How Long Before The Usd Is Trading For 10-15 Thb ?

[sokal]

Physical gold will do you no good if no one can buy it. What would you get back with it -dodgy currency?

What if you are just backing up your savings with it ? Money that you don't plan on spending ?

[sokal]

Doom/Gloom from gregb, so 10yrs is the end again?

Funny thing is I heard the same thing 10yrs ago and it seems all is well.

That is what makes it even worse now. You obviously don't study the numbers or live in Iceland.

Edited March 27, 2010 by sokal

[sokal]

Naam, I have no idea if even half of the detritus coming out of your mouth is true, but I can honestly say that if $1600 USD is pocket change to your wife then you are quite clearly living in a world that 99% of us can not even fathom. I'm sure given that kind of income Bernacke and company are your personal friends and neighbours, so I would not expect you to be able to relate to those of us who actually live on a realistic planet. Luckily, there are enough posters here to balance out your pretentious bluster.

luckily, i couldn't care less what you or anybody of the posters here (who don't know me personally) think about my financial status. i can assure you however that i know more than a handful of Thaivisa members who play in the same league as i do.

I would consider fairly big league stuff like 5 to 10 million in assets, like my parents are.

Or are you just talking salary or take home pay ?

[britmaveric]

Never been to Iceland have you?

Anyways nought will change because you obviously don't deal in reality.

Edited March 27, 2010 by britmaveric

[Jonathanpattaya]

Never. The USD is the strongest currency in the world, also the US is the most politically stable country in the world, thats why.

What absolute rubbish!

Let's not forget the US national debt. Now that's an indisputable No.1.

[TheItaliann]

i have heard many words to describe obama but redneck is a first. or was Naam having a senior moment and thinks its still 2004?

you can buy yuan in china (Duh!) or you can buy Yuan etf's...sadly, i do not know of any interest barring yuan options.

Yuan ETF? Disaster! no comments , signed Naam

So looks like just 2.02% for me (with the spreads - I'm sure Naam has access to a better spread - mid-market according to the above info is about 2.22%). And the rates indicate, as Naam pointed out, that (currently, and for 12-month forwards) this is what the market expects.

i have no idea what my prevailing spreads are because i have no intentions to invest in CNY just because some confused rednecks who were sent by confused voters to Washington think they can force China to revalue or because some expert italian investors recommend it (no offence meant!)

[jazzbo]

If I had 5 - 10 million dollars in assets and I found out that my son was blabbing about it on some public web board forum -- considering that my son is prone to blab a lot in general -- I would tell him to SHUT UP! or he will never see any of it.

[neil324]

If I had 5 - 10 million dollars in assets and I found out that my son was blabbing about it on some public web board forum -- considering that my son is prone to blab a lot in general -- I would tell him to SHUT UP! or he will never see any of it.

Don't feed the troll......my parents are rolling in it to.

[nakachalet]

it seems everyone is having similar problem....

wonder why thaivisa is not supervising this inconvenience.....

are they all at the red rally....? LOL

No edit button??? Well sorry folks, that NDF chart came out all wonky. If some mod could fix that for me, I'd appreciate it because I don't seem to have the ability to edit....

[Abrak]

i have no idea what my prevailing spreads are because i have no intentions to invest in CNY just because some confused rednecks who were sent by confused voters to Washington think they can force China to revalue or because some expert italian investors recommend it (no offence meant!)

You could look at it another way. The very fact that you cannot 'force' China to revalue will be the very reason that it has to revalue. Where is some info on NFDs?

Edited March 27, 2010 by Abrak

[Naam]

i have heard many words to describe obama but redneck is a first. or was Naam having a senior moment and thinks its still 2004?

i did not refer to Obama but to some senators and congressmen.

quote: An end to the ‘Yuan War’ between Beijing and Washington does not appear to be around the corner. Following statements by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao at the end of the National People’s Congress, indicating China’s unwillingness to act on its currency, the US Congress decided last night to use threats against the Asian giant. Unless Beijing re-values its currency, the United States would impose duties on Chinese imports. At the same time, US lawmakers called on the Obama administration to label the mainland a currency manipulator unless it changed its currency policy”.

A bipartisan bill introduced in the US Senate merges previous legislative efforts to press mainland to change policies that critics say keep its yuan currency cheap, effectively subsidising exports and taxing competing imports.

“When there's a 20 per cent or 30 per cent undervaluation that reduces the price of a product coming in, that's not fair. That's cheating,” Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow, a co-sponsor of the legislation, said. “If they're not going to do it, we're going to force them,” Republican Senator Sam Brownback added.

[Naam]

i have no idea what my prevailing spreads are because i have no intentions to invest in CNY just because some confused rednecks who were sent by confused voters to Washington think they can force China to revalue or because some expert italian investors recommend it (no offence meant!)

You could look at it another way. The very fact that you cannot 'force' China to revalue will be the very reason that it has to revalue. Where is some info on NFDs?

Non Deliverable Forwards are used to trade currencies which due to prevailing restrictions cannot be held physically outside the issuing country and/or are not internationally traded (examples: BRL, CNY). the procedure of buying / selling is -like a normal forward- a rather simple one but the minimum batches are in most cases relatively high, i.e. USD 1 million.

