UK Pound Collapse 47.99 against the Baht

[HardenedSoul]

Sounds like you are believing the hype on the news and in the papers. Look back over history and you will see that there is no reason whatsoever for the pound to take decades to recover. Of course there is something to arrest the fall. For one, there is the Tories winning the next election.

This is exactly the sort of nonsense that those who decided against converting their sterling to alternatives listened to. It doesn't matter who wins the election - the UK must reduce its deficit. If it doesn't, then the pound will be obliterated on the currency markets. If it does, then the country will fall back into recession and the there'll be Athens-style riots on the streets of every major city.

One must not underestimate the zeal and ruthlessness with which hedge funds will descend upon sterling. If Britain can't sell gilts to the open market, they'll ramp up quantitative easing and tank the currency some more. Even if they can sell them, the yields demanded will be so high as to place severe demands on the country's ability to service the debt.

Britons are unlikely to accept the degree of fall in their living standards that the timely balancing of the country's deficit requires and although this is understandable, the fact is that there are 2 billion new Asian arrivals to the middle class party. They're all demanding a piece of the action that we've taken for granted while they grafted and saved and they're not going to give a monkey's about the hardship being endured in Blighty or the rest of the developed world.

If I still held sterling instead of my gold and Canadian dollars, I'd be waiting for a pullback in precious metals prices and any brief rally in the pound with a view to dumping that bog roll currency poste haste.

[Sakeopete]

I think the government is keeping the baht strong so the politicians can discretely move their ill gotten baht out of the country at a favorable exchange rate before an election is called. Once Thaksin and company return to power vengeance will be unleashed and many an elite will be doing a Thaksin by living in Dubai.

The Baht IS NOT STRONG! The other major currencies are weak. The situation for those of us out here is nothing to do with the Thai government maintaining a strong Baht.

I realize that but they could weaken the Baht to keep the Kingdom competitive if they wanted too.

[Thongkorn]

the £ is only Jittering because there could be a hung Parliament, It will return very slowly, The FTS has gone through the 540 barrier, That also is on the rise, After the next election the £ will strengthen.

[Paulo1]

the £ is only Jittering because there could be a hung Parliament, It will return very slowly, The FTS has gone through the 540 barrier, That also is on the rise, After the next election the £ will strengthen.

It may strengthen but i dought the primary down trend will change.

The stark downturn has led Jim Rogers and Marc Faber to predict a currency crash foreshadowing a full scale global “shakedown”.

Billionaire financier Jim Rogers has predicted that the British Pound could completely collapse within weeks, sending shockwaves throughout the global economy and heralding the beginning of a downturn that would make the recent economic crisis look tame in comparison.

“Other currencies aren’t strong and the Euro has real problems, with cracks much wider than Greece beginning to show,” Rogers said.

“But it’s the Pound that’s most vulnerable. In real terms, it’s already devalued against virtually every currency barring the Zimbabwean dollar and it’s especially exposed over the weeks running up to the UK election. In a basket of currencies, the Pound is potentially a basket case. And that will put Britain in an extremely bad position for the shakedown.”

“The last few months have seen a ‘false bounce’, shorn up by massive short-term injections of government underwriting,” Rogers, the former business partner of George Soros, said.

This is more than enough for me to hold my bearish bias.

[Thongkorn]

I accept what you say Paulo1

The Euro is in more trouble than the pound, it cannot sustain its value, It has to bailout Spain, Ireland,

Greece, France and Germany are feeling the strain, Even Russia has felt the pinch, not to menchen Ic eland. If it puts the Uk on a spot of trouble what chance the rest , i think it is relavant, Every body is in for a fall.

[Paulo1]

I accept what you say Paulo1

The Euro is in more trouble than the pound, it cannot sustain its value, It has to bailout Spain, Ireland,

Greece, France and Germany are feeling the strain, Even Russia has felt the pinch, not to menchen Ic eland. If it puts the Uk on a spot of trouble what chance the rest , i think it is relavant, Every body is in for a fall.

Yes, Its totally global. And one will trigger the other.

“Other commodities haven’t gone up yet, such as the grains,” “It may take time until they start to go up substantially but if you have time, you should be long wheat, corn, soya beans or own a farm, which is one way to participate in future food price increases.”

I won’t rule out that gold will go down to US$950 or US$1,000, but I don’t expect more downside.

I don’t see any scenario where gold will collapse.

The euro may rebound to US$1.40 against the US dollar because the currency is currently “oversold” amid concerns over Greece’s deficit, the largest in the European Union.

