I'm Short Crude Oil!

[Harmonica]

As entertainment and possibly educational I shall provide some voices from the past w.r.t 2 chief herd members, jaidam and LivinLOS, both fundamental Morons par magnifique.

I'll skip Firefan for he is always on the side of the majority, much akin to the Italians during the war; doesn't say much of value and always ends his prose with a virulent butt-sniff.

Even some wildebeast I will not eat.

OK then let's start with LivinLOS. I saved this from the US Dollar thread, so it is no work at all to dig it up, cut and past it in here today.

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>>>>>>> Jan 7th : The USD has one long term direction.. ALL my comments were based not on 'playing' the markets (both up and down as you seem to do) but on trends and long term investing / protection of assets. How precisely can the us pay back its debt (or even service it shortly) ?? it cant at current dollar price levels..

Luckily for me my asset hedge is not another fiat currency but commodity based..

2006 dollar >1.60 / Euro and possible >1.80.. 2006 gold >$800

March 12th: Metals again.. I said silver when it was around 6.50.. I missed its bottom as some elliot wave data indicated it could drop a sub 6.. took a small one at high 6's and 150k at 7.22.. Watch silver for min 10 this year.. Gold is making dollars but trading sideways against anything not continually falling.. bit more sideways action on Gold IMHO..

Oil at 55.. Heading for 60 ?? I think oil at 80 will be a figure we see inside of 24 months.. Commodities are the ticket for 2005

On March 16th:

QUOTE

The dollar plummeted on the news of $58 billion trade deficit number. The number will only worsen with now record crude. Should dollar rebound from all time low of 81, the most upside we see is 200 DMA of 86.

So Harm.. Just curious.. what was your average $ purchase price and whats your stop loss and or exit strategy ??

March 18th: Sorry to piss in the pool, but I wouldn't take dollars (for an investment not a trade) anywhere from here to the ghost of christmas past...

April 4: This in itself does not mean Harm's short term (day or monthly) position is incorrect but what it does mean is the world will need to get used to > $40 per barrel and seeing 70 within a couple of year timeframe is very very possible.. Then if one of many possible damaging factors come into play 100 coule well be the norm before this decade is out.. >>>>>>>>

End of quote

---------------------------------------------------------

My comments now:

Check back thru' the financial threads and it is easy to see that this cat, LininLOS has NOT made a single correct prediction -- he's been wrong on every count.

He's got USD 300,000 in Silver -- I was the only one to warn him about the danger of his unflinching attitude to the "fundamentals" -- he, by his own claim got in at $7.22 on silver and is still holding. He is losing money -- but there is no thought about the "opportunity cost" -- Regardless where Silver goes, a smart fundamentalist woud be in other investments especially since Silver always follows the stock market, which as we all know has been going sideways for 4 years. Bah!

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[Harmonica]

This fellow's name is jaidam:

A particularly sloppy individual for he didn't even do his homework on the Atabascar Tar Sands concept; this is a pivotal concept IMHO and even though not a fundamental player, I know of its intricacies to at least a respectable level -- but to have a fundo be so sloppy here is itself a strikeout!

With regard to his past comments addressing me or addressed at me:

This is the 2nd time in this thread he's thrown his tampon at me. What can I say?

Here was the first time and we didn't even know each other (virtually, that is) -- so if one can do this on the very first encounter, subsequent plug & eject is hardly surprising, hhehehe!

>>>>>>

What a load of horses##t.

"If I want to lose all my cash I will be the first to contract you Mr.Harmonica.

For goodness sake why can you not see that your odds/analysis are no more meaningful than tea leaves.Do you also consult them???

Anybody serious about making money with the financial markets would do far better with CAREFUL stock selection.This involves taking lots of time poring over companies balance sheets, learning about future prospects and using data such as P/E ratios etc to discover whether a stock is cheap or overvalued. To let a computer tell you when to buy or sell is just amazing.Hang on. Baaahaaahaahaa.

In short dont follow this Harmonica mans advise.He will lose you your money.

Fundamentals,fundamentals and fundamentals.The 3 keys to making money. As for me I retired at 25 and moved to LOS .Not by reading ####### tealeaves!!!! <<<<<<<<<

End of quote

My comments now:

In bold print is the siren song of herd members!

Every wildebeast worth the grass he consumes swears by this statement -- hardly original! Characteristic of a member of a herd!

