Thai Red Shirts Declare 'Class War'

[yoshiwara]

OK, I am not a supporter of either T or A.

I just find that the social imbalance between northern rural and Bangkokian is dangerous, unfair and not sustainable and it is the priority number one to be fixed.

Can you explain me what is the Abhisit (because he is the PM in command) policy for fixing this problem? What is the Budget and the means allocated and why in the Post, today, the Farmers are threatening to ban voting Democrat?

Nonsense.

The economical imbalance between the urban middle class and the rural south is more dangerous, as we can see from the last 8 years of insurgency.

Not withstanding that Thaksin's regime accelerated the imbalance (giving aid to Northern farmers to grow the same products in the South and not giving aid to the South when there is regional disasters etc).

But then again, we already know that Thaksin does not support the poor if they live in areas he don't control...as it is only direct payment for power we are talking about. Not actual support.

HOTCHPOTCH

For your information the Southern unrest is limited to 3 former autonomous muslims entities, the Thai government in the 70's has "normalised" the status of those 3 entities, they have lost their autonomy and the administration is now centralised.

The unrest is limited to those 3 provinces, the west part of the Southern Thailand is not involved (Satun). If you want to compare it is similar to the situation of the "Pays Basque" in Spain. Initially, the unrest has been triggered by the Malay (ex) hierarchy of those provinces who have lost their positions.

You read the post as the devil reads the bible.

Yes, the violence is limited to mainly 3 provinces, and no-were did I wrote anything else.

The southern farmers plight not being listened to is true and not something that is limited to the 3 provinces with unrest.

And that is the point. The north does not have a copyright on having poor people.

There are poor people everywhere.

Some Thaksin apologists appear to have a copyright on insidiously sneaking in support for Thaksin while trying to appear not to.

Edited March 22, 2010 by yoshiwara

[anotherpeter]

In the competitor newspaper, an excellent article, well documented about the "Gap" between social classes in Thailand. It gives another perspective to the conflict.

Extracts

From officia statistics sources the income per Capita in Thailand (2006)

NE region 36,500 TBT

Southern region 90,700 TBT

Bangkok and Vicinity 290,000TBT

Have to be read absolutely, will avoid to post stupidities

You would probably find that the discrepancies between city incomes and country incomes the same throughout the world. Particularly where there is just one major city in the country. All the big business is in the city so that is where all the VERY high incomes are. This would probably be true even in the UK, Australia and the US.

In cities you need to be paid more for doing the same job as in the country just because it is more expensive to live there.

The southern region incomes maybe increased by wages in the resort areas, such as Phuket and Samui, since there will be higher paid people there doing higher skilled work (and speaking English or other languages).

Ofcourse, I am not saying that some of it shouldn't be fixed in Thailand, but you can't read everything from statistics like that.

[Thai at Heart]

In the competitor newspaper, an excellent article, well documented about the "Gap" between social classes in Thailand. It gives another perspective to the conflict.

Extracts

From officia statistics sources the income per Capita in Thailand (2006)

NE region 36,500 TBT

Southern region 90,700 TBT

Bangkok and Vicinity 290,000TBT

Have to be read absolutely, will avoid to post stupidities

You would probably find that the discrepancies between city incomes and country incomes the same throughout the world. Particularly where there is just one major city in the country. All the big business is in the city so that is where all the VERY high incomes are. This would probably be true even in the UK, Australia and the US.

In cities you need to be paid more for doing the same job as in the country just because it is more expensive to live there.

The southern region incomes maybe increased by wages in the resort areas, such as Phuket and Samui, since there will be higher paid people there doing higher skilled work (and speaking English or other languages).

Ofcourse, I am not saying that some of it shouldn't be fixed in Thailand, but you can't read everything from statistics like that.

However, if you were considering a poverty eradication program, it is pretty obvious where you would start isn't it?

I somehow doubt that the differences in the developed world are 9 times either. Even stranger when you consider that an awful lot of the employees that sit in the factories of Bangkok and vicinity are from the North East and are probably on or around minimum wages. Even worse, that it is considered rather than pay wages to your own countrymen it is ok to import workers. I may be wrong but the minimum wage in Bangkok is around 200 baht, but rather than become more efficient, the factories would rather have Burmese for half that.

So even the "imported" Isaan worker faces competition from legally or illegally imported workers even though minimum is only 200 baht.

[Jerrytheyoung]

To answer to some of the Questions. (source Bank of Thailand)

Wealth distribution in Thailand

Top 20% 69

2nd quintile 18

3rd quintile 9

4th quintile 3

Bottom 20% 1

------------------------------------------------

Income Gaps per Country (GINI Index -source United Nations)

Denmark 24.7

Japan 24.9

Netherlands 30.9

Korea 31.6

France 32.7

Vietnam 37.8

Thailand 42.5

Bostwana 61.0

[Tejas]

Can they re-invent themselves and convince their stalwart supporters that giving a bit back to the poorest areas in the country is good in the long term for the development of the country? Good luck Abhisit.

