The Stock Market

[zorro1]

I do think US markets have one thing working for them. They have been about the worst performing markets in about the worst performing currency. People who invest in equity funds expect to be invested in equities. The temptation to switch from a mega performer into a dog must be quite strong at this time of year.

About sums it up Flying well put. Rhubini now suggesting a U recovery so next month or so I dont think we will see much except consolidation, accumulation. the W recovery is defiantly losing steam and so is the V . Consolidation would be the best result for myself, being bullish it will create stronger forward momentum as long as the data improves .001% every day Im happy to stay here for as long as it takes :-) patience something grasshopper Midas is yet to appreciate

I agree with you about the economics - I did predict a W but that is losing steam and there never was any steam in a V. I disagree though on two counts (1) I believe that next quarters growth will be at best the same as last quarters, so on average the news will be bad and (2) what I like in stockmarkets is volatility (which as you know is priced to give a discount) to me volatility is simply opportunity. Unlike a bond, stocks are much more difficult to value with any certainty, so you need volatility in actual valuation to make up for volatility in theoretical value. So as I see it the fact that we have say 5 years of 1-2% growth provides little opportunity at all - there will be no new lows and no new highs.

P.S. I have no objection to be referred to as Flying but it is quite likely he might object to be referred to as Abrak

Hey FlyBrak

I agree 100% if your referring to blue chip however there are some severely battered stocks out there with good fundamentals and have a lot of catching up to do so still many multi baggers out there I love dogs is the new sentiment. Actually some of the fleas that I bought 1 mill shares at 1c then sold for no gain or a loss are starting to find there legs just now. Volatility = opportunity will be interesting few months

[Abrak]

You know (and this is a bit of a deep thought for me) I was wondering why the US has been such a bad performer since the beginning of the year. Well the fact that US$290bn has gone into bonds and US$15bn into equities is a good start. As someone pointed out earlier in this thread the spirit of capitalism seems to be missing in the USA (I am not saying that it is there elsewhere but it wasnt expected.)

If you look at the great entrepreneurs whether it be Bill Gates or Henry Ford they wished to create something of value (and wealth for themselves and their shareholders would follow). Now you look at the US and the average CEO simply wishes to create value for himself (sometimes at the expense of shareholders). I also believe that spirit is lost in the individual worker, in the past they wished to build a company and believe they would be rewarded for it, now they jump ship for an extra 20%, partly because they know they will be dumped if the quarterly results are bad.

If you go to the very essence of economics as described by Malthus (I think) it was all to do with pooling resources to produce lots of pins rather than acting as individuals. Without that spirit there is little value creation. (Apologies for the nature moment.)

[Abrak]

Hey FlyBrak

I agree 100% if your referring to blue chip however there are some severely battered stocks out there with good fundamentals and have a lot of catching up to do so still many multi baggers out there I love dogs is the new sentiment. Actually some of the fleas that I bought 1 mill shares at 1c then sold for no gain or a loss are starting to find there legs just now. Volatility = opportunity will be interesting few months

I would agree with you 100%. The market went down so far and so fast that many stocks just fell indiscriminately. And then rose so fast that many stocks rose indiscriminately. That historic volatility is bound to have left some great opportunities. Stocks that fell 80% and have rebounded 20% without much change to their fundamentals. I dont know the market but they will definitely be there. And they will rise 50% even if the market doesnt move. To me what happens to your market over the next year is just noise - no particular reason to think it will be higher or lower. The type of thing I would be doing is screens of underperformer/outperformers, screens of stocks trading on a variance to their PEs, screens of stocks trading at very low multiples of peak earnings. The fall was so sharp and the rise has been so sharp there are bound to be outlyers that will make you 50% in a year even if the market goes nowhere. I say this on the basis I have traded a market for 15 years that has gone up less than 5% in total.

