Red Shirts To March On Bangkok Streets Again

[anotherpeter]

Well sure enough a video of the reds has appeared with some flower throwing and interesting captions.

<snipped youtube>

Make what you will.

Unfortunately, I can't read the Thai captions, so I won't try and guess what was happening in the store.

But outside on the street, besides the bunch of guys that had organised to be there (nothing wrong with that), there didn't seem to be much other support. Mostly it was people who just happened to be there (carrying shopping bags), a couple waving. Certainly not a lot of people there, and not a lot of obvious support.

[monkfish]

We should probably keep some perspective about the alleged level of "Bangkok support."

If 2/3s of the country's populace is NE Isaan folk, then it makes sense to assume that a large proportion of the Bangkok people who were cheering on the Reds would also be from that region. Furthermore, we know that almost all the service class, taxis, house cleaners, common laborers, etc., are from that region, and that Bangkok certainly utilizes these folks in these roles as well.

So..., to state that the "Bangkok people" showed support is not true. I guess it is true to the extent that you count absolute numbers..., and I guess that is what the Red's and Thaksin's argument is all about. There is no way the Red shirts do not win in any absolutely pure numbers-based democratic election. However, that is not how democratic systems work in many democratic countries, including the USA, which utilizes the electoral college system.

"There is no way the Red shirts do not win in any absolutely pure numbers-based democratic election. "

Not sure what you mean here. You have written that the red shirts WOULD win - "no way" they would "not win" - a numbers based election.

But in the 2007 election they got similar numbers of votes to the Democrats, and certainly not the majority of votes.

They did get more seats though

from wikipedia

Despite being the junta's target for suppression, the PPP managed to win 226 out of 480 of the MP seats, close to controlling the majority in the House of Representatives. The Democrat Party came in a distant second with 166 seats, Chart Thai 39, For the Motherland 26, Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana 10, the Neutral Democratic Party 7, and Pracharat 4.

[anotherpeter]

"There is no way the Red shirts do not win in any absolutely pure numbers-based democratic election. "

Not sure what you mean here. You have written that the red shirts WOULD win - "no way" they would "not win" - a numbers based election.

But in the 2007 election they got similar numbers of votes to the Democrats, and certainly not the majority of votes.

They did get more seats though

from wikipedia

Despite being the junta's target for suppression, the PPP managed to win 226 out of 480 of the MP seats, close to controlling the majority in the House of Representatives. The Democrat Party came in a distant second with 166 seats, Chart Thai 39, For the Motherland 26, Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana 10, the Neutral Democratic Party 7, and Pracharat 4.

Correct. More seats, but still not a majority.

Edited March 22, 2010 by anotherpeter

[steveromagnino]

Just regarding numbers.....

there are approx 130,000 registered cabs in Bangkok.....around 75-80,000 in action every day supposedly.

Each has on average 1.X drivers, as some driver 18 hour days, others share the cab with another driver. Assuming 1.8 that's around 140,000 cab drivers.

Based on my personal experience, I would say something like 80% of cab drivers are from Isaan. Let's assume the 20% who aren't are ambivalent to the rally.

I would guess, that 50% of the Isaan taxi drivers weren't working during the day....that's about 56,000 people straight off. Let's assume 1/4 of them come to the rally (14,000) which is a massive turnout.

Of the 50% Isaan drivers who are working, perhaps 20% come to the rally, the rest are driving. That's another 14,000.

So straight away, we might have almost 30,000 people; assuming the rally actually did manage to reach say 65,000; that's almost 1/2 of them straight off.

There are at least 100,000+ Isaan security guards; 100,000+ maids; etc etc. In fact, the transient population of Bangkok hailing from TRT hometown are more from Isaan than the north (other than perhaps some labourer/factory jobs and of course the massage parlour industry which is a white skin business, unlike its farang equivalent) and in total well over 1 million people I would guess, many in the jobs we see like construction, security, labourer, maid, factory, taxi, motorcycle, tuk tuk - reflective of the opportunities afforded with a lower education and the need to work in the offseason or to move to the city if farming and agriculture fails to pay which is seasonal work and again requires a different type of work than an office job.

It can be safely assumed that as many or more of these people can be mobilised whenever so perhaps this week could be bigger; it is surprising that the red shirts could not manage this before. Certainly going to their areas helps.

But real born and raised Bangkokians? I don't and can't see the 'love' spouted. Ambivalence, a little love, a fair bit of frustration and skepticism. Such is the bane of being the educated middle class I suppose.