I just don't think they (by "they" I mean the elites on both sides) will do what is right for the majority--by "majority" I mean the masses comprising urban and especially rural Thailand.

I don't think the entire burden falls on Abhisit's shoulders. But I am sure you know this.

The only long term solution (not short term) is 21st century, sustainable economic development.

Thailand is too closed off to the rest of the world. That must change.

Old rules are no longer sufficient to keep "order."

Will it be democracy? Will it be force? Other?

Stability must arrive soon.

[Jerrytheyoung]

Can they re-invent themselves and convince their stalwart supporters that giving a bit back to the poorest areas in the country is good in the long term for the development of the country? Good luck Abhisit.

I just don't think they (by "they" I mean the elites on both sides) will do what is right for the majority--by "majority" I mean the masses comprising urban and especially rural Thailand.

I don't think the entire burden falls on Abhisit's shoulders. But I am sure you know this.

The only long term solution (not short term) is 21st century, sustainable economic development.

Thailand is too closed off to the rest of the world. That must change.

Old rules are no longer sufficient to keep "order."

Will it be democracy? Will it be force? Other?

Stability must arrive soon.

As it has been explained by some posters, Abhisit seems of "Good Will' but is prisoner of his coalition and cannot do a lot: so the proposals fall short of what is required for defusing the crisis.

The Red Shirts is a mosaic, until now the main stream was leaded by Thaksin supporters. At the stage where he is in his struggle, he has open the Pandora box risking everything in order to take his revenge on the elite. He certainly knows that it can be an earthquake in the Thai society and he certainly knows also that he cannot come back as PM in Thailand. If the Center of gravity of the mosaic was initially with the Thaksin supporters, now it is more and more excentred and may escape to their control in the coming weeks.

I am not a Thaksin follower, I find Abhisit interesting but until now he has not shown he has not the stature for getting out of the trap in which he is enclosed. I wish for Thailand that the current events will reveal a new class of leaders, because currently both sides are unable to solve the issues of the Thai society.

[anotherpeter]

To answer to some of the Questions. (source Bank of Thailand)

Wealth distribution in Thailand

Top 20% 69

2nd quintile 18

3rd quintile 9

4th quintile 3

Bottom 20% 1

------------------------------------------------

Income Gaps per Country (GINI Index -source United Nations)

Denmark 24.7

Japan 24.9

Netherlands 30.9

Korea 31.6

France 32.7

Vietnam 37.8

Thailand 42.5

Bostwana 61.0

Also USA 45.0

Singapore 48.1

Philippines 45.8

Cambodia 43.0

Vietnam being communist would have a better spread.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...ields/2172.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_count...income_equality

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient

[animatic]

In the competitor newspaper, an excellent article, well documented about the "Gap" between social classes in Thailand. It gives another perspective to the conflict.

Extracts

From officia statistics sources the income per Capita in Thailand (2006)

NE region 36,500 TBT

Southern region 90,700 TBT

Bangkok and Vicinity 290,000TBT

Have to be read absolutely, will avoid to post stupidities

You would probably find that the discrepancies between city incomes and country incomes the same throughout the world. Particularly where there is just one major city in the country. All the big business is in the city so that is where all the VERY high incomes are. This would probably be true even in the UK, Australia and the US.

In cities you need to be paid more for doing the same job as in the country just because it is more expensive to live there.

The southern region incomes maybe increased by wages in the resort areas, such as Phuket and Samui, since there will be higher paid people there doing higher skilled work (and speaking English or other languages).

Ofcourse, I am not saying that some of it shouldn't be fixed in Thailand, but you can't read everything from statistics like that.

Plus with the tourist center towns of Phucket, Samui and Pattaya, and assorted resorts tourist traps,

and islands with higher incomes for those in the support structures, there is no doubt a higher income available.

Lets also not forget this number is the 'legally declared' number for up north,

and doesn't reflect the black market, extra legal 'personal support services',

and legal construction market in the south, fed by northern workers,

both largely under-reported in the north.

There are many in the south getting low incomes too, but out-weighed in the calculation,

by some segments paying MUCH higher wages for much higher levels of services.

Edited March 23, 2010 by animatic

[animatic]

To answer to some of the Questions. (source Bank of Thailand)

Wealth distribution in Thailand

Top 20% 69

2nd quintile 18

3rd quintile 9

4th quintile 3

Bottom 20% 1

------------------------------------------------

Income Gaps per Country (GINI Index -source United Nations)

Denmark 24.7

Japan 24.9

Netherlands 30.9

Korea 31.6

France 32.7

Vietnam 37.8

Thailand 42.5

Bostwana 61.0

Also USA 45.0

Singapore 48.1

Philippines 45.8

Cambodia 43.0

Vietnam being communist would have a better spread.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...ields/2172.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_count...income_equality

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient

So it becomes apparent that USA is WORSE than Thailand by 2.5%...

