How Long Before The Usd Is Trading For 10-15 Thb ?

[sokal]

Never - only in the OP's dreams.

in 5 years, 15 to 20 bht to the dollar

[sokal]

The US National Debt is owed to China, Japan, the UK, etc... If the value of the dollar collapses, the value of that debt also collapses.

They (the lending countries) just can't afford to let the US dollar deflate or let the US go bankrupt.

Krugman recently had an interesting piece in the NYT along those lines.

That was the worst piece of economic commentary of all time that proves that Krugman knows nothing about economics.

signed Peter Schiff, Max Kieser, Stephen Roach and the staff at Zerohedge.

[JackSterling]

just have to raise the selling prices...

[britmaveric]

Never - only in the OP's dreams.

in 5 years, 15 to 20 bht to the dollar

maybe 150-200 yrs and you might have smth. I wager it will be 40-50 in 5 years!

Edited March 25, 2010 by britmaveric

[sokal]

Never - only in the OP's dreams.

in 5 years, 15 to 20 bht to the dollar

maybe 150-200 yrs and you might have smth. I wager it will be 40-50 in 5 years!

You obviously do not study economics. Look at my avatar, I am not anti American but I do know that 2 + 2 = 4. Funny that you say these things even though you come from a country that lost world reserve currency status. They must not teach you that in school there eh ?

Edited March 25, 2010 by sokal

[britmaveric]

^obviously I know heaps more than you mate.

[NovaBlue05]

I sure hope it doesn't get there. I've been kinda targeting 25 as a worse case budget

[nakachalet]

Hi (again) Heng,

I think you have family members in the gold industry in Thailand. Is any of the gold they sell in those shops 99.99%?

On this website I see http://www.thaigold.info/th/

99.99% 17,400 Baht

But I am not interested in purchasing gold on paper, only in the physical form. Do you know anywhere to buy bars?

am not remotely related to heng.... LOL

but YES, many gold shops along jaow-wa-rard district do sell physical gold at 99.99% purity.... which differs from thai pure gold at 92% purity....

but you do have to ask the managers for that 99.99% purity gold available in different weights and forms....

also do remember the asking price is a little above normal posted gold price....

and buy only from recognized and established gold shops.... otherwise, you might get 999.99 purity only on the top layer...

but why not wait a little longer.... it might be a little cheaper too.... <my estimation is purely personal and is not intended to encourage or discourage anyone to risk their savings buying or selling gold or any other commodity.... if you wish to trade gold.... better consult several licensed brokers.... at your own risks.... yes, this is an absolute and total disclaimer of any personal responsibility and liability....> ahh sooo

Edited March 25, 2010 by nakachalet

[roamer]

I'm no fan of the USA.

I recently read that the former editor of the South China Post estimated that riots and mass disturbances in China run at around 100,000 yearly.

I believe that the democratic principals that underpin the USA, flawed though they may be, will ensure the $ is still the worlds major currency when the new kids on the block implode.

[nakachalet]

I sure hope it doesn't get there. I've been kinda targeting 25 as a worse case budget

around 1960 the exchange rate was around 22 baht to 1.00 usd....

and the thai leaders were boasting that they would strengthen the baht to be on par with the usd, dollar for dollar and dollar for baht on equal value term....

at the time philippine peso was also on par with the usd, which was one peso to one usd....

with hind sight.... it was fortunate that those revolutionaries and priministers: PHOW, PRA-PART, THA-NORM and SE-RE.... were not successful in their manipulation....

would the baht sink to 22 again....?

personally, i do not think so.... there are just too many very smart thai-chinese business groups nowadays which would rather have weak bath than strong thai currency to showcase thailand....

around 30 baht to 1 usd is about most thai export company powerhouses would tolerate because of regional competitiveness....

but then again.... who am i to venture to say so.... an old irrational fool at best....

[jazzbo]

... maybe the sub-title to this Forum Topic should be Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD -- DSM IV 300.02) Support Group -- Now, who hasn't been taking their Cymbalta?

[Naam]

the only thing we know for sure is that for a long period to come the value of the Baht will be 100 Satang. anything else is poking noses and using the proceeds to make a forecast.

[sokal]

Hi (again) Heng,

I think you have family members in the gold industry in Thailand. Is any of the gold they sell in those shops 99.99%?

On this website I see http://www.thaigold.info/th/

99.99% 17,400 Baht

But I am not interested in purchasing gold on paper, only in the physical form. Do you know anywhere to buy bars?

am not remotely related to heng.... LOL

but YES, many gold shops along jaow-wa-rard district do sell physical gold at 99.99% purity.... which differs from thai pure gold at 92% purity....

but you do have to ask the managers for that 99.99% purity gold available in different weights and forms....

also do remember the asking price is a little above normal posted gold price....

and buy only from recognized and established gold shops.... otherwise, you might get 999.99 purity only on the top layer...

but why not wait a little longer.... it might be a little cheaper too.... <my estimation is purely personal and is not intended to encourage or discourage anyone to risk their savings buying or selling gold or any other commodity.... if you wish to trade gold.... better consult several licensed brokers.... at your own risks.... yes, this is an absolute and total disclaimer of any personal responsibility and liability....> ahh sooo

do you pay a sales tax on the grand total ?

