All-out Attempt By Red Shirts To Bring Down Government

[webfact]

Threat of total chaos

By THE NATION

Published on January 2, 2010

Suthep expects all-out attempt by red shirts to bring down government in the first two months of the year

Coalition figures expect another difficult year for the government, with the opposition movement likely to renew its violent bid to bring down the administration in the first couple of months.

Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban said red-shirt protesters would engage in "street politics" in late January or early February aimed at overthrowing the national leadership and plunging the Kingdom into "complete chaos" in the process.

Suthep, who is in charge of security affairs, said chaos would likely occur but added he was not committed to invoking the Internal Security Act just yet.

He will apply the law if the situation warrants it.

He insisted the red shirts' plan went "beyond overthrowing the government".

"Let me confirm the information stated did not come from my imagination, but rather from evidence, from operators working for people like [singer] Arisman Pongruengrong and [Pheu Thai MP] Jatuporn Promphan, plus other reports we've received," said Suthep, who is also Democrat Party secretary-general.

He declined to elaborate what he specifically meant by his remarks about changing the national leadership.

"You can believe that these people will dedicate themselves to following orders and thus proceed using various means. Nevertheless, if an incident does occur, I'll try my best to diffuse the situation, in order to prevent any bruises to the country, and I'll keep the public informed."

The deputy premier said pressure would be applied from both inside and outside Parliament, as well as inside and outside the Kingdom. However, he remains confident any impending political chaos can be handled sufficiently.

Fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra is aiming high to "change the national leadership", said Suthep, but he will not be able to achieve this, because most Thais do not want it to happen.

"I don't think it will materialise. Let me reiterate this is not a provocation, but rather my confidence speaking. People will not oppose my views, because most do not endorse violence."

Suthep said the timing of major street protests might be related to the superstitious beliefs of the red-shirt leaders.

He said the government was willing to negotiate with Thaksin but only in accordance with the law and that foreign leaders would not allow themselves to be "used" by Thaksin like Cambodian President Hun Sen had.

"In fact, many have told me Thaksin has gone too far," Suthep said.

Chuan Leekpai, chairman of the Democrat Party's advisory board, expressed similar views. He urged protesters to remain peaceful and warned violence would be met with the law.

"If we manage to steer past this, Thai democracy will be strong," he said.

Chuan said he believed Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva could handle the situation and defended him from criticism of being a "political novice".

Abhisit yesterday said his government was firm in its resolve to lead the country to peace and reconciliation through justice.

"I am confident that if the majority of society contributes, we will see better prospects for our country," he said.

"But if we allow our country to become mired in violence, our society and politics will be in chaos."

Meanwhile, Bhum Jai Thai Party spokesman Supachai Jaisamut said the growing number of military |personnel joining the Pheu Thai Party signalled the coming of a "people's war", but he expressed confidence in the government's ability to handle it.

"The red shirts' strength is not increasing, and the people understand the situation, especially those in the middle who choose not to belong to any [political] colour and wish to see national reconciliation and economic growth," he said.

PM's Office Minister Satit Wongnongtaey said he would give the public more news and information "proactively", in order to prevent "senseless red-shirt propaganda" from triumphing.

-- The Nation 2010/1/2

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[londonthai]

notning can be done by the negotiating table, so myself will be watching for an alternative airport to leave the country - hope that thai airways will be flying whatever political situation is

[animatic]

Nothing unexpected here, Thaksin's money is on the line

and he has few options besides try and bring down the government.

Suthep's job is to prevent that happening.

But the Red Shirts have left far too many, not on their payroll,

totally disillusioned with their act, and that won't change no matter what attempts

at causing incidents they may or may not succeed at. The average Thai Somachai,

doesn't want trouble, just to get on with their lives and get a better shake while doing that.

Street riots don't help anyones bottom line, left right or center.

[Credo]

It's been pretty much total chaos for quite a while. I sure hope they don't plan on attacking the crown jewel of Thailand--Bangkok! That just can't happen. It's the only place that counts.

[brahmburgers]

Let's put it in perspective, the OP is based on a man's opinion. It's speculation not news. It's not much different than a Thai general (in T's camp) stating 2 days earlier that crap would hit the fan in April. So we have one big shot saying it's all going to happen in April, and another big shot saying it's all going to happen in January and February. Who to believe? Answer: neither, and here's why:

The Reds are a like an angry dog being wagged by its tail. Its tail is the ragtag thugs making noise in city streets, and those thugs haven't been doing much more in the past 8 months than, well.... making noise and rattling sticks in some city streets.

Is that a threat to Thailand? No.