The bold green print is exactly how the Media and brokerage houses think and teach -- yet, if this were correct, pray tell us Oh Lord why upwards of 95% of clients looooose money ALL the time? ... a well known stat. And while you're at it, remember the book, "Where are the customers' yachts?"

Jaidam's comments were made on the subject of the Nasdaq's QQQQ -- check back and see that nearly ALL calls on QQQQ generated money for anybody that played in response to the calls. The record is in the Nasdaq thread. One call was flat, one was stopped out for a small profit, but generally they all produced cash.

Furthermore, there was no fundamental analysis involved in those calls I made! Not a single ounce!

I'm done!

Its Sunday! Adios!

[wimpy]

STOP level might be lowered to 65.03 area -- observe market action for momentum -- if against me, then I'll consider closing out the positions @ around $65.

Will attend to you chaps in the next 2-3 posts.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Are you going to explain why you are still in the trade, and didn't honor your original stops?

I am not being antagonistic; just curious how you handled the trade.

[snoophound]

The CEO of BHP came out and said he reckoned back under 40 buckks in 6 mths

What do you guys think?

STOP level might be lowered to 65.03 area -- observe market action for momentum -- if against me, then I'll consider closing out the positions @ around $65.

Will attend to you chaps in the next 2-3 posts.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Are you going to explain why you are still in the trade, and didn't honor your original stops?

I am not being antagonistic; just curious how you handled the trade.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[jaidam]

This fellow's name is jaidam:

A particularly sloppy individual for he didn't even do his homework on the Atabascar Tar Sands concept; this is a pivotal concept IMHO and even though not a fundamental player, I know of its intricacies to at least a respectable level -- but to have a fundo be so sloppy here is itself a strikeout!

With regard to his past comments addressing me or addressed at me:

This is the 2nd time in this thread he's thrown his tampon at me.  What can I say?

Here was the first time and we didn't even know each other (virtually, that is) -- so if one can do this on the very first encounter, subsequent plug & eject is hardly surprising, hhehehe!

>>>>>>

What a load of horses##t.

"If I want to lose all my cash I will be the first to contract you Mr.Harmonica.

For goodness sake why can you not see that your odds/analysis are no more meaningful than tea leaves.Do you also consult them???

Anybody serious about making money with the financial markets would do far better with CAREFUL stock selection.This involves taking lots of time poring over companies balance sheets, learning about future prospects and using data such as P/E ratios etc to discover whether a stock is cheap or overvalued. To let a computer tell you when to buy or sell is just amazing.Hang on. Baaahaaahaahaa.

In short dont follow this Harmonica mans advise.He will lose you your money.

Fundamentals,fundamentals and fundamentals.The 3 keys to making money. As for me I retired at 25 and moved to LOS .Not by reading ####### tealeaves!!!!  <<<<<<<<<

End of quote

My comments now:

In bold print is the siren song of herd members!

Every wildebeast worth the grass he consumes swears by this statement -- hardly original!  Characteristic of a member of a herd! 

The bold green print is exactly how the Media and brokerage houses think and teach -- yet, if this were correct, pray tell us Oh Lord why upwards of 95% of clients looooose money ALL the time?  ... a well known stat.  And while you're at it, remember the book, "Where are the customers' yachts?"

Jaidam's  comments were made on the subject of the Nasdaq's QQQQ -- check back and see that nearly ALL calls on QQQQ generated money for anybody that played in response to the calls.  The record is in the Nasdaq thread.  One call was flat, one was stopped out for a small profit, but generally they all produced cash.

Furthermore, there was no fundamental analysis involved in those calls I made!  Not a single ounce!

I'm done!

Its Sunday!  Adios! 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Harmonica last week did go short,

and made lots of cash, so he thought,

but when the bill came,

'twas the end of the game,

for Harmy in the bankruptcy court!

[Butterfly]

Ok I didn't follow this thread, too long, so who won what ?

[LivinLOS]

Ha now your asking us to take a bet that only you can prove or disprove (how do we know all of your accounts ??) considering your 'market timing' no thanks Harmy..