My building and the other 2 large condos in the soi, there are probably a total of 1,000 residents. I can see how many walk out the street and our soi was blocked for 4-5 hours. I would guess most maids and security guards took some time to join in. I cannot recall a single resident; no doubt there were some but none I saw and there were perhaps 100-200 people I saw moving around - none in red shirts, I certainly spoke to the people in my building and unversally they were annoyed, but pragmatic; this is 'the chance for those people to do their thing, let's give them a chance' was the prevailing attitude. And I live in a middle lower class type area.

If that is Bangkok embracing them, then I hate to think what reception they would get in Thong Lor, Saladaeng or Yawarat.

As for comparing the government to the lousy Governments of upcountry twits Banharn and Chavalit. Well, the red shirts seem pretty keen to bring back Chavalit, so you don't need a proxy for those governments, you might just get your wish of THailand's worst PM returning for another shot.

As for Banharn he had publically said pre election he would partner with the democrats and would not consider PPP, basically that 2 party coalition came up slightly short (most blame CHart Thai who was given free reign to run against PPP but failed) with 205 vs. PPP's 226; so Banharn switched sides. They don't call him the eel for nothing. They also don't exactly consider him to be one of the best PMs Thailand has had, well unless you are in construction, in which case he was pretty good. Or corruption.

How the current govt is remotely similar to those governments I have no idea. Why don't you enlighten us; referencing specific policies and ministers will help for clarity. I always like to learn something based on facts, evidence and expert comment rather than personal observations drawing from meeting one person in a pub somewhere.... mostly i'm a pub researcher, looking forward to hearing words of wisdom though.

Edited March 22, 2010 by steveromagnino

[keemapoot]

^Thanks Steve, I didn't have the numbers handy, but suspected it was something like that. There is not indigenous support for the reds, period. In Bangkok.

Edited March 22, 2010 by keemapoot

[tominbkk]

Once again, congrats to the Red Shirts for keeping things peaceful. And while the blood thing was nasty and wrong, it was at least a non-violent act that succeeded in getting them some international press (although perhaps not the type they wanted).

However they don't seem to have sort of end game. Its clear they aren't going to get what they originally wanted, or what they pretended to want. What do they hope to achieve?

What would be really great and fun would be if regular people from the neighborhood started pelting the paraders with bags of pigs blood, fermented fish, feces, etc. A little taste of their own medicine! Not like they would be able to complain!

[nickynomatesbkk]

Just regarding numbers.....

there are approx 130,000 registered cabs in Bangkok.....around 75-80,000 in action every day supposedly.

Each has on average 1.X drivers, as some driver 18 hour days, others share the cab with another driver. Assuming 1.8 that's around 140,000 cab drivers.

Based on my personal experience, I would say something like 80% of cab drivers are from Isaan. Let's assume the 20% who aren't are ambivalent to the rally.

I would guess, that 50% of the Isaan taxi drivers weren't working during the day....that's about 56,000 people straight off. Let's assume 1/4 of them come to the rally (14,000) which is a massive turnout.

Of the 50% Isaan drivers who are working, perhaps 20% come to the rally, the rest are driving. That's another 14,000.

So straight away, we might have almost 30,000 people; assuming the rally actually did manage to reach say 65,000; that's almost 1/2 of them straight off.

There are at least 100,000+ Isaan security guards; 100,000+ maids; etc etc. In fact, the transient population of Bangkok hailing from TRT hometown are more from Isaan than the north (other than perhaps some labourer/factory jobs and of course the massage parlour industry which is a white skin business, unlike its farang equivalent) and in total well over 1 million people I would guess, many in the jobs we see like construction, security, labourer, maid, factory, taxi, motorcycle, tuk tuk - reflective of lower education and the need to work in the offseason or to move to the city if farming and agriculture fails to pay.

It can be safely assumed that as many or more of these people can be mobilised whenever; it is surprising that the red shirts could not manage this before. Certainly going to their areas helps.

But real born and raised Bangkokians? I don't and can't see the 'love' spouted. Ambivalence, a little love, a fair bit of frustration and skepticism. Such is the bane of being the educated middle class I suppose.

As for comparing the government to the lousy Governments of upcountry twits Banharn and Chavalit. Well, the red shirts seem pretty keen to bring back Chavalit, so you don't need a proxy for those governments, you might just get your wish of THailand's worst PM returning for another shot.

