I'm Short Crude Oil!

[Harmonica]

I must be out of my mind -- this is worse than the Dollar -- if I were to say such a thing in public (or pubic) I'd be shot or tortured!

Here goes anyway:

I'm SHORT the Crude (just like The Donald!)

but not even Tech. pros are agreeing with me ...

so I'm using a TIGHT STOPLOSS .. tight, tight, tight!

worst case scenario, loss = US $2,500

I can live with that!

[terdsak_12]

Eh???

[Thetyim]

Harmonica uses financial language that most of us cannot understand.

I think he is trying to say that he thinks the price of oil will fall.

[buadhai]

"short"

[Phil Conners]

Don't try to catch a falling knife ...

[Harmonica]

Don't try to catch a falling knife ...

But this one was rising & I caught it just as it completed its rise and started its fall; or so it seems anyway. We'll see.

[Harmonica]

Harmonica uses financial language that most of us cannot understand.

I think he is trying to say that he thinks the price of oil will fall.

That is exactly what I'm saying.

Question is, "am I correct?"

[buadhai]

Question is, "am I correct?"

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Only time will tell....

[ArtfulD]

I think this trade will come off, perhaps not for a long term trade but deffinatly for a shorter term swing trade. Ive seen a few people shorting oil just now, although the same people never went long during the upward moves for some reason. When you post your trades however....put in entry price and your stops....adds more credability

[Harmonica]

I must be out of my mind -- this is worse than the Dollar -- if I were to say such a thing in public (or pubic) I'd be shot or tortured! 

Here goes anyway:

I'm SHORT the Crude (just like The Donald!)

but not even Tech. pros are agreeing with me ...

so I'm using a TIGHT STOPLOSS .. tight, tight, tight!

worst case scenario, loss = US $2,500

I can live with that! 

Slamdunk!

Crude Oil sold off on big volume!

[Phil Conners]

Yeah well, what did you expect? :shrug:

[Harmonica]

Yeah well, what did you expect? :shrug:

Then call the next one -- what do you say?

[Harmonica]

I must be out of my mind -- this is worse than the Dollar -- if I were to say such a thing in public (or pubic) I'd be shot or tortured!  

Here goes anyway:

I'm SHORT the Crude (just like The Donald!)

but not even Tech. pros are agreeing with me ...

so I'm using a TIGHT STOPLOSS .. tight, tight, tight!

worst case scenario, loss = US $2,500

I can live with that! 

Slamdunk!

Crude Oil sold off on big volume!

New STOP = 56.5

[Phil Conners]

Yeah well, what did you expect? :shrug:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Then call the next one -- what do you say?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't gamble anymore (aka. "play the stock market") after losing my shirt when the tech bubble burst ... but if I did I would certainly not short something that can only go one way - at least until someone find a viable alternative to fossil fuel.

[Harmonica]

Yeah well, what did you expect? :shrug:

Then call the next one -- what do you say?

I don't gamble anymore (aka. "play the stock market") after losing my shirt when the tech bubble burst ... but if I did I would certainly not short something that can only go one way - at least until someone find a viable alternative to fossil fuel.

QED!

You have just, unbeknownst to you & unintentionally, stated why you lost a bundle in the bubble-era!

Kommen Sie hierher bitte, listen & neutralize that ignominious defeat! :D

[Harmonica]

I must be out of my mind -- this is worse than the Dollar -- if I were to say such a thing in public (or pubic) I'd be shot or tortured! 

Here goes anyway:

I'm SHORT the Crude (just like The Donald!)

but not even Tech. pros are agreeing with me ...

so I'm using a TIGHT STOPLOSS .. tight, tight, tight!

worst case scenario, loss = US $2,500

I can live with that! 

Look Ma, Crude's gone below the 20-day moving average.

Momentum trendline breached but not yet busted!

I've taken out the Apache rifle & am waiting on the mountain top for a clear shot this evening, Thai time. The shot will be taken at 1,000 yards.

If I get a clear shot I'll quadruple my existing SHORT!

If there is no clear shot, I'll take wifey out for a drive!

If I'm wrong, have Pa punch a tiny hole in the coffin!

[Harmonica]

I must be out of my mind -- this is worse than the Dollar -- if I were to say such a thing in public (or pubic) I'd be shot or tortured!  

