Abhisit's Political Allies Uncertain

[webfact]

ASK THE EDITORS

Who has the upper hand? Probably none

By The Nation

Published on January 15, 2010

Last week in this column I all but ruled out the possibility of a Banharn-Newin defection from the Democrat-led coalition. After our editorial department's latest re-evaluation of the situation, we still believe they wouldn't dare. However, theoretically speaking, when the Bt76 billion frozen stake of Thaksin Shinawatra comes into play, it's "now or never" if such a betrayal is to take place.

This defection theory is based on two major factors: an imminent censure motion by the Pheu Thai Party which will constitutionally nullify Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's House dissolution trump card, and the Thaksin "judgement day" which falls on February 26.

What does that mean? It means Thaksin has until the second week or so of February to overthrow the Abhisit government and hope that such a political upheaval could deter the supposedly independent judiciary, which is poised to rule on the assets case.

It won't be easy to stir up street violence or sponsor a coup or both. An easier way is to buy off Banharn Silapa-Archa and Newin Chidchob, the de facto leaders of the Chart Thai Pattana and Bhum Jai Thai parties respectively. The two key allies of Abhisit could be "bribed" to stab him in the back at the censure.

If the no-confidence motion wins the majority support of the House of Representatives, thanks to a Banharn-Newin defection, then the Pheu Thai Party can form a government immediately. Once the motion is submitted, Abhisit will have his hands tied, because the Constitution prohibits a House dissolution when a censure motion is pending.

If Abhisit wants to dissolve the House to pre-empt such a betrayal, he will have to do it now, or before a censure motion is submitted. If he opts to face the no-confidence debate, the bargaining power of Banharn and Newin will rise dramatically.

Problem is, most, if not all, of that is theory. Rumours about Banharn hooking up with Thaksin have intensified lately but planning a defection would put the Chart Thai Pattana Party on a path as dangerous as anyone's. Newin is an even bigger doubt, especially after he actively helped defuse a red-shirt resurgence in December by organising the talk-of-the-town light-and-sound event to celebrate His Majesty the King's birthday.

On one hand, Abhisit wouldn't want to be seen as a paranoid man so willing to sever ties with the only key allies he has. On the other hand, how much can he trust these two guys?

It is believed this dilemma more or less surfaced during Abhisit's unexpected meeting with Privy Council head Prem Tinsulanonda on Wednesday evening. Both men reportedly discussed a House dissolution, although the meeting ended with Prem encouraging Abhisit to carry on.

Newin and Banharn have their own dilemma, obviously. How safe is it to go back and bet on the same old horse that they had backed to their own detriment? And for this "defection" to really bear fruit, it must yield some kind of a legal victory for Thaksin in the assets case. There is no guarantee he will get that, even if the Abhisit administration crumbled tomorrow.

As Thailand rolls toward February 26, nobody can be sure of anything. Only a few days ago, it was an unlikely scenario for Abhisit to dissolve the House to "escape" the imminent censure motion and remain an acting leader long enough to oversee the conclusion of the assets case. That scenario might still be unlikely, but it's no longer implausible.

One thing is certain: Mistrust will prevail and anxiety will peak. Not that we aren't extremely distrustful and anxious already.

-- The Nation 2010-01-15

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[londonthai]

both Banharn and Newin defected the reds, so don't see the reason, why they wouldn't betray the yellows - as they don't have any political programs and principles, they would switch to whoever pays them more. The more often they switch, the richer they are.

so we have to wait and see who payed them more

[animatic]

Just more questionable propaganda I suspect.

Of course sowing worry is one of the Thaksin PR gambits.

But we do know Banharn and Newin have their price.

But I imagine that asking price is MUCH higher to Thaksin these days.

[londonthai]

Just more questionable propaganda I suspect.

Of course sowing worry is one of the Thaksin PR gambits.

the editiors and sponsors of the nation have already switched it's side from the yellows to reds?

must be a worrying trend for some

[givenall]

Just more questionable propaganda I suspect.

