Thaksin's Last Chance

[webfact]

WEEKEND MASS RALLIES

Thaksin's last chance

By Tulsathit Taptim

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- More than ever now, Thaksin Shinawatra needs the rural poor to bail him out.

Yesterday's quiet showing by his red-shirted supporters based in Bangkok and its surburbs was downplayed as a calm before a real storm, but whether that's true or not, their provincial counterparts have to produce nothing short of a hurricane in the next couple of days.

He could take heart in the fact that red tides were streaming into Nakhon Sawan last night from upper North.

The meeting point, rally organizers hope, would be flooded with more than 100,000 people before dawn, making the last stretch of the journey to Bangkok one of the historic political moments.

Thaksin knows better than anyone that this particular red campaign can't end with a whimper.

While there can be plenty of excuses for the low turnouts at rendez vous spots around Bangkok yesterday, he can't afford to be seen as being abandoned by the rural poor during arguably his darkest hours.

No more court case coming up. Pheu Thai, his virtual political party, is facing no dissolution threats. If Thaksin can't turn the asset seizure ruling into a groundswell of sympathy now, the only chance for a "red upheaval" will be lost forever.

According to police, only 6,500 protesters gathered yesterday at various spots around Bangkok, far below the initial target of 10,000 people at each gathering point.

A lot of factors may contribute to the low turnout _ hot weather, limited financial supplies, the "no-violence" campaigns, the widespread fear of violence as well as the seemingly poor coordination among the organizers.

Rivals of the red shirts claimed there were other reasons as well. They said news that Thaksin's family members and close relatives were leaving Thailand during this time left a bad taste in his followers' mouths.

Some red sympathizers might have also felt reluctant to join a "pro-democracy" rally that took place only days after the Supreme Court seized his "ill-gotten" money.

"If you are red members you can get somewhat confused," said Suriyasai Katasila, a yellow-shirted leader.

This is not to say, however, that most red shirts would renounce a campaign to retrieve Thaksin's money.

It's only that protest organisers' reluctance to associate the rally with Thaksin's confiscated wealth has left them with the less attractive, or even boring, cause of overthrowing an illegitimate Democrat government.

That the "three buddies", as the three red shirt leaders are called, spent most of yesterday appearing on red cable TV discussing same old issues raised eye-brows.

They offered no good explanation why they were not leading the crowds on the first day of the rally, only saying yesterday was just a "prelude" and the reds' real force would be seen at the weekend.

It seemed everyone was pinning his hope on the rural poor to weave their political magic and save Thaksin.

News reports from the province showed lively preparations in various northern and northeastern provinces, but along with that also came a setback, as a group of red supporters were caught on camera receiving payment from those who looked like organizers.

Whether or not the apparent scandal was an exception or a rule didn't matter as far as Thaksin was concerned. He has to do whatever it takes to make sure the red rally creates a big impact at least in terms of numbers.

This desperate situation has prompted fears that if the red shirts could not form a mass big enough, chances of "statement through violence" may increase.

Considering the fast-growing "peace" movement in the city and the government's preparations, a repeat of last year's Songkran turbulence seems unlikely, at least for now.

To bounce back from the court setback, Thaksin will need pure power of the poor to relaunch himself.

The irony of it is not even the fact that he remains one of Thailand's richest men, but the red shirted leaders' description of this campaign as one to expose a yawning gap between Thailand's Haves and Have-nots.

-- The Nation 2010-03-13

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

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[tominbkk]

This is like his 3rd 'last chance' already. It's like a final Eagles tour. With the estimated 400 Billion ++ Thaksin has hidden abroad, there is enough funding for many many more demonstrations and thuggery.

Edited March 13, 2010 by webfact
to reflect the proper name //WF

[givenall]

This is like his 3rd 'last chance' already. It's like a final Eagles tour. With the estimated 400 Billion ++ Thaksin has hidden abroad, there is enough funding for many many more demonstrations and thuggery.

Last chance?

He never had any chances at all

He is just an stupid and a corrupt and arrogant man who that he is loved by everyone now and before.

[khunjamespittman]

I would hardly call the Nation's reporting factual or even unbiased. It would certainly be refreshing if The Nation hired professional journalists. They do a disservice to the profession and certainly are providing little more thant "I think" journalism.

What ever happened to factual reporting that allows the readers and viewers to make up their own minds?

Really a sad statement for legitimate journalists.

