General Anupong Rules Out Coup Next Year

[webfact]

General Anupong rules out coup next year

Army Commander-in-Chief Gen Anupong Paochinda Sunday ruled out coup next year.

He said he expected no bloodshed and violence in the new year.

"And the military will definitely not stage a coup," Anupong said.

He said he hopes the next Army chief, who will succeed him in ten months, will ensure that all soldiers will love the nation, religion and the monarchy.

-- The Nation 2009/12/27

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[animatic]

Stock end of year announcement.

Calm the populace, and give a sense of continuity.

Same same.

[gorshar]

What? They schedule these things now...?

[Oberkommando]

Why would they stage a coup when they are in almost absolute control?

[wpcoe]

Hmmm. Ruling out a coup next year, still leaves open the opportunity to stage a coup before 2009 closes out...

[jamesjdaly]

General Anupong rules out coup next year

That's nice of him!

[Credo]

They need to keep in shape, so maybe have one just for practice.

[jontom]

They need to keep in shape, so maybe have one just for practice.

Thanks very much, we didnt really fancy a coup, by the way I have no plans to stage one either.

[baht&sold]

With the recent signing up of a legion of old Generals to Mr Thaksin's Puea Thai party (led by a dusted-off General and whose chief adviser is yet another) and with 76 billion in the docket, best keep one's eyes on any news regarding the Thaksin clan going on another 'emergency' overseas shopping trip (as happened pror to black Songkhran)

[NCFC]

With the recent signing up of a legion of old Generals to Mr Thaksin's Puea Thai party (led by a dusted-off General and whose chief adviser is yet another) and with 76 billion in the docket, best keep one's eyes on any news regarding the Thaksin clan going on another 'emergency' overseas shopping trip (as happened pror to black Songkhran)

Sorry but I don't think this thread is about Mr. Thaksin, why do you need to change the subject?

[baht&sold]

With the recent signing up of a legion of old Generals to Mr Thaksin's Puea Thai party (led by a dusted-off General and whose chief adviser is yet another) and with 76 billion in the docket, best keep one's eyes on any news regarding the Thaksin clan going on another 'emergency' overseas shopping trip (as happened pror to black Songkhran)

Sorry but I don't think this thread is about Mr. Thaksin, why do you need to change the subject?

Sorry, thought it was obvious (and inherently related).

To summarise:

There won't be a coup next year but there will likely be another 'attempt' at one, or rather a 're-coup' attempt.

However, first one must ensure the strategic, opportunist, loyalty count is one's favour to tip the balance.

We all good here then?

Edit to add: 'sorry'

Edited December 27, 2009 by baht&sold

[animatic]

Actually the threat of a coup is from the Thaksin General's side

and not from the currently in power group of generals.

Anupong is basically saying :

'we know who they are and we are watching them closely."

[Publicus]

Actually the threat of a coup is from the Thaksin General's side

and not from the currently in power group of generals.

Anupong is basically saying :

'we know who they are and we are watching them closely."

Exactly.  

I think few at this point would dispute that "the" military is in fact 350,000 or so soldiers, sailors, air personnel in uniform and under the flag  but subdivided sociopolitically into competing camps. 

One camp consists of traditional loyalists, another follows the money especially closely and other camps range from the indifferent to the weathermen who watch which way the wind blows.

I think  it could be helpful if the various units that comprise the military each wore a colored armband so that those of us not on the inside could get a better picture of how the military self aligns.   

Anyway, what otherwise could easily be viewed as a silly statement is in fact the statement that we can be certain the military is under control by someone, in this instance Anupong, that for at least the next ten months he and his commanders have their eye on the ball and that they expect to be choosing the 'right' commanders for the longer term future.

In short it's a direct message to one camp that there will be winners and losers.

[peecee]

With the recent signing up of a legion of old Generals to Mr Thaksin's Puea Thai party (led by a dusted-off General and whose chief adviser is yet another) and with 76 billion in the docket, best keep one's eyes on any news regarding the Thaksin clan going on another 'emergency' overseas shopping trip (as happened pror to black Songkhran)

Sorry but I don't think this thread is about Mr. Thaksin, why do you need to change the subject?

