George Soros Concerned Us-china Bad Relations Could Mean A 1930s Repeat

[Jingthing]

I suggest people watch this very important interview with Soros. The more important section starts at about minute 12 for five minutes or so.

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/podcasts/...dcast.02.28.cnn

The most important part of it is Soros's concern that the rapid deterioration in US/China relations can potentially very soon bring on great depression kinds of GLOBAL economic realities.

Of course this is super relevant to Thailand, given the primacy of both the US and China trade in Thailand's economy.

I will very roughly paraphrase that part here --

The most disturbing thing ...

in the last few months ... mutual misunderstanding (China/US) ... neither side fully knows whats in the mind of the other side, unless this is arrested in the next FEW MONTHS we have a snowball effect, and as you know snowballs grow rapidly, we could yet fallback to a situation like the 1930s, each country for itself, financial protectionism, trade protectionism and a breakdown of the global economy

Before you consider this over the top, remember just last year the world was on the verge of total financial meltdown.

As a side note, Soros doubts the future of the Euro.

Edited March 1, 2010 by Jingthing

[britmaveric]

^meltdown me thinks not.

[neverdie]

The worst is yet to come. The demise of the United States of America as we know it, is looming. You have been warned

[britmaveric]

As the demise of Europe and the rest of the world. It's the end of the world... 2012 is fast approaching...

[Jingthing]

It would be nice if more informed and thoughtful posters spoke on this topic. Particularly the implications of the recently rapidly deteriorating relations between China and the US. Knee jerk, predictable, emotionally based responses are not very interesting.

Actually watching the video would be a good start. I don't pretend to be an expert on these issues myself. I do know that the story about China US relations deteriorating rapidly has indeed happened. So what next?

Edited March 1, 2010 by Jingthing

[britmaveric]

CHINA=US, if one hurts the other then world is fked. So by definition its in their best effort to get along. Yanks could pull a Chavez and say Fk you and not pay Chinese anything. Then what?

Edited March 1, 2010 by britmaveric

[Jingthing]

CHINA=US, if one hurts the other then world is fked. So by definition its in their best effort to get along.

Yes that is the common wisdom. However, recently things have gotten very tense. Are you even aware of that?

[tijnebijn]

If the time 0f the '30's resurrects it would mean a third worldwar is in the making .

But again for what reason and for whom it could be benificial ?

The only reason I could think of is that the US is feeling so much pressured and cornered

the only way out to keep its dominance of the world is to start a war .....

And I don't think that will ever happen , people are much to attached to their lavish lifestyles ,

I think its just trick and treat games both are playing until they can find some more common ground .

China will take its time to cope buy , it will need its time , its very complicated with 1.3 billion people in just

one country , they have to worry to keep everyone working and to stay competitive to sustain those jobs

and the need to keep the Yuan low , also historically the Chinese got to keep control if not China will collapse and

thats one of the reasons why they are so unreasonable , not easy .

And I don't have much trust in people talking everything down as Soros does this time , the world is not falling .

Don't forget that it is these kind of people who just talk the talk so they can make more profit , they die for that .

They would love to see us all panic so they can buy all those portofolios and get even richer , thats what I think .

Edited March 1, 2010 by tijnebijn

[britmaveric]

Publicly and Privately are too different matters Jing.

Edited March 1, 2010 by britmaveric

[neverdie]

Obamas government has announced federal deficits that are far worse than any prior estimates — $1.6 trillion for 2010, $1.3 trillion for 2011 and continuing massive deficits for the entire decade. The incompetence of this government is yet to be realised. Despite the smoke and mirrors being used in the USA, the evidence of the real situation is starting to be seen all round the globe. Moody's to issue a stern warning about America's credit rating and a global collapse in long-term sovereign debt is looming.

At the present time, Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland are so heavily indebted that its highly like some if not all of these countries will default in the coming weeks. Furthermore, other countries outside of the European Union, such as Ukraine, Latvai, Lithuania, Pakistan and the emirate of Dubai are even more likely to default.

Any default by just 1 of the major nations could trigger a chain reaction of bond market price collapses. When countries default interest rates will increase, credit markets could completely freeze globally.