How the current govt is remotely similar to those governments I have no idea. Why don't you enlighten us; referencing specific policies and ministers will help for clarity.

Songkran mass exodus of Bangkok back to home towns mainly North east of Thailand ring any bells.

Many workers have roots in up country and if Mamma and Papa tell you to go out and support the cause you go out and support the cause.

Songkran is key to this.

If the reds can't shake the government by then many will leave for upcountry maybe to be given new orders for their return.

The country is very divided

RED vs Yellow and the troubled south.

[tominbkk]

Once the announcement was made they plan to march again next Saturday a hastily made flyer to plan a meeting in my village arrived on all the gates. It seems if they plan to venture into our little slice of Bangkapi again next Saturday they will NOT be met with waves and they will not be able to pass without a lot of extra effort.

Sounds like you want to provoke violence to a peaceful protest....

So one group is allowed to protest, but another isn't? Can't they protest that they are sick of their lives being disrupted?

That's right....I can imagine if red shirts tried to disturb my 'hood they would face quite a little blockade. Why don't they do something constructive? Maybe do some good deeds for once. We all know they'd rather waste blood than donate it to needy people though.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

<broken record for the n-teenth time> It's called a protest. Freedom of speech, freedom of assembly. Your issue is with the constitution. </>

[way2muchcoffee]

100,0000+ gathering is pretty impressive considering the circumstance these people had to travel many hundreds of kilometers considering their socioeconomic bakground. You name me a protest in USA that gathered more than 1:600 ratio in recent times.

The circumstances? They were paid for their gas. They are given free food. They are given 3 times their daily salary to not work. It is also not the farming season so there isn't much work around upcountry so those who are farmers are just getting free money. So what about those circumstances?

[lensta]

Just make fresh elections, we'll see.

Fresh elections would require a few things.

1) Agreements to cease all vote-buying efforts by all parties - punishments are already proscribed by law

2) All candidates must be able to campaign freely in every area without fear of harassment or violence. It will be up to the redshirts to guarantee this in their regions. Previous groups entering their strongholds have been victims of death threats, pelting with fermented fish, and machete attacks. This is a huge condition that must be met before any election can be scheduled.

3) Then there is the Thaksin question. There must be iron-clad agreements to cease all political attempts to exonerate Thaksin. The courts have authority in this and political meddling is unacceptable. This is probably the deal breaker for both sides. The reds won't do it. The Dems, military, and most educated society won't tolerate a Thaksin whitewash. Stalemate.

4) Not necessary or likely, but it would be good to have international observers at the next election to guarantee against electoral fraud.

If these conditions could be met elections would likely go forward in a matter of months.

What you say sounds to me fair , reasonable and balanced . If agreed between red shirts and the government , then election should proceed as soon as possible and meanwhile the red shirts go back home .

Perhaps Abhisit should propose that to the red shirts ? As honest thais in their majority i think , for sure they cannot fail to see the stalemate and the damage it does .

Can you honestly see the Thai Politicians allowing international observers at the next election? I can't for 2 reasons, They couldn't cheat and they would see it as loss of face.

[roamer]

Just make fresh elections, we'll see.

Fresh elections would require a few things.

1) Agreements to cease all vote-buying efforts by all parties - punishments are already proscribed by law

2) All candidates must be able to campaign freely in every area without fear of harassment or violence. It will be up to the redshirts to guarantee this in their regions. Previous groups entering their strongholds have been victims of death threats, pelting with fermented fish, and machete attacks. This is a huge condition that must be met before any election can be scheduled.

3) Then there is the Thaksin question. There must be iron-clad agreements to cease all political attempts to exonerate Thaksin. The courts have authority in this and political meddling is unacceptable. This is probably the deal breaker for both sides. The reds won't do it. The Dems, military, and most educated society won't tolerate a Thaksin whitewash. Stalemate.

4) Not necessary or likely, but it would be good to have international observers at the next election to guarantee against electoral fraud.

If these conditions could be met elections would likely go forward in a matter of months.

What you say sounds to me fair , reasonable and balanced . If agreed between red shirts and the government , then election should proceed as soon as possible and meanwhile the red shirts go back home .

Perhaps Abhisit should propose that to the red shirts ? As honest thais in their majority i think , for sure they cannot fail to see the stalemate and the damage it does .

Can you honestly see the Thai Politicians allowing international observers at the next election? I can't for 2 reasons, They couldn't cheat and they would see it as loss of face.

