Thai Red Shirts Declare 'Class War'

[hardy1943]

I Guess Mr. T would not be a part of the Elite Class they are struggling against.

From my 17 years of watching Thai Politics , it has always been about anything BUT helping the Poor, hence , they are still Poor.

It all has to do with who you know or what you have.

GREED ??

I wonder , do these people know what HYPOCRITES are ?

Can somebody pay everyone to go home please ?

It does not matter who is in power here Greed and Corruption rules.

Bloomberg has this country for 10 years as one of the most corrupt country in Asia 8 years they where #1 the other 2 #2

This guy right now was born not with a silver spoon in his mouth

but platinum and diamonds hanging all over him, talk about spoiled elite,

he has not idea how some have to live in Issan or any place else .

We all should try to live on 1500 Baht a month like many do ,if that much.We all would not have such a big mouth and know it all attitude.

He so out of touch with reality.This forum a few years ago was great it is becoming a joke also.

Edited March 18, 2010 by hardy1943

[Tony121]

When Petrol prices rose in the uk. There were protests outside the petrochem works , which stopped petrol gas and oil being delivered all over the country , crippling the u.k. Bringing it to a stand still after a few days there were no cars busses or trains . No one could get to work it was great

If there serious why dont the Thais follow suit bring Bangkok to its knees .

They will have to listen then ???? wont they ..

I LOVE ANARCHY 2010

when did this happen?

Trains in london use electric

[bwalker1973]

Publish in the scotsman at 11am 18th March 2010:-

THE mass anti-government rally in Thailand appears to be fizzling. Tens of thousands have returned to their farms.

They drew nowhere near the promised million protesters. The prime minister rebuffed their demands for elections. But dismissing it as a failure could be a mistake.

What's changed in the week since the mostly rural supporters of fallen premier Thaksin Shinawatra began their "million man march" into Bangkok?

Thaksin's red-shirted protesters, vilified as a thuggish mob after their insurrection in Bangkok nearly a year ago, has won credibility as a non-violent political movement that is in the fray for the long haul, several independent analysts said.

The "red shirts", trying to force prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to call an early election, splattered gallons of their own blood outside his residence yesterday in a dramatic demonstration to show their "sacrifice for democracy".

But the protest, which drew howls of outrage from public heath professionals, put them no closer to polls that must be held by the end of 2011.

They are well placed to win any election anyway – Thaksin-affiliated parties have won every election the past decade – and that could herald deep change for South-east Asia's second-biggest economy.

"The size of the protest, the show of emotion and discipline, has been impressive, and Thai people will have got the message quite strongly," said Chris Baker, who has written several books about Thaksin.

"The tendency to dismiss the 'red shirts' will diminish from this point on. There's an upsurge that's really a lot bigger than people imagined, and anyone who says this protest was a failure is just kidding themselves."

Federico Ferrara, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore, said the rally could garner some support from Bangkok's politically powerful middle classes by softening the image of a movement widely blamed for Thailand's worst street violence in 17 years last April.

"A mobilisation of this number of people from the provinces, against a scaremongering government that did everything in its power to stop them, is somewhat unprecedented," he said. "They've been portrayed as barbarians coming to tear up the capital, but that didn't happen. They came to Bangkok to show they're legitimate. Mission accomplished."

In a front page analysis on Wednesday, the anti-Thaksin Nation newspaper countered that view, suggesting the "red shirts" lacked co-ordination and were becoming divided, with Thaksin not totally in control.

"His entire political movement had been fractious but the problems may become glaring once the 'red shirts' make their retreat," it said. "Many of the red shirts will be going home not quite knowing what they were in the city for."

However, if the grassroots movement picks up pace, it will likely remain on a collision course with a traditional, urban-centred power clique that hates Thaksin, a corruption-convicted, multimillionaire beloved by the rural poor, who elected him twice by landslides.

Results of previous elections have shown Thais are broadly traditional voters and analysts believe the rural masses in the vote-rich north and northeast will back Puea Thai, the latest incarnation of Thaksin's electoral juggernaut.

