Baht's Strength Is Not What It Seems

[cyb]

Read on Bloomberg the baht is declining due to the King's continued ill health.

English pound back up to just under 56 bht today, but it goes up and down, usually to 53, then up in a day or two.

The pound will be toilet paper soon and then it will STILL be worth too much.

Buy forward exchange cover to protect your pensions boys, the days of 70 plus are long gone.

The pound should rise substantialy by the new year, If the predictions of an economic recovery in the uk are correct.

[cmsally]

The pound seems less unsteady than it was a few months back. It is noticeable that BOE statements and less than brilliant data are not having the major dip effect that we saw before. It would seem to be less easy for those looking to make a quick profit on the ups and downs of the GBP. Would this mean there is a switch to place bets on another currency?

How much is the actual trading affecting the worth rather than the data and news that comes out?

These are basically questions as I don't know, but from articles read this seems to be a kind of trend.

[cyb]

The pound seems less unsteady than it was a few months back. It is noticeable that BOE statements and less than brilliant data are not having the major dip effect that we saw before. It would seem to be less easy for those looking to make a quick profit on the ups and downs of the GBP. Would this mean there is a switch to place bets on another currency?

How much is the actual trading affecting the worth rather than the data and news that comes out?

These are basically questions as I don't know, but from articles read this seems to be a kind of trend.

Lets put it this way if the pm or chancellor of uk opens his mouth without thinking first the pound dips.

If they are constructive in what they say then the pound rises in value.

[chiang mai]

Read on Bloomberg the baht is declining due to the King's continued ill health.

English pound back up to just under 56 bht today, but it goes up and down, usually to 53, then up in a day or two.

The pound will be toilet paper soon and then it will STILL be worth too much.

Buy forward exchange cover to protect your pensions boys, the days of 70 plus are long gone.

The pound should rise substantialy by the new year, If the predictions of an economic recovery in the uk are correct.

I doubt both the rise in the Pound and the recovery, wait 'till you see what the budget has to offer and then you may well change your view.

[cmsally]

From reading currency reports I would say this effect had lessened in the last week or so.

[chiang mai]

I hope you are right, although it gives me no pleasure to note that the GDP figures just released are not good, there's a strong possibility that the UK may remain the only country in Europe still in recession.

[mommysboy]

The pound seems less unsteady than it was a few months back. It is noticeable that BOE statements and less than brilliant data are not having the major dip effect that we saw before. It would seem to be less easy for those looking to make a quick profit on the ups and downs of the GBP. Would this mean there is a switch to place bets on another currency?

How much is the actual trading affecting the worth rather than the data and news that comes out?

These are basically questions as I don't know, but from articles read this seems to be a kind of trend.

Yes I think the same. The pound now seems less susceptible to the shorters. The thing is if a currency is priced above fundamentals it doesn't matter the trigger story that is used, the point is it is overvalued. As a currency assumes it's true value the shorters start to get burned and move on to the next overvalued currency. It could be the baht is next in line as it seems to be at or near it's peak, that's why we see such volatility between the 2 currencies.

Make no mistake though the pound will remain low against a basket of currencies for many years to come as the UK Govt willl have to print more money and reduce spending and pay off debts. Same goes for USA and a host of others, and 2 currencies where we might see an appreciation : Euro and Baht, so don't give up hope yet.

[chiang mai]

I'm thinking of roses.

[mommysboy]

I'm thinking of roses.

Why not just say what you have to say! and once again it's you that is doing the provoking, don't start crying foul if I continue to argue, and don't start accusing me of stalking if I am diligent about it!

But what exactly is there that is positive in my statement ?, I just don't agree with the doom mongering.

Some constructive advice, you and many posters get lost in the calculations and math. What you fail to see are the basic checks and balances of real life, eg, if the the baht were to accelerate the natural 'brake' would be the big drop in exports.

Because the UK and many others are in such big trouble, I suppose it's easy(ier) to overlook the fact that Thailand,fiscally balanced or not, is also embroiled too.

Ther is no nirvana in an economic depression!

[chiang mai]

I'm thinking of roses.

Why not just say what you have to say! and once again it's you that is doing the provoking, don't start crying foul if I continue to argue, and don't start accusing me of stalking if I am diligent about it!

But what exactly is there that is positive in my statement ?, I just don't agree with the doom mongering.