[Jerrytheyoung]

a ray of light for the future? What think the UDD youngsters about PAD youngsters and their elders in politics

Citation: "Although the pro-Thaksin group and the Young PAD have different political stances, Mr Ittipon said he appreciated the Young PAD's concern for the country.

"They care about the Thai political situation and have done something to improve it. They are better than those who don't care about the country and just stand still like 'social parasites', " he said.

[Thai at Heart]

So it becomes apparent that USA is WORSE than Thailand by 2.5%...

All in all, not a figure to be particularly proud of IMHO.

However there are some anomalies.

Comparing income distributions among countries may be difficult because benefits systems may differ. For example, some countries give benefits in the form of money while others give food stamps, which might not be counted by some economists and researchers as income in the Lorenz curve and therefore not taken into account in the Gini coefficient. The USA counts income before benefits, while France counts it after benefits, making the USA appear slightly more unequal vis-a-vis France than it admittedly is. In another example, USSR appeared to have relatively high income inequality: by some estimates, in the late 70's, Gini coefficient of its urban population was as high as 0.38[14], which is higher than many Western countries today. This apparent inequality ignored the fact that many benefits received by Soviet citizens were nonmonetary and were afforded regardless of income: these benefits included, among others, free child care for children as young as 2 months, free elementary, secondary and higher education, free cradle-to-grave medical care, free or heavily subsidized housing. In this example, an accurate comparison between the 1970s USSR and Western countries would require one to assign monetary values to such benefits (a difficult task in the absence of free markets). Similar problems arise whenever a comparison between pure free-market economies and partially socialist economies is attempted. Benefits may take various and unexpected forms: for example, major oil producers such as Venezuela and Iran provide indirect benefits to its citizens by subsidizing the retail price of gasoline.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient

[anotherpeter]

As it has been explained by some posters, Abhisit seems of "Good Will' but is prisoner of his coalition and cannot do a lot: so the proposals fall short of what is required for defusing the crisis.

The Red Shirts is a mosaic, until now the main stream was leaded by Thaksin supporters. At the stage where he is in his struggle, he has open the Pandora box risking everything in order to take his revenge on the elite. He certainly knows that it can be an earthquake in the Thai society and he certainly knows also that he cannot come back as PM in Thailand. If the Center of gravity of the mosaic was initially with the Thaksin supporters, now it is more and more excentred and may escape to their control in the coming weeks.

I am not a Thaksin follower, I find Abhisit interesting but until now he has not shown he has not the stature for getting out of the trap in which he is enclosed. I wish for Thailand that the current events will reveal a new class of leaders, because currently both sides are unable to solve the issues of the Thai society.

IMO, I don't think people have given Abhisit much of a chance.

Abhisit has been PM for about 15 months. Most of this time has been through the GFC. He has started to do things to help the poor, but in some areas this is being hijacked or rejected by the local power base.

Thaksin was corrupting the whole system to his favour. He had bought the poor farmer vote through cash handouts, cheap loans (basically more cash handouts) and unsustainable policies. While he was in power, he did very little to help the poor longer term - eg. education. While PM, he changed laws that specifically benefitted his company. He stole billions of dollars from Thailand while he was PM.

He changed laws and tried to change the consititution so that he could stay in power even after failed elections.

The army did the coup in 2006 because they couldn't get rid of Thaksin democratically. They changed the constitution so that the likes of Thaksin could not get that much power and be that corrupt again. There is corruption right throughout Thai society, but Thaksin was taking too much.

You can't expect Thailand to be turned into a functioning democracy in a couple of years. Unfortunately the army had to step in after a false start. But it is back on track again. Elections in 2007. The courts weeding out some of the corruption (on both sides). Abhisit also weeding out corruption in his own party. Elections due again in 2011.

There are plenty of conspiracy theories regarding how much the army are still involved in politics. They obviously are in areas. But most of it is about keeping Thaksin out, not keeping Abhisit in.

With the reds keeping their protests peaceful, it has put a lot more pressure on the government to do something about the plight of the farmers. But they have to allow some government action in their areas. In some places where the government has tried to do something, they have been threatened and chased away.

If the reds want democracy, they need to allow everyone to campaign in their areas and not only Thaksin puppets.

There will continue to be corruption in Thailand (politics, the army and business) for years to come.

Elections now will not solve this. Thaksin will definitely not solve this.

[anotherpeter]

So it becomes apparent that USA is WORSE than Thailand by 2.5%...

All in all, not a figure to be particularly proud of IMHO.

However there are some anomalies.