Of course sowing worry is one of the Thaksin PR gambits.

the editiors and sponsors of the nation have already switched it's side from the yellows to reds?

must be a worrying trend for some

The political and power struggle is one the same. I don’t believe the power to be has any doubt they will continue to stay in power. As far as Mr. T, I can see how and why he would be in the play. He is in the mercy of the ruling power and his money is hostage to what is going on especially now that he is running into RED all over the world and soon he will have no friends

[h90]

both Banharn and Newin defected the reds, so don't see the reason, why they wouldn't betray the yellows - as they don't have any political programs and principles, they would switch to whoever pays them more. The more often they switch, the richer they are.

so we have to wait and see who payed them more

I did not see them join the yellows. But else I agree.....Question of money, maybe not alone direct payment, more the total....what they can get from corruption which is a question on how long they can hold which positions.

The Democrats try to block them in corruption, while Thaksin tried to get every corruption himself. Democrat government might be able to stay long. Another TRT, PPP, PTP etc government will have the Yellows reorganize again.....

So many things in consideration I think. One point are also the rumors that Thaksin is low on money so he might not be able to buy them out.

[limhoi]

Just more questionable propaganda I suspect.

Of course sowing worry is one of the Thaksin PR gambits.

But we do know Banharn and Newin have their price.

But I imagine that asking price is MUCH higher to Thaksin these days.

Could be true Animatic.

BTW, how is the investigation coming along into that staged explosion at the last PAD rally? It certainly seems criminal to me to injure innocent bystanders just for dramatic effect!

"Corruption/censorship flourishes, when good people say nothing"....ring a bell Animatic?

[virtualtraveller]

Pity this speculating editorial doesn't spell out exactly what is technically/legally possible with the assets case. If the govt were to change tomorrow would they have enough power/influence to have the case verdict a) delayed re-tried c) subject to a new Thaksin-friendly judiciary. A and B maybe, C would take quite a bit longer. In meddling as such what would be the reaction on the street from the PAD etc.

If Barnharn and Newin were to bolt they would need to be offered a lot of money, and it would need to top any counter offers from the 'Mandarins' to stay put. For Newin there is the possibility his party will take a beating at the next election since many Thaksin sympathisers in his part of Isarn resent what he did. An election will also be costly for both. I'm guessing Thaksin hasn't got enough money to lure them away, because they will want to see CASH, before the assets seizure verdict (and are guessing the result is a foregone conclusion). Considering what Newin did to Thaksin in the first place, it will be a bitter pill to swallow, giving him oodles of money to come back.

If it is clear that a sudden change of govt won't immediately influence the pending verdict, I think Thaksin would rather agitate for a house dissolution and wait for an election, hoping he can win an outright majority and not have to pander to all the minor parties. He might then try to go the route of having the 1997 charter restored in a referendum, thus eliminating all his woes in one fell swoop. On the other hand, if he really was broke, he would need his assets unseized to win the next election but if that was the case I think alot of people around him would be deserting by now since the money has stopped flowing.

Anyway, who knows he's a big liar prone to deception and creating speculation.

Also, if the power of govt changed hands in a no confidence vote then the PAD could quite rightfully take to the streets demanding an election, accusing the new govt of not holding a mandate from the people (stop me if you've heard this story before!)

[animatic]

Perpetrators, collaborators, bystanders, victims: we can be clear about three of these categories. The bystander, however, is the fulcrum. If there are enough notable exceptions, then protest reaches a critical mass. We don’t usually think of history as being shaped by silence, but, as English philosopher Edmund Burke said,

‘The only thing necessary for the triumph [of evil] is for good men to do nothing.’

Now here of course we have a problem. Presumably our population of men contains good men, bad men, and in-between men, the bad men being the ones who work for the triumph of evil. Suppose, for the sake of argument, that the good men amount to 10% of the population. Now if a few good men, say 2% of the population, do nothing, you still have 8% of the population made up of good men who are doing something. Will the efforts of the 8% fail because of the inertia of the 2%? If so, Burke’s sentence seems to be saying that all good men must be active in resisting a particular evil, and this, unless the activity were seen as a definition of goodness, is so unlikely to take place that one would expect the triumph of the evil to be guaranteed. After all, some of the good men may be ill in bed. Or it may mean that certain well-placed good men do nothing. But that would be a mere tautology, another way of saying that the evil will succeed unless certain good men in a position to prevent it from succeeding act to prevent it.