That poses medium-term risks in a country where recent tight co-ordination between fiscal and monetary policies has been widely applauded, and where Oxford-educated finance minister Korn Chatikavanij, a close ally of Abhisit, has drawn praise from foreign investors for aggressive fiscal stimulus measures.

Adding to the risk are fears of another intervention by the judiciary or the military if Thaksin's allies win the election, as many expect, given the loyalty of his rural backers.

"I've lived through years of Thailand going back to becoming a country for the few," said Rung Suramanee, a 76-year-old red shirt from Mukdaharn, a Thaksin stronghold. "I'm ready to sacrifice anything for majority rule to return."

The red shirts aim not only to topple the government. In recent months, they have stepped up a campaign to rid Thailand of an unelected "elite" of big businessmen, royal advisers, army generals and judges, who they say have undermined governments elected by the majority of voters in the country of 67 million people.

Thaksin, who led or backed those governments, said on Monday Thai elites were "like falling trees" and urged his supporters to be patient.

Political analyst Suranand Vejjajiva said that would depend on their resources and ability to keep up the momentum.

"The question is if they can transform into a real political movement," he said. "It will be very difficult, but they now have the opportunity to become a credible political force."

Edited March 18, 2010 by bwalker1973

[Grey11]

djees, nice forum , you type a name wrong (esp) and your post got delllleted... oh typo.. also delete ?

Yes but "ol' <deleted> chops" as a first name is pushing it a bit.

[TominBangkok]

I wish the Red Shirts would just call it quits and go home!

[Grey11]

djees, nice forum , you type a name wrong (esp) and your post got delllleted... oh typo.. also delete ?

Yes but "ol' <deleted> chops" as a first name is pushing it a bit.

That's a good one. Reading the posts on the Red Shirts on yahoo news many posters referred to Thaksin as "square face." I thought that was a good one also.

[Tokay]

Maybe they can work it all out, the PM will step down, and by this time Monay morning, the Yellow shirts (or a new group) will bring Bangkok to its knees.

[beerchang]

When Petrol prices rose in the uk. There were protests outside the petrochem works , which stopped petrol gas and oil being delivered all over the country , crippling the u.k. Bringing it to a stand still after a few days there were no cars busses or trains . No one could get to work it was great

If there serious why dont the Thais follow suit bring Bangkok to its knees .

They will have to listen then ???? wont they ..

I LOVE ANARCHY 2010

when did this happen?

Trains in london use electric

Er! The diesel ones don't!

[culicine]

I suppose we will be seeing more of Giles Ji Ungpakorn now that there is going to be a class war

What kind of class war will this be when the reds are now trying to elicit support from middle class Bangkokians as most of their supports have had to go home???

[animatic]

This situation calls for a patriotic Ad Carabao song to calm things down and bring everyone together over an energy drink or cold beer.

That gets my vote!

[Tony121]

When Petrol prices rose in the uk. There were protests outside the petrochem works , which stopped petrol gas and oil being delivered all over the country , crippling the u.k. Bringing it to a stand still after a few days there were no cars busses or trains . No one could get to work it was great

If there serious why dont the Thais follow suit bring Bangkok to its knees .

They will have to listen then ???? wont they ..

I LOVE ANARCHY 2010

when did this happen?

Trains in london use electric

Er! The diesel ones don't!

But the majority are, and no trains were stopped in london due to the protests

[Jerrytheyoung]

I agree with you, Hardy, except on one point. Changes in a society are mostly driven by people with a high level of understanding and Education. No matter what was the childhood environment, often they are coming from "elite".

So until now Abhisit was prisoner of his coalition: today, with his crisis sound management, he has the freedom to express himself....

So, we have to wait to see if he is a "great man" or only a clever "manipulator". The coming days will be revealing....

[Grey11]

Just now watching on television some of the Red Shirt women cooking in big pots. Maybe they are doing some good afterall. There may not be any more mangy soi dogs running loose in the streets of Bangkok.

[scorecard]

Now that Thaksin is out of the agenda, we are in the real issues.

I have already stated that it was very urgent to listen to the Rural population demands. Thailand Industry is booming, Bangkok and government are focusing on this expansion and the "good economical results". But they forget that this cannot be done durably with 50% of the population sidelined. Abhisit looks like a very smart guy in the management of the crisis until now. I expect he will go further in order to defuse -in depth- the situation.