Comparing income distributions among countries may be difficult because benefits systems may differ. For example, some countries give benefits in the form of money while others give food stamps, which might not be counted by some economists and researchers as income in the Lorenz curve and therefore not taken into account in the Gini coefficient. The USA counts income before benefits, while France counts it after benefits, making the USA appear slightly more unequal vis-a-vis France than it admittedly is. In another example, USSR appeared to have relatively high income inequality: by some estimates, in the late 70's, Gini coefficient of its urban population was as high as 0.38[14], which is higher than many Western countries today. This apparent inequality ignored the fact that many benefits received by Soviet citizens were nonmonetary and were afforded regardless of income: these benefits included, among others, free child care for children as young as 2 months, free elementary, secondary and higher education, free cradle-to-grave medical care, free or heavily subsidized housing. In this example, an accurate comparison between the 1970s USSR and Western countries would require one to assign monetary values to such benefits (a difficult task in the absence of free markets). Similar problems arise whenever a comparison between pure free-market economies and partially socialist economies is attempted. Benefits may take various and unexpected forms: for example, major oil producers such as Venezuela and Iran provide indirect benefits to its citizens by subsidizing the retail price of gasoline.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient

Also, most of the figures are from 2007 or earlier.

In 2000, Thailands GINI was 43.2 and 2002 it was 42, 2006 it was 43, so in 5 years of government (2001-2006), Thaksin didn't do much.

The current figures are not a reflection of the current government, just highlighting that they must do something about it.

Edited March 23, 2010 by anotherpeter

[Thai at Heart]

Also, most of the figures are from 2007 or earlier.

In 2000, Thailands GINI was 43.2 and 2002 it was 42, 2006 it was 43, so in 5 years of government (2001-2006), Thaksin didn't do much.

The current figures are not a reflection of the current government, just highlighting that they must do something about it.

His personal increase in wealth was probably enough to skew the numbers up. An extra 1bn USD in the hands of one person would probably skew the numbers.

I don't care that the numbers are good or bad in comparison with the US. That is the US's problem to solve. The fact is that there are dirt poor farmers out there. Abhisit has started to try and put something together, but he has firstly dismantled Thaksin's frameworks on commodity pricing because they were perceived to be wasteful and has implemented his own but it hasn't yet fed through to reality.

The reality is that with the weather as it is yields are not good, and prices are going down!

http://www.agrow.co.th/v09/articles.php?article_id=805

Statements in November

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Rice production in Thailand, the world’s biggest exporter, may beat a previous projection in the current crop year as increasing prices drive farmers to plant more, an official said.

Situation last month

Farmers' ire grows over inaction on low rice price

The paddy price has fallen from 9,000 to 7,000 baht a tonne. Many farmers have fallen into debt because of the lower prices.

This is from an article that cannot be linked but can be found by googling Rice Production 2010 Thailand.

So who is telling porky pies here. This is a mess, and as the situation sits right now, it is the Dems job to solve.

[Jerrytheyoung]

So it becomes apparent that USA is WORSE than Thailand by 2.5%...

All in all, not a figure to be particularly proud of IMHO.

However there are some anomalies.

Comparing income distributions among countries may be difficult because benefits systems may differ. For example, some countries give benefits in the form of money while others give food stamps, which might not be counted by some economists and researchers as income in the Lorenz curve and therefore not taken into account in the Gini coefficient. The USA counts income before benefits, while France counts it after benefits, making the USA appear slightly more unequal vis-a-vis France than it admittedly is. In another example, USSR appeared to have relatively high income inequality: by some estimates, in the late 70's, Gini coefficient of its urban population was as high as 0.38[14], which is higher than many Western countries today. This apparent inequality ignored the fact that many benefits received by Soviet citizens were nonmonetary and were afforded regardless of income: these benefits included, among others, free child care for children as young as 2 months, free elementary, secondary and higher education, free cradle-to-grave medical care, free or heavily subsidized housing. In this example, an accurate comparison between the 1970s USSR and Western countries would require one to assign monetary values to such benefits (a difficult task in the absence of free markets). Similar problems arise whenever a comparison between pure free-market economies and partially socialist economies is attempted. Benefits may take various and unexpected forms: for example, major oil producers such as Venezuela and Iran provide indirect benefits to its citizens by subsidizing the retail price of gasoline.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient

Also, most of the figures are from 2007 or earlier.

In 2000, Thailands GINI was 43.2 and 2002 it was 42, 2006 it was 43, so in 5 years of government (2001-2006), Thaksin didn't do much.

The current figures are not a reflection of the current government, just highlighting that they must do something about it.

This kind of statistics is usually not evolving quickly, these are the latest one available for us. Today it must not be quite different.

Everybody knows that the situation cannot evolve suddenly by a miracle, so those figures are not intended to grill any government but as you underline it is for assessing the situation and for demonstrating that, urgently, a policy has to be developed for Northern regions and particularly ISSAN. It confirms that a favourable ground do exist for the "class war" and that the Elite must accept some concessions: if not, sooner or later it will finish dramatically.