[Donnyboy]

This is like his 3rd 'last chance' already. It's like a final Eagles tour. With the estimated 400 Billion ++ Thaksin has hidden abroad, there is enough funding for many many more demonstrations and thuggery.

but this gathering will gauge his support from the masses that swept him into power of the days of old,

you would have to think that if this weekends event is a flop, he will finally call it quits, heres hoping anyway

[khunjamespittman]

This is like his 3rd 'last chance' already. It's like a final Eagles tour. With the estimated 400 Billion ++ Thaksin has hidden abroad, there is enough funding for many many more demonstrations and thuggery.

but this gathering will gauge his support from the masses that swept him into power of the days of old,

you would have to think that if this weekends event is a flop, he will finally call it quits, heres hoping anyway

That as fair statement but unfortunately focuses on Thaksin instead of equal and fair access to government for all Thais.

The real question is "If the event is a flop (defined by many as record crowds), will the Thais who seeks equality disappear or will Thailand evolve to strive to include all Thais in the future development of their country?"

We don't yet know the outcome of the event nor do we know the impact it will have on the future of Thailand.

We should all hope that we will all learn from this experience and hope it leads Thailand in a peaceful and prosperous direction.

[eggomaniac]

This is like his 3rd 'last chance' already. It's like a final Eagles tour. With the estimated 400 Billion ++ Thaksin has hidden abroad, there is enough funding for many many more demonstrations and thuggery.

but this gathering will gauge his support from the masses that swept him into power of the days of old,

you would have to think that if this weekends event is a flop, he will finally call it quits, heres hoping anyway

That as fair statement but unfortunately focuses on Thaksin instead of equal and fair access to government for all Thais.

The real question is "If the event is a flop (defined by many as record crowds), will the Thais who seeks equality disappear or will Thailand evolve to strive to include all Thais in the future development of their country?"

We don't yet know the outcome of the event nor do we know the impact it will have on the future of Thailand.

We should all hope that we will all learn from this experience and hope it leads Thailand in a peaceful and prosperous direction.

Even if Thaksin's jet crashed into ocean, Thailand is set for 100 years like the past 80. Instability, uprising, they are not as quick at military rule, nowadays, but that too

The whole political structure is devoid of workmanship.

You will see new crocodiles, but the same old swamp, even after what was his name???

[gotlost]

If he is relying on the rural poor that I know he has NO CHANCE.

Edited March 13, 2010 by gotlost

[tackyshoots]

I would hardly call the Nation's reporting factual or even unbiased. It would certainly be refreshing if The Nation hired professional journalists. They do a disservice to the profession and certainly are providing little more thant "I think" journalism.

What ever happened to factual reporting that allows the readers and viewers to make up their own minds?

Really a sad statement for legitimate journalists.

Couldn't Agree more!

[slapout]

The estimated 400 billion abroad, figure is massive. Puts him up there in the Slim/Gates class. Where did this number come from, when. and what collaboration is there? This number, if realistic would set a new goal for the shysters of the world.

[slapout]

Just to clarify, I was thinking of the time frame from declaration of assets to this estimate of worth. Furthermore I would not even compare the integrity of Gates/Slim to the referenced individual. Reference last sentence.

[LomSak27]

Thaksins Last Chance?

Not when the Dems need him every bit as much as the Reds do.

[mgncu]

Red-shirt supporter bribery !

ex pm Thaksin is making a film about democracy in Thailand

and this is his idea only. How can the Thai people seriously

believe in a movie. He is paying for people to take action in

the streets acting as supporters in order to take photos and

films. Should anyone use these films and photos to take real

actions against the Thai Government. Those persons should

be charged bribery because in reality those people received

money to act against the Thai Government in order to show

that the Thai people support Thaksin. This is the same that in

a court case a defendant paid witness to give statements

to support the defendant as innocent in order to win the case

against a guilty verdict to be charged of a crime by the court.

HOW CAN THE GENERAL THAI PEOPLE CAN BE

SERIOULY ACCEPTED THIS WHOLE ACTION SET

UP BY THAKSIN !

[beejoir]

He missed his chance, he should have came back on the first rally and poured his $$$ into it and not Manchester fuc_king City!

[Flatouthruthefog]

I would hardly call the Nation's reporting factual or even unbiased. It would certainly be refreshing if The Nation hired professional journalists. They do a disservice to the profession and certainly are providing little more thant "I think" journalism.

What ever happened to factual reporting that allows the readers and viewers to make up their own minds?

