Red And Yellow Scenario In The Next 3 Years Time ?

[cognos]

What is your guess, as to the yellow/red conundrum as it runs its inevitable course and plays itself out in the next three years, leading up to the next formal election in Thailand, and if you take sides, why?? The wife does not take sides,and feels a little sick every time the two sides protest or "clash". Many Thais don't seem to take sides, as there seems to be a lot of apathy in this long standing poitical feud.

For my part, I might just wear a red and yellow striped shirt next time I visit LOS in a few months.

signed: sitting on the proverbial fence, but if forced to choose...

[allane]

The current protest is not going to lead to anything positive, from the red's point of view. No government can give in to demands from mobs, and that includes Abhisit's.

Thailand will have an election sometime between now and the end of 2011. The "reds", or whatever that movement has transformed itself into by that time, will win, though probably narrowly. The reds will take ofice, the yellows will start protesting, and probably occupy the airport again. And again, the authorities will not cut off food and water supplies to that airport, as they ought to have done last time.

The "red" movement may splinter into two or more factions:

1. A "Thaksin personality cult", calling for his return. While he may well continue to fund this faction, I think it will fade in influence with every passing month.

2. A "pro-democracy" faction, that westerners will recognize as a political party, with a stated program for the next election. (This is the ground that used to be occupied by the Democrat's; it is a ground which they will have a hard time reclaiming now, outside of the non-Muslim south, where they normally win in any case.)

3. A radical "street protest" faction, which may continue to whatever extent the army, police and Thai public will tolerate. In my view, none of these three have very much tolerance, though I have been surprised by the lack of police thuggery in recent days. But, I think this third faction will die out with the calling of the next election, if it hasn't died before then.

[lannarebirth]

I think seeing this as a Red and Yellow issue is stupid and facile.

[GMoney]

Impossible to have a meaningful discussion on the next 3 years w/o addressing the elephant lurking in the room.

[anotherpeter]

The current protest is not going to lead to anything positive, from the red's point of view. No government can give in to demands from mobs, and that includes Abhisit's.

Thailand will have an election sometime between now and the end of 2011. The "reds", or whatever that movement has transformed itself into by that time, will win, though probably narrowly. The reds will take ofice, the yellows will start protesting, and probably occupy the airport again. And again, the authorities will not cut off food and water supplies to that airport, as they ought to have done last time.

The "red" movement may splinter into two or more factions:

1. A "Thaksin personality cult", calling for his return. While he may well continue to fund this faction, I think it will fade in influence with every passing month.

2. A "pro-democracy" faction, that westerners will recognize as a political party, with a stated program for the next election. (This is the ground that used to be occupied by the Democrat's; it is a ground which they will have a hard time reclaiming now, outside of the non-Muslim south, where they normally win in any case.)

3. A radical "street protest" faction, which may continue to whatever extent the army, police and Thai public will tolerate. In my view, none of these three have very much tolerance, though I have been surprised by the lack of police thuggery in recent days. But, I think this third faction will die out with the calling of the next election, if it hasn't died before then.

If the reds continue to support Thaksin, then they won't win the next election. They will have too many mixed messages trying to push the "class war" while supporting a multi-billionaire crook.

If they don't continue to support Thaksin, then they will struggle to present any meaningful policies.

If the reds actually support their talk of "free and fair elections" then they will have to let other parties campaign in all areas. As soon as others are in there telling the poor what Thaksin really did and didn't do, the reds will lose support.

The yellows will protest if they see large scale corruption or anything about whitewashing Thaksin's crimes.

EDIT: This is of course ignoring the elephant.

Edited March 22, 2010 by anotherpeter

[Jingthing]

We will see Thailand's first farang PM. George.

Sorry to be flip but I think given the huge variables (the one previously mentioned) as well as Thaksin, there isn't possibly any way anyone can predict what will happen here.

Edited March 22, 2010 by Jingthing

[elcent]

We will see Thailand's first farang PM. George.

Sorry to be flip but I think given the huge variables (the one previously mentioned) as well as Thaksin, there isn't possibly any way anyone can predict what will happen here.

...or what the free masons have chosen for this country?

[PanzerJohn]

I think the elephant in the room is the most important factor. Depending on who gets the job you could see attempts to rehabilitate Taksin which could lead to a very high level power struggle. Could you end up with a police/military face off, or even factions of the military opposed? I for one will not be making any non portable investments in Thailand for the foreseeable future.

[JetsetBkk]

The current protest is not going to lead to anything positive, from the red's point of view. No government can give in to demands from mobs <snip>

Already happened.

[givenall]

The current protest is not going to lead to anything positive, from the red's point of view. No government can give in to demands from mobs <snip>

Already happened.

I must have missed something what Happened? just a big party, and a lot of money spent for the participants.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Impossible to have a meaningful discussion on the next 3 years w/o addressing the elephant lurking in the room.

Agreed. So whatever we say here in absence of a full discussion will be pretty fruitless.

As for the Red's demands, I think in a couple months time some factions who were bought into the government will bail. That means elections near the end of the year. (Not making guarantees on timing obviously, it may very well be next year.)

[ciaociao]

Tarksin's party will win the next election and Tarksin will return to Thialand and all will be forgiven. No jail time and the return of his money.

[Jingthing]

Tarksin's party will win the next election and Tarksin will return to Thialand and all will be forgiven. No jail time and the return of his money.

The first one, quite possible. The others. When pigs fly.

[cognos]

If they had an election today the REDS would win by a landslide, as HE (from afar) who owns the gold rules ( as opposed to the Golden Rule).

Personally, I prefer the so why mak mak loy Thai woman in the "itsy bitsy teeny weeny YELLOW polka dot bikini"..

signed: Red Red W(h)ine ( UB 40 )

[cognos]

I think seeing this as a Red and Yellow issue is stupid and facile.

Truer words were never written..thanks for the astute observation..please enlighten and illuminate some light on this "grey" area

signed: student for life and Thaiophile

[cognos]

perhaps it is ironic ( or moronic ) that the Red guy who owns the (Yellow) gold rules

signed: Donovan ( The Mellow Yellow Fellow )

[cognos]

..but seriously, you can see why the 2 colors are so polarized according to geography, socio - economic realities..AND perception, perhaps most of all. We are all deluded ( by our perceptions ) in varying degrees, so why should this color conundrum be any different with the Thai people ?

The payoffs are happening on both sides, as the political, er.. "professional" demonstrators have so aptly shown..

..but in the "destitute" dry north, where the majority of the 65 odd million Thais live ( read 14 million in BKK and 6 or 7 million in the south), money REALLY talks ( but not on Thaksin's cel phone monopoly that allegedly "started" a lot of this).

..money talks in Chiang Mai too, where Thaksin is from, and I could only guess that the Reds are only slightly more popular there than the Yellows.

signed: all the convenient ( read: no rod tit ) Chiang Mai ring roads

[WinnieTheKhwai]

^ So.. are you guys enjoying your talk as much as I do?