Came out of my silver position (only had 150k harm) with modest (17 or 18k or so ??) profits (My baseline / purchase currency was Euro remember so thats easier... purchase was 5.49 Euro IIRC on the 22nd of March inclusive of all bullion dealer costs, I could quote you only the metal price and exagerate my profits) but much smaller than hoped for.. Currently nervous about the way its sitting at the low end of recent trading ranges.. I am one that buys into the GATA theories of intervention to supress metals prices to prop an ailing dollar up.. But silver is volatile and I like my money easy and dont like trading.. Waiting to re enter the silver game once the commodity explosion and fiat collapse gets really underway.. Even if I hadnt already come out with silver being 7 USD weekend close about 5.70 Euro I would still have been up +-4% or +-6K Euro even if I hadnt sold... Thanks for the warnings

Gold is still rising.. Might take out Julys peaks.. Still say 500 gold soon.. With the leverage of mining stocks prolly made close to 6 figures USD on gold and gold plays this year.. Still very firm on the long term run of gold.. Once the markets symptoms become more obvious the safe haven and inflation resisting yellow metal will be the play..

Dollar will go south.. However with it so will the Euro (scrub my earlier Euro price bet) I think in 5 years time people will see fiat currencies for the curse they are and commodities and gold will SHOCK people.. In short falling real value dollar and Euro.. High inflation.. Higher consumer prices accross the board.. Massively higher commodites costs.. Falling house prices..

And as for your 'no predictions correct' comments.. gold and oil has been doing me great has it not ?? (spot on for my April 4th 70 USD barrel I note, thanks for reminding me).. silver sideways for 5 years.. Erm not according to any 5 year chart I dig up.. anyway a modest 18k gain wasnt too bad a bet..

[LivinLOS]

Well you do go quiet there harmy..

So silver racing.. Gold at multi year highs.. Oil still mid 60's.. OPEC only able to output 'maybe' another 2 mil bpd in total (not that that makes any differene to the under invested refining capacity)..

Soaring inflation (even the laughably manipulated CPI numbers).. Raging deficits..

The start of the 5 year plan all looks like its falling into place..

[LivinLOS]

October NYMEX back up at well over 67..

So did that trigger the stop losses (again) or have the rules changed (again) ??

[Harmonica]

New SHORT @ 67 & change.

Katrina did her stuff, now they say Rita will cripple 27 refineries.

I like the talk.

Therefore hammered in this SHORT!

[LivinLOS]

What happened to your 65 stop ???

This is looking funnier and funnier by the post...

[LivinLOS]

ohh yeah and where is your stop this time ???

Any fills..

[steveromagnino]

I am missing something - I don't really understand much about short selling....

Can someone clarify this...if I short sell at say $65, then later on I call in my stop loss; then I rebuy again, and then I have another stop loss...doesn't this mean I am losing money>?

I think I will just stick to doing fundamental analysis (which apparently doesn't work according to some, despite a plethora of evidence showing the minimal benefits of charting and so on); it seems to have delivered decent enough returns for me so far.

[Firefan]

You got it right Steve. Go short at 65 with a stop/loss at 70. It hits 70 and you will "cover your short" and thereby having lost about 10% (when including trading costs, bid/offer spread Etc.).

You should do what ever works for you. The constant battle between the investment methods will never end...

Cheers!

[Butterfly]

I am missing something - I don't really understand much about short selling....

Can someone clarify this...if I short sell at say $65, then later on I call in my stop loss; then I rebuy again, and then I have another stop loss...doesn't this mean I am losing money>?

I think I will just stick to doing fundamental analysis (which apparently doesn't work according to some, despite a plethora of evidence showing the minimal benefits of charting and so on); it seems to have delivered decent enough returns for me so far.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Charts are for day traders, fundamentals for real investors, and quant for massive investment by large institutions

[LivinLOS]

You got it right Steve. Go short at 65 with a stop/loss at 70. It hits 70 and you will "cover your short" and thereby having lost about 10% (when including trading costs, bid/offer spread Etc.).

You should do what ever works for you. The constant battle between the investment methods will never end...

Cheers!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Of course if your buying or selling futures / options or other derivatives (I dont expect anyone is actually buying physical oil !!!) there is usually some fairly massive leverage meaning you lose a LOT more than 10% if there is a 10% movement..

Thats why the previous post of a buy (when the price was 61) calling a 65 buy and 3 fills with a 70 and change stop loss would have been very painful in the futures market..

I would dabble in options but futures require far too much time and stress..

[PCA]

A 5 Dollar move in Crude (CL) represents an amount of 5.000 USD/per contract

Contract_Specifications.doc

[Firefan]

You are of course right LivinLOS, I just "kept it simple" in my explanation. The futures/options route can be done while maintaining fairly low risk levels though - but the cost will be higher trading costs + the limited time periods the options/futures are valid.

I am guessing we will soon see an ETF for oil which one can use to go long/short to ones desire.

Cheers!

