The Stock Market

[lannarebirth]

If you were hoping for a SET pullback, I think your wish has been granted.

[midas]

If you were hoping for a SET pullback, I think your wish has been granted.

I would never " wish " for that but I just cannot workout what made people

put money into the SET under the conditions of the last few weeks..........

Couldnt they see what was coming ?

I have been in Sisaket and Kon Khaen last week and the mood is the same

everywhere there......they will not even think of giving in this time unless the PM

steps down so what happened today doesnt surprise me one bit.

So why the compulsive need to place money before the chaos.

[ray23]

Sad but, everyone knew it was around the corner.

[seanocasey]

besides a huge pile of cash my portfolio consisted in 2009 nearly exclusively of more than a dozen of said "individual components"... and that no matter how much you beg to differ or disagree it goes however without saying that my portfolio's total net increased in 2009 by "only" 44% because, being a cautious investor, i applied only a part of my cash.

Thank you. My point entirely.

QED

Sometimes, my friend, I seem to manage to have quite heated agreements with both yourself and Abrak!!

Gambles, i don't consider our arguments "heated" but quite normal. problem is that we are limited to the written word which (except adding smilies) has no intonation, no gestures and no real possibility for "tongue in cheek". if you are interested to experience heated discussions i will invite you to one of our annual meetings where two or sometimes three dozen investors, bankers, traders, speculators and last not least some who have no freaking idea about finances from all over this planet heat up after having consumed ample wine, booze and cocktails. the discussions cool down between 23.00 hours and midnight when the first ones are looking at their watches and ask "isn't it time to go to Walking Street?"

p.s. those few i mentioned who have no freaking idea about finances are not really participating in the heated discussions but keep enjoying their food and sipping their drinks. and when i nudge them "say something or at least ask some questions!" they might respond "why should we? isn't it enough that we award you princely by paying you a nice dinner once or even twice a year because you are handling our portfolios since 21 years? by the way, make sure to transfer xxk to my account at... you know where. got a new grandchild, wife wants to remodel the bathrooms, landscape company demands xxk to redo outside area... my bloody car is already three years old..."

i do hope it will continue for you and your friends namm but i see times are changing.

Wealth often takes away chances from men as well as poverty. There is none to tell the rich to go on striving, for a rich man makes the law that hallows and hollows his own life.

Namm I bow to your superiority. sorry I'm not German, only an Irish fool.

[Naam]

i do hope it will continue for you and your friends namm but i see times are changing.

Wealth often takes away chances from men as well as poverty. There is none to tell the rich to go on striving, for a rich man makes the law that hallows and hollows his own life. Namm I bow to your superiority. sorry I'm not German, only an Irish fool.

i kann read your vords but don't oonderstund some off zem. zat applies espeshully to my alletched superiority oond ze fakt zat you are not a Tchermann.

but i do know that times are changing. they have been changing continously since a was a little boy, they will keep on changing and all of us have to adapt on a nearly daily basis. i have no idea how hollow a rich man's life is. having met and known quite a number of rich men in my lifetime i failed to realise the hollowness of their life and the chances which were taken away because of their wealth. perhaps because i never asked? but next time i meet a rich man i will question him and demand to know all the details.

[Naam]

If you were hoping for a SET pullback, I think your wish has been granted.

I would never " wish " for that but I just cannot workout what made people put money into the SET under the conditions of the last few weeks..........

Couldnt they see what was coming ?

I have been in Sisaket and Kon Khaen last week and the mood is the same everywhere there......they will not even think of giving in this time unless the PM steps down so what happened today doesnt surprise me one bit.

So why the compulsive need to place money before the chaos.

that need is called gambling.

[zorro1]

The set is looking like a good buy soon.

