The Stock Market

[zorro1]

Hmmmm dow down 2.5% will be some nice opportunities Monday morning. Talking about illiquid stock , how about this one? Alcoa on ozzie stock exchange trading around $13. Have a look at whats available pretty scary (1500 totall buy depth) & only (732 sell depth) but it has dropped a lot ($47 52 week high) and recently recieved very good press. Ive been sitting with a 1000 order at $12.60 for a week on top of buy stack but no takers

Buyers

Number Quantity Price

1 500 12.550

1 500 12.510

2 105 12.500

1 200 11.900

1 100 11.000

1 150 10.810

Sellers

Price Quantity Number

14.500 200 1

17.000 132 1

20.000 100 1

20.050 400

have look at the bollinger bands and the uptrend on volume and looks like a big breakout to upside. I may get my $1260 order filled on the drop Monday.

[midas]

says it all really !

The 60-Year-Old World Credit Bubble That Could Be Deflating Right Now

Edited July 17, 2010 by midas

[zorro1]

says it all really !

The 60-Year-Old World Credit Bubble That Could Be Deflating Right Now

Dont get to excited Midas. From memory support resistance was 9800. Dow is trying to retest, its just what the dow does, nothing new here for now.

[midas]

says it all really !

The 60-Year-Old World Credit Bubble That Could Be Deflating Right Now

Dont get to excited Midas. From memory support resistance was 9800. Dow is trying to retest, its just what the dow does, nothing new here for now.

yes you might be right.

But there is nothing new here either !

Edited July 17, 2010 by midas

[leemo]

Take a peak at MAJOR, and enjoy.

[BlackJack]

Hmmmm dow down 2.5% will be some nice opportunities Monday morning. Talking about illiquid stock , how about this one? Alcoa on ozzie stock exchange trading around $13. Have a look at whats available pretty scary (1500 totall buy depth) & only (732 sell depth) but it has dropped a lot ($47 52 week high) and recently recieved very good press. Ive been sitting with a 1000 order at $12.60 for a week on top of buy stack but no takers

Buyers

Number Quantity Price

1 500 12.550

1 500 12.510

2 105 12.500

1 200 11.900

1 100 11.000

1 150 10.810

Sellers

Price Quantity Number

14.500 200 1

17.000 132 1

20.000 100 1

20.050 400

have look at the bollinger bands and the uptrend on volume and looks like a big breakout to upside. I may get my $1260 order filled on the drop Monday.

1000 order at $12.60 =

[BlackJack]

i have said it before and heres my 20 cents worth

I have been long on ASX stock SPL

its now 10 years R&D on their lead bio tech product and so nearing marketing

contracts are in place and FDA fast track and second phase FDA approval on 1 aspect of their product

some things already in the market

many major players involved like Merke, Siemens, DOW, US Military, Monsanto, etc

I bought in at 19 cents and am quiet happy to sit and watch it grow

when i get the chance and the stock goes down i buy more

royalties from SSL (UK) will start next year however

SPL is designing and marketing many future Nano type products and we all know where the Nano market is heading

SPL also bought up the company that makes the Nano's and so no need to rely on out sourcing.

Funny stock though - in any other time - the last several announcements would have sky rocketed this stock - however with the GFC the stock was pounded and thats when i got in

at 49 cents its a bargain

and many super or 401 fund managers are buying into it

good luck all

Edited July 17, 2010 by BlackJack

[zorro1]

i have said it before and heres my 20 cents worth

''''Orbis have bought 8.7m Shares over the last couple of weeks - and Simon Marais is the PM doing it... he is one of the smartest bio-tech guys on the street - look at how they bought ACR in the development stage and where it is now.

SPL are only 6mnth away from revenues on their Durex deal and with cash in the bank and a huge pipeline of other products'''

Chart was looking good friday with buyers stepping up stochastic and macd all about to turn. Yellow triangle confirms beginning of trend reversal. This needs to be re confirmed with a green triangle. If that occurs Monday with big drops expected then i will load up myself

Edited July 17, 2010 by zorro1

[zorro1]

[quote name='BlackJack'

1000 order at $12.60 =

[Abrak]

[quote name='BlackJack'

1000 order at $12.60 =

You will understand if you use a calculator.