Well they have previously refused to sign an EU agreement on this as a breach of sovereignty, can't see any change next time.

Here,

[Choscura]

Thai Rak Thai

Thai Gliat Thai

Thai Rak Khon Thai Thii Gliat Khon Thai

Farang ja ngong mot luuy, Mai hai dtong son jai

Farang Thii ja mii arai waa gor ben banya orn.

translation:

Thai people love thai people.

Thai people hate thai people.

Thai people love thai people that hate thai people.

All foreigners are idiots <alternate translation: ignorant>, ignore them.

All foreigners with opinions are mentally handicapped.

This isn't our country and it's not our game. Saying that Thaksin is worse than whats-his-face is now is a moot point. they're both billionaires, so that comparison is moot. They're both educated outside of thailand- so that's a moot point too. Saying that one group or the other is better is moot. Both are using illegal means to oust politicians who may or may not care about them. Thaksin is simply notable because he's the ONLY one to have served a full term in office, and even after being ousted, people want him back because he made life easier for a lot of people with difficult lives.

Welcome to Thailand. Love it, Live it, Leave it alone.

[Publicus]

Thai Rak Thai

Thai Gliat Thai

Thai Rak Khon Thai Thii Gliat Khon Thai

Farang ja ngong mot luuy, Mai hai dtong son jai

Farang Thii ja mii arai waa gor ben banya orn.

translation:

Thai people love thai people.

Thai people hate thai people.

Thai people love thai people that hate thai people.

All foreigners are idiots <alternate translation: ignorant>, ignore them.

All foreigners with opinions are mentally handicapped.

This isn't our country and it's not our game. Saying that Thaksin is worse than whats-his-face is now is a moot point. they're both billionaires, so that comparison is moot. They're both educated outside of thailand- so that's a moot point too. Saying that one group or the other is better is moot. Both are using illegal means to oust politicians who may or may not care about them. Thaksin is simply notable because he's the ONLY one to have served a full term in office, and even after being ousted, people want him back because he made life easier for a lot of people with difficult lives.

Welcome to Thailand. Love it, Live it, Leave it alone.

All we can do is talk, ask questions among our incestous selves, post.

Nothing wrong with that really.

You think Dr Thaksin, the guy who has expertise in criminal law doesn't read this forum? Same for the government? Same for many from many professions. They all read us.

So we keep on truckin'. The Thaksin line that falang need to retire to the beach and ignore what happens here is beyond reality as we naturally express our thoughts, beliefs, conviction whatever the point of view, which I generally respect and to which I often reply.

Give it up, these hit or miss approaches by the Redshirts are buying time, same as the government is.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

I didn't ever think it was likely for Chart Thai to quit.. Newin on the other hand will quit. Let's see if he makes a similar statement of support for the current coalition.

[ratcatcher]

"This isn't our country and it's not our game. Saying that Thaksin is worse than whats-his-face is now is a moot point. they're both billionaires, so that comparison is moot. They're both educated outside of thailand- so that's a moot point too. Saying that one group or the other is better is moot. Both are using illegal means to oust politicians who may or may not care about them. Thaksin is simply notable because he's the ONLY one to have served a full term in office, and even after being ousted, people want him back because he made life easier for a lot of people with difficult lives.

Welcome to Thailand. Love it, Live it, Leave it alone.

Thaksin was educated in Chiang Mai and attended Montfort College , a private Catholic school. After attending the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School at the age of 24, he went to the U.S.A. and studied criminal justice (how appropriate) at Eastern Kentucky University. This was followed by his Ph.D. in criminal justice at Sam Houston State U.

Abhisit was born and educated in England and attended Eton College and then Oxford University. Not bad on anyone's C.V.

His English is perfect and compared to Thaksin, he appears to be an erudite, worldly politician.

By comparison, with his poor English skills, Thaksin comes across as a buffoon.

Edited March 23, 2010 by ratcatcher

[Mitker]

My factory staff is tuned all day long on a red shirts radio. Speechs would make you feel like you were listening to a Rwandese radio days before it went ugly.

Wow . . . someone has a high opinion (not) of his Thai staff . . .

I hire them according to their skills, not their political views - that I'm not to interfere with. It doesn't make me have a negative opinion of them. Rather of those who use them. If someone is abused, my contempt goes to the abuser, not the abused.

As a farang, I consider myself as just an observer with an outsider point of view and probably a broader perspective since the variety of cultures and political systems I witnessed. I definitely see a game played here with them being just a tool and I'm not sure they will benefit in any way in the medium - long term. Maybe some free mobile in the short term, no more..