Really a sad statement for legitimate journalists.

Couldn't Agree more!

The 'Chiang Mai Mail' has just won an award for the best English language newspaper in Chiang Mai. In case you don't know, it is the ONLY English language newspaper in Chiang Mai.

I look forward to 'The Nation' awarding itself 'Second Best Newspaper in Bangkok' any day now. Welcome to Thailand.

[anotherpeter]

I would hardly call the Nation's reporting factual or even unbiased. It would certainly be refreshing if The Nation hired professional journalists. They do a disservice to the profession and certainly are providing little more thant "I think" journalism.

What ever happened to factual reporting that allows the readers and viewers to make up their own minds?

Really a sad statement for legitimate journalists.

Khun James ... I would have to agree with you on that ... (ok, get up off the floor now).

I agree with a lot of what they say, but 95% are opinion pieces or sensationalist rumours ... hardly "news".

EDIT: Just read this in the nation, re: Songkran riots -

On April 13, extremist members of the Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship (DAAD) lit fires, set up road blocks and commandeered gas tanker trucks, disrupting the lives of a lot of people especially around the Nang Lerng community and the tenement estate in Din Daeng. The result was two people got sacrificed, many people were wounded and everybody was scared because of the violence.

Basically correct, but did they really need to use "sacrificed"??

Edited March 13, 2010 by anotherpeter

[animatic]

More like Thaksins Last Stand at the little big horde,

but in this case the reds will lose,

and Thaksin confused which side he was on...

Sad point is; even if this goes very badly,

he doesn't seem stable enough to understand

when his cause is well and truly LOST.

Thaksins cash? I would guess lop off one zero to 40 billion,

and that's what he spirited out of the country over the years,

but he also lost big in his external investments recently. Even he admitted that,

and lets see how he fairs with those Russian loans....

Seems he is no better at reading the tea leaves than many, and as bad as most.

Certainly he was too busy trying to jigger the constitution with PPP in fall 2008

to even notice, the financial world imploding around him. Certainly he did

NOTHING to direct PPP to lessen the coming fall for the nation, even as they STILL were the government.

It was left to Abhisit and Korn to salvage the mess PPP left, and they have done a surprisingly good job of it.

So really Thaksins last chance was with Somchai to save the kingdom from penury,

or even RECOGNIZE the fall of the international banking system was coming.

Korn was speaking of this in the papers and being soundly ignored.

LAst chance long past, he's just to egotistical to realize he is already dead in the water.

Not able to ever win the brass ring again, but he can bring the merry go round to a halt pending repairs.

Nothing more.

[granuaile]

...

It was left to Abhisit and Korn to salvage the mess PPP left, and they have done a surprisingly good job of it.

...

I agree,... I was rather neutral vis-a-vis P.M. Abhisit at first, but he has tackled running the country even-handedly and with fair-mindedness. I applaud him. And if the government is forced to take extreme measures in the coming days I hope that the world sees that he did not do so without reason.

Granuaile

[waza]

Hmmm good post, I agree.

[ballpoint]

We've seen the last of him more times than the crazy warehouse clearance sale guy. "Last chance to buy, everything must go, it can't last, walking out the door..." and he pops up again as if nothing happened and starts over. And each time he manages to get enough hired help to make a serious threat. About time someone closed him down and locked the door for good.

[ding]

The estimated 400 billion abroad, figure is massive. Puts him up there in the Slim/Gates class. Where did this number come from, when. and what collaboration is there? This number, if realistic would set a new goal for the shysters of the world.

Forbes estimates he's at aprox. $2.2 Billion so that must put him well below 400 wealthiest.

[FunkyGuru]

I am on a pathetically slow connection so did not bother to quote. Still I will mention some.

Agree: There is no Chance for Mr T.

Agree: Abhisit did a good job. Pretty good I must say.

Agree: Egoistic, arrogant maniac, yes that is what Mr T is.

What baffles me is the inability of people to see the obvious signs. I wonder how people make up their opinions. Based on what information(little) is available? based on their own independent analysis? based on media reporting? I mean in lack of any credible information, isn't is just the word of the village chief or community elder taken as absolute truth?

Elsewhere, on forum, someone has very well pointed out, for those supporters of T. Has anyone really seen for real, those claims of hospital in every district and so on. Another comment on people were simply poor and now they are poor and indebted due to that access to easy loans. Did all that loan go to legit purposes or it was simply to buy a motorbike and tv at home? I know for fact that people are paid to join his rally. Well any rally in that case. However his rallies are better paying.