[zorro1]

Abrak

Was that an attempt at sarcasm?

Edited July 18, 2010 by zorro1

[Abrak]

No Zorro,

I was simply explaining BJ's comment that 1000 x 12.60 = 12,600 not 1260

Anyway changing the subject completely, the Thai market is quite interesting (I think Zorro called a near bottom there.)

So what's interesting....

1) It is basically at its year's highs. Highly unusual given China's fall.

2) Fundamentals and valuations fine but not great. 2 of my companies will report profits down qoq for the first time in 5q

3) This is where it gets interesting. Locals are buying into a rising market. This is incredibly rare - 2H 1993 and 2003. (I think). Net buyers this year. Net buyers first two weeks of July. Generally they sell as foreigners bid the market up and buy as they sell it down (cos no profit.) This can lead to some very big moves.

4) It is beginning to look like there are the first signs of good speccy behavior. Look at STA.BK stock up 10x, volume up 500x in 9 months.

5)It must be due some profit taking (Badge says around here). But there hasnt been a bull market for 17 years and on valuations the market can easily go to 1500 on a 2 year view v S&P PEs.

Its the net buying by locals that is really key here (I havent really tested it properly). Low deposit rates, little real investment potential, sterilization over, very good fundamentals. Obviously buying at its years peak doesnt sound too smart but the fact it is trading at its peak is pretty impressive. Best day to invest is usually December 6th.

[BlackJack]

''''Orbis have bought 8.7m Shares over the last couple of weeks - and Simon Marais is the PM doing it... he is one of the smartest bio-tech guys on the street - look at how they bought ACR in the development stage and where it is now.

SPL are only 6mnth away from revenues on their Durex deal and with cash in the bank and a huge pipeline of other products'''

Chart was looking good friday with buyers stepping up stochastic and macd all about to turn. Yellow triangle confirms beginning of trend reversal. This needs to be re confirmed with a green triangle. If that occurs Monday with big drops expected then i will load up myself

The Durex deal is only one of many things that SPL will generate returns on

SPL animal health products medicines are less regulated and easier to get onto the 28 billion dollar PA market

SPL targeted bug sprays for Monsanto (far less toxic and only kills the intended bug (not the good bees) )is worth 100's of billions per year

goes on and on and so anyone of these products could reach the market anytime soon

I just love reading the science behind it all too

[zorro1]

Blackjack there is strong support at these levels , you can see the strong volume and follow up buying in the bollinger squeeze even though SPL was trending down. Tomorrow will be interesting since SPL just established support last few days after breaking to down side , will watch it. Hard to find negative F/A about it on other forums however T/A seems to play a bigger part in the markets these days or am I imaging that?

[midas]

No Zorro,

I was simply explaining BJ's comment that 1000 x 12.60 = 12,600 not 1260

Anyway changing the subject completely, the Thai market is quite interesting (I think Zorro called a near bottom there.)

So what's interesting....

1) It is basically at its year's highs. Highly unusual given China's fall.

2) Fundamentals and valuations fine but not great. 2 of my companies will report profits down qoq for the first time in 5q

3) This is where it gets interesting. Locals are buying into a rising market. This is incredibly rare - 2H 1993 and 2003. (I think). Net buyers this year. Net buyers first two weeks of July. Generally they sell as foreigners bid the market up and buy as they sell it down (cos no profit.) This can lead to some very big moves.

4) It is beginning to look like there are the first signs of good speccy behavior. Look at STA.BK stock up 10x, volume up 500x in 9 months.

5)It must be due some profit taking (Badge says around here). But there hasnt been a bull market for 17 years and on valuations the market can easily go to 1500 on a 2 year view v S&P PEs.