[Abrak]

Non Deliverable Forwards are used to trade currencies which due to prevailing restrictions cannot be held physically outside the issuing country and/or are not internationally traded (examples: BRL, CNY). the procedure of buying / selling is -like a normal forward- a rather simple one but the minimum batches are in most cases relatively high, i.e. USD 1 million.

I am very surprised that SDF prices are so low. I dont think anyone is going to force China to revalue, I just think they will choose to.

As I see it, the Yuan is very undervalued, say 30% minimum. It is so undervalued for one simple reason. It has capital controls. Now it is totally illogical to allow a currency to peg to the Central Reserve with capital controls. If they wish to keep them then they shouldnt abuse them (too much).

It is not just the US that has suffered (that is their destiny.) Think of Thailand, they try to peg to the yuan but pressure to appreciate led to vast forex losses and then appreciation anyways and a loss of competitive advantage. I thought Thailand should have introduced capital controls in the interest of free trade a year ago.

A modest appreciation say 8% is really in China's best interests and just seems a smart move. If you abuse a privilege too much you lose it.

[Naam]

1. I am very surprised that SDF prices are so low.

2. I dont think anyone is going to force China to revalue, I just think they will choose to.

1. who or what are SDF prices?

2. the market begs to differ.

[Abrak]

1. I am very surprised that SDF prices are so low.

2. I dont think anyone is going to force China to revalue, I just think they will choose to.

1. who or what are SDF prices?

2. the market begs to differ.

1. NDF rates.

2. I realize that. In fact at current prices it is virtually unanimous.

So I do realize that the market is telling me to readjust my thinking.

[Naam]

1. I am very surprised that SDF prices are so low.

2. I dont think anyone is going to force China to revalue, I just think they will choose to.

1. who or what are SDF prices?

2. the market begs to differ.

1. NDF rates.

2. I realize that. In fact at current prices it is virtually unanimous.

So I do realize that the market is telling me to readjust my thinking.

markets have been wrong many times. but as far as CNY revaluation is concerned i believe the market is presently right.

[Abrak]

markets have been wrong many times. but as far as CNY revaluation is concerned i believe the market is presently right.

Well it is probably right. But the need for a Yuan revaluation is not restricted to 'confused rednecks'. Paul Krugman, who before he became a journalist, was the founder of New Trade Theory and a proponent of free trade and globalisation is calling for 25% tariffs. Bernanke has been very vocal in his calls for revaluation.

I would have thought the ultimate end result of the US$ dollar as the Central Reserve Currency must be a trade war. It is so much in the US's best interests. I see no advantage to China to provoke it.

An article by Krugman.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/1...nminbi-wonkish/

Edited March 28, 2010 by Abrak

[sokal]

If I had 5 - 10 million dollars in assets and I found out that my son was blabbing about it on some public web board forum -- considering that my son is prone to blab a lot in general -- I would tell him to SHUT UP! or he will never see any of it.

Im not sure if you know what I meant by that. They own a reasonably profitable business for 30+ years while not having an extravagant lifestyle. Live in a regular sized house, don't drive anything that costs more then 60,000 ect.

[Naam]

markets have been wrong many times. but as far as CNY revaluation is concerned i believe the market is presently right.

Well it is probably right. But the need for a Yuan revaluation is not restricted to 'confused rednecks'. Paul Krugman, who before he became a journalist, was the founder of New Trade Theory and a proponent of free trade and globalisation is calling for 25% tariffs.

An article by Krugman.

Krugman has gone overboard and lost quite some credibility. to me it seems the beggar is accusing and threatening the one who gives alms.

[sokal]

Non Deliverable Forwards are used to trade currencies which due to prevailing restrictions cannot be held physically outside the issuing country and/or are not internationally traded (examples: BRL, CNY). the procedure of buying / selling is -like a normal forward- a rather simple one but the minimum batches are in most cases relatively high, i.e. USD 1 million.

I am very surprised that SDF prices are so low. I dont think anyone is going to force China to revalue, I just think they will choose to.

As I see it, the Yuan is very undervalued, say 30% minimum. It is so undervalued for one simple reason. It has capital controls. Now it is totally illogical to allow a currency to peg to the Central Reserve with capital controls. If they wish to keep them then they shouldnt abuse them (too much).

It is not just the US that has suffered (that is their destiny.) Think of Thailand, they try to peg to the yuan but pressure to appreciate led to vast forex losses and then appreciation anyways and a loss of competitive advantage. I thought Thailand should have introduced capital controls in the interest of free trade a year ago.

A modest appreciation say 8% is really in China's best interests and just seems a smart move. If you abuse a privilege too much you lose it.

Thailand has been using capital controls, at least that is what the TIC flows say.

[sokal]

markets have been wrong many times. but as far as CNY revaluation is concerned i believe the market is presently right.

Well it is probably right. But the need for a Yuan revaluation is not restricted to 'confused rednecks'. Paul Krugman, who before he became a journalist, was the founder of New Trade Theory and a proponent of free trade and globalisation is calling for 25% tariffs. Bernanke has been very vocal in his calls for revaluation.