[midas]

For those interested in reality and not relying only the “ greater fool theory “

So, How Are Stock Prices Now That We're Back At DOW 11,000? They're 30% Overvalued

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-pe#ixzz0kodlOMoC

[midas]

The set is looking like a good buy soon.

funny i havent heard any fat ladies singing

[zorro1]

For those interested in reality and not relying only the “ greater fool theory “

So, How Are Stock Prices Now That We're Back At DOW 11,000? They're 30% Overvalued

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-pe#ixzz0kodlOMoC

yeah that's great news! somebody keeps pushing my stock up and by 30% Who cares why? not me. Watching the dow chart closely it was a great indicator a few months back. Hey midas I do remember saying see you at 11, 000 , why don't you just buy something and enjoy the ride? Nothing to suggest its not going to 11500 or to 13000 for that matter, can you show me why anyone would be selling now? (please no news paper clips)

[midas]

For those interested in reality and not relying only the “ greater fool theory “

So, How Are Stock Prices Now That We're Back At DOW 11,000? They're 30% Overvalued

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-pe#ixzz0kodlOMoC

yeah that's great news! somebody keeps pushing my stock up and by 30% Who cares why? not me. Watching the dow chart closely it was a great indicator a few months back. Hey midas I do remember saying see you at 11, 000 , why don't you just buy something and enjoy the ride? Nothing to suggest its not going to 11500 or to 13000 for that matter, can you show me why anyone would be selling now? (please no news paper clips)

Simple zorro !

I don’t NEED to thank youvery much and I am more than happy with what I already have

plus these days who needs the anxiety of having keeping an eye on so many 'events '

Think This Market Is Boring? Here Are 14 Crises That Could Blast The Complacency Out Of The Market

http://www.businessinsider.com/12-crises-market-2010-4

[zorro1]

For those interested in reality and not relying only the “ greater fool theory “

So, How Are Stock Prices Now That We're Back At DOW 11,000? They're 30% Overvalued

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-pe#ixzz0kodlOMoC

yeah that's great news! somebody keeps pushing my stock up and by 30% Who cares why? not me. Watching the dow chart closely it was a great indicator a few months back. Hey midas I do remember saying see you at 11, 000 , why don't you just buy something and enjoy the ride? Nothing to suggest its not going to 11500 or to 13000 for that matter, can you show me why anyone would be selling now? (please no news paper clips)

Simple zorro !

I don’t NEED to thank youvery much and I am more than happy with what I already have

plus these days who needs the anxiety of having keeping an eye on so many 'events '

Think This Market Is Boring? Here Are 14 Crises That Could Blast The Complacency Out Of The Market

http://www.businessinsider.com/12-crises-market-2010-4

You dont need extra money? sure I can accept that its what makes the rich richer and the poor poorer. Im gonna try to help you Midas, god knows why

Okay obviously since day one you screwed up, why you keep coming back for more whipping? who knows you probably hang out in seedy underground bars with a leather mask ,rubber ball in your mouth and a very red Butt.

Okay buy some MEO, inside word its about jump 50%

Why? well do a little research grass hopper.

Im on record ..

[midas]

You dont need extra money? sure I can accept that its what makes the rich richer and the poor poorer. Im gonna try to help you Midas, god knows why

Okay obviously since day one you screwed up, why you keep coming back for more whipping? who knows you probably hang out in seedy underground bars with a leather mask ,rubber ball in your mouth and a very red Butt.

Okay buy some MEO, inside word its about jump 50%

Why? well do a little research grass hopper.

Im on record ..

Go on kidding yourself zorro that you in are in control and you know exactly what the next moves will be……….

I have enough money from the days when things made sense…..

now its much more satisfying to protect what I already have and watch suckers play this game like dogs chasing every car that passes by

[zorro1]

Dow has risen from 6500 to 11000, dogs chasing cars?? mate Im gonna have to put you on ignore for a while, don't be offended its nothing personal its just that you seem to have an extremely low IQ .

[siamamerican]

For those interested in reality and not relying only the “ greater fool theory “

So, How Are Stock Prices Now That We're Back At DOW 11,000? They're 30% Overvalued

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-pe#ixzz0kodlOMoC

I have conceded that I will never understand the motivation of people like yourself who are determined to only see doom and gloom when, I can assure you, there are at least a few positive economic signs.

Are stocks overvalued 30%. Possibly, but without knowing the future it is hard to tell. Sure P/Es based on trailing earnings are high. The markets though are valuing stocks on future earning. The market may be wrong and I bet against it earlier this month. I sold short calls on all my positions on April 1 and missed out on some of the recent run.

I really doubt your market forecast ability and us "fools" that invested while the sky was falling in your mind, profited handsomely the last year. If you keep forecasting a major market drop, you will eventually be correct.

Let go of your determination to prove to all that all is going to end badly. Open your mind to other possibilities.

