Pound Starting To Stenghen.

[barryofthailand]

Today the American Dollar is 33.05, and the pound is 51.78. Looks like to me that the baht is strong and the pound just got weaker.

Barry

[churchill]

UK finances deteriorate further

The state of the UK's public finances deteriorated further in January, according to official figures.

The Office of National Statistics said the government borrowed a further £4.3bn last month - much more than expected.

Analysts had expected the government to repay about £2.8bn of its debts, but tax income for the month was lower than expected.

January is traditionally a strong month for tax income.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8521587.stm

Edited February 18, 2010 by churchill

[churchill]

From - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...zkGRQ&pos=1

Britain posted its first budget deficit for January since records began in 1993 as the longest recession on record shriveled the nation’s tax take.

Government spending exceeded revenue by 4.3 billion pounds ($6.7 billion) last month, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists forecast a 2.6 billion-pound surplus, according to the median of 16 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

The pound fell after the release showed Britain failed to generate a surplus in a month which is normally the annual peak for tax collection as the health of public finances around Europe attract investor scrutiny. With an election due by June, Prime Minister Gordon Brown is arguing that spending cuts should be deferred to avoid an economic relapse.

“This is potential very worrying,” James Knightley, an economist at ING Financial Markets in London, said in a telephone interview. “Given the concerns about public deficits around Europe at the moment, this could put the U.K. back in the spotlight. It may mean politicians have to take even more austere measures than what is already being talked about.”

The pound fell as much as 0.3 percent against the dollar after the release, trading at $1.5583 as of 9:43 a.m. in London. The currency was down 0.7 percent on the day. The yield on the benchmark two-year government bond was up 1 basis point today at 1.149 percent.

Tax Take

Tax receipts dropped 11.8 percent compared with a year earlier, outweighing the 10.2 percent decline in total outlays, the statistics office said. Lower revenues from income tax and capital gains led the decrease.

Barclays Plc, the U.K.’s second-largest bank, said on Feb. 16 that it set aside 38 percent of revenue in remuneration for employees at its investment bank, down from 44 percent of revenue in 2008.

The 178 billion-pound budget deficit has taken center stage in the battle to win an election that Brown must hold by June. He has deferred a squeeze on spending until 2011, saying Conservative plans to start cutting spending this year risk wrecking the recovery.

In a letter to the Sunday Times published Feb. 14, a group of economists including former Bank of England policy makers Timothy Besley, Howard Davies, Charles Goodhart and John Vickers said Brown’s plan lacks urgency. Finance minister Alistair Darling this week rejected that call. He plans to cut the entire deficit in half in four years from 2011, reducing the structural gap by two-thirds.

‘Strong Case’

“There is a very strong case for tightening fiscal policy as rapidly as possible over the next few years,” Bank of England Deputy Governor John Gieve told the Daily Mail in an interview published today.

January’s figures reflect self-assessed income tax payments for the fiscal year through March 2009, when the recession killed jobs, share prices tumbled and income from dividends and savings fell. Quarterly payments of tax on company profits also pour in during the month.

A measure of the actual cash entering and leaving the Treasury showed a 11.8 billion-pound surplus in January. Economists predicted a 20 billion-pound surplus, according to the median forecast of 11 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

[cookstar]

THE POUND IS IN FREEFALL ONCE AGAIN.

51 today and 15.5 to the usd, how can it drop from 70 baht to the pound in 15 months, i feel like crying.

[MJP]

THE POUND IS IN FREEFALL ONCE AGAIN.

51 today and 15.5 to the usd, how can it drop from 70 baht to the pound in 15 months, i feel like crying.

[Thongkorn]

THE POUND IS IN FREEFALL ONCE AGAIN.

51 today and 15.5 to the usd, how can it drop from 70 baht to the pound in 15 months, i feel like crying.

its being kept at an artificial low ,

[MJP]

THE POUND IS IN FREEFALL ONCE AGAIN.

51 today and 15.5 to the usd, how can it drop from 70 baht to the pound in 15 months, i feel like crying.

its being kept at an artificial low ,

[chiang mai]

THE POUND IS IN FREEFALL ONCE AGAIN.

