Spreaders of Conspiracy Theories: Unmasking the Motivations Behind the Lies

[Chaimai]

I have resurrected this topic originally started by 12Drinkmore.

I believe that it is very much Thailand related because the outcome of the UK election is likely to significantly influence the GBP/THB exchange rate, will impact on pensions and other assets that ex-pats rely on to support their lifestyle in Thailand.

If mods think otherwise, they may wish to consider closing the Financial Crisis thread which started with a post about the UK and is 75% relate to the USA.

[chiang mai]

I agree, I think it's entirely relevant to Thailand in respect of exchange rates and the number of UK ex-pats likely to remain in Thailand as a result.

On that note, a half way decent article on the future of Sterling:

http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/e...ling-01103.aspx

Edited March 15, 2010 by chiang mai

[RAZZELL]

Personally, I'm interested in what "fantasy economics" Darling come's out with in his next Budget on the 24th March

But with regard's to the election....

If the Tories get in the pound should bounce....a little.

If Labour....god help us!

RAZZ

[12DrinkMore]

But with regard's to the election....

If the Tories get in the pound should bounce....a little.

If Labour....god help us!

I am not convinced that either party is good for the GBP.

If Brown gets in, then it will be spend spend spend with low interest rates to provide the "stimulus".

If Cameron gets in he MIGHT cut the spending but interest rates will be kept low. They cannot be raised because all the dam_n debtors will start to default on the massive loans they have taken to buy property, the property market would sink too rapidly giving the banks another big balance sheet problem, and the higher interest payments will suck money out of consumer spending.

But unfortunately for us both parties will favour a feeble GBP, in an attempt to boost exports, tourism and inflation.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...SKJ_k&pos=8

In spite of Brown's massive mess, this is really too close to call. And I am beginning to suspect that the UK will vote for the "devil we know" rather than the uninspiring ones we don't.

[whichschool]

Im from an area where you would expect someone to say "im voting labour, ive voted labour all my life just as my father did, and his father before him, i'll vote labour until the day i die" (to which id reply "hurry up then") ... however this breed seems to be vanishing in favour of supporting the BNP or not voting.

Im going for the obvious in predicting a Tory victory, but also a result that starts to spell the end of the Labour party, a once worthy party thats been hijacked by politically correct middle class champagne socialists who arent bright enough for the Torys.

Doubt the Torys will be great for Britain but the markets trust them more and the pound will rise on the back of it.

Edited March 15, 2010 by whichschool

[Jonathanpattaya]

It is looking like a hung Parliament.

Bad news for the GBP/THB exchange rate.

P.S. XE Universal Currency Converter showing 1 GBP = 49 THB.

Edited March 16, 2010 by Jonathanpattaya

[PattayaParent]

Im from an area where you would expect someone to say "im voting labour, ive voted labour all my life just as my father did, and his father before him, i'll vote labour until the day i die" (to which id reply "hurry up then") ... however this breed seems to be vanishing in favour of supporting the BNP or not voting.

Im going for the obvious in predicting a Tory victory, but also a result that starts to spell the end of the Labour party, a once worthy party thats been hijacked by politically correct middle class champagne socialists who arent bright enough for the Torys.

Doubt the Torys will be great for Britain but the markets trust them more and the pound will rise on the back of it.

Gotta agree, once they disowned Ken Livingstone, Derek hatton and the sadly departed Michael Foot in favour of closet tories it was the death knell of Real labour.

[chiang mai]

There's a big push downwards on GBP/USD right now, Sterling is down over two cents today and it's going down almost vertically - I was looking for some new bad news but I can't see anything significant, it must just be the markets making a push lower, don't know. The EU had a go at Britain for not doing enough to cut its budget and Moody's is warning of civil unrest if the triple AA ratings are cut, civil unrest, maybe that's what it takes to make government better understand that folks aint at all happy.