The region, along with the European Central Bank, will probably “bail out” the country, in turn creating more deficits.

When Greece is bailed out, it’s a further indication that paper money is losing its purchasing power because it’s diluted through larger and larger bailouts and more and more deficits. Now it can rebound to around US$1.40 but more than that, you shouldn’t expect much more than that.

[Frezie]

YIPPEE

Good news for me - I'm going to the UK this month.

Also, when I send money home to my mother, she gets more.

It isn't too bad for the pensioners - it was only 37 baht to the pound when I first came here in 1992.

It might make a few of the undesirable stay away from here, or go back too.

I have read a lot of crass comments on TV but this one takes 1st prize. Do you really have a brain?

[HardenedSoul]

the £ is only Jittering because there could be a hung Parliament, It will return very slowly, The FTS has gone through the 540 barrier, That also is on the rise, After the next election the £ will strengthen.

Utter drivel.

So what if the FTSE's gone through 5400 ??!! The pound is jittering because its debts are nearly 13% of GDP, neither of the main political parties can bring themselves to tell the electorate the sheer scale of the cuts in public services and increases in taxation will be required to shrink the deficit and, furthermore, the central bank has left the door open to more and more quantitative easing. Mark my words, the printing presses will be rolling again sooner than you think.

The significant contribution that the financial sector made to Britain's GDP is unlikely to be revived any time soon thanks to new regulation and Britain doesn't export anywhere near what it needs to in order to redress the balance.

The future's brown, my friends.

[DeepSea]

Billionaire financier Jim Rogers has predicted that the British Pound could completely collapse within weeks, sending shockwaves throughout the global economy and heralding the beginning of a downturn that would make the recent economic crisis look tame in comparison.

I've seen these quotes by Rogers and similarly those by Soros regarding the Euro, but you fail to add that these barracudas are currency speculators who make sh*t loads of cash by lobbing well timed comments to the nervous masses... they should be gagged and locked in a closet.

[britmaveric]

^indeed those that mouth off have dubious motivations.

[Paulo1]

Billionaire financier Jim Rogers has predicted that the British Pound could completely collapse within weeks, sending shockwaves throughout the global economy and heralding the beginning of a downturn that would make the recent economic crisis look tame in comparison.

I've seen these quotes by Rogers and similarly those by Soros regarding the Euro, but you fail to add that these barracudas are currency speculators who make sh*t loads of cash by lobbing well timed comments to the nervous masses... they should be gagged and locked in a closet.

Defined price movement is worth more than market opinions. As a trader, price action and knowing where the market is going you need to know where it has been and look at the Macro Indicators. Soros is long EURO at present. And i entered long at 1.3483.

[Thongkorn]

the £ is only Jittering because there could be a hung Parliament, It will return very slowly, The FTS has gone through the 540 barrier, That also is on the rise, After the next election the £ will strengthen.

Utter drivel.

So what if the FTSE's gone through 5400 ??!! The pound is jittering because its debts are nearly 13% of GDP, neither of the main political parties can bring themselves to tell the electorate the sheer scale of the cuts in public services and increases in taxation will be required to shrink the deficit and, furthermore, the central bank has left the door open to more and more quantitative easing. Mark my words, the printing presses will be rolling again sooner than you think.

The significant contribution that the financial sector made to Britain's GDP is unlikely to be revived any time soon thanks to new regulation and Britain doesn't export anywhere near what it needs to in order to redress the balance.

The future's brown, my friends.

who else is there , the Conservatives put us here, The sold off Britain's state company's , like the Gas, Electric, Water, scrapped the coal industries, got rid of the miners and killed off the docks. even the Waste is owned by France, Yes Brown is the Future, Its Amazing how America followed suit after everybody called Brown for backing Northern Rock.

Edited March 2, 2010 by Thongkorn

[shawndoc]

Right now most US debt is owned by the Chinese.

China doesn't own anywher near "most" of US debt. China holds around 20-25% of US foreign debt, or around 10% of total debt.

Its a large chunk, but nowhere near 50%.

[Frezie]

the £ is only Jittering because there could be a hung Parliament, It will return very slowly, The FTS has gone through the 540 barrier, That also is on the rise, After the next election the £ will strengthen.

It may strengthen but i dought the primary down trend will change.

The stark downturn has led Jim Rogers and Marc Faber to predict a currency crash foreshadowing a full scale global "shakedown".

Billionaire financier Jim Rogers has predicted that the British Pound could completely collapse within weeks, sending shockwaves throughout the global economy and heralding the beginning of a downturn that would make the recent economic crisis look tame in comparison.