We have difficulties to perceived either with Abhisit, or Red Shirts a credible solution in the short term. However a dynamic has been launched which may go out of the initial expectations and a new generation may break through. But also, at some stage Army and the Highest level may interfere and put an heavy lid on, as it has already happened in the past.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

To answer to some of the Questions. (source Bank of Thailand)

Wealth distribution in Thailand

Top 20% 69

2nd quintile 18

3rd quintile 9

4th quintile 3

Bottom 20% 1

------------------------------------------------

Income Gaps per Country (GINI Index -source United Nations)

Denmark 24.7

Japan 24.9

Netherlands 30.9

Korea 31.6

France 32.7

Vietnam 37.8

Thailand 42.5

Bostwana 61.0

Also USA 45.0

Singapore 48.1

Philippines 45.8

Cambodia 43.0

Vietnam being communist would have a better spread.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...ields/2172.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_count...income_equality

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient

So it becomes apparent that USA is WORSE than Thailand by 2.5%...

Yes.. I find this topic highly interesting.. And remarkable to be debating an issue instead continueing a fruitless sniping match pro/contra particular politicians!

Possibly in countries with the very highest difference that are also poorest there would be less friction, simply because the bottom groups really have no power to make a stand. As the bottom groups are somewhat empowered and become more politically aware, there is an opportunity for friction to occur. This may again be more likely in countries where basic freedoms are guaranteed and a form of democracy exists.

[anotherpeter]

His personal increase in wealth was probably enough to skew the numbers up. An extra 1bn USD in the hands of one person would probably skew the numbers.

I don't care that the numbers are good or bad in comparison with the US. That is the US's problem to solve. The fact is that there are dirt poor farmers out there. Abhisit has started to try and put something together, but he has firstly dismantled Thaksin's frameworks on commodity pricing because they were perceived to be wasteful and has implemented his own but it hasn't yet fed through to reality.

The reality is that with the weather as it is yields are not good, and prices are going down!

http://www.agrow.co.th/v09/articles.php?article_id=805

Statements in November

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Rice production in Thailand, the world's biggest exporter, may beat a previous projection in the current crop year as increasing prices drive farmers to plant more, an official said.

Situation last month

Farmers' ire grows over inaction on low rice price

The paddy price has fallen from 9,000 to 7,000 baht a tonne. Many farmers have fallen into debt because of the lower prices.

This is from an article that cannot be linked but can be found by googling Rice Production 2010 Thailand.

So who is telling porky pies here. This is a mess, and as the situation sits right now, it is the Dems job to solve.

I don't think there are any lies there. One report from November. I couldn't find the specific articles you quoted from so no date for those, but I assume they are recent.

In November prices were high, so the farmers planted more crops.

Prices could have dropped for a number of reasons:

- more rice on the market would bring down prices.

- the stronger baht against the US dollar would have reduced export prices.

You're correct in that it is now the Democrats job to solve. It will be difficult because it involves market forces mostly out of the governments control.

IMO, the place to solve it is by getting rid of some of the corrupt middlemen. They are the biggest problem for the farmers.

[anotherpeter]

This kind of statistics is usually not evolving quickly, these are the latest one available for us. Today it must not be quite different.

Everybody knows that the situation cannot evolve suddenly by a miracle, so those figures are not intended to grill any government but as you underline it is for assessing the situation and for demonstrating that, urgently, a policy has to be developed for Northern regions and particularly ISSAN. It confirms that a favourable ground do exist for the "class war" and that the Elite must accept some concessions: if not, sooner or later it will finish dramatically.

We have difficulties to perceived either with Abhisit, or Red Shirts a credible solution in the short term. However a dynamic has been launched which may go out of the initial expectations and a new generation may break through. But also, at some stage Army and the Highest level may interfere and put an heavy lid on, as it has already happened in the past.

I think what a lot of "anti-elite" seem to forget is that for the "elite" to get richer (or even to keep their money), everyone (including the poor) needs to have money to spend - Consumption.

If the army or "elite" do not move forwards or they continue to interfere, then there will be less foreign investment and less spending by the poor. And the "elite" won't be making money.

The poor will continue to get ripped off by corrupt local business men (not "elite"), but through education this will be reduced.

At the moment the situation isn't perfect. There is still a lot of work to be done. The "elite" won't have it all their way any more. The poor won't get everything they want either. But, hopefully, they will get more opportunities. They won't get what they want overnight. It will be a slow process.

[scorecard]

In 2000, Thailands GINI was 43.2 and 2002 it was 42, 2006 it was 43, so in 5 years of government (2001-2006), Thaksin didn't do much.

The current figures are not a reflection of the current government, just highlighting that they must do something about it.

This kind of statistics is usually not evolving quickly, these are the latest one available for us. Today it must not be quite different.