The exit of the crisis MUST comprises a chapter dedicated to measures favouring the rural population, part of the Budget dedicated to expansion must be dedicated to modernisation of agriculture, irrigation in every village (solar pumps....), rubber and rice price policy, support of rural famility incomes, specific loans for agriculture equipment.....

If this is not done, the crisis will be only postponed or maybe will evolve in a very serious situation.

I wish the best and a smooth crisis exit to Thailand that I love as my second country.

Lots of good points. I also want to see something better for my Thai son and his wife and their young daughter.

Please also remember that PM Abhisit and K. Korn have already laid out a master plan and they know it's urgent to make fundamental overriding / structural changes which will result in a better share of the wealth / better standard of living for all Thais. (And thats the way it must be. Making special plans for farmers, and special plans taxi drivers, and .... etc etc is never going to create balance and equality. It's imperative that Thailand must get to a point (urgently) whereby all Thais are well capable of standing on their own feet, be a civil society.)

Also, it doesn't seem to have been reported very well that some of the village fund ideas have been continued and this will be necessary until other broader help kicks in. And of course PM Abhisit is going to be criticized that he just continued thaksins policies. So be it, he's also made it very clear that there will be more and more checks on corruption and he's already got serious about this with his own party members and the coalition (first time ever).

Also the 30Baht scheme is now free. Korn made the realization that the costs to document the 30Baht were much greater than the actual funds generated. He cancelled the fee and made it free.

Also, it doesn't seem to have been reported very well about the large changes abhisit and korn have laid for massive urgent changes to education including methodology and ensuring all Thai childen regardless of location get the same quality of education.

There's every chance that by the time the election must be conducted that thaksin and his thugs will be seen as totally irrelevant. I hope this is the case.

Edited March 18, 2010 by scorecard

[mazeltov]

what cracks me up is the leaders of the Red shirts are all HI SO's! Wealthy. Just like in the USA, where the Democrats say they are for the working man...as they drive a Benz and take vacations around the world. Same same.

We were watching the red shirt channel the other day. My wife saw a lady get up on stage and goes "Oh! Look at her...she is big time HI SO in Bangkok." And there she is trying to get the poor people to sleep on the street and walk in the sun for them...crazy....amazing what you can get people to believe...

yep, you busted them.

'big time HiSo in Bangkok' on the stage and poor people walk in the sun. Oh.hooo. well spotted. can't be legit.

Nail! Hammer! Ouch!

[James53]

they must be taking a leaf out gordon brown/labours book in the uk,who have declared a class more against the conservation public school boys party who are out for the upper classes first and foremost..

pretty similar to here

and the conservative and dem leaders both went to eton

And where exactly was Tony Blair educated. All the Labour big nobs of course send their kids to the local failing comprehensive, I think not. Labour and Gordon Brown are hypocrites.

[Phuket Stan]

Just now watching on television some of the Red Shirt women cooking in big pots. Maybe they are doing some good afterall. There may not be any more mangy soi dogs running loose in the streets of Bangkok.

What a racist statement

[husky]

In all political arenas the leaders of various parties often fall foul of either their own mis-guided actions (or criminality!) or are discredited by the opposition. What happens then is, they step down amid much publicity, disappear into the background whilst others repeatedly re-affirm the party line and the party re-groups and carries on.

What I think is different in this case is the thing is being financed by Thaksin himself and it takes big bucks. Just the initial payments for the first round of protests would = 200,000,000 baht (100,000 x 2000) and that only includes the cash payments, not transport, food, etc, and doesn't include payments to mid level staff, etc. etc., etc. Unless Thaksin wants to take a back seat, nobody else has the money to pony up and the reds are stuck with him. Edited March 18, 2010 by husky

[featography]

Just now watching on television some of the Red Shirt women cooking in big pots. Maybe they are doing some good afterall. There may not be any more mangy soi dogs running loose in the streets of Bangkok.

