thoughts on Anaylists

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8237553.stm

How the forecasters got it wrong

The severity of the global economic downturn was not anticipated by policymakers.

As a result they took relatively little corrective action in the early stages of the crisis, hoping markets would correct themselves.

Even at the height of the global financial panic, the International Monetary Fund, whose role is surveillance of the global economic system, was still forecasting only a mild slowdown.

Forecasts were rapidly revised downwards during the first half of 2009 - and now are being revised upwards again, as optimism has returned.

Despite the fact that the credit crunch started in August 2007, many months later, most forecasters were focused on the spike in oil and food prices and the threat to inflation.

Edited September 16, 2009 by zorro1

[lannarebirth]

Who knows but as Most analysts are now saying, throw out the rule book why buck the trend........for now, only for now..

Very true. However, I see this as rather worrying. Great analysis eh? Usually it is a pointer that things are pretty near their top.

Markets looked better a couple of months ago when most analysts were expecting a pull back.

It's almost never different this time.

Price is attracted to areas of great transactional volume. A relative "volume vacuum" exists in this price range.

[Abrak]

Personally I am also a bit worried by Ben Bernanke calling the end of the recession. He is a pretty good contra-indicator. I mean think about markets begin to pre-discount economies 6 months in advance and 6 months later September we announce the end of the recession.

The bulls like Zorro are getting twitchy (I am in today cos the market is going up but if it tops out I am getting out (and well before others do)). The bears like Midas simply are not going to get in even if the market goes up. Analysts are throwing fundamentals out of the window and just telling people to join the party. Value investors are actually in (but a lot less than before) because if you find value the remaining bears who are jumping in (who tend to be value orientated) jump all over it. Volumes are rubbish.

We have had most of the fun.

[lannarebirth]

Who knows but as Most analysts are now saying, throw out the rule book why buck the trend........for now, only for now..

Very true. However, I see this as rather worrying. Great analysis eh? Usually it is a pointer that things are pretty near their top.

Markets looked better a couple of months ago when most analysts were expecting a pull back.

It's almost never different this time.

Price is attracted to areas of great transactional volume. A relative "volume vacuum" exists in this price range.

To put a finer point on the volume vacuum:

The greatest Open Interest for SPX triple witching expiration lies at 1000. Probably not gonna get there, so players need to go long. After options expire at Fridays open, things could get interesting.

edit: The bar graph indicator on the left of the chart is a Volume by Price indicator if that wasn't clear.

Edited September 16, 2009 by lannarebirth

[flying]

the only reason gold rallies is because the dollar is falling.

Gold has also risen many days this year without the $ falling

Personally I am also a bit worried by Ben Bernanke calling the end of the recession.

While he did say *probably ended* I think anyone with eyes & ears knows otherwise.

But that aside I fully expect the dollar to rally days after his speech. They can & will do anything to convince.

Edited September 16, 2009 by flying

[Thaipwriter]

Short are getting their eyebrows punched off their heads again today.

Now that 1056.89 has fallen, next sign of any resistance is 1072.91, after that its pretty much an easy climb to 1099.23. Not sure what that would relate to on the dow, probably 10,000.

Anybody got an old "Dow 10,000" hat in the bottom of their wardrobe to dig out?

[Abrak]

Personally I am also a bit worried by Ben Bernanke calling the end of the recession.

While he did say *probably ended* I think anyone with eyes & ears knows otherwise.

But that aside I fully expect the dollar to rally days after his speech. They can & will do anything to convince.

Well I do have respect for Bernanke but I dont believe a word he says. 100% of 54 economists polled forecast growth over the next 12 months (that seems a little odd). Money supply numbers are going off the chart downwards. Not good.

Bernanke always says probably

[flying]

Well I do have respect for Bernanke but I dont believe a word he says. 100% of 54 economists polled forecast growth over the next 12 months (that seems a little odd). Money supply numbers are going off the chart downwards. Not good.

Bernanke always says probably

Agreed but I always get the impression Bernanke wants to put a ? mark after his statements ...probably over?

[zorro1]

Somebody is listening to him. Dow up over 100!! on good volume. 10,000 here we come done deal . This v recovery is unbelievably starting to play out. We keep smashing through turn points on the dow. 9616 gone. Most have short memories, we had the crash it was horrific, transfer of wealth has occurred and time to move on, looks like history wont repeat. Go you good thing!

[zorro1]

Personally I am also a bit worried by Ben Bernanke calling the end of the recession. He is a pretty good contra-indicator. I mean think about markets begin to pre-discount economies 6 months in advance and 6 months later September we announce the end of the recession.

The bulls like Zorro are getting twitchy (I am in today cos the market is going up but if it tops out I am getting out (and well before others do)). The bears like Midas simply are not going to get in even if the market goes up. Analysts are throwing fundamentals out of the window and just telling people to join the party. Value investors are actually in (but a lot less than before) because if you find value the remaining bears who are jumping in (who tend to be value orientated) jump all over it. Volumes are rubbish.

We have had most of the fun.

Zorro only twitchy at dow turn points. Zorro was petrified when buying last year wealth destruction much much scarier than preservation

[zorro1]

Short are getting their eyebrows punched off their heads again today.

Now that 1056.89 has fallen, next sign of any resistance is 1072.91, after that its pretty much an easy climb to 1099.23. Not sure what that would relate to on the dow, probably 10,000.