51 today and 15.5 to the usd, how can it drop from 70 baht to the pound in 15 months, i feel like crying.

its being kept at an artificial low ,

An my waste line is being kept artificially large!

But seriously though - GBP/USD at 2.10 was artificially high and 1.70 is probably about where it should be, 1.50 means that it's losing control of the game.

[MJP]

THE POUND IS IN FREEFALL ONCE AGAIN.

51 today and 15.5 to the usd, how can it drop from 70 baht to the pound in 15 months, i feel like crying.

its being kept at an artificial low ,

An my waste line is being kept artificially large!

But seriously though - GBP/USD at 2.10 was artificially high and 1.70 is probably about where it should be, 1.50 means that it's losing control of the game.

http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates

Alsways useful if you want to know the history of any FX rate.

[MJP]

Heading sub-51 today.

Monday?

Bounce?

Unlikely in my opinion.

[chiang mai]

Heading sub-51 today.

Monday?

Bounce?

Unlikely in my opinion.

Bounce, almost certain.

[MJP]

Kind of hope so, I'll do the shopping list for March on Tuesday if it does.

Heading sub-51 today.

Monday?

Bounce?

Unlikely in my opinion.

Bounce, almost certain.

[MJP]

Okay, I know it's the Dialy Mail and I apologise.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12...p-recession.htm

Gordon Brown yesterday signalled the prospect of an early election after Britain was battered by a wave of dire economic news.

A slew of torrid reports triggered fears that Britain will tumble back into recession with a worse budget deficit than Greece.

It was revealed yesterday that the Treasury borrowed money in January for the first time on record. January is normally a month of big surpluses, because of the tax receipts that come rolling in at the beginning of the year.

The Prime Minister will tomorrow indicate his intention to hold an early election by spelling out Labour's main election pledges - one of which is to 'ensure the recovery' of the economy. Gathering fears of a 'double dip' recession could force him to call an election before April 23.

That is the day the Office of National Statistics releases growth figures which could show the UK has plunged back into the red. On a bleak day:

• The Treasury said it was forced to borrow £4.3billion in January - normally a month when it reports bumper surpluses.
  
• The housing market took a new dive as mortgage lending tumbled to a ten-year low.
  
• A Bank of England survey showed lending to cash-starved businesses fell by the most on record in December.
  
• Britain tumbled in a league table of economies, recording the second-lowest productivity among G7 countries after Japan.
  
• A report revealed the number of new homes built last year fell to its lowest level since the 1940s.
  

Mr Brown has long been expected to call an election for May 6, the day local elections are held.

Labour strategists openly admit that his best hope of victory will be to convince voters that he made the right economic choices to drag the country out of the economic slump and that the Tories would endanger the recovery.

Three of the four major themes of the Labour manifesto depend on the green shoots of economic recovery.

In an economic speech today the Prime Minister will set out the action that the Government is taking to 'protect future jobs and new industries', one of the four pledges.

The others include 'protecting frontline services' from spending cuts and 'helping the many' - a new foray into class warfare.

But Mr Brown's plans were undermined by the dismal economic numbers yesterday, which triggered a slide in the pound, as international investors took fright at the scale of Britain's budgetary meltdown.

Sterling fell 0.7 per cent to $1.55 against the dollar, and by 0.2 per cent to 1.15 euros.

The Treasury normally records a healthy budget surplus in January because that is when tax receipts usually flood in to the Exchequer. But a combination of job losses and sluggish growth have led to a slump in the tax take.

Last month saw the first deficit since records began in 1993, the Office of National Statistics reported.

The £4.3billion of net borrowing compares with surpluses of £5.3billion in January 2009 and £14billion the January before that. So far this year the Treasury has borrowed an unprecedented £ 122.4billion, twice the tally recorded at this point last year.

That leaves Britain on course to record a deficit for the fiscal year of 12.8 per cent of gross domestic product. That would be even higher than the 12.7 per cent deficit in Greece, which is seeking a bailout from its fellow eurozone nations.

The numbers prompted alarm among business leaders, who warned the UK could lose its triple-A credit rating, forcing up interest rates - which would lead to mortgage misery for millions.