Here goes anyway:

I'm SHORT the Crude (just like The Donald!)

but not even Tech. pros are agreeing with me ...

so I'm using a TIGHT STOPLOSS .. tight, tight, tight!

worst case scenario, loss = US $2,500

I can live with that! 

Look Ma, Crude's gone below the 20-day moving average.

Momentum trendline breached but not yet busted!

I've taken out the Apache rifle & am waiting on the mountain top for a clear shot this evening, Thai time. The shot will be taken at 1,000 yards.

If I get a clear shot I'll quadruple my existing SHORT!

If there is no clear shot, I'll take wifey out for a drive!

If I'm wrong, have Pa punch a tiny hole in the coffin!

------ -------

No shot yet! Will try again today. See chart below for a CLEAR as a bell entry point for a SHORT position; i.e. the red line

Original SHORT still in place. NO changes made thus far.

[jaidam]

Hi harmonica,

Just wondering if you've reconsidered your crude oil price forecast.Shame I can't find the thread but if I remember correctly you stated that you expect the price of crude to drop to 10$/barrel.

Although a chart sceptic I cant help but notice that your crude oil chart is going in the opposite direction.Up.This is unsurprising as oil is in short supply.Opec pumping to near capacity already.World population increasing and wealth increasing.No realistic alternative to fossil fuels.Bear in mind that the middle east is also relatively stable at the mo.

I see forecasts for crude going as high as 105$/barrel.That I find very possible.

10$???

[Harmonica]

Hi harmonica,

Just wondering if you've reconsidered your crude oil price forecast.Shame I can't find the thread but if I remember correctly you stated that you expect the price of crude to drop to 10$/barrel.

Although a chart sceptic I cant help but notice that your crude oil chart is going in the opposite direction.Up.This is unsurprising as oil is in short supply.Opec pumping to near capacity already.World population increasing and wealth increasing.No realistic alternative to fossil fuels.Bear in mind that the middle east is also relatively stable at the mo.

I see forecasts for crude going as high as 105$/barrel.That I find very possible.

10$???

Jaidam,

First things first -- my crude oil SHORT got closed automatically when the market triggered my protective STOP. I am out with only a small profit for my trouble. But I am positioning for a re-entry, perhaps next week -- don't know for sure when, but will post my entry when confirmed by the market order taker system.

Crude made a new closing high yesterday, Friday; that excites and fires me up even more -- the coming collapse will be something to behold!

OK, on to your question or statement, or dig or ding?

I too have seen the forecasts for Crude @ $105 etc., -- secondly, there is absolutely no shortage, none whatsoever; there is actually a 100+ year surplus; I will try to dig up some relevant "fundamental" evidence -- something that I remember seeing about 4 weeks ago; just don't remember where at the moment.

My prediction for Crude oil stands at around $10+ within 4 years, most likely 3 years! I have no intention to change that.

Going up? I caught the March 22nd "going down" -- but now Crude's going up; I made a profit, not much, but a profit nonetheless -- and am now, as said earlier, waiting for the next turn, which I expect, will not be much longer, and will hopefully be the profitable move!

See you at the next turn! Have a good weekend!

[~G~]

My prediction for Crude oil stands at around $10+ within 4 years, most likely 3 years!  I have no intention to change that.

10$ in 3-4 years? I assume than that China's and India's industrial development will come to a complete stop, that Americans and Europeans will all convert to bicycles and candles and that we'll use dragons for trasnportation instead of airplanes...

Edited April 2, 2005 by ~G~

[The_Eye_Of_Sauron]

How do you trade physical/forward soft or hard commodities if you are based in Thailand?

Presumably you have Broking accounts set up offshore. Are these easy to establish?

[thaiaan]

How do you trade physical/forward soft or hard commodities if you are based in Thailand?

Presumably you have Broking accounts set up offshore. Are these easy to establish?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

He buys a quart of Valvoline 10W-40 motor oil when he's long oil and sells it when he's short oil.

He pawns his public high school gold-plated school ring when he's short gold and gets it back when he's long gold.

He is a major trader all right!

On the net a pauper can sound like a millionaire but unfortunately a harmonica ain't a Stradivarius and his numerous posts reveal his true financial situation.

I have more in my wallet than he has in his one bank account and have more in my three bank accounts than he will ever make in his lifetime especially if he actually believes oil will go to $10 and gold to $250 and the dollar isn't a dead currency.

God I love it so! snicker...