[ray23]

Sorry to get in between the contestants any views on which asset classes to watch in the Thai market over the next few weeks?

[midas]

For those interested in reality and not relying only the “ greater fool theory “

So, How Are Stock Prices Now That We're Back At DOW 11,000? They're 30% Overvalued

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-pe#ixzz0kodlOMoC

I have conceded that I will never understand the motivation of people like yourself who are determined to only see doom and gloom when, I can assure you, there are at least a few positive economic signs.

Are stocks overvalued 30%. Possibly, but without knowing the future it is hard to tell. Sure P/Es based on trailing earnings are high. The markets though are valuing stocks on future earning. The market may be wrong and I bet against it earlier this month. I sold short calls on all my positions on April 1 and missed out on some of the recent run.

I really doubt your market forecast ability and us "fools" that invested while the sky was falling in your mind, profited handsomely the last year. If you keep forecasting a major market drop, you will eventually be correct.

Let go of your determination to prove to all that all is going to end badly. Open your mind to other possibilities.

Can I ask you something siamamerican ?

For example if i chose not to buy an insurance policy or say a car from a salesperson that I dont TRUST

- is that considered " doom and gloom " ?

I dont want to participate because I no longer trust the so called " markets " and as for your statement " I really doubt your market forecast ability "

I completely agree with you on this. But I think you will find i am not alone

Stocks are not even my business but take David Rosenberg or David Horowitz and it is their business and they are saying the same.

But you go ahead and knock yourself out and bet the farm if you like

[midas]

Nothing to suggest its not going to 11500 or to 13000 for that matter, can you show me why anyone would be selling now?

despite my inability to forecast........I would say the chances have to be less likely than more likely based on this

Greek Curve Goes Apeshit: Bloomberg Reports 3 Month Bid At 21.3%

[Gambles]

Dow popped through 11,000 briefly as a first test. Shows where the market wants to go, at least next week should be interesting. Wheres Midas? MEO re my previous chart looks very strong for a break out next week

Quite possibly up zorro.

But now I am getting so much entertainment from watching these clowns run the" market " up this way

on quite mediocre news...... and so i just want to see how this ends particularly when Greece defaults

I think that the market could keep rising on this bullish (think that's how it's spelt ) sentiment a while longer

Macro fundamentals will take over at some point though

and the danger is that the chartists who've been picking up nickels in front of dozers just won't get out of the way in time.....

[Gambles]

Nothing to suggest its not going to 11500 or to 13000 for that matter, can you show me why anyone would be selling now?

despite my inability to forecast........I would say the chances have to be less likely than more likely based on this

Greek Curve Goes Apeshit: Bloomberg Reports 3 Month Bid At 21.3%

I've no idea what the upside is

but I'm sticking to 3500 as a downside DJIA target

on that basis fear trumps greed right now

[zorro1]

We have a problem here folks that needs to be cleared

There is nothing wrong with a calling a massive collapse .

There is a lot wrong with missing the last rally

eg, will make it simple

trader A. Buys the fear at 6500 on the dow, today trader A has $100k profit

trader B. didnt buy ( midas ) has zip, nada ,zero

trader A. has a sell button

trader B, has zip , nada, zero sell button

Gambles I hope this analogy helps

cheers

Edited April 12, 2010 by zorro1

[zorro1]

USA

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow is testing resistance at 11000, with rising Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) signaling a breakout. Respect of resistance is unlikely, but would indicate another test of 10000. Target for the breakout is 12000*, but beware of reversal below the new support level (or Money Flow below its rising trendline) as in late 1999.

[zorro1]

It doesn't get any easier than the above chart. For those new to the market as long as the dow stays inside the grey channel lines we are 100% safe. However dont try to pick the top, if it trends slightly out of the channel (see my last chart) then no reason to sell. Wait for the next support to be broken (10,000) and then sell with all your heart

[fletchsmile]

If you were hoping for a SET pullback, I think your wish has been granted.

I would never " wish " for that but I just cannot workout what made people put money into the SET under the conditions of the last few weeks..........

Couldnt they see what was coming ?

I have been in Sisaket and Kon Khaen last week and the mood is the same everywhere there......they will not even think of giving in this time unless the PM steps down so what happened today doesnt surprise me one bit.