Some constructive advice, you and many posters get lost in the calculations and math. What you fail to see are the basic checks and balances of real life, eg, if the the baht were to accelerate the natural 'brake' would be the big drop in exports.

Because the UK and many others are in such big trouble, I suppose it's easy(ier) to overlook the fact that Thailand,fiscally balanced or not, is also embroiled too.

Ther is no nirvana in an economic depression!

As in everything is smelling like roses - actually, was making light of your two contradictory statements, both in the same post:

"It could be the baht is next in line as it seems to be at or near it's peak", and

"and 2 currencies where we might see an appreciation : Euro and Baht, so don't give up hope yet".

Difficult to understand what you mean here or indeed what you really think and any prevailing logic, if indeed any exists.

[wilsongbrown]

Read on Bloomberg the baht is declining due to the King's continued ill health.

English pound back up to just under 56 bht today, but it goes up and down, usually to 53, then up in a day or two.

The pound will be toilet paper soon and then it will STILL be worth too much.

Buy forward exchange cover to protect your pensions boys, the days of 70 plus are long gone.

The pound should rise substantialy by the new year, If the predictions of an economic recovery in the uk are correct.

Um, according to BBCWorld today, they're not.

[mommysboy]

I'm thinking of roses.

Why not just say what you have to say! and once again it's you that is doing the provoking, don't start crying foul if I continue to argue, and don't start accusing me of stalking if I am diligent about it!

But what exactly is there that is positive in my statement ?, I just don't agree with the doom mongering.

Some constructive advice, you and many posters get lost in the calculations and math. What you fail to see are the basic checks and balances of real life, eg, if the the baht were to accelerate the natural 'brake' would be the big drop in exports.

Because the UK and many others are in such big trouble, I suppose it's easy(ier) to overlook the fact that Thailand,fiscally balanced or not, is also embroiled too.

Ther is no nirvana in an economic depression!

As in everything is smelling like roses - actually, was making light of your two contradictory statements, both in the same post:

"It could be the baht is next in line as it seems to be at or near it's peak", and

"and 2 currencies where we might see an appreciation : Euro and Baht, so don't give up hope yet".

Difficult to understand what you mean here or indeed what you really think and any prevailing logic, if indeed any exists.

Addendum then : and 2 currencies where we might see an appreciation of the pound are the Euro and Baht; not that I don't think you were well aware of what was meant!

However, that was before me learning about the even slower recovery of the UK economy, and I've a feeling that the printing presses will be even busier, and my worse case scenario of a sub 50 pound could happen assuming the baht continues to be ruinously high and there is every indication that it will be.

The problem for Thailand is that the economy has wonderful vital stats., so to speak, but as the value of the dollar continues to fall Thailand becomes even less competitive. If the baht were to gain in in strength by 20-35% as widely predicted on this thread, then surely there would be no price advantage in buying from Thailand. Wouldn't the US be better placed to produce at home and quite possibly regenerate it's own manuafacturing base in the process! Where would that leave Thailand, rather like a perfectly tuned and polished aircraft without any fuel, it would stall and that's what's happening isn't it?

As I've asked many times before, where is the demand for Thailand's exports going to come from?

[Abrak]

As I've asked many times before, where is the demand for Thailand's exports going to come from?

Ok I think you are looking at things backwards. The problem, as many people see it, is if currencies, especially the yuan remain at current levels it is a mutually destructive problem for all concerned. The UK and US are declining but with massive and unsustainable twin deficits of 15% of GDP. Plus consumption makes up a huge proportion of that GDP (and it is really fairly pointless replacing private consumption with Government consumption). So the days of consumption growth without I or net X are dead. So exchange rates can stay as they are but as western demand will be flat at best it is not going to help Asia. If you destroy your customer you are dead too.

Ultimately the global imbalances have to be reversed. Asian currencies must appreciate. The effect of course in the short term is may be to lower their underlying growth at the expense of the West. But Thailand GDP may be declining at the same rate as the UK's but it is generating surpluses. So if it fiscal deficit rose and current surplus fell then big deal. Ultimately savings rates, surpluses need to fall in Asia and consumer demand rise. While in the West the opposite needs to happen. The Asian surpluses are as much a problem for Asia as the deficits are for the West.

As Bernanke said a week ago

However, too great a reliance on external demand can also pose problems. In particular, trade surpluses achieved through policies that artificially enhance incentives for domestic saving and the production of export goods distort the mix of domestic industries and the allocation of resources, resulting in an economy that is less able to meet the needs of its own citizens in the longer term.