What a racist statement

more like chauvanistic comment than racist

[jesimps]

I think the posts you see from farang on this website more or less back up the news headline about the class struggle. The ruling democrats are supported by the elite of Thai society, plus most of the farang on here, who are quite well-off by Thai standards, seem to be fanatically anti-Thaksin. Don't forget friends that the majority of Thais voted PPP in two elections so I wouldn't be so quick to voice your criticisms of them on here. Why not just leave it to the Thai people to sort out.

[Jerrytheyoung]

Scorecard,

The efforts for the Rural Population are far to be at the required level.

we have known this kind of situation in France in the 50's: half of the population was farming. Now french farmers represent 5% of the population

How the problem has been solved? By a large policy with several aspects, for example:

- creation of a Rural Bank (credit Agricole), delivering loans to farmers at very advantageous conditions and partly subsidised

- re-grouping of lands in more operational sizes to introduce mechanisation

- subsidising during several years some productions until they reach the level of international competiveness.

- favourising the association of farmers in order to maximise the utilisation of investments (Cooperatives)- particularly true with the vineyards.

-de-localisattion of "agro alimentaire" (food industry) throughout the country

It is also important that a policy of Industry delocalisation is undertaken to fix the population in each region in order to avoid a migration to the Capital, if not Bangkok with become a monster.

[mazeltov]

Just now watching on television some of the Red Shirt women cooking in big pots. Maybe they are doing some good afterall. There may not be any more mangy soi dogs running loose in the streets of Bangkok.

What a racist statement

more like chauvanistic comment than racist

more like a pure internet hero statement. as usual you get it here.

though canine-huggers might raise an eyebrow.

[Jerrytheyoung]

Jesimps.

,

I cannot vote in Thailand because I am a Farang. My In Law family is a generous one, but also one of the poorest in the Issan village where they live

With my Mia (widowed, never been Bar or massage girl), we have to educate two kids. So, I consider I have to help my thais friend and it is my duty as father to take care of the future of my two kids, consequentlyh I have (with decence and respect) to give them my opinion and to participate to the issue solving.

[antony77]

they must be taking a leaf out gordon brown/labours book in the uk,who have declared a class more against the conservation public school boys party who are out for the upper classes first and foremost..

pretty similar to here

and the conservative and dem leaders both went to eton

I hope David Cameron wins the next UK election. It will mean good ties between the UK and Thailand. Eton has produced some really great leaders and I think Khun Abhisit, given the chance will do a lot for this country.

[ovaltina]

When Petrol prices rose in the uk. There were protests outside the petrochem works , which stopped petrol gas and oil being delivered all over the country , crippling the u.k. Bringing it to a stand still after a few days there were no cars busses or trains . No one could get to work it was great

If there serious why dont the Thais follow suit bring Bangkok to its knees .

They will have to listen then ???? wont they ..

I LOVE ANARCHY 2010

I didn't notice that huge petroleum war in the UK, but it does sound absolutely super.No buses, no ambulances either.No more synthetic medicines to keep ppl alive. Hooray for lots of pregnant women not able to get to hopsital and sick disabled people dying in the road etc. Bring everything down to a total medieval nightmare totally rocks! So cool if Bkk follows this thing that didn't happen anyway ..

No more computer retailers too, which might be a good thing if it stops Rick from the Young Ones getting his commie mitts on the internet.

[steveromagnino]

to win a class war first requires a working class hero.

It is hard to imagine that one of the richest men in the country who was born into wealth, spent most of his life in wealth and some of it in unimaginable wealth almost none personally shared with the poor and a family who has almost nothing in common with a rice or sugar farmer is the guy who currently appears to be the only one who is the hero of the poor.

As long as a substantial force stand in the way blocking him (the courts, Thailand's income generator - the business community of Bangkok, the majority of the house of elected representatives, a more informed, better financed/politically savvy protesters) then the red shirts need to find an alternative hero, or we are stuck with this deadlock as they must know that even were they to somehow do better in the next election that the last; it would have to be a pretty big swing from the previous election which the by elections suggested has actually swung the other way in order to create a strong coalition; then to fiddle the constitution and wind back time for Thaksin, is a lot to ask; something the business community would not probably be able to afford to go through again and that many voters, even those loyal to Thaksin, may not be willing to vote for.