A request has been made for defense vs censorship, and not knowing the circumstances of said censorship,

one can't mount a valid defense. And at the same time not be an apologist for those circumstances.

This is not a newspaper of record but a private realm of discussion, that can be viewed publicly.

And some public persons can join, but the members are not sole arbiters of what is appropriate.

"Moral indignation is jealousy with a halo."

- H. G. Wells (1866-1946)

"Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever."

- Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

"Victory goes to the player who makes the next-to-last mistake."

- Chessmaster Savielly Grigorievitch Tartakower (1887-1956)

I suspect this last is a likely riposte to those departed, who wish not to be, and yet are.

The political scene in Thailand is rife with changing of parties, allegiances and cash flow transfers.

Much as that is the S.O.P. motus operandi of politics, added to

the, finally, flagging political mini-fiefdom/dynasties country wide,

combined they make the current practice of Democracy,

the idealistic concept, exceptionally disingenuous.

Sure people vote as the think best, with the information at their disposal. But regardless of their wishes, the political classes go for the pocketbook

of biggest advantage to THEMSELVES.

The political scene in Thailand is rife with changing of parties, allegiances and cash flow transfers.

Much as that is the S.O.P. motus operandi of politics, added to

the, finally, flagging political mini-fiefdom/dynasties country wide,

combined they make the current practice of Democracy,

the idealistic concept, exceptionally disingenuous.

Sure people vote as the think best, with the information at their disposal. But regardless of their wishes, the political classes go for the pocketbook

of biggest advantage to THEMSELVES.

[animatic]

A bitter pill certainly, but sometimes you gotta take your medicine.

Then again how much money would you take

to trust someone that would buy your loyalty?

Knowing that's what THEY think of loyalty; it has a price.

[Hardback]

Just more questionable propaganda I suspect.

Of course sowing worry is one of the Thaksin PR gambits.

But we do know Banharn and Newin have their price.

But I imagine that asking price is MUCH higher to Thaksin these days.

The Thaksin camp is hardly alone in the use of this tactic..ISOC and various other Govt/Military spokespeople spout this daily on all manner of subjects. This election if and when it comes will be interesting and whether Abhisit has allies or not makes no difference.

[Publicus]

Just more questionable propaganda I suspect.

Of course sowing worry is one of the Thaksin PR gambits.

the editiors and sponsors of the nation have already switched it's side from the yellows to reds?

must be a worrying trend for some

The political and power struggle is one the same. I don't believe the power to be has any doubt they will continue to stay in power. As far as Mr. T, I can see how and why he would be in the play. He is in the mercy of the ruling power and his money is hostage to what is going on especially now that he is running into RED all over the world and soon he will have no friends

1) Does Thaksin have the cash money to buy Barnharn and Newin? Based on all (still) undenied present reports, it appears not.

2) If Thaksin quietly does have enuff truckloads of cash for the two, does either of them, or both together want to mount aged swayback horses to charge a herd of elephants? (Or a battalion of tanks?) Not if in their right minds. 

3) Thaksin's talk about the ultimate trump card of street violence to cause a 'military action', is either all blue smoke and mirrors or he does have Red generals and troops he believes he can rely on. This seems dubious at best. Anupong does seem finally in charge of THE army.

It's also interesting that when a newspaper reports news and views, certain people of a particular hue would like to claim a sudden chameleon-like reversal and switch, like to try to suggest some new "trend" to some new unspecified opposite pov. News is news, as always. Newspapers under ownership that is stable and continuing don't make desperate reverse lunges.......some people occasionally do, but not such news organizations. So forget it 'cause it's not happening. 

[geriatrickid]

The nation should change its name to the Bangkok Tattler with the slogan, All the gossip, rumours and speculation can now be found from one source!