Everybody knows that the situation cannot evolve suddenly by a miracle, so those figures are not intended to grill any government but as you underline it is for assessing the situation and for demonstrating that, urgently, a policy has to be developed for Northern regions and particularly ISSAN. It confirms that a favourable ground do exist for the "class war" and that the Elite must accept some concessions: if not, sooner or later it will finish dramatically.

We have difficulties to perceived either with Abhisit, or Red Shirts a credible solution in the short term. However a dynamic has been launched which may go out of the initial expectations and a new generation may break through. But also, at some stage Army and the Highest level may interfere and put an heavy lid on, as it has already happened in the past.

Let's please give PM Abhisit some credit. He (with Khun Korn) has already announced (maybe three months ago, but it got little press attention) an overriding policy directive aimed at: actions which reduce the gap, gain a better spread of wealth, bring the level of qaulity of life up for those on the bottom rungs, bring better opportunities for all Thais to gain better work opportunities. And they fully realize that much better quality education is the key, which is why they appointed an education reform committe which operates outside of the beaurocracy (the biggest stumbling block to actual education reform, and the committee has massive power to go ahead and make changes, to bring high qulaity education to every Thai child regardless of location of family income).

Please also note that, with all the red shirt etc distractions PM Abhisit is getting quite tough about corruption and demaning accountability, he's even remooved people who are from his own party (a first, repeat a first ever), and he's got heavy about corruption with the coalition partners, also a first!

The bottom line is that all parties have baggage, some much bigger than others, the Dems included.

I believe the Abhisit /Korn team are the best option Thailand has to make real change, both of these guys are clever, broadly educated and experienced, honest and sincere and they have shown numerous times that their aim is to, as quickly as possible, make change which makes the playing field much more level and provides better /equal opportunity for all. What they are not doing is relying on occasional handouts (a bag of rice which appears just at the right time before an election etc.

Not helping in their quest is that they have to operate from a party machine, and they are surrounded by old style politicians (the dems and all the coalition) parties who don't want change because:

1. Their access to the feeding trough would reduce massively.

2. Their chances of reelection would reduce.

Give Abhisit and Korn a chance, they can and will take Thailand into a new and much better picture.

Edited March 23, 2010 by scorecard

[Thai at Heart]

I think what a lot of "anti-elite" seem to forget is that for the "elite" to get richer (or even to keep their money), everyone (including the poor) needs to have money to spend - Consumption.

If the army or "elite" do not move forwards or they continue to interfere, then there will be less foreign investment and less spending by the poor. And the "elite" won't be making money.

The poor will continue to get ripped off by corrupt local business men (not "elite"), but through education this will be reduced.

At the moment the situation isn't perfect. There is still a lot of work to be done. The "elite" won't have it all their way any more. The poor won't get everything they want either. But, hopefully, they will get more opportunities. They won't get what they want overnight. It will be a slow process.

When one considers how for example the FDI laws and import protection laws are set up in Thailand, the "elite" so to say do not see the benefit in wealth accumulation in the country unless they are directly allocated a slice of the pie first. They have successively proved that they do not understand that developing the national wealth is in their benefit. Otherwise, they wouldn't have allowed such enormous income disparities to occur in the first place.

They consistently want to make their money first, and if there are any trickle down benefits to society it is a by product of their industry not a deliberate act.

Edited March 23, 2010 by Thai at Heart

[quiksilva]

There are a number of excellent blog posts and articles on the subject of class war (some with the Nation, some at the BP) that go into quite some detail that show that the claim of this being a "class war" is far too simplistic.

How can this even be true when the Reds themselves count billionaires, MP's, military officers, and titled aristocracy amongst their ranks? ( see here for more details).

This is not a 'class war', and even if it was, how on earth are elections going to change the current social structure?

Okay lets imagine for a while that elections are called for and say the new government makes good on their promise to eliminate the class structure(I wouldnt hold my breath for that to happen mind you), so what pray tell will they replace it with? A classless system?

The last I checked there's only form of social structure that promises that type of society, communism, and we know how well that works.. unless you happen to be el Presidente that is..

Edited March 23, 2010 by quiksilva

[Jerrytheyoung]

Let's please give PM Abhisit some credit. He (with Khun Korn) has already announced (maybe three months ago, but it got little press attention) an overriding policy directive aimed at: actions which reduce the gap, gain a better spread of wealth, bring the level of qaulity of life up for those on the bottom rungs, bring better opportunities for all Thais to gain better work opportunities. And they fully realize that much better quality education is the key, which is why they appointed an education reform committe which operates outside of the beaurocracy (the biggest stumbling block to actual education reform, and the committee has massive power to go ahead and make changes, to bring high qulaity education to every Thai child regardless of location of family income).

Please also note that, with all the red shirt etc distractions PM Abhisit is getting quite tough about corruption and demaning accountability, he's even remooved people who are from his own party (a first, repeat a first ever), and he's got heavy about corruption with the coalition partners, also a first!

The bottom line is that all parties have baggage, some much bigger than others, the Dems included.