If we imagine, just for a second, that Thaksin cannot stand. Who would be a suitable proxy, with the fortitude to be able to try to force through a huge change in constitution and to acheive this? If not for the Thaksin name, Samak would have got nowhere. Chavalit and Chalerm are even more damaged goods than Samak - Samak at least had a bit of support in Bangkok and was regarded initially as possibly ok - turned out to be useless, but that was kind of expected after his run as BMA governor.

On the other hand, Chavilit would be widely considered as one of the worst PMs Thailand has ever had, and while friendly and avuncular, he is going to be hopeless and would not be able to acheive the results for Thaksin that he needs. Chalerm is widely distrusted after his son fiasco despite being a fairly good speaker. Neither of these would reach the acceptance of the business community.

And make no doubt about it, there is a lot of theory to suggest businesses decide who will govern. TRT came into power not on the back of the rural poor the first time, but on the back of the businesses that were willing to fund their electioneering....in return for things such as:

- property incentives and a blind eye to increasing foreign ownership, at least initially (L&H, Noble)

- control of the airport (King Power, various)

- control of infrastructure (Jasmin, Shin, Samart, ItalThai)

- control of agriculture (CP)

- control of retail (CP)

- control of FTA negotation and incentives (Shin, Samart, Summit)

- control of media and govt access to media and advertising (Channel 3, Channel 7, Traffic Corner, Grammy, etc)

The big families, the ones who in my mind represent more than almost any others the true meaning of unelected power behind the PM's seat, are the ones who control things and whether these families will pay again, for uncertainty, is unknown.

We haven't seen any agenda from the red shirts yet to address what they stand for regarding big business......because the red shirts can't go after those families without running after their own Shinwatra and other 'hisos' tails.

If at some point the red shirt movement really does become an equal vote, equal rights, equal opportunities movement - something I believed with my heart to be absolutely impossible 2 weeks ago, but now I put at perhaps a 10% chance now; then the pro Thaksin mantra will have to fall by the wayside somewhat. I have no idea who would lead that shift; I cannot see Jatuporn et al saying anything other than the utter rubbish we've listened to for 1 year + so far; where are the speakers with actual agendas for what they want to see and how they want the country to run. It requires some pretty major change within the red shirt organisation, and businesses would likely not embrace changes that result in lower profits; CP for instance.

So you either end up with a set of policies that are hard to find funding for to run the election campaign, or you end up as we did in the TRT elections with a facade of change, but the same upcountry godfathers, exactly as has occurred in all elections to date. The Thaksin effect just cuts the costs of running and winning and election but that effect gets less each time and gets a lot less if you don't have the Thaksin effect; who will be the Thaksin proxy this time? And each election, it's like investing for a return. You need 2 years to get payback really, anything more than that is a bonus. Which of the money bags are willing to help seriously fund a PT electoral effort when i seems doomed to last less than a year if they win, and highly likely that some of their policies won't be exactly pro business?

Therefore, for a real class war to commence, to truly begin with an agenda of equality for the future; it requires that the red shirts start letting go, somewhat, of the obsession with Thaksin alone and offering a new leader that has a rural agenda. I look around and I am blank who this could possibly be. A person who can bring together the financing side of the business families, with the street smarts of a gangster to lock in the rural godfathers using that business money which will be absolutely mandatory if they don't have a leader with such personality as to be able to actually acheive what no Thai politician has ever done, to get around the rural godfathers, and then the business support to win Bangkok and the cities.

The voting profile of TRT the first time around (they swept BKK) and now is wildly different. Some rural poor areas are strongly red shirt. Some are strongly anti. It solely relates to just 1 guy, because the red shirt movement right now has no figure, not one, that would step in to fill the void if Thaksin said he wasn't going to go back into politics.

- Sudarat is probably the closest, but she doesn't appeal to rural poor and the business community thinks she's a twit.

- Somkid is long gone, but anyway the poor people made fun of him.

- Purachai too polarising and besides which he isn't a red shirter by any means.

- Suranond Vejajiva is a lightweight and again, no poor person would take any of these technocrat types seriously.

I just can't see how the logic works that these guys can sweep into power effortlessly with an actually thought out rural agenda.