I make no secret of my disappointment in PM Abhisit, but this sort of speculation is unfair. The fellow has to work with what he has and was obliged to try and build a "consensus" or whatever the Thai version is. If the support changes, I would expect tha PM Abhisit would have anticipated the risks involved with making deals with various devils so that he could try and cement his position in power. The assumption that people will desert Mr. Abhisit because Mr. Thaksin would wave some baht is an insult to everyone implicated. Some of the basis for people to have switched allegiances in the 1st place was based upon policy belief or feuds. Maybe at the time Mr. Abhisit had plans and views that attracted those that agreed, and now Mr. Abhisit by circumstance or political policy change cannot carry through on the positions that won over these people. It happens in every coalition and it is why minority governments collapse around the world. In any case, the speculation from the gossip columnist at the Nation is just that, speculation from people that seem to get a thrill from the political strife.

[Dustybin]

Unbelievable.

Just give the people the say with an election, as should have happened two years ago.

[animatic]

Unbelievable.

Just give the people the say with an election, as should have happened two years ago.

It COULD have happened last year, 2 years ago it DID HAPPEN.

Try to keep up.

One year ago it wasn't legally necessary to have another election

because a coalition government was formed in the required time frame.

[tig28]

Unbelievable.

Just give the people the say with an election, as should have happened two years ago.

It COULD have happened last year, 2 years ago it DID HAPPEN.

Try to keep up.

One year ago it wasn't legally necessary to have another election

because a coalition government was formed in the required time frame.

HI animatic

The December 2007 election was held under the gentle touch of the Junta. Every power they could summons had been directed at the destruction of Thaksin in the lead-up --- these men had a great great deal to loose.They employed every means they could dream of: murder- intimidation - bribery -- military pressure -- corruption at all levels etc. etc.

Then ..... after all they had done .... all that effort .....Shock!! --- Horror !! The PPP were victorious --- finishing (I think) just 14 seats short of an outright majority!

The terror in the hearts of the coup supporters was real and justified.

Lets see --- Thaksin parties had won the elections in 2001,2005 & 2007. They also would have won again in the scheduled 2006 election ---- but a coup only days before it was due prevented that humiliation.

The Democrats have not won an election in living memory.

. The PPP had won against all the odds (and expectations of their enemies) ---- then had to endure the non-righteous indignation of the perennial losers --- this -- with some help from their powerful and very very desperate friends ----- drove the legitimately elected Government into the wilderness.

Yep --- Dustbin hasn't got it too far wrong !!

[Dustybin]

Unbelievable.

Just give the people the say with an election, as should have happened two years ago.

It COULD have happened last year, 2 years ago it DID HAPPEN.

Try to keep up.

One year ago it wasn't legally necessary to have another election

because a coalition government was formed in the required time frame.

Thats right.

When the guy holding the gun says it ain't legally necessary,...... then everyone agrees , it ain't legally necessary.

[hammered]

Banharn playing both sides for the most he can get. Oh what a surprise.

BJT/Newin. Doubt they are really ready to switch just yet unless everything falls apart. BJT are just starting to get some momentum and the impact of the government spending programs will hit home in the coming months.

A quick reshuffle just happened. A censure motion looms and the coalition allies are demanding constittuional change. Nice pressure on Abhisit who in reality has to know where his parties red lines are and to know what is bluff, what is negotiable and what is not negotiable, and that if he felt the need he could govern for months in a minority. Guess the Dems end up giving their allies a bunch more to keep them happy and we lurch on to the next one.

[Ricardo]

Unbelievable.

Just give the people the say with an election, as should have happened two years ago.

The election to which you refer was surely in December 2007, ie some 25 months ago, or did you miss it ?

Edited January 16, 2010 by Ricardo

[Credo]

The game is the same, only the price has increased. Inflation maybe?

[animatic]

Unbelievable.

Just give the people the say with an election, as should have happened two years ago.

The election to which you refer was surely in December 2007, ie some 25 months ago, or did you miss it ?

Seems they didn't miss that, and that their party won in spite of good efforts to prevent it happening.

They also seem to forget that their party was also immediately caught cheating,

at a high enough level to be disbanded, which could account for the win too.

Ah yes can't win fairly without cheating egregiously,

but blame those that caught you cheating and call THEM undemocratic.