[zorro1]

Hey FlyBrak

I agree 100% if your referring to blue chip however there are some severely battered stocks out there with good fundamentals and have a lot of catching up to do so still many multi baggers out there I love dogs is the new sentiment. Actually some of the fleas that I bought 1 mill shares at 1c then sold for no gain or a loss are starting to find there legs just now. Volatility = opportunity will be interesting few months

I would agree with you 100%. The market went down so far and so fast that many stocks just fell indiscriminately. And then rose so fast that many stocks rose indiscriminately. That historic volatility is bound to have left some great opportunities. Stocks that fell 80% and have rebounded 20% without much change to their fundamentals. I dont know the market but they will definitely be there. And they will rise 50% even if the market doesnt move. To me what happens to your market over the next year is just noise - no particular reason to think it will be higher or lower. The type of thing I would be doing is screens of underperformer/outperformers, screens of stocks trading on a variance to their PEs, screens of stocks trading at very low multiples of peak earnings. The fall was so sharp and the rise has been so sharp there are bound to be outlyers that will make you 50% in a year even if the market goes nowhere. I say this on the basis I have traded a market for 15 years that has gone up less than 5% in total.

Gee I was just wiping a tear from your last post......How about Buffet? We all know Buffet gets special deals however This is his biggest deal ever, he's paying a 30% premium and it's one of the most expensive rail operators there are in US (according to Bloomberg's P/E measures). He doesn't make mistakes so why choose this point in the markets to do something like that? Fact t/overs never or rarely happen at the bottom of the markets, I don't know why but they either occur on the way up or at the very top. Look at Rio/BHP last year. Buffet really took every one by surprise and the thing is he never changes management or rarely so. Just buys and lets them get on with it. But why now? speaks volumes ..they are still out there and will start to emerge but it will take time. cant blame them for staying away from equities back then but they are returning but we have a long way to go. In times of recovery one should look for stocks as you mentioned specially that just fell 80% for nothing. I have 2 explorers that I will see through to mining , will take 5-10 years but some $1 stock will be $20 eventually. , They were already $7 before GFC.

[Abrak]

.......

Edited November 5, 2009 by Abrak

[zorro1]

I can't believe i am reading ziz!

Dont encourage him puleeez , his lying in the fetal position sucking his thumb and watching what he thinks is a live futures ticker, should I tell him its 20 mins delayed? he must be getting good at thumb sucking , at least his good at something he just slowing down broadband for everyone here taking up valuable bandwidth, posting total crap

Mr. Zero uuuur Zorro, you you you miserable piece of daytrader. Never in my live have I been insulted on a scale like this Mr. Zero Zorro Sorrow. You have either made a gigantic mistake or just have no idea (which would not be surprising when looking at some of your trade calls) who is me.

Alex "The Quake" Lah

http://static.thaivisa.com/forum/style_emo...lt/rolleyes.gif

Dont worry Alex.........zorro isnt getting at you.

its just his daily frustration of being unable to shake off his acute pathalogical state

You see zorro will not not admit to this simple truth " The gambling known as business looks with severe disfavor on the business known as gambling "

Hey I resemble that Pic

I did call a heavy buy on gold at $1000 its there for all to see. I don't have a safe so figured why not wear it? I also have gold budgie smugglers but they not real, they just for effect

[Abrak]

Gee I was just wiping a tear from your last post......How about Buffet?

Well to be honest I never understand the concept of Buffets. I mean why come all the way to Thailand and have to serve your own food. Have you also noticed that it always looks great but by the time you have loaded up your plate it tends to look like a microwave meal from Tops.

My theory on Buffett is that whether he is the smartest investor in the world or not he has a huge disadvantage. The real opportunities will be in the US$50m stocks, we can put in US$250k and the return will make a difference to us. He can buy the whole company and if it doubles it wont register.

[flying]

No I dont take offense to being called Abrak...or anything but not Sue

As for Buffet I said it before but I imagine he is privy to info most are not.

His biggest purchase 34B for this rail could seen as many things...Bearish;)

Higher energy costs higher oil etc means more rail work for shipping across US

yet at the same time he can truthfully say he is investing in America....Bullish

Could also mean he wanted to get rid of cash now too. He/ Berkshire takes a big

chunk of devaluing currency & gets a tangible.... bearish or bullish?