Essentially the biggest problem Asian export led economies have is that their Western customer let economies are imploding.

Edited October 24, 2009 by Abrak

[chiang mai]

I'm thinking of roses.

Why not just say what you have to say! and once again it's you that is doing the provoking, don't start crying foul if I continue to argue, and don't start accusing me of stalking if I am diligent about it!

But what exactly is there that is positive in my statement ?, I just don't agree with the doom mongering.

Some constructive advice, you and many posters get lost in the calculations and math. What you fail to see are the basic checks and balances of real life, eg, if the the baht were to accelerate the natural 'brake' would be the big drop in exports.

Because the UK and many others are in such big trouble, I suppose it's easy(ier) to overlook the fact that Thailand,fiscally balanced or not, is also embroiled too.

Ther is no nirvana in an economic depression!

As in everything is smelling like roses - actually, was making light of your two contradictory statements, both in the same post:

"It could be the baht is next in line as it seems to be at or near it's peak", and

"and 2 currencies where we might see an appreciation : Euro and Baht, so don't give up hope yet".

Difficult to understand what you mean here or indeed what you really think and any prevailing logic, if indeed any exists.

Addendum then : and 2 currencies where we might see an appreciation of the pound are the Euro and Baht; not that I don't think you were well aware of what was meant!

I'm afraid I had no idea what you were talking about and your latest reply sheds little light, unless you meant to say, "an appreciation against the Pound"?

However, that was before me learning about the even slower recovery of the UK economy, and I've a feeling that the printing presses will be even busier, and my worse case scenario of a sub 50 pound could happen assuming the baht continues to be ruinously high and there is every indication that it will be.

The problem for Thailand is that the economy has wonderful vital stats., so to speak, but as the value of the dollar continues to fall Thailand becomes even less competitive. If the baht were to gain in in strength by 20-35% as widely predicted on this thread, then surely there would be no price advantage in buying from Thailand. Wouldn't the US be better placed to produce at home and quite possibly regenerate Ummm, it already has, the question now is whether it will appreciate even further, presumably that was what you meant? it's own manuafacturing base in the process! Where would that leave Thailand, rather like a perfectly tuned and polished aircraft without any fuel, it would stall and that's what's happening isn't it?

As I've asked many times before, where is the demand for Thailand's exports going to come from? Yet another answer below:

"Thailand's exports are expected to return to growth of 4-5% year-on-year in the first half of next year as sentiment has recovered significantly, underlined by a sharp rise in purchase orders, notably from the United States and European Union in October, according to the Thai Chamber of Commerce.

"The sentiment is getting better from this month, as importers from the US and EU whose stocks are being depleted are increasing their purchases to prepare for the coming Christmas and New Year festivals," said Phongsak Assakul, a chamber vice-chairman".

Edited October 24, 2009 by chiang mai

[mommysboy]

CM. I can't make head or tale of your answer, but in any event I no longer think the Pound will appreciate against the baht for the foreseeable given yesterday's news.

If the baht continues to rise yet more against the dollar by 20-35% as predicted on this board, surely that would effect exports. It's inconceivable that US importers could/would pay those prices and almost certainly they would make their own parts or arrange some alternative. So assuming Thailand would lose the business, how would it make up exports?, and does it matter anyway?

Can anyone also tell me what happens if the UK 'goes bankrupt'?, as widely predicted. I mean we all know what happens to a person or a business, but a country? Can anyone kindly write a short piece in explanation.

Also what then happens to things like benefits, and pensions, and salaries. Also whenever an entity goes bankrupt, inevitably a big debt is written off and it's the creditor's that foot the bill, eg, Northern Rock shares, who would lose out when UK UK PLC goes bust!

[chiang mai]

CM. I can't make head or tale of your answer, but in any event I no longer think the Pound will appreciate against the baht for the foreseeable given yesterday's news.

If the baht continues to rise yet more against the dollar by 20-35% as predicted on this board, surely that would effect exports. It's inconceivable that US importers could/would pay those prices and almost certainly they would make their own parts or arrange some alternative. So assuming Thailand would lose the business, how would it make up exports?, and does it matter anyway?

Can anyone also tell me what happens if the UK 'goes bankrupt'?, as widely predicted. I mean we all know what happens to a person or a business, but a country? Can anyone kindly write a short piece in explanation.