Hypocracy runs deeper than the Marianas trench in Thailand.

They also seem to think that all Thais can't think, about whether to vote

for or against the proffered constitution yea or nay,

simply because mass NO advertising was limited.

You sell the country's Somchais pretty short with that view.

People know the difference between going forward and stagnating without

Team Thaksin telling them what to think...

if they get the option to hear ALL SIDES.

That seems to be more likely in a future election than in most past ones.

[p_brownstone]

Much as I despise the man, Newin is an astute political animal. He’s also relatively young and very ambitious - he has his eye firmly on the PM’s job in 5 – 10 years or so.

It was the defection of Newins’ group which brought the current Administration into power, and I cannot see any possibility that he would change sides yet again and allow Thaksin a route back to Government.

Newin knows that Thaksin has a very long memory and would revenge himself on the earlier defection as soon and as viciously as possible.

Patrick

Edit spelling

Edited January 17, 2010 by p_brownstone

[animatic]

Much as I despise the man, Newin is an astute political animal. He’s also relatively young and very ambitious - he has his eye firmly on the PM’s job in 5 – 10 years or so.

It was the defection of Newins’ group which brought the current Administration into power, and I cannot see any possibility that he would change sides yet again and allow Thaksin a route back to Government.

Newin knows that Thaksin has a very long memory and would revenge himself on the earlier defection as soon and as viciously as possible.

Patrick

Edit spelling

If Newin were that stupid, and he sure isn't,

to take a buy back from Thaksin, he also knows

the Thaksin mind set well enough to know;

Thaksin would do his level best to put Newin in his place at the 1st opportunity

and quite more strongly than needed, to make his point.

As one brutally elegant political animal,

he certainly knows the score and the lay of the land.

Like that panther on the loose in Chumpon,

you have to admire him, even as you KNOW if given the opportunity

it would eat your heart and liver for dinner if given half a chance.

Edited January 17, 2010 by animatic

[LaoPo]

Much as I despise the man, Newin is an astute political animal. He’s also relatively young and very ambitious - he has his eye firmly on the PM’s job in 5 – 10 years or so.

It was the defection of Newins’ group which brought the current Administration into power, and I cannot see any possibility that he would change sides yet again and allow Thaksin a route back to Government.

Newin knows that Thaksin has a very long memory and would revenge himself on the earlier defection as soon and as viciously as possible.

Patrick

Edit spelling

Isn't he a political animal indeed..the living example of a Thai politicical opportunist* ?

Newin Chidchob,

hugging Thaksin..... hugging Abhisit

Charming man.

* did you know that in the world of animals there are also food-opportunists?...animals who eat ANYTHING ?

What a world

LaoPo

[animatic]

And those that only eat specific things,

but it must be long dead and rotting before they like it.

But only MAN kills just to kill,

or because he ego is slighted in some way.

Edited January 17, 2010 by animatic

[LaoPo]

And those that only eat specific things,

but it must be long dead and rotting before they like it.

But only MAN kills just to kill,

or because he ego is slighted in some way.

..are you feeling unwell ?

LaoPo

[animatic]

Fit as a fiddle and ready for love.

And you; not enough love lately?

Sharks and Crocodiles serve their meals quite differently.

You are just as dead dinning with either or nearby them.

And the Thailand political scene resembles a cesspool of Sharky crocs.

But only man ENJOYS killing his own kind for the fun of it.

Or stabbing them in the back for their own advantage.

Or excusing collateral damage to get what they want.

Only MAN likes to realign the pecking order just because he can,

not because it does him any advantage.

[Dustybin]

Ready for love,.... the purchase of thai love.

[animatic]

Ready for love,.... the purchase of thai love.

YOU, clearly would be quite surprised.

Since you clearly have no idea.

But I guess you still believe love can be bought,

Oh yeah, your political idol still thinks that's so.

Abhisits allies might be uncertain, but we are certain his enemy's are well and truly so,

and they want us to THINK Abhisit side is uncertain. And they try and try to convince us of that.

[Dustybin]

Definately a Plant......pot