[khunjake]

I sure hope it doesn't get there. I've been kinda targeting 25 as a worse case budget

That's one likley scenario although I suggest that some major intervention right at 30 will come in just like in March 2008.

[sokal]

^obviously I know heaps more than you mate.

No you don't, because I know that 2 + 2 = 4

And for people that know something about economics...

The bond market is saying that it's safer to lend to Warren Buffett than the US government.

Two-year notes sold by the billionaire's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. in February yield 3.5 basis points less than Treasuries of similar maturity, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Procter & Gamble Co., Johnson & Johnson, and Lowe's Cos. debt also traded at lower yields in recent weeks, a situation former Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. chief fixed-income strategist Jack Malvey calls an "exceedingly rare" event in the history of the bond market.

Edited March 26, 2010 by sokal

[PeaceBlondie]

The US dollar will sell for one baht or for 150, when I enjoy som tam and speak fluent Thai.

[Naam]

^obviously I know heaps more than you mate.

No you don't, because I know that 2 + 2 = 4

he's a 25 year old financial genius Brit. in another thread he posted today that investing $200k will enable him to spend a relaxing life at the beach. but then, one should not blame him. i had similar wet dreams.................. when i was half his age.

[TheItaliann]

Like throwing more money towards your gambling addicted in laws.

I sure hope it doesn't get there. I've been kinda targeting 25 as a worse case budget

That's one likley scenario although I suggest that some major intervention right at 30 will come in just like in March 2008.

Edited March 26, 2010 by TheItaliann

[sokal]

^obviously I know heaps more than you mate.

No you don't, because I know that 2 + 2 = 4

he's a 25 year old financial genius Brit. in another thread he posted today that investing $200k will enable him to spend a relaxing life at the beach. but then, one should not blame him. i had similar wet dreams.................. when i was half his age.

i revised it up to 350k and I also said 200k would be the bare minimum if you like to cheap out. Also, i never said a relaxing life, what i mean is that if you had 200k invested you would not need to worry as much about working. You could make $1600 a month off of 200k, it would not be that easy but it could be done, how long it would last is another story but you are the one that thinks the financial system is on solid footing.

Edited March 26, 2010 by sokal

[britmaveric]

^obviously I know heaps more than you mate.

No you don't, because I know that 2 + 2 = 4

he's a 25 year old financial genius Brit. in another thread he posted today that investing $200k will enable him to spend a relaxing life at the beach. but then, one should not blame him. i had similar wet dreams.................. when i was half his age.

Indeed - least I am more realistic.

[VegasVic]

^but you forget Europe is near bust and China will be next. So I don't see how the mentality - everyone is in the same boat so to speak. Let's not delude ourselves to think that they aren't.

BTW - Yanks could say fk it and not give a penny more. The country is pretty self sufficient when it comes to natural resources. Sure would it mean a diff way of living why not? However like I said I don't think it will ever come to that because this is a world based economy - you fk one power house over pretty good, you end up affecting us all.

Well stated Brit The USD index is around 82ish currently and is poised for a run into the 90's very soon, the Euro and the Pound are in far more danger than the USD over the next 12-18 months, and as far as the U.S.A. just renigging on their debt and going isolationist it will not likely happen as you pointed out but if any major nation could do somthing like that it would be the U.S. On top of all the fertile farmland in the midwest and Cali, the U.S. has a lions share of the worlds fresh water reserves and has around 300years of coal production in addition to the shale oil resererves on the west side of the rockies which has more crude locked in it than all of the oil underneath the midlleeast sands. Of course the big "IF" out there currently is the very real possibility that China is one giant bubble just ready to burst, if this occurs then the USD will be sitting pretty for many many years to come! Getting back to the OP's projection on the Baht value measured in Dollar terms 5 years from now, who cares, after all the Baht is an inconsequential currency in worldwide economic terms if the Baht ever did come close to those projections it would have zero effect on life in the U.S.A., but would shut down the export and tourisim sectors in Thailand overnight, and depression would follow Perhaps the OP might want to think about what he is posting about before hitting the add reply button next time

[Naam]

^obviously I know heaps more than you mate.