So why the compulsive need to place money before the chaos.

Midas

Sure people could see the political risk, and it possibly crystallising. It could also go even lower as well. Forget trying to time the Thai stock market though as a small retail investor. Even if you skip the crashes, it's very hard to call the timing of the upsides. Retail investors rarely get the timing of both right in Thailand. I know quite a few people avoided the 40% loss in 2008, but they also missed the 70% gain in 2009, and many permutations in between

I continue to buy Thai equities via Long Term Equity Funds each and every month to get the tax back at 37%. I did this throughout the tough times in 2007 and 2008 (yes I was down 40%) as well, in addition to 2009 (up 70%). Even in 2008 for the additions I made, I was actually up a little after adjusting for tax, given the drip feed in a falling market + tax benefit. And that was the worst year I have on record.

The cost averaging in these situation is great.

Of course the amount I'm adding via cost averaging is now small compared to the gains accrued over the last decade or so.

Thai equities have given me an 18% annualised return over the last decade or so in THB terms excluding the tax benefits as they only started around 2004!. Why pull out and risk not getting in again at the right time. I've a large position that would have to fall over 75% for me to be in negative territory. Even then I'd be consoling myself that because it's a THB asset, if it fell 75% I'd still be up 20% in GBP terms

Key is simply understanding the risks you're taking. Living in Thailand I want THB assets. Cash pays nothing, bonds very little, drip feeding into equities fits my risk profile. Throw in the tax factor and this continues to be a buy for me....

BTW I'd add this is part of a portfolio, and I by no means have everything in THB... and Thai equities...So I'll continue buying each day after pay day...

[fletchsmile]

If you were hoping for a SET pullback, I think your wish has been granted.

I would never " wish " for that but I just cannot workout what made people put money into the SET under the conditions of the last few weeks..........

Couldnt they see what was coming ?

I have been in Sisaket and Kon Khaen last week and the mood is the same everywhere there......they will not even think of giving in this time unless the PM steps down so what happened today doesnt surprise me one bit.

So why the compulsive need to place money before the chaos.

that need is called gambling.

Gambling Dr.Naam,???

For those trying to call short term with large positions maybe

For those of us taking measured long term risks:

> 18% annualised return over a decade or so in THB

> 37% cash back off the government of the hour (red shirt or yellow shirt doesn't matter) since 2004

> removal of THB FX risk by holding THB assets to hedge against THB liabilities and expenses while living in country

> effectively swapping currency risk for equity risk. If I'd held GBP I'd be down 20% over a decade, similar magnitude in USD

> Also part of a wider portfolio of currencies, bonds, commodities etc, for diversification benefits

Actually it's been like playing roulette with 35 blacks and 1 red on the wheel for the last decade.

Needlees to say, it's been one of my favourite casinos....

[Gambles]

Of course the amount I'm adding via cost averaging is now small compared to the gains accrued over the last decade or so.

Key is simply understanding the risks you're taking. Living in Thailand I want THB assets. Cash pays nothing, bonds very little, drip feeding into equities fits my risk profile. Throw in the tax factor and this continues to be a buy for me....

BTW I'd add this is part of a portfolio, and I by no means have everything in THB... and Thai equities...So I'll continue buying each day after pay day...

that makes a lot of sense (although for completeness sake I would say that there are other THB options to consider, but I agree that it's a huge incentive to use the tax breaks to the max; I know that's very basic but it's also very smart advice, many people forget to do the obvious - kudos to you for doing it religiously). Your tax-favoured averaged-in positions make a lot of sense and are bound to incite some envy ;-)

Thai equities have given me an 18% annualised return over the last decade or so in THB terms excluding the tax benefits as they only started around 2004!. Why pull out and risk not getting in again at the right time. I've a large position that would have to fall over 75% for me to be in negative territory. Even then I'd be consoling myself that because it's a THB asset, if it fell 75% I'd still be up 20% in GBP terms

that doesn't makes so much sense....I'm no trader but re-allocating near a top makes sense in any language......and if you can sell out of 5 year old LTFs and pre 04 positions surely it has to be worth at least thinking about, at some point, doesn't it? I'm not saying now but I'm just saying I wouldn;t be too dogmatic about it ....a 75% fall could well be on the cards at some point, if not quite yet

but point taken about the gains!!!