Then will be the time for the bills. Huge bills, in terms of freedom of speech, HR, governance and more globally, justice. We had a taste of that a few years ago..

Edited March 23, 2010 by Mitker

[webfact]

SIDELINES

Red shirts leaders vow to cause more city trouble

By Sopon Onkgara

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- EMBOLDENED by their success in wreaking traffic havoc throughout the capital last Saturday, red-shirt leaders declared that they will repeat the action this coming Saturday, to force Prime Minister Abhisit to resign, after they refused to participate in initial negotiations.

Thaksin Shinawatra, enraged by the deadlock and the failure of his red shirts to oust the government, has become more desperate, as seen during his nightly ranting with his usual incoherence and self-delusion.

The government has exercised patience despite a series of provocative actions by the red shirts, who are maintaining their rally on Rajdamnoen Avenue with a fluctuating number of supporters who thin out during the heat of the day, leaving just a few hundred die-hards.

A proposed first round of talks to explore solutions and a possible graceful exit for both sides were spurned by the red-shirt leaders, who are demanding to meet only Abhisit and have set pre-conditions for a House dissolution.

Abhisit realises that time is on his side, while the red shirts are getting reckless as the stalemate drags on. Besides the scorching heat of the day, the Songkran festival is due next month, which will dissuade provincial supporters from coming to the city.

They will have to bear their difficulties and discomfort from now until Saturday. That's a long time for them to keep the rally going amid the bad news that some of the protesters have become ill with the dreaded 2009 flu.

Protracted rallies mean more expense and spoils that have to be shared among the ringleaders. That will not please Thaksin, whose future as a citizen of Montenegro does not look very promising. The leader of the Balkans nation is now being questioned by the opposition party over his motive in sheltering Thaksin.

Moreover, there has also been a warning from the European Union that by helping notorious criminals and not conforming to the various EU standards, Montenegro's bid for EU membership could face problems. At the same time, Cambodian leader Hun Sen appears to be distancing himself from Thaksin, making the Thai fugitive's life even more miserable.

There have been worrying incidents in the form of bomb and grenade attacks. The worst so far involves the firing of an RPG at the Defence Ministry. Luckily, the projectile hit electric wires and exploded in midair, causing only minor injuries to two passers-by.

The red-shirt leaders face pressure from many fronts. Thaksin wants quick results and is frustrated that his big funding continues with little satisfaction. As the rally drags on, Bangkok residents have become impatient; violence could flare up through abusive words and physical attacks.

The red shirts are becoming unreasonable. They even demand searches for weapons where military personnel are stationed to provide security, despite government announcements that the police and soldiers will not bear arms, in order to prevent violence from either side.

As long as the two sides will not sit at the negotiating table, a solution will be elusive. The red shirts intend to harass Abhisit wherever he goes. At the same time, the government intends to extend the enforcement of the Security Act until the end of this month, to deter the red shirts from going on the rampage.

At the moment, the government is avoiding confrontation as the economy, chiefly the tourism sector, bears the brunt of the impact due to the cancellation of business. There has been speculation that the government plans to file charges against the red-shirt leaders for treason, sedition and other criminal offences. Such action surely will spark fury and the threat of violence among hardcore red supporters.

A flash point is not remote, especially if the red shirts begin spoiling for real bloodshed. They are running out of tactics and battle cries to keep supporters at the rally site amidst increased physical suffering.

As a counter-measure, the government is at last using the media to inform the public, putting Thaksin and his misdeeds under a brighter light while making it very clear that the fugitive will not be part of any negotiations with the red shirts, due to his criminal status.

The red leaders stand to lose from their lack of credibility and positive image, especially while there are pending criminal charges to be tried in the courts. Each of them faces a bleak future with only the certainty of long legal battles. If their bail is revoked as expected, they will have a few choices - going to prison, running away or resisting arrest with arms. Either way, Thaksin's own fate does not look much different from his proxy warriors.

-- The Nation 2010-03-23

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[hammered]

PTP is seemingly becoming mopre involved in the rallies. This enables potenatial for much larger numbers. Last Saturday was helped by this.

[bulmercke]

SIDELINES

Red shirts leaders vow to cause more city trouble

By Sopon Onkgara

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- EMBOLDENED by their success in wreaking traffic havoc throughout the capital last Saturday, red-shirt leaders declared that they will repeat the action this coming Saturday, to force Prime Minister Abhisit to resign, after they refused to participate in initial negotiations.