A friend called me and mentioned that people around his neighborhood, were offered TB 1200 to join this rally. For many of them, TB 1200 is a big amount and they willingly took the offer and are on their way to Bangkok. None of them have any clue what so ever about the rally. Why it is being organized and all that. They don't even understand what is democracy nor do they know their right and obligation to vote. They follow their leader, more like tribes headman, and thats about it.

Yes there is no chance to Mr. T

If he, at all, was genuine to his country, honestly believed that he is innocent, then he would have faced the charges, trusted the courts and accepted the verdict. Instead, he runs away. In a mad mans attempt to save his fortune, he even went to a moral low of instigating the poor and generating sympathy. Stealing meals from their plate and asking for sympathy? Disgusting.

Well, keep watching and see what unfolds. I have been told that many a tourists have canceled their bookings and arrivals to this country. My friends in tourism business are worried of the long term impact this instability will have.

Wish and pray for better times for this country.

[pooket]

This is like his 3rd 'last chance' already. It's like a final Eagles tour. With the estimated 400 Billion ++ Thaksin has hidden abroad, there is enough funding for many many more demonstrations and thuggery.

but this gathering will gauge his support from the masses that swept him into power of the days of old,

you would have to think that if this weekends event is a flop, he will finally call it quits, heres hoping anyway

Here's the problem - define "support". I've lived here for over five years and everything I've ever heard says his "support" is paid for by him. As long as he has access to large amounts of cash, his "support" will never die...

[Moonrakers]

Bangkok Post: According to Thai FM, UAE officials have confirmed that Thaksin has been asked to leave Dubai for having used the country as political base

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Bangkok-Red-...ml#entry3410662

Well, that's a bit of a kick in the teeth for Thaksin then (If true)

[dude007]

I would hardly call the Nation's reporting factual or even unbiased. It would certainly be refreshing if The Nation hired professional journalists. They do a disservice to the profession and certainly are providing little more thant "I think" journalism.

What ever happened to factual reporting that allows the readers and viewers to make up their own minds?

Really a sad statement for legitimate journalists.

This depends on which side you are. But I agree: it's once again poor journalism...

[Insight]

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Bangkok-Red-...ml#entry3410662

Well, that's a bit of a kick in the teeth for Thaksin then (If true)

Wish I could believe it about Thaksin given the boot from the UAE, but I think the scoring between reds claiming last red march ever and govt sources claiming Thaksin has been booted are pretty equal (and will probably remain this way until the end of time).

[animatic]

Bangkok Post: According to Thai FM, UAE officials have confirmed that Thaksin has been asked to leave Dubai for having used the country as political base

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Bangkok-Red-...ml#entry3410662

Well, that's a bit of a kick in the teeth for Thaksin then (If true)

Like most everything else coming out of his mouth,

no doubt those teeth are fake too!

[neverdie]

The estimated 400 billion abroad, figure is massive. Puts him up there in the Slim/Gates class. Where did this number come from, when. and what collaboration is there? This number, if realistic would set a new goal for the shysters of the world.

Forbes estimates he's at aprox. $2.2 Billion so that must put him well below 400 wealthiest.

Poor bugger, where can we go to donate money to him?

[gemini81]

The estimated 400 billion abroad, figure is massive. Puts him up there in the Slim/Gates class. Where did this number come from, when. and what collaboration is there? This number, if realistic would set a new goal for the shysters of the world.

Forbes estimates he's at aprox. $2.2 Billion so that must put him well below 400 wealthiest.

forbes doesn't have access to his offshore savings accounts. think of just the frozen amount he had in england. then consider singapore, dubai and even his swiss accounts..then the money his family has in their names. it really adds up.

he hasn't been bumped off like a lot of other political leaders, so he must have some serious dough floating about out there.

[Gary A]

Red shirts and yellow shirts? I just hope this debacle ends without major violence. Both the red and yellow sides lost any sympathy I may have had for their causes by blocking traffic and generally costing the economy big baht. Closing the airport was the worst thing they could have done. Apparently the government still owes the yellow mob because there have been no prosecutions for the airport terrorism and likely won't be.

I would hope that when the "Get Thaksin" government effort wears off they can tackle the drug problem and concentrate on the growing violence in the south of the country. Scheduling the next election would likely do wonders to appease the people. Not that the next government will be any better because the vast majority of the existing politicians are hopelessly corrupt.