No you don't, because I know that 2 + 2 = 4

he's a 25 year old financial genius Brit. in another thread he posted today that investing $200k will enable him to spend a relaxing life at the beach. but then, one should not blame him. i had similar wet dreams.................. when i was half his age.

i revised it up to 350k and I also said 200k would be the bare minimum if you like to cheap out. Also, i never said a relaxing life, what i mean is that if you had 200k invested you would not need to worry as much about working. You could make $1600 a month off of 200k, it would not be that easy but it could be done, how long it would last is another story but you are the one that thinks the financial system is on solid footing.

don't put words in my mouth i never said. but today i say that my finances are on a diversified and solid footing. i don't deny that people can make a decent living in Thailand with an income of 1,600 dollars a month and achieving a 10% yield is possible too. but that is all relative (to each his own) and equivalent to the pocket money my wife draws.

your problem is that you are still a poor young boy and to compensate some complex you act as if you have ingested financial wisdom with a big ladle and call people like Krugman, Bernanke, central bankers et al idiots. with that behaviour you might impress some thai girlfriend but not even the most ignorant participant in this forum.

[Jonathanpattaya]

The figures are so mind boggling it really is academic.

You and everyone else might as well take a guess because that is about as good as it will get.

[el jefe]

"In 2015 alone, the estimated interest due - $533 billion - is equal to a third of the federal income taxes expected to be paid that year, said Charles Konigsberg, chief budget counsel of the Concord Coalition, a deficit watchdog group."

This is around the time when the baby boomers start retiring and the government has to find the money it spent.

By definition a baby boomer is anyone born in 1946 or later. As such, many have already retired and started to collect social security.

American's savings rates are at the lowest since the end of World War II.

That's not true either. the American consumer has increased their savings rate substantially since the economic crisis began. That's part of the current problem -- the consumer needs to spend more. unfortunately, all of the consumers' savings has been made up for by increased govt spending. It's not the same thing and unless you understand the difference you shouldn't be making bold forex predictions.

Does anyone see the irony in someone called "The Italian" talking about the US going bankrupt when Italy's financial problems are far worse? When Italy goes bankrupt, will anyone notice?

[PeaceBlondie]

The extremely low US savings rate is a myth.

[DragonQuest]

Never. The USD is the strongest currency in the world, also the US is the most politically stable country in the world, thats why.

[TheItaliann]

U.S. Savings Rate Falls to Depression-Era Levels: Chart of Day

Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Government deficits have caused the U.S. savings rate to turn negative for the first time since the Great Depression, and the gap is widening even as households and companies put away more money than ever before.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows net savings, adjusted for depreciation and changes in the value of business inventories, as a percentage of gross income. This rate is provided by the Commerce Department on a quarterly basis since 1947, when the chart begins. Annual figures go back to 1929.

The savings shortfall widened to negative 2.3 percent in the first three quarters of last year from negative 0.2 percent in all of 2008. Before 2008, there hadn’t been a full-year drop since 1934, the last year of a four-year period when rates were below zero.

Deficit spending by the federal government reduced net savings at an annual rate of $1.33 trillion during last year’s third quarter. State and local government deficits widened the gap by another $14.9 billion. At the same time, personal and corporate savings increased by a record $983 billion.

Health-care outlays represent “the key for savings” in the next few years, according to Michael Mandel, president of South Mountain Economics. The former chief economist at BusinessWeek magazine -- now owned by Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News -- published a similar chart two days ago on his Innovation and Growth blog.

“The U.S. will be stuck between a rock and a hard place” if costs keep soaring, Mandel wrote yesterday in an e-mail. “If health-care reform manages to restrain spending, then we’ll see net national savings eventually head upwards.”

(To save a copy of the chart, click here.)

To contact the reporter on this story: David Wilson in New York at [email protected]

Last Updated: January 6, 2010 11:00 EST

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aexjnfkHISt0

Edited March 26, 2010 by TheItaliann

[TheItaliann]

You guys might want to look at history. There were quite a few "USAs"

Edited March 26, 2010 by TheItaliann

[TheItaliann]

I am a dual citizen, American and Italian.

Yes, you are right, quite a few European countries are going bankrupt. Greece/UK.

Makes you wonder why all of you are claiming that the World is going to eat a trillion or two of USD debt every year like its strawberry cake.

"In 2015 alone, the estimated interest due - $533 billion - is equal to a third of the federal income taxes expected to be paid that year, said Charles Konigsberg, chief budget counsel of the Concord Coalition, a deficit watchdog group."

This is around the time when the baby boomers start retiring and the government has to find the money it spent.

By definition a baby boomer is anyone born in 1946 or later. As such, many have already retired and started to collect social security.

American's savings rates are at the lowest since the end of World War II.

That's not true either. the American consumer has increased their savings rate substantially since the economic crisis began. That's part of the current problem -- the consumer needs to spend more. unfortunately, all of the consumers' savings has been made up for by increased govt spending. It's not the same thing and unless you understand the difference you shouldn't be making bold forex predictions.

Does anyone see the irony in someone called "The Italian" talking about the US going bankrupt when Italy's financial problems are far worse? When Italy goes bankrupt, will anyone notice?

[PeaceBlondie]

When I researched the USA personal savings rate on the net, it's obvious that lots of factors were ignored. I raised six kids, had a non=working spouse, went through a divorce, lost my home...and retired at 56 from a federal job. Your mileage will differ.