Its the net buying by locals that is really key here (I havent really tested it properly). Low deposit rates, little real investment potential, sterilization over, very good fundamentals. Obviously buying at its years peak doesnt sound too smart but the fact it is trading at its peak is pretty impressive. Best day to invest is usually December 6th.

Is it you that Abhisit eventually hired as THE PR consultant for Thailand ?

I mean " the market can easily go to 1500 on a 2 year view " when at the same time

some prominent people are forecasting 5,000 on the DJIA and while Shanghai and Tokyo

languish in the doldrums ?

Oh i forgot this is the land of unicorns where condo prices only ever go UP.

And you still havent said how or when they will be able to pay off their 1997 debt

- i mean some of those " assets " after 13 years will be starting to look a little shabby ?

[lannarebirth]

''''Orbis have bought 8.7m Shares over the last couple of weeks - and Simon Marais is the PM doing it... he is one of the smartest bio-tech guys on the street - look at how they bought ACR in the development stage and where it is now.

SPL are only 6mnth away from revenues on their Durex deal and with cash in the bank and a huge pipeline of other products'''

Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel.

[lannarebirth]

No Zorro,

I was simply explaining BJ's comment that 1000 x 12.60 = 12,600 not 1260

Anyway changing the subject completely, the Thai market is quite interesting (I think Zorro called a near bottom there.)

So what's interesting....

1) It is basically at its year's highs. Highly unusual given China's fall.

2) Fundamentals and valuations fine but not great. 2 of my companies will report profits down qoq for the first time in 5q

3) This is where it gets interesting. Locals are buying into a rising market. This is incredibly rare - 2H 1993 and 2003. (I think). Net buyers this year. Net buyers first two weeks of July. Generally they sell as foreigners bid the market up and buy as they sell it down (cos no profit.) This can lead to some very big moves.

4) It is beginning to look like there are the first signs of good speccy behavior. Look at STA.BK stock up 10x, volume up 500x in 9 months.

5)It must be due some profit taking (Badge says around here). But there hasnt been a bull market for 17 years and on valuations the market can easily go to 1500 on a 2 year view v S&P PEs.

Its the net buying by locals that is really key here (I havent really tested it properly). Low deposit rates, little real investment potential, sterilization over, very good fundamentals. Obviously buying at its years peak doesnt sound too smart but the fact it is trading at its peak is pretty impressive. Best day to invest is usually December 6th.

Is it you that Abhisit eventually hired as THE PR consultant for Thailand ?

I mean " the market can easily go to 1500 on a 2 year view " when at the same time

some prominent people are forecasting 5,000 on the DJIA and while Shanghai and Tokyo

languish in the doldrums ?

Oh i forgot this is the land of unicorns where condo prices only ever go UP.

And you still havent said how or when they will be able to pay off their 1997 debt

- i mean some of those " assets " after 13 years will be starting to look a little shabby ?

The fact is midas, there is a HUGE budget coming in 2011 for Thailand. No matter whetehr it gets distributed in populist policies or graft, it will filter up and affect Thailand's corporate earnings.

[midas]

No Zorro,

I was simply explaining BJ's comment that 1000 x 12.60 = 12,600 not 1260

Anyway changing the subject completely, the Thai market is quite interesting (I think Zorro called a near bottom there.)

So what's interesting....

1) It is basically at its year's highs. Highly unusual given China's fall.

2) Fundamentals and valuations fine but not great. 2 of my companies will report profits down qoq for the first time in 5q

3) This is where it gets interesting. Locals are buying into a rising market. This is incredibly rare - 2H 1993 and 2003. (I think). Net buyers this year. Net buyers first two weeks of July. Generally they sell as foreigners bid the market up and buy as they sell it down (cos no profit.) This can lead to some very big moves.

4) It is beginning to look like there are the first signs of good speccy behavior. Look at STA.BK stock up 10x, volume up 500x in 9 months.

5)It must be due some profit taking (Badge says around here). But there hasnt been a bull market for 17 years and on valuations the market can easily go to 1500 on a 2 year view v S&P PEs.