He did well in his buy & hold days of coca cola then even in this crisis got preferential deals.

10% preferred Goldman Sachs...Didn't he also get a deal of some kind on GE?

I'm guessing with that GS line he gets info galore...not that he didn't before

[AlexLah]

Your hero Roubini is anal iced here: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/index.php?na...e&sid=14751

[Abrak]

10% preferred Goldman Sachs...Didn't he also get a deal of some kind on GE?

I'm guessing with that GS line he gets info galore...not that he didn't before

Yeah I suspect that was the best deal anyone did all year.

It is a bit of a shame the US Government didnt actually notice because a few months later GS was effectively bust and got bailed out by the US taxpayer (GS execs not wishing to contribute their last year's bonus) on infinitely worse terms. In theory he only made money cos GS screwed the taxpayer so you should say he got lucky but we should probably respect the fact that if things went wrong he was pretty confident that GS would screw the taxpayer.

[badge]

A neat graph showing the reflated rise of the last decade, in this particular chart, for US equities. But house prices, commods, crncy trends etc Im sure will look similar

[zorro1]

moving right along, both Deutsche bank and Cisco systems beat analysts literally flipping the futures on its head and a mini rally on the FTSE near close.

Have to admire John Chambers from Cisco. I remember watching him on CNBC a year ago under extreme pressure he called it the way it is , a straight shooter then a straight shooter now. Some one tell me this man isnt impressive? He stated today we are out of recession and IT about to move forward as a natural prrogression.

[zorro1]

Your hero Roubini is anal iced here: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/index.php?na...e&sid=14751

"IN LIFE THE PAIN IS EASY, IT'S THE HOPE THAT KILLS YOU"

I just noticed your signature. so sorry

[zorro1]

well well Futures up 45 from -60 low. Who is buying? mom n pops always like to pay more and they wont hit hard until a few months so. I think greedy instos are leading the way again

well I'm off, currently in Cambodia, why is internet quicker than TOT

Edited November 5, 2009 by zorro1

[AlexLah]

Your hero Roubini is anal iced here: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/index.php?na...e&sid=14751

"IN LIFE THE PAIN IS EASY, IT'S THE HOPE THAT KILLS YOU"

I just noticed your signature. so sorry

Don't feel sorry Zorro, real traders are not into that.

Just ask the Obama zombies about his promises made during his election campaign.

Anyway this topic is about making bets in the stock market, hoping they will bring you some extra cash.

So what is your next bet Zorro and tell us why.

The latest bet Buffet is making is because he understands where the next Enron is.

Learn history Zorro and you understand.

Alex "The Quake" Lah

.

[nakachalet]

begging all traders:

and if possible--can you also show us how you draw your trendlines before the facts rather than after the facts.... for example, if you can draw your trendlines before the market opens for the particular trades.... rather than drawing the trendlines after the market close.... so we can learn from you and see how you can use trendlines to predict... before market opens.... thx much all

wishing everyone profitable trading.... cheers

-------

hi, I,ve started to do a lot of trading in the last year or so and to be honest TV is the last place to listen to any advice as some people love to blow their thrumpet after the action happens as well as being doom merchants.... i made a lot of money this year by pumping up stocks which i was down and when everybody was saying "cash, cash"

Don't laugh but Google finance is not a bad tool to get information on your stocks, once you build your portfolio, i build a new one every month to track my losses or gains, there is loads of links of up to dat news on your particular stocks, obviously the discussion boards are also full of " yestersdays news" or " i bought at x and sold at y " but the links are good and the graphs are very good..