Incidentally, the term 'all-out' indicates a last ditch effort. Let's hope whatever mayhem the fizzled out Reds can cause will really be their last attempt. Afterwards, they'll get no further money from the puppet master, and may put down their rice wine bottles and come and join in a national dialog on how best to address Thailand's challenges. ...or simple go back to working their rice fields and mom & pop stores.

Perhaps some former Reds will campaign for public office, perhaps some will put their energies towards alternative energy and cleaning up the environment. Yet others may instigate a system of animal shelters for Thailand's tens of millions of stray dogs. Yet others may put together a program for putting litter in trash cans after concerts, or start to clean up some of Thailand's trashed beaches and diminishing coral reefs.

Granted, it's more fun to prance around on city streets wearing a red shirt and shouting 'down with government,' but those folks will have to grow up someday - hopefully sooner than later.

[Artisi]

The government need to keep their cool but be very precise and meaningful in their response to any trouble making, no mamby pamby weasil words or actions just hit the ring leaders so hard they won't know what what day of the weak it is. They (the government) need to put a stop to this ongoing agitation at the behest of a runaway criminal solely with self-interest at heart.

[mca]

It's been pretty much total chaos for quite a while. I sure hope they don't plan on attacking the crown jewel of Thailand--Bangkok! That just can't happen. It's the only place that counts.

As Credo alienates about 50 million people.

[jackr]

I sure hope they don't plan on attacking the crown jewel of Thailand--Bangkok! That just can't happen. It's the only place that counts.

Well lets hope if it does kick off there, it stays there and doesn't affect the more discerning places of Muang Thai. As for the "only place that counts"

[RustyYellowDodge]

I think that when the is over (when the courts rule to seize the money taken from Thaksin), then we will see a sharp decline in this kind of activity. When the government survivies this period, which I believe they will, they will have gained a great deal in the eyes of most Thai people. If that follows with some sort of constitutional ammendments and then elections by years end, dont' discount the possibility of the current coalition returning to power, with the current PM as well. Would like to see a few 'cabinet transfers" in the upcoming reshuffle. The commerce minister, depty health, etc. to name a few.

[givenall]

notning can be done by the negotiating table, so myself will be watching for an alternative airport to leave the country - hope that thai airways will be flying whatever political situation is

I think the Thaksin followers have lost a lot of steams and they are just barking themselves to no existence.

I wish they would give the final blow to Thaksin by taking his money. This will surly change everything and let Thaksin know this the end game and he go <deleted>…. himself

[surin]

Let the Red-Shirts demonstrate...The army Generals will be prepared and it will be the army that causes chaos.

[virtualtraveller]

When Thaksin's money is finally taken away (which I believe Thaksin and everyone else sees as a foregone conclusion) then he'll go for broke. He know's the govt is on shakey grounds, he and his reds (like many Thais) have a false sense of ambition, and think they can turn the country into a state of anarchy.

The only way they can win is if the govt screws up in dealing with the situation. This could well happen if the police (who are generally red sympathisers ) bungle the law and order. Let there be a repeat of April riots, where the city gets trashed and the army has to be brought it, the reds lose more credibility, the army are seen as a necessary saviour, and the vast majority who are in the middle of all this see how devastating it is for Thailand, trying to save Thaksin's ass.

The govt will gain cred by surviving this, if they plan well. This warning from Suthep is not idle chatter, I'm quite sure it's based on accurate intelligence, afterall the red's plans are hardly a secret, and army are probably keeping a very tight eye on this lot because they're going to have to clean up the mess. In any case, if the reds fail to bring down this govt it will still demonstrate to the country the urgent need for a new election (preferably before the change of guard in the army during the annual retirements in Sept). An 'unfriendly' army is the one effective thing getting in Thaksin's way for making a comeback. Ultimately, his last gasp option is to tear up the 2008 constitution, and for that he needs a coup.

Another scenario, is that Thaksin will create this chaos and hurt the country as a bargaining tool for his assets. Behind the scenes it might strengthen his hand in negotiating for some or all of it to be given back, but of course this isn't going to happen if he's going to use it all to finance vote and loyalty buying, so we're all stuck between a rock and hard place.

Sigh! This could all be so much easier if Takki had the good grace to realise he blew it and to retire quietly in Cambodia with his billions.

Edited January 2, 2010 by virtualtraveller

[Thai at Heart]

It's been pretty much total chaos for quite a while. I sure hope they don't plan on attacking the crown jewel of Thailand--Bangkok! That just can't happen. It's the only place that counts.

As Credo alienates about 50 million people.

And what a jewel it is!!!

