How Long Before The Usd Is Trading For 10-15 Thb ?

[popeye33]

The US National Debt is owed to China, Japan, the UK, etc... If the value of the dollar collapses, the value of that debt also collapses.

They (the lending countries) just can't afford to let the US dollar deflate or let the US go bankrupt.

I DONT THINK ITS up to foreign contries if usa goes bankrupt, they arent the ones spending money the usa doesnt have.

they are probably laughing

[Naam]

The bank at which I quoted the CNY NDF rates has a 250K USD contract minimum.

some banks are too lazy to find a counterpart for 250k value on the other hand, both my banks don't ask me to cough up any cash or debit my credit line. that applies to NDFs as well as to regular forwards. i remember olden times when my credit line was always debited with 20% of the total value but without any incurring additional fees.

Same here. There is no movement of cash, just the profit (or loss) being credited (or debited) to the account at the close of the position. Actually, I've never used the NDF facility at my bank, but I'm assuming the same requirements across the board (and thus, same procedures). Though, I suppose I should check with the bank on that one. Do most banks actually require you to move the cash over when doing the NDF transaction? I would not feel so great with that (counter-party risk and all....).

that was never the case. but in olden times your credit line was debited with 20% of the total transaction value. i did my last NDFs in BRL (2002 ?) after we bought land in Brazil and planned to retire there. although i understood the procedure when it was applied to regular forwards i never really understood why it was applied to NDFs.

[Gary A]

I refer to the Big Mac index when I want to know about undervalued/overvalued currencies. Why are you laughing? It's as accurate as any other system.

[katabeachbum]

There was a poster not to long ago that thought the euro was going to tank. Both the USD & Euro are very unlikely to tank. I think the Thai baht will be forced to be devalued long before any western's currency(maybe besides Greece at the moment).

A cold day in hel_l ..........Maybe but really doubtful. As mentioned before China is holding a lot of U.S. debt now & I think they would do everything in their power to insure that further write offs are minimized! I don't think I would bet on the USD tanking.

while the baht is going up, export went up 22% in february. devaluation not likely.

most currency traders in LOS expect 31,5 for usd as 2010 average.

[Naam]

I refer to the Big Mac index when I want to know about undervalued/overvalued currencies. Why are you laughing? It's as accurate as any other system.

i use the S.T.P.N.P. I. (Som Tam Phrik Nam Pla Index) multiplied by one 64th of the ambient outside temperature ºC at sunrise on each 1st of April (which happens to be tomorrow).

[Abrak]

i use the S.T.P.N.P. I. (Som Tam Phrik Nam Pla Index) multiplied by one 64th of the ambient outside temperature ºC at sunrise on each 1st of April (which happens to be tomorrow).

And no doubt that was just another rubbish index that told you the baht was undervalued.

I found the the D.P.I which is the Dom Perignon 1990 index which suggests that the baht is 38.4% overvalued.

[Naam]

i use the S.T.P.N.P. I. (Som Tam Phrik Nam Pla Index) multiplied by one 64th of the ambient outside temperature ºC at sunrise on each 1st of April (which happens to be tomorrow).

And no doubt that was just another rubbish index that told you the baht was undervalued.

I found the the D.P.I which is the Dom Perignon 1990 index which suggests that the baht is 38.4% overvalued.

actually my studies of the various indices let me come to the conclusion that the Baht -give or take 50%- is valued just right

[lannarebirth]

I refer to the Big Mac index when I want to know about undervalued/overvalued currencies. Why are you laughing? It's as accurate as any other system.

Last time (8 years) I was in Lugano it was about 15 equivalent dollars for a "McGruyere" burger. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the CHF may be just a bit overvalued.

[Abrak]

actually my studies of the various indices let me come to the conclusion that the Baht -give or take 50%- is valued just right

What index apart from the DPI would indicate the baht is overvalued? (You know I can quote Wikipedia to show it is undervalued.)

[katabeachbum]

I refer to the Big Mac index when I want to know about undervalued/overvalued currencies. Why are you laughing? It's as accurate as any other system.

hmm, Big Mac in Patong/ Phuket town/Hua Hin and BKK have different prices, Patong approx 25% more expensive. Which Big Mac to choose?

[morrobay]

Big Mac is just one part of the picture.

For example suppose a certain service in Bangkok cost 1000 baht and suppose that same service cost $60. in the U.S

Then just using the Big Mac formula: 1000 baht/$60. = 16.6 baht/$

[Abrak]

Big Mac is just one part of the picture.

For example suppose a certain service in Bangkok cost 1000 baht and suppose that same service cost $60. in the U.S

Then just using the Big Mac formula: 1000 baht/$60. = 16.6 baht/$

Sounds just about right to me....

[morrobay]

Big Mac is just one part of the picture.

For example suppose a certain service in Bangkok cost 1000 baht and suppose that same service cost $60. in the U.S

Then just using the Big Mac formula: 1000 baht/$60. = 16.6 baht/$

Sounds just about right to me....

I should have explained more, that the Big Mac formula is too simple to use to gauge exchange rates alone.