Edited March 16, 2010 by chiang mai

[neil324]

Tory win should be positive for Sterling, maybe provide a bounce and a chance to get out before falling again.

A Labour win or hung pariliment will be negative for Sterling, the Lib dems have already said they want no cut's and will side with Labour. How much it falls, who knows.

The best indicator's are the bookie's, current odd's are;

Tory win 8/13

Hung 13/8

Labour win 4/1

Seems to me only 2 likely outcome's and it's to close to call.

The budget next week is likely to be negative for Sterling, maybe even create a run on the pound, which would in my view guarantee a Tory election win.

[chiang mai]

Tory win should be positive for Sterling, maybe provide a bounce and a chance to get out before falling again.

A Labour win or hung pariliment will be negative for Sterling, the Lib dems have already said they want no cut's and will side with Labour. How much it falls, who knows.

The best indicator's are the bookie's, current odd's are;

Tory win 8/13

Hung 13/8

Labour win 4/1

Seems to me only 2 likely outcome's and it's to close to call.

The budget next week is likely to be negative for Sterling, maybe even create a run on the pound, which would in my view guarantee a Tory election win.

Interesting odds, I agree the bookies have usually got a good perspective on these things - Sterling just seems so volatile right now, even the smallest bit of bad news and it plunges two or three cents against the Dollar, then somebody issues a rebuttal and it swings back two cents, it's going to be a real roller coaster ride it seems. Interestingly though, I was reading a series of brokerage reports a few days ago and they all seemed to agree that Sterling could do any one of a number of different things over the next few weeks, but it was unanimously agreed that GBP would be around 1.90 to USD by year end! That scenario is based on the UK sorting out its politics by end third quarter, including the possibility of a second general election and a fall in the value of USD before the fourth quarter, interesting.

[roamer]

A couple of points.

I think most people agree that a hung parliament might be the worst of all the results for sterling. And certainly a lot of people think that a Conservative govt might be the best result. Beg to differ. Even the most optimistic projections would only bring in a very small Tory majority and I don't think its generally recognized that the Tories are probably more divided than at any time in recent history, the divisions might not be heard much now but they are very fundamental and will get very loud. The "Cornerstone" group of around 40 red meat Tories are certainly miles divorced from Camerons touchy feely policies and will certainly constrain his ability to "modernise".

Its often stated that the Tories are regarded as a safer pair of hands by the markets, well not with George Osbourne as Chancellor they are not, he recently came bottom of a confidence poll in the city and is regarded as a lightweight in Europe. True there is Ken Clarke, who came top of that same poll, totally and completely unacceptable to many in the Tory party who would resign rather than see him get the job.

A Labour win ? Well have to say I think they would face less internal difficulties in most respects and would probably be able to pass the cuts more easily, only of course if they chose to do so.

IMHO the prospects of a more favorable sterling/baht exchange rate may well depend on events in Thailand rather than the UK.

The only polls I'm going to give any credence to will be exit polls. Given our current electoral map and the system we operate under they are next to useless.

[12DrinkMore]

There's a big push downwards on GBP/USD right now, Sterling is down over two cents today and it's going down almost vertically - I was looking for some new bad news but I can't see anything significant, it must just be the markets making a push lower, don't know. The EU had a go at Britain for not doing enough to cut its budget and Moody's is warning of civil unrest if the triple AA ratings are cut, civil unrest, maybe that's what it takes to make government better understand that folks aint at all happy.

The GBP/USD is currently at 1.519 on xe.com. This is not a two cent drop unless I have had too many beers. In fact it has spurred me to sell a few more GBPs, but whether this is a good decision or not I don't know.

Civil unrest in the UK will not occur because of some foreign rating agency. The majority of the UK population do not even know about ratings unless it is about the TV. In fact, the only thing which would stir Joe UK from his sofa is bladder pressure or loss of the world cup coverage.

[12DrinkMore]

but it was unanimously agreed that GBP would be around 1.90 to USD by year end!