In many ways, I wish if global warming exists, it would get on and happen a bit quicker so that half of Bangkok can go underwater and they will have to build a much nicer and more practical capital city somewhere else. The only thing that keeps Bangkok at the top of anyone's mind as a place to live or do business is the delusion of those brought up and living there. Crown Jewel of Thailand; Bangkok? Don't make me laugh.

What an absolute dump. I am amazed that the legislators haven't worked this out too and voted themselves the chance to move the parliament and all the govt offices as far away from the place as possible.

Believe it or not, there is electricity and even the odd car or too in towns beyond Saraburi these days.

Edited January 2, 2010 by Thai at Heart

[LaoPo]

Threat of total chaos....

Really?

Where and when did we hear such messages before?

I would rather prefer the Government work their @rses off to publish some good and positive news for a change and make the population happy instead of all this "rumor" news.

Can anybody name 10 Headlines by The Nation, or any other news source, whereby good news is/was published by the Government in the past 6 months...hmmm....make that a year.

Just 10

LaoPo

[ChiangMaiFun]

notning can be done by the negotiating table, so myself will be watching for an alternative airport to leave the country - hope that thai airways will be flying whatever political situation is

I think the Thaksin followers have lost a lot of steams and they are just barking themselves to no existence.

I wish they would give the final blow to Thaksin by taking his money. This will surly change everything and let Thaksin know this the end game and he go <deleted>…. himself

'he go... <deleted>... himself' you mean 'he go fulfill himself?

[Artisi]

notning can be done by the negotiating table, so myself will be watching for an alternative airport to leave the country - hope that thai airways will be flying whatever political situation is

I think the Thaksin followers have lost a lot of steams and they are just barking themselves to no existence.

I wish they would give the final blow to Thaksin by taking his money. This will surly change everything and let Thaksin know this the end game and he go <deleted>…. himself

'he go... <deleted>... himself' you mean 'he go fulfill himself?

What ever turns him on besided face, power and money

[tomahawk]

I always said I would never accuse anyone of this, but I think the guy who says Bangkok is only place that counts must be some kind of "troll.

I cannot believe someone would seriously say something like this, even if they believed it, which obviously many people do and is a large part of what is causing all this trouble in the first place. For my part, I wish no harm to come to Bangkok or its people. However I personally try to avoid the place as much as possible. It is dirty and smells terrible. Traffic is horrible. In many ways it is not even like really living in Thailand.

[ChiangMaiFun]

I always said I would never accuse anyone of this, but I think the guy who says Bangkok is only place that counts must be some kind of "troll.

I cannot believe someone would seriously say something like this, even if they believed it, which obviously many people do and is a large part of what is causing all this trouble in the first place. For my part, I wish no harm to come to Bangkok or its people. However I personally try to avoid the place as much as possible. It is dirty and smells terrible. Traffic is horrible. In many ways it is not even like really living in Thailand.

here,here!

[brahmburgers]

Some basic differences between demonstrations by the Yellows and ones by the Reds:

1. The Yellows were generally peaceful, whereas the Reds have been threatening.

2. The Yellows brought along babies and grandparents. The Reds mostly have young adults with gnarly attitudes.

3. The Yellow demonstrations have been well attended. The Red demonstrations, since Spring of '09, have been sparsely attended, if not called off right before the scheduled date because fear of few numbers attending.

4. The Yellows are generally not paid to attend, the Reds are generally paid to attend.

I wonder if Thais have a childhood story in their archives similar to "The Boy Who Cried Wolf". For those who don't know, it's about a boy who found he could get a lot of attention in his village by loudly yelling 'wolf!'. All the villagers would grab weapons and/or flee fearfully each time the boy yelled it, even though there wasn't a wolf threatening the village those times. Several episodes later, the boy notices a real wolf trotting towards the village. He runs to town and yells again, "Wolf, wolf!" but all the villagers just grin at him and do nothing, because they're so used to his bluffs.

The story dovetails perfectly with the recent warnings about Reds demonstrating en masse and causing chaos and possibly bringing down the government. Those who are bleating such alarms are like the boy who cried wolf. In other words, there is no wolf threatening to come in to the village. Mr. Thaksin has essentially been de-fanged, and his support is getting more flaccid week by week.

[mca]

What ever turns him on besides face, power and money

Don't forget the women. Sorry, bit of a Tony Montana moment there.

[livinthailandos]

Actually I'd like to add the only thing that really seems to warrant more attention

A Verdict on the Court case of Thakin's Assets

This will more or less determine in a way how much real trouble can be caused by the reds. After to keep a crowd of people going you need funding and you need money. So as far as this post goes I'll wait till the court case is done

[Jingthing]

Get real. Political change in Thailand happens in Bangkok. Its the capital. If you are trying to topple the government here, your target is always in Bangkok. That's all it is. Provincials, don't get all huffy about nothing.