"Other currencies aren't strong and the Euro has real problems, with cracks much wider than Greece beginning to show," Rogers said.

"But it's the Pound that's most vulnerable. In real terms, it's already devalued against virtually every currency barring the Zimbabwean dollar and it's especially exposed over the weeks running up to the UK election. In a basket of currencies, the Pound is potentially a basket case. And that will put Britain in an extremely bad position for the shakedown."

"The last few months have seen a 'false bounce', shorn up by massive short-term injections of government underwriting," Rogers, the former business partner of George Soros, said.

This is more than enough for me to hold my bearish bias.

Sorry but isn't it just these sort of "expert" comments that often cause the run on currency values.

[Paulo1]

the £ is only Jittering because there could be a hung Parliament, It will return very slowly, The FTS has gone through the 540 barrier, That also is on the rise, After the next election the £ will strengthen.

It may strengthen but i dought the primary down trend will change.

The stark downturn has led Jim Rogers and Marc Faber to predict a currency crash foreshadowing a full scale global "shakedown".

Billionaire financier Jim Rogers has predicted that the British Pound could completely collapse within weeks, sending shockwaves throughout the global economy and heralding the beginning of a downturn that would make the recent economic crisis look tame in comparison.

"Other currencies aren't strong and the Euro has real problems, with cracks much wider than Greece beginning to show," Rogers said.

"But it's the Pound that's most vulnerable. In real terms, it's already devalued against virtually every currency barring the Zimbabwean dollar and it's especially exposed over the weeks running up to the UK election. In a basket of currencies, the Pound is potentially a basket case. And that will put Britain in an extremely bad position for the shakedown."

"The last few months have seen a 'false bounce', shorn up by massive short-term injections of government underwriting," Rogers, the former business partner of George Soros, said.

This is more than enough for me to hold my bearish bias.

Sorry but isn't it just these sort of "expert" comments that often cause the run on currency values.

Some people would like to believe that. However the fundamentals are in agreement. These comments can be targeted to trigger fear and greed in people. Thats what the market run on. Personaly, I don't get involved. I just trade what I see.

[Thongkorn]

If the billionaire can see the collapse of the pound causing shock waves thought the worlds economy's,Other people can see the same , which would lead to the pound being supported,To stop the shock waves, thereby saving a lot of other currencies that would be dragged down with the pound, if the worlds 5/6 economy cannot stand it what about most of Asia and Europe Africa south America, It would cause a domino affect. so not only the UK would suffer,

[HardenedSoul]

This crisis cannot be averted by any means that are palatable to the British public. By palatable, I mean deep, DEEP cuts in public spending, big, BIG hikes in taxation and a serious drop in living standards for the electorate.

Can you see a Brit factory worker working for the same money as his/her Thai or Vietnamese counterpart ? Didn't think so. Britain cannot compete and the currency is in the water.

[britmaveric]

^no worries the entire world is pretty much in the tank. (sort of evens it out)

[Thongkorn]

This crisis cannot be averted by any means that are palatable to the British public. By palatable, I mean deep, DEEP cuts in public spending, big, BIG hikes in taxation and a serious drop in living standards for the electorate.

Can you see a Brit factory worker working for the same money as his/her Thai or Vietnamese counterpart ? Didn't think so. Britain cannot compete and the currency is in the water.

Does not equate, The Standard of Living is higher thats why the wages are higher , and the taxes.. Britain makes more money out of finance than manual labour ,

[Naam]

If the billionaire can see the collapse of the pound causing shock waves thought the worlds economy's,Other people can see the same , which would lead to the pound being supported,To stop the shock waves, thereby saving a lot of other currencies that would be dragged down with the pound, if the worlds 5/6 economy cannot stand it what about most of Asia and Europe Africa south America, It would cause a domino affect. so not only the UK would suffer,

which currencies would be dragged down with the Pound?

[neil324]

If the billionaire can see the collapse of the pound causing shock waves thought the worlds economy's,Other people can see the same , which would lead to the pound being supported,To stop the shock waves, thereby saving a lot of other currencies that would be dragged down with the pound, if the worlds 5/6 economy cannot stand it what about most of Asia and Europe Africa south America, It would cause a domino affect. so not only the UK would suffer,

which currencies would be dragged down with the Pound?

Contagion?Competitive devaluation?A race to the bottom?

[HerbalEd]

Your post is total rubbish.

Back in the early 90s the cost of living in Thailand was less than a quarter compared with today`s prices and Thai bank interest rates reached a high of 13%. Plus only 150000 baht was required for a one year Non Immigrant visa.