Sorry, thought it was obvious (and inherently related).

To summarise:

There won't be a coup next year but there will likely be another 'attempt' at one, or rather a 're-coup' attempt.

However, first one must ensure the strategic, opportunist, loyalty count is one's favour to tip the balance.

We all good here then?

Edit to add: 'sorry'

The unwritten TV rule is that the former PM must be mentioned by the 10th post of any topic, isn't it?

[Thai at Heart]

Well thanks to the reporter for asking the dumbest question of the year.

What did he expect the answer to be?

[virtualtraveller]

Like I hinted in another post;

1. Elections in 2010, Puea Thai wins, but coalition govt members refuse to support any parliamentary means to whitewash Thaksin.

2. Only remaining option; tear up the 2007 charter, therefore: plan a 'soft coup'

3. Govt meekly rolls aside as army loyal to Thaksin pull off a neo-coup, re-installing 1997 coup and immediately calling a fresh election with 30 days

It's not that far fetched in Thai politics, think about it? And Anupong is second guessing Thaksin on this one. Afterall, if you have get away with one coup, then you can get away with another!

Thailand becomes the laughing stock of...

[apetley]

'He said he hopes the next Army chief, who will succeed him in ten months, will ensure that all soldiers will love the nation, religion and the monarchy.'

Wonder why he omitted 'and respect democracy'?

[mrtoad]

What? They schedule these things now...?

They might as well, these statements have been as regular as QE II's address to The Commonwealth in recent years.

[jayboy]

I think few at this point would dispute that "the" military is in fact 350,000 or so soldiers, sailors, air personnel in uniform and under the flag but subdivided sociopolitically into competing camps.

One camp consists of traditional loyalists, another follows the money especially closely and other camps range from the indifferent to the weathermen who watch which way the wind blows.

While I agree the military is divided I would suggest that what actually drives the so called traditional loyalists is in fact the prospect of their snouts being dislodged from the money trough (or having to share it) with other questing snouts.

[Steve2UK]

I think few at this point would dispute that "the" military is in fact 350,000 or so soldiers, sailors, air personnel in uniform and under the flag but subdivided sociopolitically into competing camps.

One camp consists of traditional loyalists, another follows the money especially closely and other camps range from the indifferent to the weathermen who watch which way the wind blows.

While I agree the military is divided I would suggest that what actually drives the so called traditional loyalists is in fact the prospect of their snouts being dislodged from the money trough (or having to share it) with other questing snouts.

I think the same drive for self-advancement up the pecking order for the usual motive (inherent in any hierarchy) as well as for the prospect of a growing slice of the pie is common to all "camps" in the Thai military - the so-called traditional loyalists are certainly not immune to it. In common with various camps in most countries, some will have more right-wing/authoritarian leanings and some more liberal/democratic leanings. I'd like to see any evidence of "sociopolitical" orientation having any bearing on the degree to which any of the camps "follows the money" - thus far I've seen none. That said, according to research by Pasuk Phongphaichit and Sungsidh Piriyarangsan published in "Corruption & Democracy in Thailand" (1996), military governments here have been significantly more corrupt than civilian ones - though I stress it's a matter of degree.

[baht&sold]

UPDATE:

From today's Bkk Post:

"Panlop confirms to lead anti-govt rally"

(that would be Puea Thai's General Panlop, former deputy director of the Internal Security Operations Command;)

Also, Google:

"Thaksin counts the minutes to his B76bn fortune"

('all-out' red rally led by Puea Thai's General Panlop before early February "when the people would be ready to fight for democracy"...)

Yes, a re-coup 'attempt' is coming, to re-coup Mr Thaksin's er, fortunes... and there appears to be no shortage of old opportunistic soldiers o' fortune willing to share in the havoc and hoped for spoils.

('best before' date? before the now revised mid-Feb final B76bn verdict, conveniently).

Tic Toc.