I also use ADVN.com for a live feed of stocks and investapidia.com is good website for learning the basics...

having said that I have just lost a huge amount of cash in the last week on financial stocks as i mis-interpated a blip from a meltdown and went from 30- 50 % profits to 20 % losses in a week but that is a another story .... which there is no excuse except i got too greedy....its funny when things are going well you feel invincable until it all turns to shit

YES, i know what you mean.... the feeling of invincibility, when you figured out which direction the market is heading, with all your charts and trendlines.... lol

then the market shifts and we keep on using our profitable charts and trendlines.... lol

lo and behold.... yes, i knew exactly what you meant, mr osborne.... lol

cheers.... better trade down the road....

[badge]

Id be impressed if the ASX can get over 4800

In fairness Im not easily impressed 4800 been rejected twice now. Wonder how significant a hurdle it will be?

Topped out a couple days later at 4890 ish, and followed with a swift 10% decline.

I must of overlooked something minor.

I wonder if anyone made any portfolio adjustments?

[zorro1]

Your hero Roubini is anal iced here: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/index.php?na...e&sid=14751

"IN LIFE THE PAIN IS EASY, IT'S THE HOPE THAT KILLS YOU"

I just noticed your signature. so sorry

Don't feel sorry Zorro, real traders are not into that.

Just ask the Obama zombies about his promises made during his election campaign.

Anyway this topic is about making bets in the stock market, hoping they will bring you some extra cash.

So what is your next bet Zorro and tell us why.

The latest bet Buffet is making is because he understands where the next Enron is.

Learn history Zorro and you understand.

Alex "The Quake" Lah

.

"interesting, markets are consolidating. Another crack at 10000? looks very likely. No way we heading south till at least one more crack at 10 , that's just the way is "

I made a forking killing today! I tipped this on the 11th and just go back a page and I told you all I loaded up. No tips sorry , I only post here for fun anyway Im on hot copper all day , i cant believe that no one here didnt think 10,000 would be tested again?? whether it holds is a different kettle of fish.

Im still long on a few since November. Life is good, anyway back to see how my sell orders going.

[midas]

Someone has leaked the info that the US unemployment figures this week will be 10.3%

and the DJIA will respond to this by falling 1000 + in one day

must have been AlexLah. right?

WOW my source was right..........10.2%

They actually knocked off 0.1% to make the figures look " less bad "

so the markets could rally another 200 points for zorro's sake

[lannarebirth]

Someone has leaked the info that the US unemployment figures this week will be 10.3%

and the DJIA will respond to this by falling 1000 + in one day

must have been AlexLah. right?

WOW my source was right..........10.2%

They actually knocked off 0.1% to make the figures look " less bad "

so the markets could rally another 200 points for zorro's sake

I don't know why you guys are playing grab ass on this thing. It makes you both look stupid. Although stupid and making money is the better kind.

Anyhow, highest UE rates since 1983 I read. That worked out pretty well, in the end:

[midas]

Someone has leaked the info that the US unemployment figures this week will be 10.3%

and the DJIA will respond to this by falling 1000 + in one day

must have been AlexLah. right?

WOW my source was right..........10.2%

They actually knocked off 0.1% to make the figures look " less bad "

so the markets could rally another 200 points for zorro's sake

I don't know why you guys are playing grab ass on this thing. It makes you both look stupid. Although stupid and making money is the better kind.

Anyhow, highest UE rates since 1983 I read. That worked out pretty well, in the end:

I can be called stupid any day of the week - i still have all my capital

and I will have my opportunity on the downward leg

[midas]

No surprise the markets rise on this unemployment news

But i hope they remember the "The Supervisory Capital Assessment Program"?

( aka The "Stress Tests." )

10.2% represents a " more adverse " scenario for unemployment so

I wonder when are the next round of revised Stress Tests ?

[Abrak]

Anyhow, highest UE rates since 1983 I read. That worked out pretty well, in the end:

Perhaps a more meaningful statistic is this.

The current unemployment rate is 10.2%. Nobody expects the unemployment rate to be lower by the end of next year. Therefore the average unemployment rate next year will be at least 10.2% (an heroic achievement because you really have to meet some very strict criteria in order to be classified as unemployed.)