David Kern, chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce, said: 'The worse-than-expected January figures further emphasise the dangers facing Britain's international credit rating.'

Conservative Treasury spokesman Philip Hammond said: 'These appalling figures - showing the first January deficit on record - illustrate the scale of Labour's debt crisis.

'Every British family faces a bill of £4,800 to pay for Gordon Brown's borrowing so far this financial year alone.'

Yesterday's report showed the Treasury is being forced to devote a growing amount of money to servicing the £848.5billion national debt.

Interest payments are already running at a record £4.26billion a month, nearly twice the Foreign Office's £2.3billion budget for the current year.

This is becoming a huge drain on the economy, as increasing quantities of public money are effectively flushed away.

A Treasury spokesman played down the concerns about the public finances, saying Chancellor Alistair Darling is on track to meet his £170billion Pre-Budget report deficit forecast.

'With only two months remaining, borrowing including financial sector interventions is at £122.4billion against a full year forecast of £170.4billion,' he said.

But separate reports suggested the UK is sinking even deeper into an economic mire.

A report from the Council of Mortgage Lenders showed that mortgage advances were just £9.1billion in January, the lowest level since February 2000.

Separately, a Government report revealed that just 118,000 new homes were built last year - the lowest figure since 1947.

Taken together, the reports suggest that the UK's tentative recovery could easily lose steam. While unemployment slipped back to 2.46million in December, many analysts expect it to rise beyond

2.5million later this year as businesses struggle. The economy grew only 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2009, leaving Britain perilously exposed to a double-dip recession.

Heightening those fears, a Bank of England report showed that lending to businesses plummeted by an annual 8.1 per cent in December.

The record decline will deepen fury at the banks, which are continuing to starve their customers of credit despite receiving a near-£1trillion public bailout.

But the continued lending drought could also derail hopes for a private sector-led recovery. Unsecured lending to consumers also saw a record fall, according to the Bank's report.

[lannarebirth]

$USD:GBP filled a gap from last May today. Should be good for a wee bounce. It's trend seems to be guided by it's 150 ma, which it is well under. Negative till that condition changes IMO.

[MJP]

$USD:GBP filled a gap from last May today. Should be good for a wee bounce. It's trend seems to be guided by it's 150 ma, which it is well under. Negative till that condition changes IMO.

Wait until the possible hung parliament, forthcoming election.

[chiang mai]

$USD:GBP filled a gap from last May today. Should be good for a wee bounce. It's trend seems to be guided by it's 150 ma, which it is well under. Negative till that condition changes IMO.

Wait until the possible hung parliament, forthcoming election.

That's a scary thought but it does look likely since no party has really grabbed the lead and impressed (me at least) - I kinds had it in the back of my mind some months back that Cameron and Co would win it all easily but they do look like they might just be able to manage to blow it. The problem is going to be I think that far too many voters will, out of despair, cast votes for non-mainstream parties and that will dilute the potential for a clear cut Lab or Con victory.

[MJP]

There needs to be a greater than 6% swing to the Tories to avoid a hung parliament.

Quite frankly, hang the lot of 'em.

$USD:GBP filled a gap from last May today. Should be good for a wee bounce. It's trend seems to be guided by it's 150 ma, which it is well under. Negative till that condition changes IMO.

Wait until the possible hung parliament, forthcoming election.

That's a scary thought but it does look likely since no party has really grabbed the lead and impressed (me at least) - I kinds had it in the back of my mind some months back that Cameron and Co would win it all easily but they do look like they might just be able to manage to blow it. The problem is going to be I think that far too many voters will, out of despair, cast votes for non-mainstream parties and that will dilute the potential for a clear cut Lab or Con victory.

[neil324]

Would you like to take over this shambles? It's looking odds on things are going to pop no matter what is done.

[MJP]

Exactly. Major also won the GE in '92, smack bang in the middle of a recession.

Would you like to take over this shambles? It's looking odds on things are going to pop no matter what is done.

[MJP]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/12d6e176-1d75-11...?nclick_check=1

$USD:GBP filled a gap from last May today. Should be good for a wee bounce. It's trend seems to be guided by it's 150 ma, which it is well under. Negative till that condition changes IMO.