You got it right Steve. Go short at 65 with a stop/loss at 70. It hits 70 and you will "cover your short" and thereby having lost about 10% (when including trading costs, bid/offer spread Etc.).

You should do what ever works for you. The constant battle between the investment methods will never end...

Cheers!

Of course if your buying or selling futures / options or other derivatives (I dont expect anyone is actually buying physical oil !!!) there is usually some fairly massive leverage meaning you lose a LOT more than 10% if there is a 10% movement..

Thats why the previous post of a buy (when the price was 61) calling a 65 buy and 3 fills with a 70 and change stop loss would have been very painful in the futures market..

I would dabble in options but futures require far too much time and stress..

[Harmonica]

Jaidumb & others who were lecturing the herd, "fundamentals, fundamentals, fundamentals" .....

Low 60's for Crude. More profits tooking, toyken, taking, tawting!

That's some nice cash for the lone operator.

And wherever and however long it takes for Crude to complete forming the TOP; i.e. even if we go back to $70, I'll keep trading and raking, while Dumb and Dumber just watch in dismay as their equity goes up and down like a yoyo. Its no wonder they're in such a bad mood.

God, do I love it so!

[Harmonica]

F*cked 'em all, but will come only when Crude reaches $10/barrel; at that time, heck I might be in such a good mood, I'll drill the barrel too!

Adios

[LivinLOS]

Amazing.. You call shorts in the low 50's and claim success when oil sits in the 60's.. Amazing what some selective post time will do..

Gold up.. Silver up.. Oil up..

Sure we can see some cooling off from the peaks but the direction (especially of refined oil products) is up..

[wimpy]

Bump

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Are you going to explain why you are still in the trade, and didn't honor your original stops?

I am not being antagonistic; just curious how you handled the trade.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[simcity]

cela sont ils des rires jaunes ?

je suis sur que cela sont des rires jaunes

Edited October 12, 2005 by simcity

[steveromagnino]

Jaidumb & others who were lecturing the herd, "fundamentals, fundamentals, fundamentals" .....

     

Well, I like fundamentals, because i understand them.

Well, let's take Thai shipping stocks; fundamentals say there is a fundamental lack of link with the Baltic Dry Index (which is the basic quant driving funds investing in it).  And there is no chance of a takeover or merger really.  But local more indepth "fundamental" knowledge reveals that say PSL do a lot of forward contracts for a year, they aren't selling their ships to be used on a monthly or trip by trip basis... so using fundamentals you might say that the sub 4X p/e ratio and a major dip earlier this year around July from the BDI was actually not reflected in the fundamentals since they have annual contracts which will be reflected in their year end results, rather they reflected an external driver... so you would have bought around low 40s in June/July, then sold later in late Aug when it was around high 40s; made about 15% and that is well more than what I can get hold of the money for.  Ditto for RCL.  And besides which the dividend pays healthily, as a non trader, I don't have time to be looking at these charts to see whether my mum is sick, share is high low or whatever; so fundamentals make a nice decision driver...

Also you say.....

And wherever and however long it takes for Crude to complete forming the TOP; i.e. even if we go back to $70, I'll keep trading and raking,  while Dumb and Dumber just watch in dismay as their equity goes up and down like a yoyo.  Its no wonder they're in such a bad mood.

God, do I love it so!

   

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I am not in a bad mood; actually rather happy I guess what I am asking is a little more "fundamental". If the price of oil keeps going up and you keep taking stop losses like I have read through after wading through 12 pages of this thread (and also noting your belief in $10 oil)..... then how can you me making money and raking? You are selling short at a price, then it goes up in price... how do you make money on this, or do you ride the dips so even though the price is going up, you can find someone who will sell you future back at a lower than market price?

I think I am missing something... what is it? This is not a smart ass question; I invest in the sharemarket based on the thing you don't like - fundamentals -

this futures thing is something new

[danone]

The Oil Bubble

October 8, 2005; Page A6 - Wall Street Journal

We keep hearing the word "bubble" to describe industries with rapid and unsustainable rising prices. Hence, the Internet bubble, the telecom bubble, stock market bubble, and now, some analysts believe, a housing bubble. Yet for some mysterious reason no one speaks of the oil bubble -- though prices have tripled in two years to as high as $70 a barrel.

Reviewing the history of oil-market boom and bust confirms that we are in the midst of a classic oil bubble and that prices will eventually fall, perhaps dramatically. Despite apocalyptic warnings, the world is not running out of oil and the pumps are not going to run dry in our lifetimes -- or ever. What's more, the mechanism that will surely prevent any long-term catastrophic shortages in energy is precisely the free-market incentive to make profits that many politicians in Washington seem to regard as an evil pursuit and wish to short circuit.

