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18
Bitcoin. The early days.
In my post, I was addressing the threat of quantum computing to blockchain encryption. Despite the below missive, I have no idea why MSTR dropped 7% yesterday 😁. As far as Bitcoin (BTC) as an investment is concerned, I do not think BTC is going to zero. It is not going to be made illegal. In the current climate, the opposite is true (although the UK seem to be trying their best to prevent UK tax payers from using crypto investments to get ahead). I think there is a floor of about USD 100k, basis recent ETF inflows and the OTC activity used to fund the so-called Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BTC-TCs), but in the event of a replay of the GFC, this floor may not hold. With reference to the diagram in Conno's post: I think BTC will start to see a capital rotation from all the asset classes into BTC. How much in total, and how much per asset class I do not know. The vehicle for this is provided by BTC-TCs and Strategy's (MSTR) playbook is the best as far as I am aware. What Strategy are offering with STRD, STRK & STRF is SEC-approved exposure to Bitcoin for corporate & treasury money managers who are not allowed to invest directly in BTC. This means an opportunity to get out of underperforming bonds, REITs, Real Estate, etc. and into Bitcoin. A side effect of the BTC-TCs (the ones that make good on their strategies) will be that their share prices will increase at a faster rate than BTC itself. This is similar to how gold miners with low AISC see share price accretion at a higher rate then gold price accretion. It implies a strategy of allocating some cash to these companies, and periodically take some off the table and buy bitcoin with it, ending up with more BTC than if you had bought BTC instead of shares. When that happens we should see property (including residential) and bond prices fall. If I am a young person trying to get on the property ladder, this is A Good Thing(TM). The deflation in housing markets will not harm the sellers, since they will be rotating into another asset class with a short history but unbeaten CAGR. Some might be interested in picking up some sovereign debt if the prices fall enough that the yields look to beat real inflation by a few %. You can't print Bitcoin as is the case with government fiat. The current supply of freshly mined BTC is currently BTC 3.125 every 10 minutes (every block), which is 144 * BTC 3.125 = BTC 450 per day (only USD 54M per day at current prices) plus the books of the DEX and CEX exchanges plus whatever is done via OTC. As we'd expect with gold and silver, if the larger money managers decided to allocate only 1 - 2% to BTC, the amount of capital they would have to convert to BTC can only boost the price. At the same time, it would likely raise the price support floor. I've gone on long enough... -
19
Transport Pattaya Gridlock Sparks Urgent Transport Solutions
you want Cambodia to bomb innocent families ? -
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Son needs a Visa to help care for his Father in Pattaya
Nah, the cost in the US is absolutely horrendous. I wish him the best, because it's a tough situation. Now, my question is, doesn't the son have a job he needs to go back to in the US? No one needs to answer that. It's just a hypothetical question. -
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Report Gripen Fighter Jet Deal Still Alive, Says Thai Air Force
I know....I promise, in future, to groom (bit like Trump) carefully through each thread regardless of how long and make sure I read everything you post before daring to make a comment.....please accept my profound apologies. -
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