Must have been all out on the piss together

:D :D

[whichschool]

Think somethings wrong when the 10 people or so who have contributed to the post arent arguing and bickering on here about UK politics and what the best outcome is, seems a unanimous acceptance that no party is that different from the other too make a major difference.

Maybe its a reflection that the Brits have given up when it comes to elections.

[roamer]

Think somethings wrong when the 10 people or so who have contributed to the post arent arguing and bickering on here about UK politics and what the best outcome is, seems a unanimous acceptance that no party is that different from the other too make a major difference.

Maybe its a reflection that the Brits have given up when it comes to elections.

"Whichschool" your so right. And your name will play a prominent part in the Election. My daughter goes sailing and on Sunday whilst watching I was chatting with another parent who happens to be a well known political correspondent, he was mulling over how many votes David Cameron's front bench is going to cost him. I asked why as they didn't seem to be any more inept than the usual crowd, his reply, "Their not, but 15 out of the 18 buggers all went to Eton, wait till Labour start focusing on that!"

Me thinks he has a point.

Edited March 16, 2010 by roamer

[chiang mai]

There's a big push downwards on GBP/USD right now, Sterling is down over two cents today and it's going down almost vertically - I was looking for some new bad news but I can't see anything significant, it must just be the markets making a push lower, don't know. The EU had a go at Britain for not doing enough to cut its budget and Moody's is warning of civil unrest if the triple AA ratings are cut, civil unrest, maybe that's what it takes to make government better understand that folks aint at all happy.

The GBP/USD is currently at 1.519 on xe.com. This is not a two cent drop unless I have had too many beers. In fact it has spurred me to sell a few more GBPs, but whether this is a good decision or not I don't know.

Civil unrest in the UK will not occur because of some foreign rating agency. The majority of the UK population do not even know about ratings unless it is about the TV. In fact, the only thing which would stir Joe UK from his sofa is bladder pressure or loss of the world cup coverage.

As I said subsequently, this demonstrates the current volatility of GBP/USD, when I posted the pair was at 1.49 and yet a few hours later they're at 1.51, this morning they're at 1.5225 and markets at saying they will go higher on the back of the BOE report today, this is real gambling territory.

[chiang mai]

but it was unanimously agreed that GBP would be around 1.90 to USD by year end!

Must have been all out on the piss together

:D :D

Did you see the article below, inflation means increased bank rates which equals a stronger Pound, not a totally absurd notion that the Pound could strengthen before year end, especially against a weakening USD.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/pro...icle7063221.ece

[12DrinkMore]

Did you see the article below, inflation means increased bank rates which equals a stronger Pound, not a totally absurd notion that the Pound could strengthen before year end, especially against a weakening USD.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/pro...icle7063221.ece

The article refers to the rents increasing. The UK property market is priced far too high, people are spending too much on rents and housing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...24lw4&pos=5

Is a more general article about inflation and indicates that upward pressure is not great, even after the massive devaluation. Importantly the public's expectation is

For the moment, consumers’ expectations on inflation are “reasonably well anchored” around the bank’s target of 2 percent, Bean said. The economy may still face headwinds amid “question marks” about the pace of recovery in the U.K.’s export markets.

The government is trying to support asset prices through low interest rates so that the debts are being paid off and not defaulted on, and stimulate some sort of recovery. Higher interest rates will make these goals more difficult. With three million unemployed there is also little upward pressure on wages.

But here's a boost for Brown. It has also caused the GBP to gain a bit.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aHIbw865EI1A

U.K. jobless claims unexpectedly fell in February at the fastest pace since 1997, suggesting the economic recovery is strengthening as Britons prepare for a general election within weeks.

This race is not over by any means.

[Rob5060]

Think somethings wrong when the 10 people or so who have contributed to the post arent arguing and bickering on here about UK politics and what the best outcome is, seems a unanimous acceptance that no party is that different from the other too make a major difference.