I would have thought the ultimate end result of the US$ dollar as the Central Reserve Currency must be a trade war. It is so much in the US's best interests. I see no advantage to China to provoke it.

An article by Krugman.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/1...nminbi-wonkish/

What is krugman talking about ? who is going to buy US debt if China re values ? The Fed ? The Fed buying debt is not the same as having a legitimate buyer.

[flying]

The Fed buying debt is not the same as having a legitimate buyer.

Pretty funny to just think about that......but knowing the FED I bet they prefer themselves

[TheItaliann]

Forget about Greece's 30 billion bailout, New York State needs $20 billion for its $120 billion debt to get to "safety zone".

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6290A920100310

Edited March 29, 2010 by TheItaliann

[jcon]

Non Deliverable Forwards are used to trade currencies which due to prevailing restrictions cannot be held physically outside the issuing country and/or are not internationally traded (examples: BRL, CNY). the procedure of buying / selling is -like a normal forward- a rather simple one but the minimum batches are in most cases relatively high, i.e. USD 1 million. The bank at which I quoted the CNY NDF rates has a 250K USD contract minimum.

I am very surprised that SDF prices are so low. I dont think anyone is going to force China to revalue, I just think they will choose to.

As I see it, the Yuan is very undervalued, say 30% minimum. The NDF market doesn't think so - who knows (it could be wrong - I'm sure there is an arbitrage opportunity in there somewhere if you think so too)

Also, a thank you to Naam for bringing up the subject of NDFs to my attention earlier - I guess we should have discussed it in the open forum as there are some people who aren't aware of them (i.e. Abrak - and probably others).

[Naam]

Non Deliverable Forwards are used to trade currencies which due to prevailing restrictions cannot be held physically outside the issuing country and/or are not internationally traded (examples: BRL, CNY). the procedure of buying / selling is -like a normal forward- a rather simple one but the minimum batches are in most cases relatively high, i.e. USD 1 million.

1. The bank at which I quoted the CNY NDF rates has a 250K USD contract minimum.

I am very surprised that SDF prices are so low. I dont think anyone is going to force China to revalue, I just think they will choose to.

As I see it, the Yuan is very undervalued, say 30% minimum. The NDF market doesn't think so - who knows (it could be wrong - I'm sure there is an arbitrage opportunity in there somewhere if you think so too)

Also, a thank you to Naam for bringing up the subject of NDFs to my attention earlier - I guess we should have discussed it in the open forum as there are some people who aren't aware of them (i.e. Abrak - and probably others).

1. HKG bank?

2. i think that was last year when we discussed possibilities investing in BRL.

[Naam]

The bank at which I quoted the CNY NDF rates has a 250K USD contract minimum.

some banks are too lazy to find a counterpart for 250k value on the other hand, both my banks don't ask me to cough up any cash or debit my credit line. that applies to NDFs as well as to regular forwards. i remember olden times when my credit line was always debited with 20% of the total value but without any incurring additional fees.

[jcon]

1. Yes, HK bank.

2. Yes, it was last year when we spoke of the BRL - time passes too fast, doesn't it????

Plarex I would suggest you learn a lesson or two from Naam... between the noise, he's undoubtedly a bright man and if we would stop steering the thread into conspiracy/rubbish then maybe we could all learn something from the old hands who have been around the block before. I don't think anybody successful on this forum has gotten to where they are by "shouting from the rooftops" (or their mother's basement).

[neverdie]

^obviously I know heaps more than you mate.

No you don't, because I know that 2 + 2 = 4

he's a 25 year old financial genius Brit. in another thread he posted today that investing $200k will enable him to spend a relaxing life at the beach. but then, one should not blame him. i had similar wet dreams.................. when i was half his age.

Its easy to see that sokal doesnt just save his stupidity comments for the drink driving threads

[jcon]

The bank at which I quoted the CNY NDF rates has a 250K USD contract minimum.

some banks are too lazy to find a counterpart for 250k value on the other hand, both my banks don't ask me to cough up any cash or debit my credit line. that applies to NDFs as well as to regular forwards. i remember olden times when my credit line was always debited with 20% of the total value but without any incurring additional fees.

Same here. There is no movement of cash, just the profit (or loss) being credited (or debited) to the account at the close of the position. Actually, I've never used the NDF facility at my bank, but I'm assuming the same requirements across the board (and thus, same procedures). Though, I suppose I should check with the bank on that one. Do most banks actually require you to move the cash over when doing the NDF transaction? I would not feel so great with that (counter-party risk and all....).

[AlexLah]

1. Yes, HK bank.

2. Yes, it was last year when we spoke of the BRL - time passes too fast, doesn't it????

Plarex I would suggest you learn a lesson or two from Naam... between the noise, he's undoubtedly a bright man and if we would stop steering the thread into conspiracy/rubbish then maybe we could all learn something from the old hands who have been around the block before. I don't think anybody successful on this forum has gotten to where they are by "shouting from the rooftops" (or their mother's basement).

Jcon,

Have I ever participated in this thread?

Why you accuse me of this?

It is bad!