[jaidam]

How do you trade physical/forward soft or hard commodities if you are based in Thailand?

Presumably you have Broking accounts set up offshore. Are these easy to establish?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

He buys a quart of Valvoline 10W-40 motor oil when he's long oil and sells it when he's short oil.

He pawns his public high school gold-plated school ring when he's short gold and gets it back when he's long gold.

He is a major trader all right!

On the net a pauper can sound like a millionaire but unfortunately a harmonica ain't a Stradivarius and his numerous posts reveal his true financial situation.

I have more in my wallet than he has in his one bank account and have more in my three bank accounts than he will ever make in his lifetime especially if he actually believes oil will go to $10 and gold to $250 and the dollar isn't a dead currency.

God I love it so! snicker...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Harmonica certainly talks a good fight.

Seems a bit cruel to laugh at his misadventures on the futures markets though.But I cant help it!!

[OlRedEyes]

Fun playing the corrections, yes?

I'd keep a gun handy, not for a 1000m shot, but 1cm... Nice double bottom on that chart.

[Harmonica]

My prediction for Crude oil stands at around $10+ within 4 years, most likely 3 years!  I have no intention to change that.

10$ in 3-4 years? I assume than that China's and India's industrial development will come to a complete stop, that Americans and Europeans will all convert to bicycles and candles and that we'll use dragons for trasnportation instead of airplanes...

Didn't you say the same things in 1990 when Oil stood at $41 and then 8 years later was @ $10? Hehehehehe

[jaidam]

Harmonica,

Sorry this cut/paste is so long but very interesting.

The gist of it is that oil production has aleady peaked.Do you have a counter argument? If its true that peak production has passed then the $10 barrel is hisory.

Regards.

Expert: Saudi oil may have peaked

By Adam Porter in Perpignan, France

Sunday 20 February 2005, 10:58 Makka Time, 7:58 GMT

The Saudi Arabian oilfield al-Qatif east of Riyadh

Related:

Saudi bid to boost oil output fails

Opec to hike oil output

Saudi ups oil output to curb prices

As oil prices remain above $45 a barrel, a major market mover has cast a worrying future prediction.Energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, of Simmons & Co International, has been outspoken in his warnings about peak oil before. His new statement is his strongest yet, "we may have already passed peak oil".

The subject of peak oil, the point at which the world's finite supply of oil begins to decline, is a hot topic in the industry.

Arguments are commonplace over whether it will happen at all, when it will happen or whether it has already happened. Simmons, a Republican adviser to the Bush-Cheney energy plan, believes it "is the world's number one problem, far more serious than global warming".

Saudi oil peaking?

Speaking exclusively to Aljazeera, Simmons came out with a statement that, if proven true over time, could herald by far the biggest energy crisis mankind has known.

"If Saudi Arabia have damaged their fields, accidentally or not, by overproducing them, then we may have already passed peak oil. Iran has certainly peaked, there is no way on Earth they can ever get back to their production of six million barrels per day (mbpd)."

Simmons believes Iran's oil production has also peaked

The technical term for damaging an oilfield by overproduction is rate sensitivity. In other words, if the oil is pulled out of the ground too fast, it damages the fragile geological structure of the field. This can make as much as 80% of the oil within the field unextractable. Of course, at the moment, virtually every producer is at full tilt. The most important among them is Saudi Arabia; their Gharwar field is the world's biggest.

One of the first hints that Simmons got over possible Saudi Arabian overproduction was from researching an obscure US Senate committee meeting in 1974.

Field damage

"A whistleblower in Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia's oil company, was first reported in The Washington Post. He had claimed that Aramco had been overproducing the giant Gharwar field and that if they did not slow down, they would damage the reservoirs.

"The committee, which swore witnesses in under oath, produced over 1400 pages of documentation on the subject, it included some specialist advice which advised cutting Saudi production to 4mbpd to maintain production levels."

Currently, at near maximum production, Saudi Arabia is producing about 9mbpd, though recently they claimed they could potentially produce 12mbpd or even as much as 20mbpd. A claim Simmons called "pie in the sky".

"The faster you pull a reservoir, the faster you pull out all of the easy-to-produce oil," explains Simmons. "What happens is that you lose massive amounts of what the oil industry calls oil-left-behind still inside the field. These issues, as you can see, have been known about for years."