Its the net buying by locals that is really key here (I havent really tested it properly). Low deposit rates, little real investment potential, sterilization over, very good fundamentals. Obviously buying at its years peak doesnt sound too smart but the fact it is trading at its peak is pretty impressive. Best day to invest is usually December 6th.

Is it you that Abhisit eventually hired as THE PR consultant for Thailand ?

I mean " the market can easily go to 1500 on a 2 year view " when at the same time

some prominent people are forecasting 5,000 on the DJIA and while Shanghai and Tokyo

languish in the doldrums ?

Oh i forgot this is the land of unicorns where condo prices only ever go UP.

And you still havent said how or when they will be able to pay off their 1997 debt

- i mean some of those " assets " after 13 years will be starting to look a little shabby ?

The fact is midas, there is a HUGE budget coming in 2011 for Thailand. No matter whetehr it gets distributed in populist policies or graft, it will filter up and affect Thailand's corporate earnings.

Oh …….I didnt know about this .

But will things still be potentially so rosy in 2011 no matter what happens in the meantime in other parts of the world ? e.g. Instability in US if Obama loses some power after November , problems in Europe, Japan debt, etc.

And would this budget be affected if Abhisit loses office if his party is found guilty of corruption

or if the Red Shirts win an election that has been mentioned for early 2011 ?

Edited July 19, 2010 by midas

[Abrak]

No Zorro,

I was simply explaining BJ's comment that 1000 x 12.60 = 12,600 not 1260

Anyway changing the subject completely, the Thai market is quite interesting (I think Zorro called a near bottom there.)

So what's interesting....

1) It is basically at its year's highs. Highly unusual given China's fall.

2) Fundamentals and valuations fine but not great. 2 of my companies will report profits down qoq for the first time in 5q

3) This is where it gets interesting. Locals are buying into a rising market. This is incredibly rare - 2H 1993 and 2003. (I think). Net buyers this year. Net buyers first two weeks of July. Generally they sell as foreigners bid the market up and buy as they sell it down (cos no profit.) This can lead to some very big moves.

4) It is beginning to look like there are the first signs of good speccy behavior. Look at STA.BK stock up 10x, volume up 500x in 9 months.

5)It must be due some profit taking (Badge says around here). But there hasnt been a bull market for 17 years and on valuations the market can easily go to 1500 on a 2 year view v S&P PEs.

Its the net buying by locals that is really key here (I havent really tested it properly). Low deposit rates, little real investment potential, sterilization over, very good fundamentals. Obviously buying at its years peak doesnt sound too smart but the fact it is trading at its peak is pretty impressive. Best day to invest is usually December 6th.

Is it you that Abhisit eventually hired as THE PR consultant for Thailand ?

I mean " the market can easily go to 1500 on a 2 year view " when at the same time

some prominent people are forecasting 5,000 on the DJIA and while Shanghai and Tokyo

languish in the doldrums ?

Oh i forgot this is the land of unicorns where condo prices only ever go UP.

And you still havent said how or when they will be able to pay off their 1997 debt

- i mean some of those " assets " after 13 years will be starting to look a little shabby ?

Well Midas, I am not obviously expecting US markets to halve basically but stay flat. But really that forecast is not totally unreasonable.

1. I believe that Thailand has emerged as one of the success stories of the financial crisis - C/A surplus, small fiscal deficit, no banking problem, large reserves, no asset bubble. No need for austerity.

2. The market is trading on 12.8x historic PE well below its long term average. The S&P is on 23x year end earnings (gave them an extra couple of quarters). 10% earnings year for 2 years 19x earnings is at least 1500 for the SET.

3. Finally it is unrealistic to expect the BoT to continue sterilizing. So either they have to allow further depreciation of the baht or expand money supply and take pressure off the baht. A gentle asset bubble after so many years might be quite productive especially if exports growth slows.

Of course it probably wont happen but it is not inconceivable. Clearly the market looks a bit toppy short term.

[midas]

No Zorro,

I was simply explaining BJ's comment that 1000 x 12.60 = 12,600 not 1260

Anyway changing the subject completely, the Thai market is quite interesting (I think Zorro called a near bottom there.)