The worst is yet to come people, 2011 and 2012 are going to be shocking. Brace yourself. Im okay, Ive got my own island and a good supply of baked beans.

Ohh sorry jingthing, I nearly forgot, you wanted someone to comment about the US/China relations. Things will continue to decline in this area, uncle sam is copping a reaming and he doesnt like it, he only likes things to go his way. China is manipulating their currency and that is really affecting the usa. It also appears that Chinas central bank is going to start tightening their fiscal policy & easy money there will be a thing of the past, again the USA can't control china and they dont like that.

Edited March 1, 2010 by neverdie

[Jingthing]

Here is some more, and balanced, info on the recent problems between China and the US. Its hard to know how this is going to play out ...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...0010201751.html

I have read that for some time now there is a vigorous political debate IN China about what to do about the US. Some want to continue the mutual dependence and some want to divorce the relationship. The latter is what Soros is worried about. I think he is correct that this is a concern. He didn't say it will happen, just that things are trending that way.

Edited March 1, 2010 by Jingthing

[MJP]

Obamas government has announced federal deficits that are far worse than any prior estimates — $1.6 trillion for 2010, $1.3 trillion for 2011 and continuing massive deficits for the entire decade. The incompetence of this government is yet to be realised. Despite the smoke and mirrors being used in the USA, the evidence of the real situation is starting to be seen all round the globe. Moody's to issue a stern warning about America's credit rating and a global collapse in long-term sovereign debt is looming.

At the present time, Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland are so heavily indebted that its highly like some if not all of these countries will default in the coming weeks. Furthermore, other countries outside of the European Union, such as Ukraine, Latvai, Lithuania, Pakistan and the emirate of Dubai are even more likely to default.

Any default by just 1 of the major nations could trigger a chain reaction of bond market price collapses. When countries default interest rates will increase, credit markets could completely freeze globally.

The worst is yet to come people, 2011 and 2012 are going to be shocking. Brace yourself. Im okay, Ive got my own island and a good supply of baked beans.

Ohh sorry jingthing, I nearly forgot, you wanted someone to comment about the US/China relations. Things will continue to decline in this area, uncle sam is copping a reaming and he doesnt like it, he only likes things to go his way. China is manipulating their currency and that is really affecting the usa. It also appears that Chinas central bank is going to start tightening their fiscal policy & easy money there will be a thing of the past, again the USA can't control china and they dont like that.

I don't know how to read the US GDP growth of 5.9% for Q4 2009.

What is it based on?

[neverdie]

MJP, You know as well as many others. The books have been cooked my friend, one of the greatest frauds of all times has occurred.

I believe there are some green spikes in the US & Other major economies, but theres been too much smoke and mirrors, changing of goal posts and utter lies, the US will enter into what i think they call a 'double dip' recession. Thats what will hurt most the investors, the people people, meanwhile these criminal politicians will hope that they can just quitely slide out the back door.

Don't underestimate the power of the little people, there will be civil unrest, once powerful countries will become struggling third world set ups. Its gonna get alot uglier before it gets better....start stocking up on baked beans

enuf from me, perhaps the usual tv armchair experts can continue the arguement.

[MJP]

MJP, You know as well as many others. The books have been cooked my friend, one of the greatest frauds of all times has occurred.

I believe there are some green spikes in the US & Other major economies, but theres been too much smoke and mirrors, changing of goal posts and utter lies, the US will enter into what i think they call a 'double dip' recession. Thats what will hurt most the investors, the people people, meanwhile these criminal politicians will hope that they can just quitely slide out the back door.

Don't underestimate the power of the little people, there will be civil unrest, once powerful countries will become struggling third world set ups. Its gonna get alot uglier before it gets better....start stocking up on baked beans

enuf from me, perhaps the usual tv armchair experts can continue the arguement.

Rhetorical question . . . make you right.

[neverdie]

Anyway, I shouldnt comment on such technical things, checking my resume now it says something like, "Can lift heavy things", so pehaps I should go move some rocks around the yard or something

[JimGant]

recently things have gotten very tense. Are you even aware of that?

Yeah, hopefully that Dalai Lama fellow will go to Disney World next time -- and not the White House.