Overproduction

"If you look at what Iran is doing, they are actually going to inject natural gas to the tune of 2bcf (billion cubic feet), through a 72in pipe into their Aghajari oilfield. It is a $2bn project. This is in order just to boost production from 200,000bpd to 300,000bpd. In the 1970s Aghajari was producing 1mbpd. It has been overproduced."

In 2004 Shell said it had lost 20% of its reserves

Simmons also says the same thing happened with the oil company El Paso last year.

"At the same time as the Shell write-off, El Paso realised they had been producing their fields too hard. As a result they had to write off 41% of their reserves." In 2004 Shell first announced it had lost about 20% of its oil reserves.

Another clue came as Simmons discovered a ferocious debate that had been going on inside Saudi Aramco about overproduction.

"The company claimed in the early 1970s that it would be able to produce 20 to 25 mbpd, then by 1978 it was 12mbpd. Now it looks like 9.8mbpd is the maximum," he says.

Precious resource

"Luckily for them, demand quietened down in the 1980s. People thought when they cut production that they were simply trying to drive up oil prices, but in fact they were resting their fields to limit the damage.

"But then came the first Gulf war and they were forced to crank production up again and they have been fighting the problem ever since.

"In 1981 in their own book, Aramco and its World, something they give out to new employees and such, they openly talked about how maximising production would permanently harm their fields and that maximum production could not continue. They thought demand would fall and the fields would be sustained. Unfortunately that has not been the case."

The reasons for maximising production are not always obvious, they can be technical, but also geo-political.

"There is always a balance for producers. Do you want to conserve your fields and produce slowly? Or do you want to be a statesman? Would you rather be a market leader with all that brings, or a smaller, less powerful producer?"

The idea that Saudi Arabia could force its production up to 12mbpd or higher is met with scorn by Simmons.

"This is dangerous stuff," warns Simmons. "If we say they have not peaked and then they choose to further increase production, they will only hasten their field decline, and waste huge amounts of valuable oil into the bargain. And oil, as we are only now coming to realise, is the world's most precious resource."

[Harmonica]

Harmonica,

Sorry this cut/paste is so long but very interesting.

The gist of it is that oil production has aleady peaked.Do you have a counter argument? If its true that peak production has passed then the $10 barrel is hisory.

Regards.

Expert: Saudi oil may have peaked

By Adam Porter in Perpignan, France

Sunday 20 February 2005, 10:58 Makka Time, 7:58 GMT

The Saudi Arabian oilfield al-Qatif east of Riyadh

Related:

Saudi bid to boost oil output fails

Opec to hike oil output

Saudi ups oil output to curb prices

As oil prices remain above $45 a barrel, a major market mover has cast a worrying future prediction.Energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, of Simmons & Co International, has been outspoken in his warnings about peak oil before. His new statement is his strongest yet, "we may have already passed peak oil".

The subject of peak oil, the point at which the world's finite supply of oil begins to decline, is a hot topic in the industry.

Arguments are commonplace over whether it will happen at all, when it will happen or whether it has already happened. Simmons, a Republican adviser to the Bush-Cheney energy plan, believes it "is the world's number one problem, far more serious than global warming".

Saudi oil peaking?

Speaking exclusively to Aljazeera, Simmons came out with a statement that, if proven true over time, could herald by far the biggest energy crisis mankind has known.

"If Saudi Arabia have damaged their fields, accidentally or not, by overproducing them, then we may have already passed peak oil. Iran has certainly peaked, there is no way on Earth they can ever get back to their production of six million barrels per day (mbpd)."

Simmons believes Iran's oil production has also peaked

The technical term for damaging an oilfield by overproduction is rate sensitivity. In other words, if the oil is pulled out of the ground too fast, it damages the fragile geological structure of the field. This can make as much as 80% of the oil within the field unextractable. Of course, at the moment, virtually every producer is at full tilt. The most important among them is Saudi Arabia; their Gharwar field is the world's biggest.

One of the first hints that Simmons got over possible Saudi Arabian overproduction was from researching an obscure US Senate committee meeting in 1974.

Field damage

"A whistleblower in Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia's oil company, was first reported in The Washington Post. He had claimed that Aramco had been overproducing the giant Gharwar field and that if they did not slow down, they would damage the reservoirs.

"The committee, which swore witnesses in under oath, produced over 1400 pages of documentation on the subject, it included some specialist advice which advised cutting Saudi production to 4mbpd to maintain production levels."

