Reds Might Have Shot Themselves In The Foot

[webfact]

ANALYSIS

Reds might have shot themselves in the foot

By Tulsathit Taptim

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- It was a do-or-die. The red shirts, in seizing a major traffic and business centre of Bangkok yesterday, were hoping to ignite a political dynamite that could blow away the Abhisit government's legitimacy.

But their leaders must also have been aware of the opposite scenario: the tens of thousands of protesters might be in effect telling Bangkokians to vote Democrat whenever the next election comes.

The movement won a battle, but probably at the price of the ultimate war.

The seizure of the Rajprasong intersection created a huge impact, but like a knife it cuts both ways.

The attempt to remind everyone about the occupation of the Suvarnabhumi Airport in November, 2008 was not that wise given two key differences between then and now - the Democrats were not the ones who took the airport, and, unlike the yellow shirts before them, the reds have nobody to fall back on.

During the airport seizure, the military was looking the other way, but this time the Democrat government was mapping out responses from inside the 11th Infantry Regiment headquarters.

At that time, the People Power Party was staring dissolution in the face, but this time the Democrats had no pending court case, at least not yet.

Pheu Thai MPs must be gritting their teeth. If yesterday saw a red-shirted victory, it was definitely not for them. Democrats and New Politics candidates will fight it out in the next election in Bangkok.

It was a peculiar situation as the red shirts' House dissolution demand was made with a Pheu Thai sweeping election triumph in mind. The red shirts, however, were throwing everything they got at the government, and election success in Bangkok may not matter that much.

The threat to "visit" Silom business district today confirmed that the protesters are on a kamikaze mission.

But much will depend on what Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva decides or has decided to do.

Calls for him to "enforce the law" became the loudest yesterday, and the louder they are, the more his leadership will be questioned.

If no action was taken last night, he will be under immense pressure from frustrated Bangkokians today.

His security forces, at press time, seemed to decide against any harsh measure, probably a smart move as the numbers at the intersection were still large late last night, making peaceful dispersal impossible.

If anything, the political crisis yesterday kept its true, divisive nature. Red sympathisers saw the Rajprasong seizure as a great lesson for those who tolerated the Suvarnabhumi Airport occupation by the yellow shirts.

Others asked if "two wrongs can't make a right", what "three wrongs can do to Thailand" then.

An ill-looking Thaksin emotionally thanked his supporters during a phone-in to the new rally site.

His display of overwhelming gratefulness, however, could be a signal that he knew what lies ahead.

The man himself had for long gone past the point of no-return, but an experienced politician like him must have known the ramifications awaiting his followers.

If it had been hard for the red shirts to turn back, it became almost impossible yesterday.

-- The Nation 2010-04-04

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[siampolee]

Remember the old adage ?

Slowly slowly catchee monkey

The government is using that theory and slowly but surely the Red Shirt Brigade are arousing public hostility against themselves, the popularity of the movement is being severely damaged, indeed self inflicted wounds otherwise known as suicide

Edited April 4, 2010 by siampolee

[johndpoole]

What is so sad is that the Reds could have walked away as winners after the talks with the PM. They not only should have gained credibility through these talks but also should have gone back home knowing they got the PM to agree to hold elections a year early as well as dissolving the house. Instead they now look like a bunch of crazed idiots whose leader is leading them to a slaughter.

Had they gone home and moved to intelligent rhetoric, they would be sitting so strong right now in the hearts and minds of the Thai people.

[tlongdon]

As well as bringing BKK to a standstill (yet again) adding another bullet to the gun pointing at the foot, I don't think too many people would have been overly-impressed with the call to bring empty bottles to Bangkok, to fill with petrol, to be used to kill the privy council, etc.

Classy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NTRBxEDp7w

(with subtitles in English)

[LuckyFive8888]

What is so sad is that the Reds could have walked away as winners after the talks with the PM. They not only should have gained credibility through these talks but also should have gone back home knowing they got the PM to agree to hold elections a year early as well as dissolving the house. Instead they now look like a bunch of crazed idiots whose leader is leading them to a slaughter.

Had they gone home and moved to intelligent rhetoric, they would be sitting so strong right now in the hearts and minds of the Thai people.

their leaders don't want to waste time, get the frozen asset back lew lew!!!

[johndpoole]

What is so sad is that the Reds could have walked away as winners after the talks with the PM. They not only should have gained credibility through these talks but also should have gone back home knowing they got the PM to agree to hold elections a year early as well as dissolving the house. Instead they now look like a bunch of crazed idiots whose leader is leading them to a slaughter.

Had they gone home and moved to intelligent rhetoric, they would be sitting so strong right now in the hearts and minds of the Thai people.

their leaders don't want to waste time, get the frozen asset back lew lew!!!