The last time unemployment averaged over 10% in any given year was 1940.

Another slightly puzzling thing is that Ukon's Law states that for every 1% increase in unemployment from its natural rate GDP should fall between 2% and 4% (it was Bernanke that got the number down to 2%.) The unemployment rate will increase 3.6% this year so real GDP should be down over 7%. You can vaguely see how strange the current number is in the chart below but that was produced in June with a year end forecast of 9.8% unemployment and 3Q GDP growth of 0.6% (actual 3.5%). So if you adjusted the little red dot it would be even more of an outlyer now.

[Abrak]

BTW for the bulls here is an interesting speech by Bernanke explaining why he doesnt believe in using monetary policy to burst asset bubbles (I realize that I find interesting may wildly differ from other people but the last 5 paragraphs are worth a look at.)

I would also think most economists would disagree, both with the theory and the conclusion. But if the Dow goes to 15,000 he clearly sees no reason to raise rates.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/sp...002/default.htm

I find him a laugh a minute....

[flying]

Anyhow, highest UE rates since 1983 I read. That worked out pretty well, in the end:

Yes some of the talking heads are joking about it today on Television

Unemployment 8+ DOW goes over 8000

UE 9+ DOW goes over 9000

UE 10+ DOW goes over 10,000

They say their hoping for UE 11+ soon

[Abrak]

I have been pondering those unemployment numbers. First unemployment is 150% higher than forecast in January for the whole year. The fall in GDP is about the same but the deficit has been increased by US$600bn.

Anyway back to Okun's Law there are two possible explanations (apart from Okun's Law is crap). One GDP is declining a lot faster than reported. Secondly, and probably far more likely 'potential output' for the USA is declining fast. Afterall the relationship isnt actually GDP but gap between potential output at full employment. We can reconcile the number by reducing potential output. Now that means your NAIRU has just increased by 50% or so which is all a bit scary.

[flying]

I have been pondering those unemployment numbers. First unemployment is 150% higher than forecast in January for the whole year.

An astute reader noticed that the BLS press release says that 190,000 jobs were lost from payroll employment, but the number of unemployed persons increased by 558,000. What's up with that?

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2...eople-lose.html

[zorro1]

Anyhow, highest UE rates since 1983 I read. That worked out pretty well, in the end:

Yes some of the talking heads are joking about it today on Television

Unemployment 8+ DOW goes over 8000

UE 9+ DOW goes over 9000

UE 10+ DOW goes over 10,000

They say their hoping for UE 11+ soon

classic! there was a little silver lining in that report being Temp workers up. Thing is the big players such as cicsco keep beating anaylits report. were having a jobless recovery Employment at this stage is a lagging indicator and out 81 economists not 1 expected such a large fall and totally suprised by the dow this morning for now but will do some research today. Midas congrats you nailed it but for all the wrong reasons, you left out the bit where you predicted a - 1000pt drop on the dow so kind of totally wipes all your creibality.......again

[Abrak]

Anyhow, highest UE rates since 1983 I read. That worked out pretty well, in the end:

Yes some of the talking heads are joking about it today on Television

Unemployment 8+ DOW goes over 8000

UE 9+ DOW goes over 9000

UE 10+ DOW goes over 10,000

They say their hoping for UE 11+ soon

classic! there was a little silver lining in that report being Temp workers up. Thing is the big players such as cicsco keep beating anaylits report. were having a jobless recovery Employment at this stage is a lagging indicator and out 81 economists not 1 expected such a large fall and totally suprised by the dow this morning for now but will do some research today. Midas congrats you nailed it but for all the wrong reasons, you left out the bit where you predicted a - 1000pt drop on the dow so kind of totally wipes all your creibality.......again

You have to love the 90,000 upward revision of historic numbers. A revision is supposed to be a discrepancy up or down. If you get your initial forecast wrong by 30% consistently in one direction every month over two years, surely there has to be a forecasting error.

[Naam]

I made a forking killing today!

as always, Zorro makes disgusting remarks