Baht's Strength Is Not What It Seems

[chiang mai]

As an aside, am I the only one that sees a significant US rally is on the cards?

Yes you are.

Apparently not: "All FX traders that I am aware of are going long (against the USD) on the EUR for the next three months". In case you are not aware the term "long" means that traders are betting the currency will strengthen.

And, what's more, that goes against everything you've predicted.

Whilst I am on record as having said that I think 35 Baht to the Pound is likely within ten years, I have not said what I think might happen between now and then, so rallies and falls will take place and no, that is not against anything I have predicted at all, it's all a part of the daily/weekly/monthly process.

And further, you seem to make it up as you go along.

It's a conspiracy, only done to confuse you further, if that's possible.

Edited October 26, 2009 by chiang mai

[mommysboy]

As an aside, am I the only one that sees a significant US rally is on the cards?

Yes you are.

Apparently not: "All FX traders that I am aware of are going long (against the USD) on the EUR for the next three months". In case you are not aware the term "long" means that traders are betting the currency will strengthen.

And, what's more, that goes against everything you've predicted.

Whilst I am on record as having said that I think 35 Baht to the Pound is likely within ten years, I have not said what I think might happen between now and then, so rallies and falls will take place and no, that is not against anything I have predicted at all, it's all a part of the daily/weekly/monthly process.

And further, you seem to make it up as you go along.

How could you possible tell, you seem not to have the capacity ability or desire to understand even the simplest aspect of these debates.

I do my best to understand extreme, minority views and agree that this is a real learning curve, and thanks for the info. on bankruptcy. I've never doubted your knowledge and numbers as such, it just gets subverted by your pet theories, and rather amazing oversights at times. I must admit personally I don't understand much of what is going on, but much of what is presented seems to be wrong too.

You said US not the dollar, that is clear enough! and most FX traders I know is hardly much evidence at all.

I have the power of critical analysis and it is clear that your parameters are so vague that you just chop and change at will. It's perfectly possible that having just realised how dependent your favoured country is on the US (aren't they all), you miraculously invent a recovery in your own mind. Voila!

[chiang mai]

As an aside, am I the only one that sees a significant US rally is on the cards?

Yes you are.

Apparently not: "All FX traders that I am aware of are going long (against the USD) on the EUR for the next three months". In case you are not aware the term "long" means that traders are betting the currency will strengthen.

And, what's more, that goes against everything you've predicted.

Whilst I am on record as having said that I think 35 Baht to the Pound is likely within ten years, I have not said what I think might happen between now and then, so rallies and falls will take place and no, that is not against anything I have predicted at all, it's all a part of the daily/weekly/monthly process.

And further, you seem to make it up as you go along.

How could you possible tell, you seem not to have the capacity ability or desire to understand even the simplest aspect of these debates.

I do my best to understand extreme, minority views and agree that this is a real learning curve, and thanks for the info. on bankruptcy. I've never doubted your knowledge and numbers as such, it just gets subverted by your pet theories, and rather amazing oversights at times. I must admit personally I don't understand much of what is going on, but much of what is presented seems to be wrong too.

You said US not the dollar, that is clear enough! and most FX traders I know is hardly much evidence at all.

I have the power of critical analysis and it is clear that your parameters are so vague that you just chop and change at will. It's perfectly possible that having just realised how dependent your favoured country is on the US (aren't they all), you miraculously invent a recovery in your own mind. Voila!

You're a laugh a minute, a waste of time but funny nevertheless.

[mommysboy]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...wn-in-2010.html

Check it out.

Again I ask all those who champion Thailand and strong Asian growth, where is the demand?

And if China can't do it despite spending, what on earth makes you think an uncompetitive, reluctant spender like Thailand can?

The Asian economies are generally based on supply, they don't seem to be able to support themselves, or at least not at the rate of growth seemingly needed. I don't understand why they can't support themselves. Look at Thailnd, it's a wealthy country, but just look around ? and why does any major project seem to involve a major benefactor?