Thaksin Shinawatra, enraged by the deadlock and the failure of his red shirts to oust the government, has become more desperate, as seen during his nightly ranting with his usual incoherence and self-delusion.

The government has exercised patience despite a series of provocative actions by the red shirts, who are maintaining their rally on Rajdamnoen Avenue with a fluctuating number of supporters who thin out during the heat of the day, leaving just a few hundred die-hards.

A proposed first round of talks to explore solutions and a possible graceful exit for both sides were spurned by the red-shirt leaders, who are demanding to meet only Abhisit and have set pre-conditions for a House dissolution.

Abhisit realises that time is on his side, while the red shirts are getting reckless as the stalemate drags on. Besides the scorching heat of the day, the Songkran festival is due next month, which will dissuade provincial supporters from coming to the city.

They will have to bear their difficulties and discomfort from now until Saturday. That's a long time for them to keep the rally going amid the bad news that some of the protesters have become ill with the dreaded 2009 flu.

Protracted rallies mean more expense and spoils that have to be shared among the ringleaders. That will not please Thaksin, whose future as a citizen of Montenegro does not look very promising. The leader of the Balkans nation is now being questioned by the opposition party over his motive in sheltering Thaksin.

Moreover, there has also been a warning from the European Union that by helping notorious criminals and not conforming to the various EU standards, Montenegro's bid for EU membership could face problems. At the same time, Cambodian leader Hun Sen appears to be distancing himself from Thaksin, making the Thai fugitive's life even more miserable.

There have been worrying incidents in the form of bomb and grenade attacks. The worst so far involves the firing of an RPG at the Defence Ministry. Luckily, the projectile hit electric wires and exploded in midair, causing only minor injuries to two passers-by.

The red-shirt leaders face pressure from many fronts. Thaksin wants quick results and is frustrated that his big funding continues with little satisfaction. As the rally drags on, Bangkok residents have become impatient; violence could flare up through abusive words and physical attacks.

The red shirts are becoming unreasonable. They even demand searches for weapons where military personnel are stationed to provide security, despite government announcements that the police and soldiers will not bear arms, in order to prevent violence from either side.

As long as the two sides will not sit at the negotiating table, a solution will be elusive. The red shirts intend to harass Abhisit wherever he goes. At the same time, the government intends to extend the enforcement of the Security Act until the end of this month, to deter the red shirts from going on the rampage.

At the moment, the government is avoiding confrontation as the economy, chiefly the tourism sector, bears the brunt of the impact due to the cancellation of business. There has been speculation that the government plans to file charges against the red-shirt leaders for treason, sedition and other criminal offences. Such action surely will spark fury and the threat of violence among hardcore red supporters.

A flash point is not remote, especially if the red shirts begin spoiling for real bloodshed. They are running out of tactics and battle cries to keep supporters at the rally site amidst increased physical suffering.

As a counter-measure, the government is at last using the media to inform the public, putting Thaksin and his misdeeds under a brighter light while making it very clear that the fugitive will not be part of any negotiations with the red shirts, due to his criminal status.

The red leaders stand to lose from their lack of credibility and positive image, especially while there are pending criminal charges to be tried in the courts. Each of them faces a bleak future with only the certainty of long legal battles. If their bail is revoked as expected, they will have a few choices - going to prison, running away or resisting arrest with arms. Either way, Thaksin's own fate does not look much different from his proxy warriors.

-- The Nation 2010-03-23

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

Observation: I have a copy of The Nation in front of me and the heading to this story is "Red Leaders Promise To Cause More Problems". Same story - different heading -

"Red shirts leaders vow to cause more city trouble" isn't quite the same as "Red Leaders Promise To Cause More Problems".

[bulmercke]

PTP is seemingly becoming mopre involved in the rallies. This enables potenatial for much larger numbers. Last Saturday was helped by this.

I agree. Everyone involved with the Red-Shirt movement was emboldened by last Saturday's protest. I envisage next Saturday's rally being even bigger and much more disruptive - unless - the governor of BKK again urges all BKK residents to stay at home unless absolutely necessary.

[Crash999]

Thaksin was educated in Chiang Mai and attended Montfort College , a private Catholic school. After attending the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School at the age of 24, he went to the U.S.A. and studied criminal justice (how appropriate) at Eastern Kentucky University. This was followed by his Ph.D. in criminal justice at Sam Houston State U.