It's interesting that the interviewer of Soros, Fareed Zakarias, had an article on China/US relations in the Washington Post recently that seemed fairly balanced. Certainly, not alarmist. Here's the lead-in paragraph:

Despite the recent squall in U.S.-Chinese relations, both countries have powerful reasons to cooperate with one another. These have grown over the past two decades, a progression that both countries seem to recognize.

For the full article, see HERE

(You may need to subscribe to see.)

[RKASA]

No worries really. In the end China can be vary pragmatic. Relations on a high simmer is OK with them. If they really need attention they can always rattle their little puppet in North Korea for us..

What they really will end up doing is buying a lot of stuff from the US to ensure the US can cover its notes. The world standard of living is going to be set by China over the course of the next 30 years.

Some say its nice to be young.. I am not so sure. Sometimes its good to be getting old.

[flying]

Particularly the implications of the recently rapidly deteriorating relations between China and the US.

A few moons back you posted a thread based on how all should give thanks to Timmy Geithner & Obama for having saved us.

Many here at that time said it was premature & what you were cheering could hurt more than help.

Now Soros comes out & says things & now you see cause for worry..... Yet many said the same back then & that it would lead to a 30's style or worse situation.

Yes China is somewhat trapped by the reserves they hold. But at the same time if you were paid large sums in basically IOU's would you not be upset to see their worth manipulated? In such a situation can anyone blame a every man/country for themselves attitude?

That video is interesting & thanks for posting it. I cannot say I agree with all of it. It was also interesting what the interviewer had to say about a VAT. His version of how it would cure all is interesting yet he never once mentioned the first place it would go would be to try & reduce the crazed bill that now exists. How long would that take before the VAT could actually be used for the niceties he mentions?

There are many places that the govt could shove its big fat fingers to stop the bleeding out yet they do not move an inch in any of those directions.

[britmaveric]

China's population as I said will be their undoing. China does not worry me.

[Jingthing]

Particularly the implications of the recently rapidly deteriorating relations between China and the US.

A few moons back you posted a thread based on how all should give thanks to Timmy Geithner & Obama for having saved us.

It is still true.

In the Soros interview, Soros also credits the Obama administration for saving the world from a global meltdown. I still agree. However, that doesn't mean all the problems have been solved permanently. OBVIOUSLY.

[nakachalet]

george said that greenspan can not be right all the time.... that greenspan had been proven incorrect in his economic theory and application....

likewise, george is destined to fail many times.... if his performance record is correct....

at any rate, george and his theory and performance supercedes many of his missed and/or failed forecasts....

now, may we hear from some of us who actually own one or several shares of george's Ha.... stocks pls?

isn't it just a few years ago that thailand refused george's offer of goodwill to speak on current world financial crises...?

yes, at the time i also voted NO to his offer.... the reason was....

that around the very good year 1997 he did something outrageous and unforgiveable in order to profit from thailand's financial demise.... but because of my advanced stage of sinility.... i just could not recall too many details.... darned

Edited March 1, 2010 by nakachalet

[flying]

In the Soros interview, Soros also credits the Obama administration for saving the world from a global meltdown. I still agree. However, that doesn't mean all the problems have been solved permanently. OBVIOUSLY.

George also said gold was a bad bubble all the while buying it.

Yes & as I said I do not agree with all of it & that Obama et al saved anything in particular.

As for solved even temporarily...Disagree

It may have postponed the pain a bit but ultimately it made things much worse as will be seen IMO

None threatened with the equivalence of bankruptcy can be helped by borrowing ever more credit/debt

Ultimately it is not China who worries me most but... my own spending out of control government

Edited March 1, 2010 by flying

[naklang]

China's population as I said will be their undoing. China does not worry me.

It worries me. I just returned from Shenzhen after having not been there since 2006. To say that attitudes and public opinion has changed would be a gross understatement. And that's with the great uniter/apologist Obama at the helm. To my eyes and ears, the Chinese see weakness and may just be stupid enough to test it. Whether they will be as monumentally stupid as Imperial Japan is the 5 trillion dollar question.