Anybody got an old "Dow 10,000" hat in the bottom of their wardrobe to dig out?

hey do you notice the same pattern every day. Profit takers drive Dow down on open followed by massive bargain hunting by new bulls. Very healthy scenario

[flying]

Most have short memories, we had the crash it was horrific, transfer of wealth has occurred and time to move on, looks like history wont repeat.

I am happy your happy,,,but boy do we see it differently,,,,& nothing wrong with that

But...

I cannot believe that folks would think that tickle they call crash pain was anything remotely resembling what the real deal will impart. As for history repeating....way early to tell.

If & when I see a logical attempt to remedy the situation then I will breath easier.

Till than all the FED & TPTB have done is kick the can further down the road. But the can not only rolled down the road it grew...IMHO FWIW

Edited September 16, 2009 by flying

[zorro1]

Flying its all fun when were on a winner so Lets ride it to 10000 first and re asses from there, don't worry I'm not going to sit there if we retrace to 6500 (aint gonna happen ) but if some catastrophic event occurred then I would jump the fence and short but will need to check with Midas and see if that's disgusting gaining up and then gaining down. Naam is that disgusting?

[Naam]

Flying its all fun when were on a winner so Lets ride it to 10000 first and re asses from there, don't worry I'm not going to sit there if we retrace to 6500 (aint gonna happen ) but if some catastrophic event occurred then I would jump the fence and short but will need to check with Midas and see if that's disgusting gaining up and then gaining down. Naam is that disgusting?

of course it is. but much more disgusting is the presence of greedy capitalists like you in peaceful and pious Pattaya

[flying]

Stock Market Rally : Shenanigans Abounding

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Good Read.............

The government is anxious to encourage 'confidence' to the extent of skewing the statistics to create hope in the public, the consumers.

Obama and his team have NO credibility for reform on Wall Street after their handling of Goldman Sachs and the AIG payouts. We hear that Goldman had shopped the idea of those derivatives to the London office of AIG which was up for a quick quid, became their biggest customer, and then when the music stopped they managed to obtain the 100 cents on the dollar payouts from the government even as AIG became hopelessly insolvent.

Until the banks are restrained, and the financial system is reformed, and balance is restored to the economy, there will be no sustained recovery.

[Naam]

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

yada... yada... yada... fox... sour grapes...

[flying]

Junior goldies have made unbelievable gains last few months and still considered cheap I own a few . Would you put a buy on physical gold now?

I know I answered you yesterday but here is a thought ...not a recommendation.

As an aside, to anyone who can read a chart and as you can plainly see for yourself, gold is in an obvious bull market. If you are dealing with someone who says it is not then they can only a) be incapable of reading a chart, be blinded by a mistaken belief, or c) be talking their or someone else's book. There seem to be a few analysts, never bullish on gold in a spectacular bull market, working for major gold trading houses, that fit into this last category.

So, gold appears to be targeting somewhere just north of 1300 for this leg of its bull market. As it says on the chart, this is a LONG term projection, and it should therefore be expected to play out over the LONG term.

The lower bound on gold on these formations is higher than 925 so we would not expect gold to trade lower than that while these formations are 'working.'

Full article here

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Gold-Market-...80#entry3017080

or original

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Edited September 17, 2009 by flying

[midas]

Somebody is listening to him. Dow up over 100!! on good volume. 10,000 here we come done deal . This v recovery is unbelievably starting to play out. We keep smashing through turn points on the dow. 9616 gone. Most have short memories, we had the crash it was horrific, transfer of wealth has occurred and time to move on, looks like history wont repeat. Go you good thing!

hang on zorro now you are stretching things

You have been arguing in this thread that it doesnt matter about fundamentals because the market

is trading on " momentum and sentiment ". But oh dear....now you are starting become delusional ......

that is what happens with gambling addiction.

I dont think I have read any source whatsoever that genuinely believes

there is anything behind these movement except robots trading between each other

and i disagree with you that it is " good volume ".

the consumer is tapped out and can't afford to buy (witness the FHA default rates

in excess of 20%!) and those who DO buy anyway find themselves in a

financial position they cannot really afford and didn't think through.

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Chrysler Group LLC, the U.S. automaker run by Fiat SpA, said nationwide industry sales are off 19 percent so far this month after a government purchase- incentive program ended.

“We are going to see harsh reality in September,” Sergio Marchionne, the chief executive officer of Fiat and Chrysler, said at the Frankfurt Motor Show. He described the U.S. industry results as a “disaster.” Fritz Henderson, CEO of General Motors Co., said the market is “very weak” this month.

[badge]

This helps

http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/

I think stocks are due a reaction, but I can see them eventually going higher; perhaps DOW 10500/SPX1150

Im firmly in the "W" camp though.

[lannarebirth]

This helps

http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/

I think stocks are due a reaction, but I can see them eventually going higher; perhaps DOW 10500/SPX1150

Im firmly in the "W" camp though.

Pretty solid resistance at 1150, much more at 1200 where a ton of overhead supply awaits. I have a corrective window starting the 18th till the middle of October. The later the correction starts in that period, the sharper I would expect it to be. BWDIK

[midas]

This helps

http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/

I think stocks are due a reaction, but I can see them eventually going higher; perhaps DOW 10500/SPX1150

Im firmly in the "W" camp though.

yes agreed ............but the " program " probably wont allow that to happen

I like Art Cashin ........... in the Rick Santelli camp.

"We'll let the party continue, I am just not going to partake of the tainted food"

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sidelines...tary-art-cashin