That many other factors must be taken into account like cost of labor and labor supply. Just because labor is cheap here and a condo sells here for $20,000 that would sell for $100,000 in the U.S does not mean the

Baht is undervalued by a factor of 1/5

[eggomaniac]

The US National Debt is owed to China, Japan, the UK, etc... If the value of the dollar collapses, the value of that debt also collapses.

They (the lending countries) just can't afford to let the US dollar deflate or let the US go bankrupt.

and Russia,,And the Mid East,,

the OP did a great job of getting an American political Topic injected into a Thai Forum by 'snagging' it to the Thai Bhat,, congrats!

While this has been allowed, y'all might well know 'my friends' about the Documentary IOUSA.

http://www.iousathemovie.com/ IOUSA the Movie boldly examines the rapidly growing national debt and its consequences for the United States and its citizens.

I suppose the American economy is so HUGE and so failed, it iS a world wide issue, including a Thai Issue?

It's only a slight shame that when the chickens come home to roost that Obama will blamed for causing the mess.

More accurately, he CAN be blamed for not fixing it. He has just thrown gasoline on the fire.

Positive change in America, and all its influences around the world, including a possible effect on the THAI BHAT, are impossible, because, Americans think freedom and wildness are synonyms; when they actually antonyms.

An arsenal in every home is not freedom, it is wildness. Even in the Wild West days, they had 'rules' about not allowing weapons in public places.

The American 'free' economy is actually 'wild' economy, which countries like Thailand 'emulate'.

Taking all the traffic lights off roadways would be wildness, not freedom, right? If America is so hung up on 'freedom' why not take down all the Stop signs at intersections. Telling ME I have Stop. tut tut

We, in most countries, have given up our freedom of protection against usury, loan sharking, by allowing our banks and politicians call this freedom; it is lawlessness. [Muslims have sane rules concerning lending.]

The mafia should sue the Government for cornering THEIR market!

To be 'free' from passing on bankruptcy to our great. great grandchildren, the devastating condition of the balance sheets would have to be dealt with. Try to bring this 'freedom' to the world and the maniacs at the pig trough, in the USA will start shouting 'freedom' 'freedom' and the uneducated, illiterate, masses won't even realize they actually mean 'wildness' 'wildness', don't touch my fat wallet!

[America has been free to become #20 in educational standards for high schoolers, #1 in crime, #11 on the UN Human Development Index. whoo HAH, good on ya!]

Oh, and Obama followed BinLaden's wishes and increased 'expenses' in Afghanistan, some say to protect the CIA's 'interests' in the cash crops. BinLaden roped the dope. He is probably selling the expensive hammers they are using to 'try' to kill cockroaches.

well back to CNN Forum The #1 cause of the huge financial mess, which never magically disappeared by Obama's lack of actions, in my humble opinion, boils down one simple fact. Americans don't know that freedom is the ability to choose to not do wrong, wildness is the desire to do whatever y'all bloody well please, dang the consequences of your irresponsible behaviour.

Edited April 2, 2010 by eggomaniac

[lannarebirth]

The US National Debt is owed to China, Japan, the UK, etc... If the value of the dollar collapses, the value of that debt also collapses.

They (the lending countries) just can't afford to let the US dollar deflate or let the US go bankrupt.

and Russia,,And the Mid East,,

the OP did a great job of getting an American political Topic injected into a Thai Forum by 'snagging' it to the Thai Bhat,, congrats!

While this has been allowed, y'all might well know 'my friends' about the Documentary IOUSA.

http://www.iousathemovie.com/ IOUSA the Movie boldly examines the rapidly growing national debt and its consequences for the United States and its citizens.

I suppose the American economy is so HUGE and so failed, it iS a world wide issue, including a Thai Issue?

It's only a slight shame that when the chickens come home to roost that Obama will blamed for causing the mess.

More accurately, he CAN be blamed for not fixing it. He has just thrown gasoline on the fire.

Positive change in America, and all its influences around the world, including a possible effect on the THAI BHAT, are impossible, because, Americans think freedom and wildness are synonyms; when they actually antonyms.

An arsenal in every home is not freedom, it is wildness. Even in the Wild West days, they had 'rules' about not allowing weapons in public places.

The American 'free' economy is actually 'wild' economy, which countries like Thailand 'emulate'.

Taking all the traffic lights off roadways would be wildness, not freedom, right? If America is so hung up on 'freedom' why not take down all the Stop signs at intersections. Telling ME I have Stop. tut tut

We, in most countries, have given up our freedom of protection against usury, loan sharking, by allowing our banks and politicians call this freedom; it is lawlessness. [Muslims have sane rules concerning lending.]

The mafia should sue the Government for cornering THEIR market!

To be 'free' from passing on bankruptcy to our great. great grandchildren, the devastating condition of the balance sheets would have to be dealt with. Try to bring this 'freedom' to the world and the maniacs at the pig trough, in the USA will start shouting 'freedom' 'freedom' and the uneducated, illiterate, masses won't even realize they actually mean 'wildness' 'wildness', don't touch my fat wallet!