Edited April 12, 2010 by Gambles

[Gambles]

Gambles I hope this analogy helps

cheers

Not really, Zorro

But thanks anyway

[fletchsmile]

Of course the amount I'm adding via cost averaging is now small compared to the gains accrued over the last decade or so.

Key is simply understanding the risks you're taking. Living in Thailand I want THB assets. Cash pays nothing, bonds very little, drip feeding into equities fits my risk profile. Throw in the tax factor and this continues to be a buy for me....

BTW I'd add this is part of a portfolio, and I by no means have everything in THB... and Thai equities...So I'll continue buying each day after pay day...

that makes a lot of sense (although for completeness sake I would say that there are other THB options to consider, but I agree that it's a huge incentive to use the tax breaks to the max; I know that's very basic but it's also very smart advice, many people forget to do the obvious - kudos to you for doing it religiously). Your tax-favoured averaged-in positions make a lot of sense and are bound to incite some envy ;-)

Thai equities have given me an 18% annualised return over the last decade or so in THB terms excluding the tax benefits as they only started around 2004!. Why pull out and risk not getting in again at the right time. I've a large position that would have to fall over 75% for me to be in negative territory. Even then I'd be consoling myself that because it's a THB asset, if it fell 75% I'd still be up 20% in GBP terms

that doesn't makes so much sense....I'm no trader but re-allocating near a top makes sense in any language......and if you can sell out of 5 year old LTFs and pre 04 positions surely it has to be worth at least thinking about, at some point, doesn't it? I'm not saying now but I'm just saying I wouldn;t be too dogmatic about it ....a 75% fall could well be on the cards at some point, if not quite yet

but point taken about the gains!!!

Gambles yes you're right, I do from time to time re-allocate and occasionally take a few profits. Though not often big amounts

Just there's too much to put otherwise in a single post though here. I'll be reaching such a point again at the end of this year where that will probably happen. I'm getting to the stage again I have too much THB and THB exposure even for me. If the market tanks, then I'll just wait til next year though.

You're right also that I take the pre-2004 gains before maturing LTFs. The LTFs continue capital gains and income tax free according to tax legislation in their special "wrapper". There happens to be no tax on retail funds (at the moment) anyway, but who knows when that might change and the LTFs would be more likely to retain the tax free status than normal funds if that happened.

The 75% fall is just something I use for peace of mind so that I never feel I have to sell, and can remove the panic and negative emotion people feel in crashes. Bear in mind also that if the market tanked 75% my faith in the fund managers I use is that they will maintain their alpha, so I wouldn't get hit with the full 75%. Anyone who checks say the SET will see 10 year performance is not great. The alpha of certain fund managers is...

[zorro1]

I've no idea what the upside is

but I'm sticking to 3500 as a downside DJIA target

on that basis fear trumps greed right now

Gambles are you shorting the dow? This thread is good for a laugh since no one is willing to disclose their position and we know who the bears are , they only post -200. Are you happy to disclose your position/ stock holding? Easy to post your heart away without conviction. very much look forward to your disclosure

cheers

[fletchsmile]

Of course the amount I'm adding via cost averaging is now small compared to the gains accrued over the last decade or so.

Key is simply understanding the risks you're taking. Living in Thailand I want THB assets. Cash pays nothing, bonds very little, drip feeding into equities fits my risk profile. Throw in the tax factor and this continues to be a buy for me....

BTW I'd add this is part of a portfolio, and I by no means have everything in THB... and Thai equities...So I'll continue buying each day after pay day...

that makes a lot of sense (although for completeness sake I would say that there are other THB options to consider, but I agree that it's a huge incentive to use the tax breaks to the max; I know that's very basic but it's also very smart advice, many people forget to do the obvious - kudos to you for doing it religiously). Your tax-favoured averaged-in positions make a lot of sense and are bound to incite some envy ;-)

Gambles,

Any suggestions as to other THB options?

We also have physical property here.

I'm not a fan of property funds here, as they are close-ended and not that transparent. The fact they are often returning capital in addition to income (as property portfolios are often leaseholds) makes it messy to evaluate

There are one or two interesting areas such as MFC do a gold fund that is allowed to hedge currency exposures so effectively stripping out the USD impact should they desire.

Options/ futures on echanges not my style...