Wait until the possible hung parliament, forthcoming election.

That's a scary thought but it does look likely since no party has really grabbed the lead and impressed (me at least) - I kinds had it in the back of my mind some months back that Cameron and Co would win it all easily but they do look like they might just be able to manage to blow it. The problem is going to be I think that far too many voters will, out of despair, cast votes for non-mainstream parties and that will dilute the potential for a clear cut Lab or Con victory.

[mommysboy]

My guess is Labour will get back in. Too many people will remember those awful Thatcher years which did little save fill some already fat pockets. And Tories seem weak and ineffective too me anyway.

But lets just hope and prey for a clear result regardless and then personally I want to see spending cuts, pay freezes, and those bar stewards in the financial sector hit with just about every windfall and stealth tax under the sun for the next 20 years. SCUM.

[MJP]

I actually make you right there old chap. It actually makes no difference.

Electoral options for the UK can really be summed up, thus...

My guess is Labour will get back in.Too many people will remember those awful Thatcher years which did little save fill some already fat pockets. And Tories seem weak and ineffective too me anyway.

But lets just hope and prey for a clear result regardless and then personally I want to see spending cuts, pay freezes, and those bar stewards in the financial sector hit with just about every windfall and stealth tax under the sun for the next 20 years. SCUM.

[MJP]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2...n-outright.html

$USD:GBP filled a gap from last May today. Should be good for a wee bounce. It's trend seems to be guided by it's 150 ma, which it is well under. Negative till that condition changes IMO.

Wait until the possible hung parliament, forthcoming election.

That's a scary thought but it does look likely since no party has really grabbed the lead and impressed (me at least) - I kinds had it in the back of my mind some months back that Cameron and Co would win it all easily but they do look like they might just be able to manage to blow it. The problem is going to be I think that far too many voters will, out of despair, cast votes for non-mainstream parties and that will dilute the potential for a clear cut Lab or Con victory.

[chiang mai]

Only slightly off topic but directly related to the discussion thus far - yes, another article from the Daily Mail (sorry) but a really useful and interesting chart embedded in the middle of the article showing how the UK has changed under Labour, the chart specifically describes reductions in the number of public service outlets and facilities (libraries, police stations, hospitals etc) versus the growth of other establishments such as betting shops, lap dancing clubs, supermarkets and the like, a very interesting picture which helps explain to me at least the some of the reasons for the demise of the UK as we once knew it.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12...rn-Britain.html

[lannarebirth]

Only slightly off topic but directly related to the discussion thus far - yes, another article from the Daily Mail (sorry) but a really useful and interesting chart embedded in the middle of the article showing how the UK has changed under Labour, the chart specifically describes reductions in the number of public service outlets and facilities (libraries, police stations, hospitals etc) versus the growth of other establishments such as betting shops, lap dancing clubs, supermarkets and the like, a very interesting picture which helps explain to me at least the some of the reasons for the demise of the UK as we once knew it.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12...rn-Britain.html

It's like Bedford Falls if George Bailey had never been born.

[chiang mai]

Only slightly off topic but directly related to the discussion thus far - yes, another article from the Daily Mail (sorry) but a really useful and interesting chart embedded in the middle of the article showing how the UK has changed under Labour, the chart specifically describes reductions in the number of public service outlets and facilities (libraries, police stations, hospitals etc) versus the growth of other establishments such as betting shops, lap dancing clubs, supermarkets and the like, a very interesting picture which helps explain to me at least the some of the reasons for the demise of the UK as we once knew it.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12...rn-Britain.html

It's like Bedford Falls if George Bailey had never been born.

Yup indeed although I kinda had Soddam and Gomorrah in mind!

[dmax]

dont hold your breath

[chiang mai]

dont hold your breath

Parts of Devon are nice.

[Chaimai]

Back to the election speculation - The Sun are backing the Conservatives.

Anyone remember how The Sun prevented Kinnock becoming Prime Minister.

[MJP]

I think Kinnock prevented Kinnock from becoming Prime Minister.

Back to the election speculation - The Sun are backing the Conservatives.

Anyone remember how The Sun prevented Kinnock becoming Prime Minister.