Also what then happens to things like benefits, and pensions, and salaries. Also whenever an entity goes bankrupt, inevitably a big debt is written off and it's the creditor's that foot the bill, eg, Northern Rock shares, who would lose out when UK UK PLC goes bust!

What happens when a person goes bankrupt, they have to sell everything (more or less), cannot borrow again (except at poor lending rates) and their financial activities are governed by a set of rules that makes their ability to expand very constrained. Salaries: that would be down to the viability/profitability of individual businesses; Northern Rock/shares, sold presumably because that's an asset; Private pensions, see the first part of this answer since this involves private companies; State Pensions et al, hmmm. Other options involve the IMF as in the 1970's or to print more money and become a zimbabwee (doubtful because of the inflation aspect etc). Property; would become close to worthless.

But I'm not sure that things are at that stage yet so no real need to panic or get too concerned.

Edited October 24, 2009 by chiang mai

[lannarebirth]

I've got problems with the premise of the thread "The Baht's Strength Is Not What It Seems". I've got news for you, a currency's strength or weakness, or that of any other asset is always what it seems. Try telling the cashier that's converting your currency to baht that you'd like a different rate as "things aren't what they seem".

Edited October 24, 2009 by lannarebirth

[chiang mai]

Yes agreed of course - but the impact of a severely damaged currency is different depending on whether a person is spending Pounds or a foreign currency. For expats a bankruptcy of UK Plc would likely prove to be seriously bad news, if their holdings were in Pounds. But for UK residents it would be a different story, "the pound in your pocket" etc.

[Abrak]

I've got problems with the premise of the thread "The Baht's Strength Is Not What It Seems". I've got news for you, a currency's strength or weakness, or that of any other asset is always what it seems. Try telling the cashier that's converting your currency to baht that you'd like a different rate as "things aren't what they seem".

I believe there is some sense in that on a trade weighted basis the baht is still below where it was over 2 years ago in July 2007.

Edited October 24, 2009 by Abrak

[chiang mai]

As an aside, am I the only one that sees a significant US rally is on the cards?

[mommysboy]

CM. I can't make head or tale of your answer, but in any event I no longer think the Pound will appreciate against the baht for the foreseeable given yesterday's news.

If the baht continues to rise yet more against the dollar by 20-35% as predicted on this board, surely that would effect exports. It's inconceivable that US importers could/would pay those prices and almost certainly they would make their own parts or arrange some alternative. So assuming Thailand would lose the business, how would it make up exports?, and does it matter anyway?

Can anyone also tell me what happens if the UK 'goes bankrupt'?, as widely predicted. I mean we all know what happens to a person or a business, but a country? Can anyone kindly write a short piece in explanation.

Also what then happens to things like benefits, and pensions, and salaries. Also whenever an entity goes bankrupt, inevitably a big debt is written off and it's the creditor's that foot the bill, eg, Northern Rock shares, who would lose out when UK UK PLC goes bust!

What happens when a person goes bankrupt, they have to sell everything (more or less), cannot borrow again (except at poor lending rates) and their financial activities are governed by a set of rules that makes their ability to expand very constrained. Salaries: that would be down to the viability/profitability of individual businesses; Northern Rock/shares, sold presumably because that's an asset; Private pensions, see the first part of this answer since this involves private companies; State Pensions et al, hmmm. Other options involve the IMF as in the 1970's or to print more money and become a zimbabwee (doubtful because of the inflation aspect etc). Property; would become close to worthless.

But I'm not sure that things are at that stage yet so no real need to panic or get too concerned.

You haven't answered the main questions at all, and I already know what happens when an individual goes bust. Re-read if you will?

[chiang mai]

CM. I can't make head or tale of your answer, but in any event I no longer think the Pound will appreciate against the baht for the foreseeable given yesterday's news.

If the baht continues to rise yet more against the dollar by 20-35% as predicted on this board, surely that would effect exports. It's inconceivable that US importers could/would pay those prices and almost certainly they would make their own parts or arrange some alternative. So assuming Thailand would lose the business, how would it make up exports?, and does it matter anyway?

Can anyone also tell me what happens if the UK 'goes bankrupt'?, as widely predicted. I mean we all know what happens to a person or a business, but a country? Can anyone kindly write a short piece in explanation.