The best evidence for an oil bubble comes from the lessons of America's last six energy crises dating back to the late 19th century, when there was a great scare about the industrial age grinding to a halt because of impending shortages of coal. (Today coal is superabundant, with about 500 years of supply.) Each one of these crises has run almost an identical course.

First, the crisis begins with a spike in energy prices as a result of a short-term supply shock. Next, higher prices bring doomsday claims of energy shortages, which in turn prompts government to intervene ineffectually into the marketplace. In the end, the advent of new technologies and new energy discoveries -- all inspired by the profit motive -- brings the crisis to an abrupt end, enabling oil and electricity markets to resume their virtuous longterm downward price trend.

The limits-to-growth crowd has predicted the end of oil since the days when this black gold was first discovered as an energy source in the mid-19th century. In the 1860s the U.S. Geological Survey forecast that there was "little or no chance" that oil would be found in Texas or California. In 1914 the Interior Department forecast that there was only a 10-year supply of oil left; in 1939 it calculated there was only a 13-year supply left, and in 1951 Interior warned that by the mid-1960s the oil wells would certainly run dry. In the 1970s, Jimmy Carter somberly told the nation that "we could use up all of the proven reserves of oil in the entire world by the end of the next decade."

We can ridicule these doom and gloom predictions today, but at the time they were taken seriously by scholars and politicians, just as the energy alarmists are gaining intellectual traction today. But as the late economist Julian Simon taught, by any meaningful measure oil (and all natural resources) has gotten steadily cheaper and far more bountiful in supply over time, despite periodic and even wild fluctuations in the market.

* * *

If gasoline cost today what it cost a family in 1900 (relative to income), we would be paying not $3 but $10 a gallon at the pump. Or consider that in 1860 oil sold for $4 a barrel, or the equivalent of about $400 a barrel in today's wage-adjusted prices. The first of a continuous series of innovations, in this case the invention of modern drilling techniques in 1869, cut the price by more than 90% -- to 35 cents a barrel.

Fifty years ago people would have laughed out loud at the idea of drilling for oil at the bottom of the ocean or getting fuel from sand, both of which were technologically infeasible. The first deep-sea oil rig went on line in 1965 and drilled 500 feet down. Now these rigs drill two miles into the ground -- and miraculously, the price of extracting oil from 10,000 feet deep in the sea bed today is approaching the cost of drilling 100 feet down from the richest fields in Texas or Saudi Arabia 40 years ago.

This spectacular pace of technological progress explains why over time the amount of recoverable reserves of oil has increased, not fallen. Between 1980 and 2002 the amount of known global oil reserves increased by 300 billion barrels, according to a survey by British Petroleum. Rather than the oil fields running dry, just the opposite has been happening. In 1970 Saudi Arabia had 88 billion barrels of known oil. Thirty-five years later, nearly 100 billion barrels have been extracted and yet the latest forecast is that there are still 264 billion barrels left -- although the Saudis have never allowed independent auditors to verify these numbers.

In this industry, alas, bad news tends to crowd out the good. When Shell announced earlier this year that its oil and gas reserves were down by 30%, there was a global outcry. But when Canada announced in 2004 that it has more recoverable oil from tar sands than there is oil in Saudi Arabia, the world yawned. There is estimated to be about as much oil recoverable from the shale rocks in Colorado and other western states as in all the oil fields of OPEC nations. Yes, the cost of getting that oil is still prohibitively expensive, but the combination of today's high fuel prices and improved extraction techniques means that the break-even point for exploiting it is getting ever closer.

The energy Malthusians counter that China, India and other nations will satisfy their growing appetite for oil by driving demand and prices ever higher. In the short term, yes. But over the longer term, as the Chinese become more prosperous through free markets, China will become vastly more fuel efficient and also help discover new sources of energy.

America produces twice as much output per unit of energy consumed as it did 50 years ago. Liberals who say we need government to intervene in the energy markets, to patch the alleged failings of the free market, fail to comprehend that the command-and-control economies of the last 50 years have been far and away the biggest wasters of energy (and the biggest polluters). South Korea produces about three times as much output per kilowatt of electricity as North Korea does.