So what's interesting....

1) It is basically at its year's highs. Highly unusual given China's fall.

2) Fundamentals and valuations fine but not great. 2 of my companies will report profits down qoq for the first time in 5q

3) This is where it gets interesting. Locals are buying into a rising market. This is incredibly rare - 2H 1993 and 2003. (I think). Net buyers this year. Net buyers first two weeks of July. Generally they sell as foreigners bid the market up and buy as they sell it down (cos no profit.) This can lead to some very big moves.

4) It is beginning to look like there are the first signs of good speccy behavior. Look at STA.BK stock up 10x, volume up 500x in 9 months.

5)It must be due some profit taking (Badge says around here). But there hasnt been a bull market for 17 years and on valuations the market can easily go to 1500 on a 2 year view v S&P PEs.

Its the net buying by locals that is really key here (I havent really tested it properly). Low deposit rates, little real investment potential, sterilization over, very good fundamentals. Obviously buying at its years peak doesnt sound too smart but the fact it is trading at its peak is pretty impressive. Best day to invest is usually December 6th.

Is it you that Abhisit eventually hired as THE PR consultant for Thailand ?

I mean " the market can easily go to 1500 on a 2 year view " when at the same time

some prominent people are forecasting 5,000 on the DJIA and while Shanghai and Tokyo

languish in the doldrums ?

Oh i forgot this is the land of unicorns where condo prices only ever go UP.

And you still havent said how or when they will be able to pay off their 1997 debt

- i mean some of those " assets " after 13 years will be starting to look a little shabby ?

Well Midas, I am not obviously expecting US markets to halve basically but stay flat. But really that forecast is not totally unreasonable.

1. I believe that Thailand has emerged as one of the success stories of the financial crisis - C/A surplus, small fiscal deficit, no banking problem, large reserves, no asset bubble. No need for austerity.

2. The market is trading on 12.8x historic PE well below its long term average. The S&P is on 23x year end earnings (gave them an extra couple of quarters). 10% earnings year for 2 years 19x earnings is at least 1500 for the SET.

3. Finally it is unrealistic to expect the BoT to continue sterilizing. So either they have to allow further depreciation of the baht or expand money supply and take pressure off the baht. A gentle asset bubble after so many years might be quite productive especially if exports growth slows.

Of course it probably wont happen but it is not inconceivable. Clearly the market looks a bit toppy short term.

Well this is what Bualuang Securities are advising their clients which ties

inwith what you said but also confirmed what Badge said :

" The SET gained last week, but our risk monitoring tools were on track. Excess liquidity and low interest rates have lured local players into taking on heavy equity exposureour quant study indicates that retail investors overwhelmingly hold stocks relative to the past. Monetary easing has ended in Thailand. Weakening external demand is a key risk factor for exports. As such, our market breadth indicatorsthe AD Line and the McClellan Oscillatorboth suggest a correction is nigh. "

a.k.a ponzi / casino

Edited July 19, 2010 by midas

[BlackJack]

Blackjack there is strong support at these levels , you can see the strong volume and follow up buying in the bollinger squeeze even though SPL was trending down. Tomorrow will be interesting since SPL just established support last few days after breaking to down side , will watch it. Hard to find negative F/A about it on other forums however T/A seems to play a bigger part in the markets these days or am I imaging that?

unfortunately the announcement over the weekend of a Australian government federal erection caused havoc in the OZ markets at opening today. However SPL is still unchanged.

I think this next month will be rocky for OZ as when the world farts this market wobbles

timing is all things

[BlackJack]

''''Orbis have bought 8.7m Shares over the last couple of weeks - and Simon Marais is the PM doing it... he is one of the smartest bio-tech guys on the street - look at how they bought ACR in the development stage and where it is now.

SPL are only 6mnth away from revenues on their Durex deal and with cash in the bank and a huge pipeline of other products'''

Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel.

yahhh greed is good

[midas]

Parvis you are the derivative expert

I read this comment on the web today

" TODAY WAS LOWEST PUT VOLUME SINCE 07 " which was followed

by the following comment by someone else ?