.

While I agree things are more expensive in Thailand ... and the world at large ... today than in '90s. It definitely is not ... as you state ... four times as expensive.

[Spee]

Thailand is not nearly as cheap as people think imo.

Especially if the exchange rates continue to drop... its not so bad if you can get 70b to the pound, but at 50b to the pound suddenly Thailand is expensive... for almost everything!

Tell me about it! I built my house at about 70ThB/GBP. It wouldn't be possible now at 1/3 less the value. Even today, trying to cover food and expenses for 7-8 people, with a weak dollar vs. the baht, it ain't cheap. Rice, telephone, TV and diesel are expensive.

[Naam]

If the billionaire can see the collapse of the pound causing shock waves thought the worlds economy's,Other people can see the same , which would lead to the pound being supported,To stop the shock waves, thereby saving a lot of other currencies that would be dragged down with the pound, if the worlds 5/6 economy cannot stand it what about most of Asia and Europe Africa south America, It would cause a domino affect. so not only the UK would suffer,

which currencies would be dragged down with the Pound?

Contagion?Competitive devaluation?A race to the bottom?

none of it valid! the same goes for the ridiculous assumption that the Pound could drag other currencies down. all based on the well known wishful thinking of those TV-members who hurt because the currency of their income has fallen vs. THB.

[ourmanflint]

This crisis cannot be averted by any means that are palatable to the British public. By palatable, I mean deep, DEEP cuts in public spending, big, BIG hikes in taxation and a serious drop in living standards for the electorate.

..snip

What about a 1% rise in interest rates? Problem solved, tons of propped up homeowners go to the wall, normality returns, whatever that is.

[gharknes]

I think the government is keeping the baht strong so the politicians can discretely move their ill gotten baht out of the country at a favorable exchange rate before an election is called. Once Thaksin and company return to power vengeance will be unleashed and many an elite will be doing a Thaksin by living in Dubai.

The Baht IS NOT STRONG! The other major currencies are weak. The situation for those of us out here is nothing to do with the Thai government maintaining a strong Baht.

currency is a relative thing, the thai baht is strong weak compared to what lol, it really depends on where it is in the big picture, and of course what your version of the big picture, compared to US dollar - euro - sterling the baht is strong

[davidrkw]

The pound recent falls are due to uncertainty surrounding the UK election. As

long as any new government shows willingness to tackle the fiscal deficit, the

pound should recover. The Baht is no longer exclusively pegged to the dollar, as

was the case in the early '90s so a strengthening dollar does not effect the

Baht as it once did. UK interest rate are at .5%, once the UK is growing again,

the rates will increase and the pound will strengthen. It may well drop to 45

in the near term but I would expect something closer to 60 by the start of

2011. Long term, the Dollar is expected to fall (some predicting gold to hit

$5,000 per oz) and the whole idea that you can have a single currency

without political union is now in doubt (the Euro may cease to exist).

[Abrak]

The pound recent falls are due to uncertainty surrounding the UK election. As

long as any new government shows willingness to tackle the fiscal deficit, the

pound should recover. The Baht is no longer exclusively pegged to the dollar, as

was the case in the early '90s so a strengthening dollar does not effect the

Baht as it once did. UK interest rate are at .5%, once the UK is growing again,

the rates will increase and the pound will strengthen. It may well drop to 45

in the near term but I would expect something closer to 60 by the start of

2011. Long term, the Dollar is expected to fall (some predicting gold to hit

$5,000 per oz) and the whole idea that you can have a single currency

without political union is now in doubt (the Euro may cease to exist).

Thanks for clearing everything up.

I was beginning to think that things were looking increasingly uncertain.

Some of it I still find a bit confusing. A strong dollar does not effect the baht as it once did? The guy next to the ATM I use keeps telling me the baht is stronger than a strong dollar. But he could easily be mistaken as I suspect he drinks a lot of meths.

[rayong09]

^^

[chiang mai]

Indeed, but perhaps the simplest way to understand his words is to ask yourself, what would you expect the Head of FX at the UK's largest bank to say when asked to comment on the strength of the banks home currency, this is the same bank by the way where the British Chairman just left to live in Hong Kong.

CM - you make a sweeping statement without substantiating FACTS !

Geoghegan moved to Hong Kong to support the published strategy of putting resource into the geographical area that was peforming strongest. The group chairman remain sin London.

Story here http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/se...ocate-hong-kong

Oh my goodness, I meant to say Chief Exec, I'll have myself taken out and shot immediately, it's simply not acceptable to make such an error, grovel, grovel ...