Maybe its a reflection that the Brits have given up when it comes to elections.

"Whichschool" your so right. And your name will play a prominent part in the Election. My daughter goes sailing and on Sunday whilst watching I was chatting with another parent who happens to be a well known political correspondent, he was mulling over how many votes David Cameron's front bench is going to cost him. I asked why as they didn't seem to be any more inept than the usual crowd, his reply, "Their not, but 15 out of the 18 buggers all went to Eton, wait till Labour start focusing on that!"

Me thinks he has a point.

Why is there such hatred for people who were lucky to go to the best schools/universities

When going to see an NHS specialist, etc. any knowledge of a priveleged education / posh accent seems acceptable and maybe more truted

[whichschool]

Think somethings wrong when the 10 people or so who have contributed to the post arent arguing and bickering on here about UK politics and what the best outcome is, seems a unanimous acceptance that no party is that different from the other too make a major difference.

Maybe its a reflection that the Brits have given up when it comes to elections.

"Whichschool" your so right. And your name will play a prominent part in the Election. My daughter goes sailing and on Sunday whilst watching I was chatting with another parent who happens to be a well known political correspondent, he was mulling over how many votes David Cameron's front bench is going to cost him. I asked why as they didn't seem to be any more inept than the usual crowd, his reply, "Their not, but 15 out of the 18 buggers all went to Eton, wait till Labour start focusing on that!"

Me thinks he has a point.

Why is there such hatred for people who were lucky to go to the best schools/universities

When going to see an NHS specialist, etc. any knowledge of a priveleged education / posh accent seems acceptable and maybe more truted

Labour have already tried this tactic and it didnt work as th public know Labour charlatan MP's would love to have gone there and are more then likely sending their own kids to similar privelled schools, imho the people wouldnt care where the government went to school so long as they were the best .... but it does seem pretty far fetched that the best people to run the country are all mates from the same school .... On a different note t highlights how bad the English education system is when most doctors went to a private school, a meritocracy my ass.

[12DrinkMore]

Another bit of positive news for Brown to boast about

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...N5RRo&pos=6

Britain had a smaller budget deficit in February than economists forecast as tax income climbed at the fastest pace in almost two years, adding to evidence that the economic recovery is strengthening.

Up until around a month ago I was totally against this man and I still am.

But it seems like the stars are aligning themselves favourably. Last year he would not have had a snowball's chance in Bangkok (have to give a Thai reference, otherwise the mods will kick us out again...).

Now, after looking over the Tory lot, I am starting to wonder whether Brown is, after all, the man to fix the problems he created. The Tories simply do not inspire me at all, at least Brown has well over a decade of experience to bring to the table.

Edited March 18, 2010 by 12DrinkMore

[whichschool]

^^^^

Be like going back to a unlicensed doctor at a Thai hospital after a botched operation and hoping for him to fix it.

The man is seriously mentally ill, and he still thinks that a non stop rising property market where hardworking soles are working to fund those who have a good credit rating thats enabled them to purchase many properties is somehow a way to run an economy, and more so a decent society. Where hard work is now rewarded with a lifetime renting some place made unaffodable by banks who wont lend enough to these people to buy a house anymore, but where they will be paying extra taxes to fund previous bizarre lending practices.

He's had 14 years to ruin the economy and Sterling and thats all he has done.

[neil324]

^^^^

Be like going back to a unlicensed doctor at a Thai hospital after a botched operation and hoping for him to fix it.

The man is seriously mentally ill, and he still thinks that a non stop rising property market where hardworking soles are working to fund those who have a good credit rating thats enabled them to purchase many properties is somehow a way to run an economy, and more so a decent society. Where hard work is now rewarded with a lifetime renting some place made unaffodable by banks who wont lend enough to these people to buy a house anymore, but where they will be paying extra taxes to fund previous bizarre lending practices.