But I am the worst of the worst kind of American that works for a defense contractor shipping death everywhere, and we have been very busy, and just got busier. If the Chinese espionage machine is as good as some think, then they will know what can come their way right quick. Perhaps that will give them pause, but maybe not if nationalist (China #1 for 21st century) fervor takes root and they want to give us a try. A very bad day for humanity if allowed to happen AGAIN. We all know how well perceived weakness and appeasement worked in the 30's so I don't care if relations stink. As long as they know what happens if they don't play nice.

[BLUEEYEDTHAI]

It would be nice if more informed and thoughtful posters spoke on this topic. Particularly the implications of the recently rapidly deteriorating relations between China and the US. Knee jerk, predictable, emotionally based responses are not very interesting.

Actually watching the video would be a good start. I don't pretend to be an expert on these issues myself. I do know that the story about China US relations deteriorating rapidly has indeed happened. So what next?

Nor is Soros an expert he's just pretending.Another guy with a lot of money shooting his mouth off.

[Jonathanpattaya]

It's all speculation but, those that do know are keeping quiet.

Buying debt is a losers game whereas commodity based investments are more secure.

Basically, investment in what people need and not what they want.

[fatfather]

Here is some more, and balanced, info on the recent problems between China and the US. Its hard to know how this is going to play out ...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/conte...0010201751.html

I have read that for some time now there is a vigorous political debate IN China about what to do about the US. Some want to continue the mutual dependence and some want to divorce the relationship. The latter is what Soros is worried about. I think he is correct that this is a concern. He didn't say it will happen, just that things are trending that way.

What does the US expect from China after a climate debate? Money for air pollution? To buy "clean" technology from the West and freeze Chinas coale mines? Even Al Gore steps back from his blown up CO2 bubble because the story was invented (never really scientific approved) to create income for bankrupted governments and keep third world countries away from cheep energy sources. Not only the Chinese know about this game, many countries are not really going with this climate killer tax. China and the US will have to find a way together or beside each other, but for sure China will not accept US dominance. There are too much american show-games going on (... 9/11, axe of evel, CO2, stock market manipulations etc..), why should everybody follow them? Does not following the american way automaticly mean "bad"? I don't think so.

[aras]

Chavez never said f..k you i don't pay nothing...he just said everyone should pay their taxes ( also the americans who have kidnapped him for that and instigated a coup d'etat.....welll ) i am no fan of chavez but in many cases he is right, americans can not continue threaten and intimidate other countries for their own finacial benefits. That is why ahmadinejad of iran ( i am again far from a fan of his lol ) is so popular in most of the world despite what cnn tells you about the so called international community = wetern europe+north america

But then again i like america way better ass a superpower than china...than the world is screwed lol

CHINA=US, if one hurts the other then world is fked. So by definition its in their best effort to get along. Yanks could pull a Chavez and say Fk you and not pay Chinese anything. Then what?

''''''''''''''''''''''''

Euro is down too so i am very angry att the world it is all greece's fault, the bud racers . For a time euro was over 50 baht

[britmaveric]

Most of the world thinks ahmadinejad is a tool. Besides he's not even in charge that would be the Supreme Leader, another nutter. If the Iranian people dont even like them how can you expect the world?

As for Chavez - hmmm seizing foreign companies capital??????? That's a big fk you if I ever saw it.

[Naam]

Chavez never said f..k you i don't pay nothing...he just said everyone should pay their taxes ( also the americans who have kidnapped him for that and instigated a coup d'etat.....welll ) i am no fan of chavez but in many cases he is right, americans can not continue threaten and intimidate other countries for their own finacial benefits. That is why ahmadinejad of iran ( i am again far from a fan of his lol ) is so popular in most of the world despite what cnn tells you about the so called international community = wetern europe+north america

But then again i like america way better ass a superpower than china...than the world is screwed lol

CHINA=US, if one hurts the other then world is fked. So by definition its in their best effort to get along. Yanks could pull a Chavez and say Fk you and not pay Chinese anything. Then what?

Chavez did say it during his attempted coup in february 1992. but since he is in power (11 years now) paid every single penny of interest and matured loans on the dot. people like me are grateful that ignorants in the Greatest Nation on Earth™ and in Pattaya spread rubbish as it enables us to clip fat interest coupons (nowadays EUR >11%, USD >14%, in olden times up to 25%!). please keep up the good job denouncing Huguito El Bolivariano.

[britmaveric]

:D