I believe the Abhisit /Korn team are the best option Thailand has to make real change, both of these guys are clever, broadly educated and experienced, honest and sincere and they have shown numerous times that their aim is to, as quickly as possible, make change which makes the playing field much more level and provides better /equal opportunity for all. What they are not doing is relying on occasional handouts (a bag of rice which appears just at the right time before an election etc.

Not helping in their quest is that they have to operate from a party machine, and they are surrounded by old style politicians (the dems and all the coalition) parties who don't want change because:

1. Their access to the feeding trough would reduce massively.

2. Their chances of reelection would reduce.

Give Abhisit and Korn a chance, they can and will take Thailand into a new and much better picture.

It is Thai people who are going to give a chance to Abhisit and Korn, I am just an observer.

One of the poster, defender of Abhisit, has already exposed their intentions but has been forced to admit they were prisoners of their coalition and in fact Abhisit is only able (except in Education field) to present intentions which are downsized one by one by his partners!!!!

My three cents to improve the situation:

In my country, in such a situation De Gaulle was generating its own "Rassemblement", all the parties funding his coalition melted into one. Similarly Mitterand general secretary of one party was reorganising his coalition into one gathering (La Gauche).So, after they were leader of a group and they have more freedom to implement their own policy. I do understand that is is a classical political operation and that Thaksin has also used similar techniques(TRT....).

A general policy statement must engage all the coalition members and then Abhisit MUST appears as the leader with all latitude to implement decisions within the envelope of the statement.

Today, he looks very weak, a follower depending on its coalition member states of mind, so Intention = insufficient. People needs actions.

He has to prove quickly he is the Leader of the Country and his decisions must be balanced, applicable either to the Reds or the Democrats. Abhisit has to show he is the head of the Government and represents all the Thais in their diversity, and no more the Head of the Democrats. (For example, today it is a shame than the PAD judgment has been postponed several times)

The first thing a western head of State does after his election is to congratulate his competitor and announces to his fellow citizens that he represents EVERYBODY and generally if he was head of a Political party, he resigned from this position. A head of State must be over the Parties.

i am afraid the boots seem too large for Abhisit. I wish to be wrong....

[Thai at Heart]

There are a number of excellent blog posts and articles on the subject of class war (some with the Nation, some at the BP) that go into quite some detail that show that the claim of this being a "class war" is far too simplistic.

How can this even be true when the Reds themselves count billionaires, MP's, military officers, and titled aristocracy amongst their ranks? ( see here for more details).

This is not a 'class war', and even if it was, how on earth are elections going to change the current social structure?

Okay lets imagine for a while that elections are called for and say the new government makes good on their promise to eliminate the class structure(I wouldnt hold my breath for that to happen mind you), so what pray tell will they replace it with? A classless system?

The last I checked there's only form of social structure that promises that type of society, communism, and we know how well that works.. unless you happen to be el Presidente that is..

I am not sure if he would ever be able to do it, but adding the word "Social" in front of "Democrat" would position them about right.

They don't have to be communist. That is just scaremongering. By the way, according to Abhisit only last week he declared that there were no classes in Thailand. So even he can't quite see it. Of course, every kid can have access to Eton if they pay 25k GBP per year.

They are even to scared to understand quite how divided and compartmentalised their country is. I mean it is still perfectly acceptable to perceive someone's social status on the tone of their skin over here, so any move on trying to understand the "class" system in Thailand appears beyond those at the top. All they know is that they are on top.

Society can't even get past the superficiality of skin colour, so how can it start to perceive that their country is split on social lines?

Edited March 23, 2010 by Thai at Heart

[anotherpeter]

It is Thai people who are going to give a chance to Abhisit and Korn, I am just an observer.

One of the poster, defender of Abhisit, has already exposed their intentions but has been forced to admit they were prisoners of their coalition and in fact Abhisit is only able (except in Education field) to present intentions which are downsized one by one by his partners!!!!

My three cents to improve the situation:

In my country, in such a situation De Gaulle was generating its own "Rassemblement", all the parties funding his coalition melted into one. Similarly Mitterand general secretary of one party was reorganising his coalition into one gathering (La Gauche).So, after they were leader of a group and they have more freedom to implement their own policy. I do understand that is is a classical political operation and that Thaksin has also used similar techniques(TRT....).

A general policy statement must engage all the coalition members and then Abhisit MUST appears as the leader with all latitude to implement decisions within the envelope of the statement.

Today, he looks very weak, a follower depending on its coalition member states of mind, so Intention = insufficient. People needs actions.

He has to prove quickly he is the Leader of the Country and his decisions must be balanced, applicable either to the Reds or the Democrats. Abhisit has to show he is the head of the Government and represents all the Thais in their diversity, and no more the Head of the Democrats. (For example, today it is a shame than the PAD judgment has been postponed several times)

The first thing a western head of State does after his election is to congratulate his competitor and announces to his fellow citizens that he represents EVERYBODY and generally if he was head of a Political party, he resigned from this position. A head of State must be over the Parties.

i am afraid the boots seem too large for Abhisit. I wish to be wrong....