" If true, that is insane. And very very bearish."

But i dont understand the mechanism of this because its 180 degrees

to what you would expect! But as usual there must be a logical

explanation and I thought you might know ?

[Parvis]

Parvis you are the derivative expert

I read this comment on the web today

" TODAY WAS LOWEST PUT VOLUME SINCE 07 " which was followed

by the following comment by someone else ?

" If true, that is insane. And very very bearish."

But i dont understand the mechanism of this because its 180 degrees

to what you would expect! But as usual there must be a logical

explanation and I thought you might know ?

Correct - low put volume (put/call ratio) TENDS to be a short term negative - therefore the Market should (more correctly WILL) go down tomorrow Tuesday.

However, you cannot use the P/C ratio alone for actual timing - you should use it more as "confirmation" with other indications.

MECHANISM:

1) Small traders tend to buy (go long) puts or calls since to sell short (write) has a much higher capital requirement (higher risk).

2) Institutions etc. primarily buy puts as a ratio to their long asset holdings as "down side insurance/protection" (highest volume puts).

3) Market makers tend to ONLY SHORT (also called "write") PUTS OR CALLS since time is in their favor (premium deteriorates as time passes).

When the p/c ratio is very low - this tends to indicate that "3" are shorting CALLS in the anticipation that Market will sell off (inside information?).

As I said - this is short term indicator only.

At present - I see Market going up Tuesday morning - then selling off. At the end of the day Tuesday (last hour) - there is a strong potential that Market will recover sharply. At that time you should notice that put/call ratio will become high. Should this occur - as I described - there is a strong potential Market will go up 700 points on DJI within the next week or so.

But I do not trade on projected anticipation - but rather what the Market is telling me at any given time (my "inside information" ie the "inside of my crystall ball").

Edited July 20, 2010 by Parvis

[Abrak]

Parvis you are the derivative expert

I read this comment on the web today

" TODAY WAS LOWEST PUT VOLUME SINCE 07 " which was followed

by the following comment by someone else ?

" If true, that is insane. And very very bearish."

But i dont understand the mechanism of this because its 180 degrees

to what you would expect! But as usual there must be a logical

explanation and I thought you might know ?

Midas,

I thought you got this concept. If 100% of investors are bullish, it means 100% believe the market is going up. Logically they are all maximum invested in the market and also there is not 1 buyer of a PUT. If 1% turn bearish and sell there are no buyers and the market will fall.

If 100% of people think something is undervalued and going up, how can it possibly not be overvalued and going down?

Incidentally very low put volume is especially bearish given how well the market has performed relative to others. Many professional investors like to lock in gains and outperformance. Investing in Thailand over the last six months would have helped your returns. Even if you are still bullish of the market you might well like to buy a put simply to hedge that position.

If the market goes down you have essentially locked in most of gains with the put and if it continues going up all you have done is take the 'edge' off your outperformance. I dont trade them though so I dont know if the option premiums are too high.

[midas]

Parvis you are the derivative expert

I read this comment on the web today

" TODAY WAS LOWEST PUT VOLUME SINCE 07 " which was followed

by the following comment by someone else ?

" If true, that is insane. And very very bearish."

But i dont understand the mechanism of this because its 180 degrees

to what you would expect! But as usual there must be a logical

explanation and I thought you might know ?

Correct - low put volume (put/call ratio) TENDS to be a short term negative - therefore the Market should (more correctly WILL) go down tomorrow Tuesday.

However, you cannot use the P/C ratio alone for actual timing - you should use it more as "confirmation" with other indications.

MECHANISM:

1) Small traders tend to buy (go long) puts or calls since to sell short (write) has a much higher capital requirement (higher risk).

2) Institutions etc. primarily buy puts as a ratio to their long asset holdings as "down side insurance/protection" (highest volume puts).

3) Market makers tend to ONLY SHORT (also called "write") PUTS OR CALLS since time is in their favor (premium deteriorates as time passes).