[America has been free to become #20 in educational standards for high schoolers, #1 in crime, #11 on the UN Human Development Index. whoo HAH, good on ya!]

Oh, and Obama followed BinLaden's wishes and increased 'expenses' in Afghanistan, some say to protect the CIA's 'interests' in the cash crops. BinLaden roped the dope. He is probably selling the expensive hammers they are using to 'try' to kill cockroaches.

well back to CNN Forum The #1 cause of the huge financial mess, which never magically disappeared by Obama's lack of actions, in my humble opinion, boils down one simple fact. Americans don't know that freedom is the ability to choose to not do wrong, wildness is the desire to do whatever y'all bloody well please, dang the consequences of your irresponsible behaviour.

Expressed more briefly, debt is self imposed slavery if it is your way of life.

Edited April 2, 2010 by lannarebirth

[flying]

America has been free to become #20 in educational standards for high schoolers, #1 in crime, #11 on the UN Human Development Index.

Better check those ...facts?

America is about 24th in Crime of countries worldwide ( murders per capita 0.042802 per 1,000 people) Well behind places like Thailand in 14th place. Canada in 44th is considerably ahead of many Euros & Japan & Hong Kong

In fact crime has been dropping since 1979 here in the US. Given the fact that citizens bought what they did in firearms & ammo these last two years it is also not surprising to see the drop in crime these last two years also.

As for #11 on the HDI well out of 172 places I guess it is not the best nor the worst eh?

Edited April 2, 2010 by flying

[sokal]

I refer to the Big Mac index when I want to know about undervalued/overvalued currencies. Why are you laughing? It's as accurate as any other system.

i use the S.T.P.N.P. I. (Som Tam Phrik Nam Pla Index) multiplied by one 64th of the ambient outside temperature ºC at sunrise on each 1st of April (which happens to be tomorrow).

I don't think its that bad of an index, Mcdonalds is a well run company. They got the hel_l out of Iceland in a hurry, thats a good indication of how things are going there.

[VegasVic]

There was a poster not to long ago that thought the euro was going to tank. Both the USD & Euro are very unlikely to tank. I think the Thai baht will be forced to be devalued long before any western's currency(maybe besides Greece at the moment).

A cold day in hel_l ..........Maybe but really doubtful. As mentioned before China is holding a lot of U.S. debt now & I think they would do everything in their power to insure that further write offs are minimized! I don't think I would bet on the USD tanking.

Yes indeed beardog, who was that masked poster? As I said many months ago the Euro could very well be ar parity with the U.S. Dollar by years end, and on another thread I stated that it was a 50/50 chance that Germany leaves the EU and that the EU dissolves by mid 2011 I seem to remember Naam chastising me and stating that there wasn't a chance that Germany would leave the EU, well perhaps Mr. Naam might want to rethink that now?

[Naam]

There was a poster not to long ago that thought the euro was going to tank. Both the USD & Euro are very unlikely to tank. I think the Thai baht will be forced to be devalued long before any western's currency(maybe besides Greece at the moment).

A cold day in hel_l ..........Maybe but really doubtful. As mentioned before China is holding a lot of U.S. debt now & I think they would do everything in their power to insure that further write offs are minimized! I don't think I would bet on the USD tanking.

Yes indeed beardog, who was that masked poster? As I said many months ago the Euro could very well be ar parity with the U.S. Dollar by years end, and on another thread I stated that it was a 50/50 chance that Germany leaves the EU and that the EU dissolves by mid 2011 I seem to remember Naam chastising me and stating that there wasn't a chance that Germany would leave the EU, well perhaps Mr. Naam might want to rethink that now?

i don't rethink anything because Germany will be the last member that will leave the EU. by the way, it is quite embarrassing how you are trying to "massage" your forecasts to fit the situation. my comment in this respect is "even a broken clock shows the right time twice a day".

[sokal]

There was a poster not to long ago that thought the euro was going to tank. Both the USD & Euro are very unlikely to tank. I think the Thai baht will be forced to be devalued long before any western's currency(maybe besides Greece at the moment).

A cold day in hel_l ..........Maybe but really doubtful. As mentioned before China is holding a lot of U.S. debt now & I think they would do everything in their power to insure that further write offs are minimized! I don't think I would bet on the USD tanking.

Yes indeed beardog, who was that masked poster? As I said many months ago the Euro could very well be ar parity with the U.S. Dollar by years end, and on another thread I stated that it was a 50/50 chance that Germany leaves the EU and that the EU dissolves by mid 2011 I seem to remember Naam chastising me and stating that there wasn't a chance that Germany would leave the EU, well perhaps Mr. Naam might want to rethink that now?

Right now its the Euro's turn to get trashed. The pound is next and the pounds problems will spread into the US dollar. What do you think the Euro will be at when its the pound/dollars turn to get trashed ? Plus the EU has more gold then the US.

Did you bet the farm on your rant about the Euro many months ago ? I doubt it but this is the internet, you can say you did even if you didn't.

Edited May 21, 2010 by sokal