Edited December 28, 2009 by baht&sold

[TAWP]

some will have more right-wing/authoritarian leanings and some more liberal/democratic leanings

I would just like to point out that any equation where you put right-wing and authoritarian on one side and liberal (left wing?) and democratic on the other is going to be inheritable flawed and down right incorrect.

Right and left-wing are economical stances, authoritarian and libertarian are opposites in the other axis of the political chart.

A great deal many left-wing governments have been very authoritarian throughout our current and past history.

[bkkjames]

some will have more right-wing/authoritarian leanings and some more liberal/democratic leanings

I would just like to point out that any equation where you put right-wing and authoritarian on one side and liberal (left wing?) and democratic on the other is going to be inheritable flawed and down right incorrect.

Right and left-wing are economical stances, authoritarian and libertarian are opposites in the other axis of the political chart.

A great deal many left-wing governments have been very authoritarian throughout our current and past history.

Stalin? Castro? The Guy in Venezuela ?

[Oberkommando]

Thaksin's side having a coup?

Wouldn't succeed anyway, without approval. They never have, over the course of history.

[baht&sold]

Thaksin's side having a coup?

Wouldn't succeed anyway, without approval. They never have, over the course of history.

But try they will, try the must.

Tough spot for 'the victim' Mr Thaksin, self-saddled with several troublesome red-herrings:

*Can't win a majority if an election were called (without the nefarious Newin/Bhumjai faction).

Thus Mr Thaksin's current proxy-party would be out on the first house floor vote (and he knows it).

*Can't keep claiming it's 'THE' military who are the baddies as they dust off legions of old Generals to join Puea Thai.

*Can't claim the red-shirts are a 'people's movement which he can't control' as they're led by his Puea Thai Generals and MP's.

*Can't change the constitution without a referendum- to get rid of 'pesky' vote-fraud rules, exonerate all corruption charges and therefore 76 billion (and a chance to double-up;)

*Can't be an effective opposition 'for the people' as everything they do revolves around Mr Thaksin's needs, not the people's.

Meanwhile, the clock on the final Feb court verdict is ticking, LOUD.

'Poor' Mr Thaksin, what a conundrum with few options left (except, attempt a re-coup)

You know, to 'restore democracy'...

[Steve2UK]

some will have more right-wing/authoritarian leanings and some more liberal/democratic leanings

I would just like to point out that any equation where you put right-wing and authoritarian on one side and liberal (left wing?) and democratic on the other is going to be inheritable flawed and down right incorrect.

Right and left-wing are economical stances, authoritarian and libertarian are opposites in the other axis of the political chart.

A great deal many left-wing governments have been very authoritarian throughout our current and past history.

Stalin? Castro? The Guy in Venezuela ?

Point taken chaps (and one considered when I wrote what I did) when one compares regimes past and present outside Thailand........ but the "some" in the extracted quote refers to "'camps' in the Thai military" in the preceding sentence. I could/should have made that more explicit. Castro and Chavez certainly qualify as authoritarians in my book; likewise Stalin - but I wouldn't group him with the others; why I wouldn't is a whole other (off-) topic.....

TAWP - if I meant "left-wing" rather than "liberal" I would have said it. Also, I only mentioned two "sides" (your term, not mine) - IMO there are plainly more flavours than that.

[Crushdepth]

Everytime someone says 'there will be no coup' it just fuels further speculation. And if there was going to be a coup obviously they wouldn't admit it. So why don't they just shut up?

[toptuan]

Could you imagine the Army Chief of Staff in the USA calmly announcing this for the new year? He'd be sacked before the New Year arrived! Such is the power and influence of this country's military. Rather arrogant and brazen.

[jontom]

Could you imagine the Army Chief of Staff in the USA calmly announcing this for the new year? He'd be sacked before the New Year arrived! Such is the power and influence of this country's military. Rather arrogant and brazen.

Quite, would someone remind General Anupong who pays his salary and who works for who, I think he seems to have forgotten.

[mca]

I feel the good General knows exactly who works for who.