Abhisit was born and educated in England and attended Eton College and then Oxford University. Not bad on anyone's C.V.

His English is perfect and compared to Thaksin, he appears to be an erudite, worldly politician.

By comparison, with his poor English skills, Thaksin comes across as a buffoon.

I saw an interview with Abhisit on CNN the other day where he was struggling with the questions and format- he appears much more comfortable as a diplomat rather than a politician. Thaksin, for all of his flaws, has a force of personality that commanded respect while he was in power and continues to appeal to the masses.

He may have come across as a buffoon to some, but to others (and importantly, the majority of Thais) he was a man of the people. This isn't unique to Thailand- just look at recent elections in other countries and leaders like Bush who were voted back for a second term despite obvious flaws.

[anotherpeter]

I saw an interview with Abhisit on CNN the other day where he was struggling with the questions and format- he appears much more comfortable as a diplomat rather than a politician. Thaksin, for all of his flaws, has a force of personality that commanded respect while he was in power and continues to appeal to the masses.

He may have come across as a buffoon to some, but to others (and importantly, the majority of Thais) he was a man of the people. This isn't unique to Thailand- just look at recent elections in other countries and leaders like Bush who were voted back for a second term despite obvious flaws.

I saw the CNN interview, and Abhisit considered his answers. He wasn't struggling.

Thaksin had the ability to appeal to the masses for a short time. After a while it was just propaganda and a lot of people saw straight through it for what it was. Lies.

He comes across well to the poor and uneducated because they don't get to hear or see anything else. They only get to hear the red propaganda.

And Bush scraped in for a second term because of problems with the voting systems in Florida.

[LindsayBKK]

When is a 'protest march' riding motorbikes around the streets of Bangkok?

I think they need to told they are just hooligans on bikes!

And why are most of them young Thai mafia looking guys?

Is that the image they are trying to show off?

Watching China TV they showed blood on gates & rubbish that the red group has left behind

in their 'protest'. Who pays for all the clean up? The Government of course.

Send the red group a bill.

[moresomekl]

I saw an interview with Abhisit on CNN the other day where he was struggling with the questions and format- he appears much more comfortable as a diplomat rather than a politician. Thaksin, for all of his flaws, has a force of personality that commanded respect while he was in power and continues to appeal to the masses.

He may have come across as a buffoon to some, but to others (and importantly, the majority of Thais) he was a man of the people. This isn't unique to Thailand- just look at recent elections in other countries and leaders like Bush who were voted back for a second term despite obvious flaws.

I saw the CNN interview, and Abhisit considered his answers. He wasn't struggling.

Thaksin had the ability to appeal to the masses for a short time. After a while it was just propaganda and a lot of people saw straight through it for what it was. Lies.

He comes across well to the poor and uneducated because they don't get to hear or see anything else. They only get to hear the red propaganda.

And Bush scraped in for a second term because of problems with the voting systems in Florida.

If am not mistaken i think the Florida issue was for Bush FIRST term

[anotherpeter]

I saw an interview with Abhisit on CNN the other day where he was struggling with the questions and format- he appears much more comfortable as a diplomat rather than a politician. Thaksin, for all of his flaws, has a force of personality that commanded respect while he was in power and continues to appeal to the masses.

He may have come across as a buffoon to some, but to others (and importantly, the majority of Thais) he was a man of the people. This isn't unique to Thailand- just look at recent elections in other countries and leaders like Bush who were voted back for a second term despite obvious flaws.

I saw the CNN interview, and Abhisit considered his answers. He wasn't struggling.

Thaksin had the ability to appeal to the masses for a short time. After a while it was just propaganda and a lot of people saw straight through it for what it was. Lies.

He comes across well to the poor and uneducated because they don't get to hear or see anything else. They only get to hear the red propaganda.

And Bush scraped in for a second term because of problems with the voting systems in Florida.

If am not mistaken i think the Florida issue was for Bush FIRST term

You are not mistaken. It was 2000 Bush vs Gore where Florida was an issue.

The second term election in 2004 was Bush vs Kerry. Ohio was the controversial state in this election, although not as bad as Florida in the 2000 election, but if it went the other way Kerry would have been President.