When the p/c ratio is very low - this tends to indicate that "3" are shorting CALLS in the anticipation that Market will sell off (inside information?).

As I said - this is short term indicator only.

At present - I see Market going up Tuesday morning - then selling off. At the end of the day Tuesday (last hour) - there is a strong potential that Market will recover sharply. At that time you should notice that put/call ratio will become high. Should this occur - as I described - there is a strong potential Market will go up 700 points on DJI within the next week or so.

But I do not trade on projected anticipation - but rather what the Market is telling me at any given time (my "inside information" ie the "inside of my crystall ball").

Thank you so much :jap:

" Market will go up 700 points on DJI within the next week or so " WOW !!!

[midas]

Parvis you are the derivative expert

I read this comment on the web today

" TODAY WAS LOWEST PUT VOLUME SINCE 07 " which was followed

by the following comment by someone else ?

" If true, that is insane. And very very bearish."

But i dont understand the mechanism of this because its 180 degrees

to what you would expect! But as usual there must be a logical

explanation and I thought you might know ?

Midas,

I thought you got this concept. If 100% of investors are bullish, it means 100% believe the market is going up. Logically they are all maximum invested in the market and also there is not 1 buyer of a PUT. If 1% turn bearish and sell there are no buyers and the market will fall.

I do now after thinking about it. At first it didnt make sense because

if it was " very very bearish " I thought then why wouldnt everyone rush out and buy Puts ?( depending on far down you thought it would still go of course and provided enough marjet makers had actually written enough puts to be able to buy !

If 100% of people think something is undervalued and going up, how can it possibly not be overvalued and going down?

Incidentally very low put volume is especially bearish given how well the market has performed relative to others. Many professional investors like to lock in gains and outperformance. Investing in Thailand over the last six months would have helped your returns. Even if you are still bullish of the market you might well like to buy a put simply to hedge that position.

If the market goes down you have essentially locked in most of gains with the put and if it continues going up all you have done is take the 'edge' off your outperformance. I dont trade them though so I dont know if the option premiums are too high.

Edited July 20, 2010 by midas

[Parvis]

Midas

Please take my projection of Market going up after this sell-off on Tuesday as much as 700 points - in the next week or two - with a "grain of salt".

I see certain indications that we again are reaching a "turning point" to the upside - but I expect certain things "to fall into place" - which have not yet happened. FOR NOW - THE MARKET IS GOING DOWN.

As far as derivatives are concerned - consider them as "trading tools". The same principles as Stocks DO NOT APPLY.

Edited July 20, 2010 by Parvis

[BlackJack]

AND . ASX up 4.8% today - gold

woooh whoooo

[nakachalet]

quoting....

Parvis you are the derivative expert.

At present - I see Market going up Tuesday morning - then selling off. At the end of the day Tuesday (last hour) - there is a strong potential that Market will recover sharply. At that time you should notice that put/call ratio will become high. Should this occur - as I described - there is a strong potential Market will go up 700 points on DJI within the next week or so. But I do not trade on projected anticipation - but rather what the Market is telling me at any given time (my "inside information" ie the "inside of my crystall ball").

parvis....

as you guesstimate.... Market going up Tuesday morning - then selling off ....

the end of the day.... Tuesday (last hour) - there is strong potential that Market will recover sharply.

just to help you prove your points....

i'll go long 10 ym during the opening, then sell 10 back sometimes during the next hour or so.... and we'll see if your forecast is on par....

and sometimes thereafter, i shall short another 10 with the intention to buy them back sometimes during the last hour....

to help you prove your second set of theory....

i hope we have winners on both the long and the short sides of the trades....

we have gone 10 long on ym at the indicated enlarged price of 9975

JUST DECIDE FOR YOURSELF.... JUST W H E N DO YOU WISH TO UNLOAD THE 10 LONG POSITIONS, OK?....

according to parvis.... price should go higher than 9975.... :jap:

Edited July 20, 2010 by nakachalet