Also what then happens to things like benefits, and pensions, and salaries. Also whenever an entity goes bankrupt, inevitably a big debt is written off and it's the creditor's that foot the bill, eg, Northern Rock shares, who would lose out when UK UK PLC goes bust!

What happens when a person goes bankrupt, they have to sell everything (more or less), cannot borrow again (except at poor lending rates) and their financial activities are governed by a set of rules that makes their ability to expand very constrained. Salaries: that would be down to the viability/profitability of individual businesses; Northern Rock/shares, sold presumably because that's an asset; Private pensions, see the first part of this answer since this involves private companies; State Pensions et al, hmmm. Other options involve the IMF as in the 1970's or to print more money and become a zimbabwee (doubtful because of the inflation aspect etc). Property; would become close to worthless.

But I'm not sure that things are at that stage yet so no real need to panic or get too concerned.

You haven't answered the main questions at all, and I already know what happens when an individual goes bust. Re-read if you will?

The answer remains exactly the same, it's the same for a country as it is for a person, or could you not see that simple analogy!

[mommysboy]

CM. I can't make head or tale of your answer, but in any event I no longer think the Pound will appreciate against the baht for the foreseeable given yesterday's news.

If the baht continues to rise yet more against the dollar by 20-35% as predicted on this board, surely that would effect exports. It's inconceivable that US importers could/would pay those prices and almost certainly they would make their own parts or arrange some alternative. So assuming Thailand would lose the business, how would it make up exports?, and does it matter anyway?

Can anyone also tell me what happens if the UK 'goes bankrupt'?, as widely predicted. I mean we all know what happens to a person or a business, but a country? Can anyone kindly write a short piece in explanation.

Also what then happens to things like benefits, and pensions, and salaries. Also whenever an entity goes bankrupt, inevitably a big debt is written off and it's the creditor's that foot the bill, eg, Northern Rock shares, who would lose out when UK UK PLC goes bust!

What happens when a person goes bankrupt, they have to sell everything (more or less), cannot borrow again (except at poor lending rates) and their financial activities are governed by a set of rules that makes their ability to expand very constrained. Salaries: that would be down to the viability/profitability of individual businesses; Northern Rock/shares, sold presumably because that's an asset; Private pensions, see the first part of this answer since this involves private companies; State Pensions et al, hmmm. Other options involve the IMF as in the 1970's or to print more money and become a zimbabwee (doubtful because of the inflation aspect etc). Property; would become close to worthless.

But I'm not sure that things are at that stage yet so no real need to panic or get too concerned.

You haven't answered the main questions at all, and I already know what happens when an individual goes bust. Re-read if you will?

The answer remains exactly the same, it's the same for a country as it is for a person, or could you not see that simple analogy!

Obviously no I couldn't! so the country will be shuttered, all property sold off, or the population be asked to leave, and no one will be allowed any other personal items than those deemed necessary in pursuant of trade or reasonable lifestyle? Hmm, not sure how that would work.

If you don't know just say so, nor do I, I just wondered that's all.

But even then the question was secondary to the first one, namely if the baht rises 20-35% against the dollar as widely predicted how will this effect Thai exports, and does it matter anyway?

[Abrak]

But even then the question was secondary to the first one, namely if the baht rises 20-35% against the dollar as widely predicted how will this effect Thai exports, and does it matter anyway?

You keep repeating this. It obviously depends on the price elasticity of demand for your exports but normally they would fall or grow at a much slower pace but that is the whole point. Countries running 9% of GDP current account surpluses are supposed to see their currencies appreciate and usually do unless they keep them deliberately undervalued and this will resolve global trade imbalances. The extent of Thailand's surplus just shows that it has foregone consumption for saving (hence understated short term growth) just like the size of the US current account deficit showed they had foregone saving for consumption (hence overstating short term growth).

[mommysboy]

But even then the question was secondary to the first one, namely if the baht rises 20-35% against the dollar as widely predicted how will this effect Thai exports, and does it matter anyway?

You keep repeating this. It obviously depends on the price elasticity of demand for your exports but normally they would fall or grow at a much slower pace but that is the whole point. Countries running 9% of GDP current account surpluses are supposed to see their currencies appreciate and usually do unless they keep them deliberately undervalued and this will resolve global trade imbalances. The extent of Thailand's surplus just shows that it has foregone consumption for saving (hence understated short term growth) just like the size of the US current account deficit showed they had foregone saving for consumption (hence overstating short term growth).