TRhere's something deeply wrong somewhere, maybe it's the corruption!

mommysboy,

I am not one to champion strong Asian growth but they can support themselves. Thailand has a twin surplus of 5% of GDP and its GDP is declining 3.5%, if it spent its surplus there would have been some slight growth. Its just a matter of comparison isnt it really - the US and US have twin deficits of 15% of GDP, they are borrowing massively, and still their GDP is declining. So at the moment it is really a choice between a country that can self finance without decline if it so chooses (but didnt) or one that unavoidably had to inccur massive indebtedness in order to avoid depression. Of course Thailand could have had a 12% budget deficit especially considering its current account surplus and 5% growth but it was probably wise not to.

And where would the demand have come from? Well considering that it has a 9% current account surplus we know it has massive external demand relative to internal demand. So of course a large fiscal stimulus would have boosted internal demand towards levels commensurate with demand somewhere near what it is seeing externally. The size of the C/A surplus in many ways points to the fact that domestic demand is well short of its natural level.

By Definition Asian Current Surpluses Mean That Asian Savings Rates Are Exceeding Consumption Rates. Just As The US Current Account Deficit Means That US Consumption Is Exceeding Saving. So When You Ask Where The The Demand Will Come From The Most Obvious Answer Is That Asian Economies With Excessively High Savings Rates In The Past Used To Invest In Export Industries To Feed US Consumption Will Now Reduce That Saving And Consume More. Similarly US Consumers Spend Less And Save More. This Is How Things Balance. obviously exchange rate adjustments would facilitate the process.

And the future? You keep going on about this 9% current surplus as if it is a never ending bottle of beer!

I'm beginning to learn that most economies have the power to support themselves for a while at least. Then I guess it's about growth and that most likely would need to come from outside. I guess less turnover does not mean less profit, but it certainly would mean less work for the population. A modern economy must have the money sloshing around and people in work. No doubt about it Thailand is an export led economy, and these economies seem very hard pressed.

There is no compelling argument to suggest Thai domestic growth is anything but subdued through lack of the ability to spend. Thai household debt has doubled in 10 years and it was clear Thailand had problems before the crash!

The obvious policy would be to spend on infrastructure to bring Thailand up to an acceptable level, it really is in a state. That's not suggestive of a country so wealthy and back to my main point, this country is hamstrung by some big problem, if it's not debt, then it must be something within.

[mommysboy]

CM: Then it's agreed we never discuss again, boring for others too and a headache for mods I'd guess.

[chiang mai]

CM: Then it's agreed we never discuss again, boring for others too and a headache for mods I'd guess.

I'm deliriously happy that we have no further debates between us on this subject but that does not mean I will not correct/challenge key statements that are known to be totally inaccurate - that's a black and white thing though that should not lead to debate, a fact is a fact or it's not.

[chiang mai]

CM: Then it's agreed we never discuss again, boring for others too and a headache for mods I'd guess.

I'm deliriously happy that we have no further debates between us on this subject but that does not mean I will not correct/challenge key statements that are known to be totally inaccurate - that's a black and white thing though that should not lead to debate, a fact is a fact or it's not.

[Abrak]

Mommysboy, I deliberately spelt the last paragraph out with each word beginning with a capital letter so that you wouldnt need to 'guess' where the growth came from and if you did 'guess' you would at least guess the right place. But even this seemed to have defeated you. I give up.

[mommysboy]

Mommysboy, I deliberately spelt the last paragraph out with each word beginning with a capital letter so that you wouldnt need to 'guess' where the growth came from and if you did 'guess' you would at least guess the right place. But even this seemed to have defeated you. I give up.

I'm not doubting the text book you perfect fool, but I feel there is something missing here. Ok sorry you feel that way I won't discuss with you again. As it happens my business is picking up so and most of that is from UK, oddly enough! I'll stick with reality.