This is no call for complacency or inaction in the face of very high energy prices; it's a call for realism. Higher prices for gas and fuel for home heating have cost the average U.S. family about $1,500 to $2,000 a year. (Thankfully the Bush tax cuts have given back about precisely that amount in lower tax payments to the IRS.) The tax on the American economy from higher oil prices has reached $300 million a day and has chopped nearly a percentage point off GDP growth.

* * *

Our point is that the constraints on our ability to find and extract new oil are not geologic or scientific. The real constraints on oil production are barriers created by government. Myron Ebell, an environmental analyst at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, notes that roughly 90% of the oil on the planet rests under government-owned land and these resources are abysmally managed.

In the U.S., environmentalists have erected myriad barriers to drilling for new sources of oil. The American Petroleum Institute estimates that there are at least 100 billion barrels that are fairly easily recoverable in Alaska and offshore that oil companies are not permitted to exploit. Once, we could afford the luxury of not drilling there. Now, thanks to a witch's brew of unforeseen circumstances -- political turmoil in the oil producing countries, China's surge in demand, and hurricanes that have knocked out Gulf refineries -- it's an economic and national security imperative that we do.

Here's one simple idea to increase the domestic supply of oil: Have Uncle Sam share its oil-drilling royalties with the California government. If Californians realized they could go a long way to solving their deficit and overtaxation problems by raising billions of these petro-dollars, the aversion on the left coast toward offshore drilling might well begin to subside.

We will assess at another time the many dreadful ideas -- price controls and "windfall profit" taxes -- that Congress is considering to deal with the energy crisis. But for today it is sufficient to note that the free market will deliver oil, electricity and other forms of energy at declining prices in the future, if only the government will let the market's benign and productive forces work their magic.

[Harmonica]

H&S pattern from August to October (current) with neckline @ around 62 & change. If this looks like its going to break, coupled with the support directly under becoming flimsy, look to add to SHORTY. If not, then there's nothing to do.

Just in case Jaidam is still sloppy, H&S is not a shampoo, son!

[Harmonica]

Simpler language for Jairai:

See the bottle of Head & Shoulders Shampoo?

See the nice, slick neckline @ around $62 ..... ?

Well, if $62 breaks; i.e. a daily close solidly below, that would confirm a retracement to the pantyline level @ $54. That's what the Dandruff Shampoo says.

However, right under the neckline there are a couple titties offering support to immediate decline.

If we go right thru' then its more SHORTY; if not, its time for you to get some needed sleep. Your 2600 shares will have a reprieve.

[Harmonica]

Crude dipped into the upper $59 region.

Who was the wildebeast who was yelling, "fundamentals, fundamentals, fundamentals?"

God, do I love it so!

[Harmonica]

I've closed a sizable position and will reconsider opening more SHORTS when the current support gives me less headaches.

What do I mean?

Intraday is showing a low of $59.85 with a long lower wick. This is suggesting that the support structure is starting to "fire" some elasticity and might contain the drop. There are some other factors that are giving me a headache.

5 fundamental cats got on CNBC and stated that Crude will go to $50.. These cats were the same guys who were previously calling for Crude to go to $100-200. Even more troubling is that these cats were looking at me thru' the screen the way Jaidam and LivinLos do; with brotherly love and genuine affection. This is not a good thing for me. Further exacerbating the situation is the presence of the ubiquitous Firefan.

It is not a happy scene to have fundamentalists agree with me, so I am going contrarian and being cautious.

My SHORT point of view has not changed; but I am protecting my hard work before Crude pulls a curveball on me short-term.

Adios!

[beammeup]

I've closed a sizable position and will reconsider opening more SHORTS when the current support gives me less headaches.

What do I mean?

Intraday is showing a low of $59.85 with a long lower wick.  This is suggesting that the support structure is starting to "fire" some elasticity and might contain the drop.  There are some other factors that are giving me a headache.

5 fundamental cats got on CNBC and stated that Crude will go to $50..  These cats were the same guys who were previously calling for Crude to go to $100-200.  Even more troubling is that these cats were looking at me thru' the screen the way Jaidam and LivinLos do; with brotherly love and genuine affection.  This is not a good thing for me.  Further exacerbating the situation is the presence of the ubiquitous Firefan. 

It is not a happy scene to have fundamentalists agree with me, so I am going contrarian and being cautious.

My SHORT point of view has not changed; but I am protecting my hard work before Crude pulls a curveball on me short-term.

Adios! 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Maybe its because they know that Wilma will swing left instead of right driving oil back up to 70 (temporarily) They are also expecting a colder than normal winter.

They are just toying with ya!