Currently, at near maximum production, Saudi Arabia is producing about 9mbpd, though recently they claimed they could potentially produce 12mbpd or even as much as 20mbpd. A claim Simmons called "pie in the sky".

"The faster you pull a reservoir, the faster you pull out all of the easy-to-produce oil," explains Simmons. "What happens is that you lose massive amounts of what the oil industry calls oil-left-behind still inside the field. These issues, as you can see, have been known about for years."

Overproduction

"If you look at what Iran is doing, they are actually going to inject natural gas to the tune of 2bcf (billion cubic feet), through a 72in pipe into their Aghajari oilfield. It is a $2bn project. This is in order just to boost production from 200,000bpd to 300,000bpd. In the 1970s Aghajari was producing 1mbpd. It has been overproduced."

In 2004 Shell said it had lost 20% of its reserves

Simmons also says the same thing happened with the oil company El Paso last year.

"At the same time as the Shell write-off, El Paso realised they had been producing their fields too hard. As a result they had to write off 41% of their reserves." In 2004 Shell first announced it had lost about 20% of its oil reserves.

Another clue came as Simmons discovered a ferocious debate that had been going on inside Saudi Aramco about overproduction.

"The company claimed in the early 1970s that it would be able to produce 20 to 25 mbpd, then by 1978 it was 12mbpd. Now it looks like 9.8mbpd is the maximum," he says.

Precious resource

"Luckily for them, demand quietened down in the 1980s. People thought when they cut production that they were simply trying to drive up oil prices, but in fact they were resting their fields to limit the damage.

"But then came the first Gulf war and they were forced to crank production up again and they have been fighting the problem ever since.

"In 1981 in their own book, Aramco and its World, something they give out to new employees and such, they openly talked about how maximising production would permanently harm their fields and that maximum production could not continue. They thought demand would fall and the fields would be sustained. Unfortunately that has not been the case."

The reasons for maximising production are not always obvious, they can be technical, but also geo-political.

"There is always a balance for producers. Do you want to conserve your fields and produce slowly? Or do you want to be a statesman? Would you rather be a market leader with all that brings, or a smaller, less powerful producer?"

The idea that Saudi Arabia could force its production up to 12mbpd or higher is met with scorn by Simmons.

"This is dangerous stuff," warns Simmons. "If we say they have not peaked and then they choose to further increase production, they will only hasten their field decline, and waste huge amounts of valuable oil into the bargain. And oil, as we are only now coming to realise, is the world's most precious resource."

$10/barrel -- no change! That's the call.

I'm waiting to go SHORT -- you disagree; quite vehemently I might add, so why not put your money where your mouth is and go LONG?

I remember in a previous post, you stated "fundamentals, fundamentals, fundamentals" -- right?

You have the "fundamentals" on your side.

So TAKE a position!

What do you say, maestro?

[Harmonica]

How do you trade physical/forward soft or hard commodities if you are based in Thailand?

Presumably you have Broking accounts set up offshore. Are these easy to establish?

He buys a quart of Valvoline 10W-40 motor oil when he's long oil and sells it when he's short oil.

He pawns his public high school gold-plated school ring when he's short gold and gets it back when he's long gold.

He is a major trader all right!

On the net a pauper can sound like a millionaire but unfortunately a harmonica ain't a Stradivarius and his numerous posts reveal his true financial situation.

I have more in my wallet than he has in his one bank account and have more in my three bank accounts than he will ever make in his lifetime especially if he actually believes oil will go to $10 and gold to $250 and the dollar isn't a dead currency.

God I love it so! snicker...

Always interesting to see a grown man dig deep into his feminine side!

[jaidam]

Harmonica,

I'm long and I like it!!

Shell oil.Jaidam is currently long 2.600 shares.Average purch price 394.92p.Price at friday close 475p.

Any weakness in Shell price and I will consider taking some covered warrants.The S306 June 500 Shell call looks interesting.

Always happy to hear your contraian views Mr.Harmonica.

Good luck.

[Harmonica]

Harmonica,

I'm long and I like it!!

Shell oil.Jaidam is currently long 2.600 shares.Average purch price 394.92p.Price at friday close 475p.

Any weakness in Shell price and I will consider taking some covered warrants.The S306 June 500 Shell call looks interesting.

Always happy to hear your contraian views Mr.Harmonica.

Good luck.

Excellent!