I personally think their best shot, if they really want a class war, is to separate themselves from Thaksin completely by breaking into 2 groups; form a truly rural party and then run on the basis of that knowing as we do now, that neither PT nor Dems will win the election same as last time; both will need coalition partners. At this time, the rural party becomes a king maker to force the changes they want.

Of course.....I also know all this to be likely almost impossible, because the red shirts grass roots people carrying about democracy etc stuff and the reality of the dirty world Thai politics has a very very big disconnect in the middle.

It is therefore ironic to me that the most hope the red shirts must surely have is a side deal down outside of the elected officials and outside the constitution that would acheive what Thaksin wants, reflecting the exact double standard that the red shirts claim to be against.

Edited March 18, 2010 by steveromagnino

[hunglikea]

self edited after reading steveromagnino.

He took the 5000 words right out of my mouth.

:D

Edited March 18, 2010 by hunglikea

[aka_jack]

Heres an idea ! Thaksin comes back and they hold snap elections for the reds ! ha ha ! he loves them that much !

[dobadoy]

to win a class war first requires a working class hero.

If someone had suggested in any way that Thaksin is suitable, I would have roared with laughter, except that it is almost laughable were it not actually occuring now; one of the richest men in the country who was born into wealth, spent most of his life in wealth and some of it in unimaginable wealth almost none personally shared with the poor and a family who has almost nothing in common with a rice or sugar farmer. It is hard to believe that this....this is the guy who currently appears to be the only one who is the hero of the poor.

The big problem for the red shirts is that as long as a substantial force stand in the way blocking him (the courts, Thailand's income generator - the business community of Bangkok, the majority of the house of elected representatives, a more informed, better financed and more politically savvy group of protesters in Bangkok) then the red shirts need to find an alternative hero, or we are stuck with this deadlock as they must know that even were they to somehow do better in the next election that the last; it would have to be a pretty big swing from the previous election which the by elections suggested has actually swung the other way in order to create a strong coalition; then to fiddle the constitution and wind back time for Thaksin, is a lot to ask; something the business community would not probably be able to afford to go through again and that many voters, even those loyal to Thaksin, may not be willing to vote for.

If we imagine, just for a second, that Thaksin cannot stand. Who would be a suitable proxy, with the fortitude to be able to try to force through a huge change in constitution and to acheive this? If not for the Thaksin name, Samak would have got nowhere. Chavalit and Chalerm are even more damaged goods than Samak - Samak at least had a bit of support in Bangkok and was regarded initially as possibly ok - turned out to be useless, but that was kind of expected after his run as BMA governor.

On the other hand, Chavilit would be widely considered as one of the worst PMs Thailand has ever had, and while friendly and avuncular, he is going to be hopeless and would not be able to acheive the results for Thaksin that he needs. Chalerm is widely distrusted after his son fiasco despite being a fairly good speaker. Neither of these would reach the acceptance of the business community. And make no doubt about it, there is a lot of theory to suggest businesses decide who will govern. TRT came into power not on the back of the rural poor the first time, but on the back of the businesses that were willing to fund their electioneering....in return for things such as:

- property incentives and a blind eye to increasing foreign ownership, at least initially (L&H, Noble)

- control of the airport (King Power, various)

- control of infrastructure (Jasmin, Shin, Samart, ItalThai)

- control of agriculture (CP)

- control of retail (CP)

- control of FTA negotation and incentives (Shin, Samart, Summit)

- control of media and govt access to media and advertising (Channel 3, Channel 7, Traffic Corner, Grammy, etc)

Some rich individuals paid to help get TRT into power, so they could access cheap distressed assets, refinance their own companies, and influence key government policy. The big families, the ones who in my mind represent more than almost any others the true meaning of unelected power behind the PM's seat, are the ones who control things like capping hyper market expansion; ignoring and removing deregulation of the telco market; controlling media, etc. Whether these families will pay again, for uncertainty, is unknown.

We haven't seen any agenda from the red shirts yet to address what they stand for regarding big business......because the red shirts can't go after those families without running after their own Shinwatra and other 'hisos' tails.