The PM in Thailand isn't the head of state. The King is.

In most (all?) similar systems (eg UK, Aus) the PM is clearly still the leader of the party that is in government.

In the US, the president (head of state) resigns as any particular elected politician (Congress, Senate, state Governer etc), but is still affiliated with the relevant party.

Abhisit is the visible leader of the Democrats. Every leader has to deal with the power brokers within their parties, even Obama. As the leader of the Democrats he is dumping some people within his party because of corruption. The Democrats are also releasing policies that will help the poor.

I agree re: PAD court cases. Getting some convictions there would give the reds less to complain about. Unless they are found not guilty of course, then the reds will come out even more determined. But court cases take a long time in Thailand. Thaksin's asset seizure case took 3 years.

[quiksilva]

The sad truth is any society there will be the haves, the have nots and the have lots. Calling this struggle a class war is incorrect.

I would guess that what the vast majority of the protesters are complaining about is that their life is hard. That they don't have equal access to a decent education, good healthcare and many of them are carrying unserviceable levels of personal debt. These, amongst others, are valid concerns that i think everybody wants to see addressed.

So why not just state that this what they want?

Why does it have to be Thaksin who provides solutions? Meet the government now, call for solutions to be implemented now and vote for your sweetheart MP at the elections when they are due.

This is not a class war by any measure, its a proxy war waged by one man who has successfully manipulated the masses.

Edited March 23, 2010 by quiksilva

[Sao Jiang Mai]

Talk about class war, did any of you see that fabulous Antoinette moment last week - Wednesday or Thursday - when Thaksin was giving his speech and told his followers that all TV channels, 3,7, 5, etc., were biased. And that if they didn't have the people's red TV they should, "stream it onto their blackberrys"! Classic. I don't remember exactly which day it was but had to wonder at his total doolaley comment.

[Insight]

So Chavalit is requesting a meeting with Prem!?

Would love to be a fly-on-the-wall for that one. What on earth is he going to propose in the name of his paymaster and declared enemy of Prem?

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Talk about class war, did any of you see that fabulous Antoinette moment last week - Wednesday or Thursday - when Thaksin was giving his speech and told his followers that all TV channels, 3,7, 5, etc., were biased. And that if they didn't have the people's red TV they should, "stream it onto their blackberrys"! Classic. I don't remember exactly which day it was but had to wonder at his total doolaley comment.

Why is that a strange comment? He needs to point out alternatives in getting the news, when the commonly available sources are either biased or banned. Facebook and Twitter would also be excellent sources.

Or so you perhaps also buy into the mindset that only barefoot rice farmers support him who barely have electricity in their bamboo shacks, much less blackberries?

[Samuian]

So Chavalit is requesting a meeting with Prem!?

Would love to be a fly-on-the-wall for that one. What on earth is he going to propose in the name of his paymaster and declared enemy of Prem?

...maybe presenting a Cookie Box?

[animatic]

Situation last month

Farmers' ire grows over inaction on low rice price

The paddy price has fallen from 9,000 to 7,000 baht a tonne. Many farmers have fallen into debt because of the lower prices.

This is from an article that cannot be linked but can be found by googling Rice Production 2010 Thailand.

I don't think there are any lies there. One report from November. I couldn't find the specific articles you quoted from so no date for those, but I assume they are recent.

In November prices were high, so the farmers planted more crops.

Prices could have dropped for a number of reasons:

- more rice on the market would bring down prices.

- the stronger baht against the US dollar would have reduced export prices.

You're correct in that it is now the Democrats job to solve. It will be difficult because it involves market forces mostly out of the governments control.

IMO, the place to solve it is by getting rid of some of the corrupt middlemen. They are the biggest problem for the farmers.

We also have the pricing problem of the stored and closer to rotting HUGE "Rice Pledging Stocks",

a hold over from Thaksin era rice scams that benefited the millers and brokers MUCH more than

the average Somchai selling his paddy. While there was 'some' intentional visible up tick to farmer profits,

because of this incomprehensible GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIZATION... now the inevitable quid pro quo,

of the plans instabilities has come home with the chickens to roost, and the held back over-stocked,

over-priced rice delivers a serious loss for 'the country as a whole' and now is threatening the market price....

Not to mention mixing in much cheaper 'neighbors stock' and 'substandard stock' with 'name brand' stocks.

So who is it that really MUST pay to keep the rice farmers in the black financially?

The millers and middlemen making obscene profits regardless of market,

or the vast majority of people running profitable business and paying taxes across the country?

Seems to me the rest of the nation pays to support the millers and middlemen,

and the farmers get the shaft either way. Pretty much disgusting.

Edited March 23, 2010 by animatic