He's had 14 years to ruin the economy and Sterling and thats all he has done.

Got to agree, the man's is insane, if he get's voted in, the people deserve what they get.

I wonder why he removed housing costs from the CPI basket in 2003 and put into RPI, that's right because the BOE target CPI with interest rates.

What's the betting any short fall in this years 'projected' deficit get's spunked next week.

[roamer]

Think somethings wrong when the 10 people or so who have contributed to the post arent arguing and bickering on here about UK politics and what the best outcome is, seems a unanimous acceptance that no party is that different from the other too make a major difference.

Maybe its a reflection that the Brits have given up when it comes to elections.

"Whichschool" your so right. And your name will play a prominent part in the Election. My daughter goes sailing and on Sunday whilst watching I was chatting with another parent who happens to be a well known political correspondent, he was mulling over how many votes David Cameron's front bench is going to cost him. I asked why as they didn't seem to be any more inept than the usual crowd, his reply, "Their not, but 15 out of the 18 buggers all went to Eton, wait till Labour start focusing on that!"

Me thinks he has a point.

Why is there such hatred for people who were lucky to go to the best schools/universities

When going to see an NHS specialist, etc. any knowledge of a priveleged education / posh accent seems acceptable and maybe more truted

Labour have already tried this tactic and it didnt work as th public know Labour charlatan MP's would love to have gone there and are more then likely sending their own kids to similar privelled schools, imho the people wouldnt care where the government went to school so long as they were the best .... but it does seem pretty far fetched that the best people to run the country are all mates from the same school .... On a different note t highlights how bad the English education system is when most doctors went to a private school, a meritocracy my ass.

Its nothing to do with hatred. Its to do with the fact that the front bench is not only completely non-representative of the people, its also completely unrepresentative of the Tory Party as a whole and calls into question the judgment and character of a man

who only seems secure when surrounded by his "own kind". As for Labour trying this tactic before.....well they have never had such a plumb target before, this time its true. You don't have to be a Labourite to think its a bit odd......Another school contemporary says: "He's a strange product of my generation... He seems to represent a continuation of, or perhaps regression to, noblesse oblige Toryism. Do we want to be ruled by Arthurian knights again?"

Were Maggie able to communicate these days I think she would, privately at least, be expressing concern about the way the present Tory leader seems intend on surrounding himself with such a privileged elite, exactly that which she tried to change about the party.

[neil324]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Maybe so, but the country is facing far bigger problem's than where people wen't to school.

[MJP]

Are you there at the moment Neil? How bad is it really?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Maybe so, but the country is facing far bigger problem's than where people wen't to school.

[neil324]

Are you there at the moment Neil? How bad is it really?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Maybe so, but the country is facing far bigger problem's than where people wen't to school.

Yeh i'm in the UK.

Seem's to be plodding along waiting for the election.

Starting to warm up now, you don't need a wooly hat when you go outside

[MJP]

How much work is there at the moment? My lot seem to be picking up.

Are you there at the moment Neil? How bad is it really?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Maybe so, but the country is facing far bigger problem's than where people wen't to school.

Yeh i'm in the UK.

Seem's to be plodding along waiting for the election.

Starting to warm up now, you don't need a wooly hat when you go outside

[neil324]

How much work is there at the moment? My lot seem to be picking up.

Are you there at the moment Neil? How bad is it really?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Maybe so, but the country is facing far bigger problem's than where people wen't to school.

Yeh i'm in the UK.

Seem's to be plodding along waiting for the election.

Starting to warm up now, you don't need a wooly hat when you go outside

Can't say it's picking up, my line of work is so reliant on the housing market and with volume falling regardless of reason is only going to affect it more.

The rates are the depressing part 30%/40% down.

[whichschool]

Be good to keep this thread related to the political situation and its relation to the value of sterling as there are some factual post and links on this thread, to keep it open.

Edited March 19, 2010 by whichschool