If at some point the red shirt movement really does become an equal vote, equal rights, equal opportunities movement - something I believed with my heart to be absolutely impossible 2 weeks ago, but now I put at perhaps a 10% chance now; then the pro Thaksin mantra will have to fall by the wayside somewhat. I have no idea who would lead that shift; I cannot see Jatuporn et al saying anything other than the utter rubbish we've listened to for 1 year + so far; where are the speakers with actual agendas for what they want to see and how they want the country to run. It requires some pretty major change within the red shirt organisation.

IF PT decided to push a totally populist real rural poor agenda, then certain businesses, especially CP a very political family, could suffer. Past TRT supporters like King Power know they will be punished because everyone already saw the petty vindictiveness of PPP after they were elected. Therefore seems unlikely to be able to win them back.

So you end up with a facade of change, but really the worst of the worst upcountry mobsters are going to be the elected officials, exactly as has occurred in all elections to date. The Thaksin effect just cuts the costs of running and winning and election but that effect gets less each time and gets a lot less if you don't have the Thaksin effect; who will be the Thaksin proxy this time? And each election, it's like investing for a return. You need 2 years to get payback really, anything more than that is a bonus. Which of the money bags are willing to help seriously fund a PT electoral effort when i seems doomed to last less than a year if they win, and highly likely that some of their policies won't be exactly pro business?

Therefore, for a real class war to commence, to truly begin with an agenda of equality for the future; it requires that the red shirts start letting go, somewhat, of the obsession with Thaksin alone and offering a new leader that has a rural agenda. I look around and I am blank who this could possibly be. A person who can bring together the financing side of the business families, with the street smarts of a gangster to lock in the rural godfathers using that business money which will be absolutely mandatory if they don't have a leader with such personality as to be able to actually acheive what no Thai politician has ever done, to get around the rural godfathers, and then the business support to win Bangkok and the cities.

The voting profile of TRT the first time around (they swept BKK) and now is wildly different. Some rural poor areas are strongly red shirt. Some are strongly anti. It solely relates to just 1 guy, because the red shirt movement right now has no figure, not one, that would step in to fill the void if Thaksin said he wasn't going to go back into politics.

Sudarat is probably the closest, but she doesn't appeal to rural poor and the business community thinks she's a twit.

Somkid is long gone, but anyway the poor people made fun of him.

Purachai too polarising and besides which he isn't a red shirter by any means.

Suranond Vejajiva is a lightweight and again, no poor person would take any of these technocrat types seriously.

I just can't see how the logic works that these guys can sweep into power effortlessly with an actually thought out rural agenda.

I personally think their best shot, if they really want a class war, is to separate themselves from Thaksin completely by breaking into 2 groups; form a truly rural party and then run on the basis of that knowing as we do now, that neither PT nor Dems will win the election same as last time; both will need coalition partners. At this time, the rural party becomes a king maker to force the changes they want.

Of course.....I also know all this to be likely almost impossible, because the red shirts grass roots people carrying about democracy etc stuff and the reality of the dirty world Thai politics has a very very big disconnect in the middle.

So I guess we either get another claiming to be a rural party but not really PT/PPP type party running on the coat tails of Thaksin, but unlikely to be able to secure enough to do anything about it.....or we get a genuine rural party which is a lot more work and perhaps less likely to make headway but is actually what the red shirts should be pushing for now....not nearly as much of a vote winner, but long term actually truly a step for equal representation.

It is therefore ironic to me that the most hope the red shirts must surely have is a side deal down outside of the elected officials and outside the constitution that would acheive what Thaksin wants, reflecting the exact double standard that the red shirts claim to be against.

aww, don't be shy. Elaborate a little.

[hunglikea]

to win a class war first requires a working class hero.

Therefore, for a real class war to commence, to truly begin with an agenda of equality for the future; it requires that the red shirts start letting go, somewhat, of the obsession with Thaksin alone and offering a new leader that has a rural agenda. I look around and I am blank who this could possibly be. A person who can bring together the financing side of the business families, with the street smarts of a gangster to lock in the rural godfathers using that business money which will be absolutely mandatory if they don't have a leader with such personality as to be able to actually acheive what no Thai politician has ever done, to get around the rural godfathers, and then the business support to win Bangkok and the cities.

In total agreement, well said, but who is going to take or be offered the baton?