I see your point and Thailand is fiscally well balanced as we've acknowledged at length. Without really knowing, I'd guess the goods Thailand produces are highly elastic in demand, and that an appreciation of it's currency would have quite significant ramifications. Is a 3.5% contraction in GDP ok I wonder ?, on the one hand GDP is just turnover really and I remember the old adage 'turnover is vanity profit is sanity' but I would have thought that an export based economy can't afford to drag for too long. Surely what we're seeing is profits being bagged up from previous years, which is laudible, but it does strike me Thailand could be in for an awful export slump, all the more so if its currency were to reach 28bt. I really don't know and am just asking as a novice.

Thailand foregoing consumption for saving- in all honesty why is this? I mean just look at the infrastructure! No reinvestment at all. No progressive health service. It's difficult to believe this is the 25th wealthiest nation, probably higher now. And they call the farangs stingy!!! Even now the Govt seems so be spending just minor amounts realatively.

By the way do you know what happens if a country goes bankrupt ?, I'm trying to find out.

[mommysboy]

As an aside, am I the only one that sees a significant US rally is on the cards?

Yes you are.

And, what's more, that goes against everything you've predicted.

And further, you seem to make it up as you go along.

[mommysboy]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...wn-in-2010.html

Check it out.

Again I ask all those who champion Thailand and strong Asian growth, where is the demand?

And if China can't do it despite spending, what on earth makes you think an uncompetitive, reluctant spender like Thailand can?

The Asian economies are generally based on supply, they don't seem to be able to support themselves, or at least not at the rate of growth seemingly needed. I don't understand why they can't support themselves. Look at Thailnd, it's a wealthy country, but just look around ? and why does any major project seem to involve a major benefactor?

TRhere's something deeply wrong somewhere, maybe it's the corruption!

[Abrak]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...wn-in-2010.html

Check it out.

Again I ask all those who champion Thailand and strong Asian growth, where is the demand?

And if China can't do it despite spending, what on earth makes you think an uncompetitive, reluctant spender like Thailand can?

The Asian economies are generally based on supply, they don't seem to be able to support themselves, or at least not at the rate of growth seemingly needed. I don't understand why they can't support themselves. Look at Thailnd, it's a wealthy country, but just look around ? and why does any major project seem to involve a major benefactor?

TRhere's something deeply wrong somewhere, maybe it's the corruption!

mommysboy,

I am not one to champion strong Asian growth but they can support themselves. Thailand has a twin surplus of 5% of GDP and its GDP is declining 3.5%, if it spent its surplus there would have been some slight growth. Its just a matter of comparison isnt it really - the US and US have twin deficits of 15% of GDP, they are borrowing massively, and still their GDP is declining. So at the moment it is really a choice between a country that can self finance without decline if it so chooses (but didnt) or one that unavoidably had to inccur massive indebtedness in order to avoid depression. Of course Thailand could have had a 12% budget deficit especially considering its current account surplus and 5% growth but it was probably wise not to.

And where would the demand have come from? Well considering that it has a 9% current account surplus we know it has massive external demand relative to internal demand. So of course a large fiscal stimulus would have boosted internal demand towards levels commensurate with demand somewhere near what it is seeing externally. The size of the C/A surplus in many ways points to the fact that domestic demand is well short of its natural level.

By Definition Asian Current Surpluses Mean That Asian Savings Rates Are Exceeding Consumption Rates. Just As The US Current Account Deficit Means That US Consumption Is Exceeding Saving. So When You Ask Where The The Demand Will Come From The Most Obvious Answer Is That Asian Economies With Excessively High Savings Rates In The Past Used To Invest In Export Industries To Feed US Consumption Will Now Reduce That Saving And Consume More. Similarly US Consumers Spend Less And Save More. This Is How Things Balance. obviously exchange rate adjustments would facilitate the process.

[Boon Mee]

As an aside, am I the only one that sees a significant US rally is on the cards?

Yes you are.

Agree.

All FX traders that I am aware of are going long (against the USD) on the EUR for the next three months.

[lannarebirth]

As an aside, am I the only one that sees a significant US rally is on the cards?

Yes you are.

Agree.

All FX traders that I am aware of are going long (against the USD) on the EUR for the next three months.

$USD in a nutshell:

http://decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/091023_tp.html