[moresomekl]

As an external and neutral foreign observer , in my views the only way to resolve the crisis present and future is for Mr Abhisit to call for early elections and for the red shirts to drop their intransigeance about the return of Mr Thaksin as PM

Here is why

1) Mr Abhisit in legal terms today is the PM of Thailand as he was voted in by the majority of the parliament which is valid under the thai constitution . However one must be blind not to see that the whole process was flawed by the dissolution of PPP by a court (for electoral fraud) ,subsequently replaced by the PTP . Then my question is : If no electoral fraud can one safely assume that PPP would not have won the majority , nobody can say that for sure , nor its contrary . That is why an early election is required . Otherwise the thai voters which were called for an election and gave majority to the PPP have now a PM opposed to the PPP (or its successor the PTP) and unless there is an election that is undemocratic . More to the point that is dividing thais and create continuous disturbance

2) The reds are correct when they say that Mr Thaksin was ousted illegally by a coup . Mr Thaksin was then legally the PM of Thailand even if caretaker . If he was not then who was ? However what would mean the return of Mr Thaksin as PM ? Dividing thais and create continuous disturbance in the street . Make the country ungovernable . Do thais want that ?

It is not for me to judge of course but from where i sit , if both Mr Abhisit and the leaders of the red shirts persist in their intransigeance nothing good for thais will result . Both parties should show that they are patriots and want the best for their country

[anotherpeter]

As an external and neutral foreign observer , in my views the only way to resolve the crisis present and future is for Mr Abhisit to call for early elections and for the red shirts to drop their intransigeance about the return of Mr Thaksin as PM

Here is why

1) Mr Abhisit in legal terms today is the PM of Thailand as he was voted in by the majority of the parliament which is valid under the thai constitution . However one must be blind not to see that the whole process was flawed by the dissolution of PPP by a court (for electoral fraud) ,subsequently replaced by the PTP . Then my question is : If no electoral fraud can one safely assume that PPP would not have won the majority , nobody can say that for sure , nor its contrary . That is why an early election is required . Otherwise the thai voters which were called for an election and gave majority to the PPP have now a PM opposed to the PPP (or its successor the PTP) and unless there is an election that is undemocratic . More to the point that is dividing thais and create continuous disturbance

2) The reds are correct when they say that Mr Thaksin was ousted illegally by a coup . Mr Thaksin was then legally the PM of Thailand even if caretaker . If he was not then who was ? However what would mean the return of Mr Thaksin as PM ? Dividing thais and create continuous disturbance in the street . Make the country ungovernable . Do thais want that ?

It is not for me to judge of course but from where i sit , if both Mr Abhisit and the leaders of the red shirts persist in their intransigeance nothing good for thais will result . Both parties should show that they are patriots and want the best for their country

1) An early election isn't "required". The PPP did not have a majority. They needed to form a coalition to get into government. Some MPs were caught buying votes. Legal and democratic processes followed.

2) Yes. Clearly the coup was illegal. If Thaksin returned and became PM, then there WOULD be a million people protesting.

Thailand has moved on from the coup and had elections.

A few thousand people protesting about ... whatever they are protesting about ... is not dividing Thais. Thaksin is dividing Thais.

The protestors main valid gripe about the plight of the poor is starting to be addressed. The government have heard, and now they need to do something about it. They have already done some things (before the protests).

The protestors aim of bringing down the government and forcing new elections is not democracy.

The protestors aim of bringing back Thaksin and giving him his money back is unacceptable to a majority of Thais.

[Wolfie]

2) The reds are correct when they say that Mr Thaksin was ousted illegally by a coup . Mr Thaksin was then legally the PM of Thailand even if caretaker . If he was not then who was ? However what would mean the return of Mr Thaksin as PM ? Dividing thais and create continuous disturbance in the street . Make the country ungovernable . Do thais want that ?

Well he was a caretaker PM, he had dissolved parliament putting him pretty much in total power, he was required to call new elections within 6mths, and 12mths later he had not done so (i maybe off slightly on the time frames) and was trying to amend the constitution to allow him to remain in power, sole power. Whilst Coup's are fundamentally illegal (they are only illegal if they fail right? ) he was trying to install himself as a Dictator, in loose terms. So the Military did have justification for removing him. They did do the right thing by scheduling elections relatively quickly... maybe not quickly enough for some (myself included)

So bottom line, and according to the Constitution at the time (and your interpretation of it), he was an Illegal PM, with regard to him failing to schedule elections within the allotted time frame. I read one analysis piece (i don't remember the source however) that suggested he should have returned to HR to declare his failure and seek his guidance on what to do next.

This is how i understand it... which of course could be wrong.

[hammered]

Thaksin is cranking up the pressure. Lots going on today.