[Thai at Heart]

Get real. Political change in Thailand happens in Bangkok. Its the capital. If you are trying to topple the government here, your target is always in Bangkok. That's all it is. Provincials, don't get all huffy about nothing.

Political change doesn't happen in Bangkok. Laws get passed there, but the parliament can sit anywhere it likes.

Not getting huffy, but I believe your statement is absolutely 100% wrong and once again explains the polarisation that has happened in Thailand in the last 10 years. The great political change that has occurred in Thailand has been created by votes in Isaan and the North in the last 10 years.

The provinces took their rightful place as the major political force in Thailand. It is just that those in Bangkok realised that once the provinces unified as a force, the influence of Bangkok could not override the voting weight of the provinces. So inevitably, those that believe they matter in Bangkok realised that they had better redress that situation with a few tanks and some judges.

There is more to economic and political life than Bangkok.

[Jingthing]

JR, I don't think he is as smart as you think. Of course most of his assets are frozen, why the big revolutionary fuss, otherwise? You don't really believe he is the Thai version of Nelson Mandella, do you?

Edited January 2, 2010 by Jingthing

[ChiangMaiFun]

Some basic differences between demonstrations by the Yellows and ones by the Reds:

1. The Yellows were generally peaceful, whereas the Reds have been threatening.

2. The Yellows brought along babies and grandparents. The Reds mostly have young adults with gnarly attitudes.

3. The Yellow demonstrations have been well attended. The Red demonstrations, since Spring of '09, have been sparsely attended, if not called off right before the scheduled date because fear of few numbers attending.

4. The Yellows are generally not paid to attend, the Reds are generally paid to attend.

I wonder if Thais have a childhood story in their archives similar to "The Boy Who Cried Wolf". For those who don't know, it's about a boy who found he could get a lot of attention in his village by loudly yelling 'wolf!'. All the villagers would grab weapons and/or flee fearfully each time the boy yelled it, even though there wasn't a wolf threatening the village those times. Several episodes later, the boy notices a real wolf trotting towards the village. He runs to town and yells again, "Wolf, wolf!" but all the villagers just grin at him and do nothing, because they're so used to his bluffs.

The story dovetails perfectly with the recent warnings about Reds demonstrating en masse and causing chaos and possibly bringing down the government. Those who are bleating such alarms are like the boy who cried wolf. In other words, there is no wolf threatening to come in to the village. Mr. Thaksin has essentially been de-fanged, and his support is getting more flaccid week by week.

You're joking right? Yellows taking control of airport was peaceful? disrupting and hitting the Thai economy for years to come? and not getting paid? I know people who were there - they were bussed in and paid 500 Baht a day (placed under the food box)

How naive this post is - I will say this you will be very hard pressed to find any support for Yellows up here - all the Thais I know are Red (but don't attend rallies). Bring on an election and you will see how much Yellow support there really is - but of course they won't do that.

[Jingthing]

Yeah, there are lots of red shirt supporters in Chiang Mai. Big news! You don't seriously think the situation in CM reflects the entire country, do you?

[Thai at Heart]

Yeah, there are lots of red shirt supporters in Chiang Mai. Big news! You don't seriously think the situation in CM reflects the entire country, do you?

Not that the situation in Bangkok reflects the situation in the country either.

The political power doesn't lie with Bangkok if parliaments are to be created at the ballot box. How many registered voters is in Bangkok? 7mn? That's why from time to time, the odd coup to rejig the system is needed.

[ChiangMaiFun]

Yeah, there are lots of red shirt supporters in Chiang Mai. Big news! You don't seriously think the situation in CM reflects the entire country, do you?

Only one way to find out - hold an ELECTION

[Jingthing]

Yeah, there are lots of red shirt supporters in Chiang Mai. Big news! You don't seriously think the situation in CM reflects the entire country, do you?

Not that the situation in Bangkok reflects the situation in the country either.

The political power doesn't lie with Bangkok if parliaments are to be created at the ballot box. How many registered voters is in Bangkok? 7mn? That's why from time to time, the odd coup to rejig the system is needed.

Sorry you don't get my point. If you are going to stage a government OVERTHROW you target Bangkok. That is where the government is located. Cheers.

[Jingthing]

Yeah, there are lots of red shirt supporters in Chiang Mai. Big news! You don't seriously think the situation in CM reflects the entire country, do you?

Only one way to find out - hold an ELECTION

True, but first there needs to be some agreement on a constitutional framework for these future elections. The Thaksinistas seem intent on violent revolution because that is the way they can re-install their dear leader (who has serious legal problems).