The problem is that they are morons to think their demands will ever be met and fail to understand they are being set up by Thaksin in hopes the gov't will use a heavy hand against them. The problem is that a: they have already lost on the 15-day issues as we are now past 15 days. b: now the people are fed up with the reds and want the government to take whatever steps are needed to bring back every day life in BKK.

[geriatrickid]

Although all of the above comments are technically correct, they just don't apply. Bangkok is a world away for most Thais. the besieged areas represent a small part of bangkok. For the majority of Thais and Bangkok residents life has gone on with no disruption. If people do not feel the pain of such disruptions they will forget the events over time. Human nature at play I believe.

in respect to the negotiations, the reds didn't lose anything, but they did hold their own. They could be seen as negotiating equals to the government. There was no intent by the government to negotiate anything. Instead it was to show the government was listening and it acted to calm the political atmosphere. On that PM Abhisit was successful.

So far the government has handled this right. Better a few more days of patience than the mayhem, violence, death and property destruction that will come with an intervention.

[kblaze]

I read on here that they threatened to come to Silom today? Any source or confirmation of that? I work today in the sathorn financial district and im just curious if we will have to shut down.

[Meridian007]

What is so sad is that the Reds could have walked away as winners after the talks with the PM. They not only should have gained credibility through these talks but also should have gone back home knowing they got the PM to agree to hold elections a year early as well as dissolving the house. Instead they now look like a bunch of crazed idiots whose leader is leading them to a slaughter.

Had they gone home and moved to intelligent rhetoric, they would be sitting so strong right now in the hearts and minds of the Thai people.

Exactly, but it wasn't what Thaksin wanted. This is why I can't understand how the Thaksin apologists can mimic the red leaders in saying that this isn't about Thaksin. It always has been, and always will be until they forcefully separate themselves from him. Very sad.

[rogerdee123]

I agree with the other posts here. The Reds are self-destructing. The Govt need to be sure the majority understands that the Govt MUST crack down on them before actually doing it. And this is happening. Not only with the Thai majority here in Thailand. Some of the international media have been misinterpreting this situation as a democracy movement (i.e. a falling for Thaksin's heavily financed propaganda machine) and I have noticed that in the last couple of days that seems to be changing.

Of course they should have quit when they were ahead. THaksin should have quite while he was ahead. If this was a REAL political movement they probably would have. But this is intended by the Red leadership & Thaksin to be a fight to the bitter end. Democracy and those high minded ideals are only a facade. Who in their right mind who had experienced Thaksin's govt (and I mean MORE experience than simply being on the receiving end of hand-outs) could think that Thaksin believes in democracy? Watching and listening to the Red leaders is also clear to anyone that they have no idea what democracy is and don't practice it themselves in their "leadership" roles. It's all or nothing for them.

And this includes amnesty for Thaksin's and his return of course. But also includes a fight for "amnesty" for some of the other Red leaders. They have to win or face the music which means loss of face and possible jail.

If the Reds had any sense and if they were really a political movement they would leave Bangkok RIGHT NOW and start churning out their usual inane propaganda about how they "won" and faced down the Govt .... of course without mentioning what they "lost".

[Meridian007]

Although all of the above comments are technically correct, they just don't apply. Bangkok is a world away for most Thais. the besieged areas represent a small part of bangkok. For the majority of Thais and Bangkok residents life has gone on with no disruption. If people do not feel the pain of such disruptions they will forget the events over time. Human nature at play I believe.

in respect to the negotiations, the reds didn't lose anything, but they did hold their own. They could be seen as negotiating equals to the government. There was no intent by the government to negotiate anything. Instead it was to show the government was listening and it acted to calm the political atmosphere. On that PM Abhisit was successful.

So far the government has handled this right. Better a few more days of patience than the mayhem, violence, death and property destruction that will come with an intervention.

It does apply if you have seen first hand the move from support or disinterest in the beginning of March, to the open derision now that is expressed by Bangkokians from all over the city. This has been viewed as an attack against all of them, because they have made the sin of wanting to live in Bangkok. Even those who are not middle class, and are originally from Issan are complaining about the reds. Of course this isn't 100%, but I've heard more anger and less support from many walks of life in many areas around Bangkok for just over a week now.

You are correct that they will probably forget the anger that they feel now, but I think a feeling of dislike will remain.

Edited April 4, 2010 by Meridian007

[CWMcMurray]

Did they ever have a chance in winning the election in Bangkok? Do you really thing this is being done to win over Bangkok voters?

It may be possible that their upcountry supporters may like seeing them on the news "taking over Bangkok"... the whole "sticking it to the rich Bangkokians" thing may actually be applauded in many areas of the country.

Also, since the up country folks are not being inconvenienced in anyway it is unlikely that they are "shooting themselves in the foot" with the voters who are likely to be voting for them.

[dobadoy]

What is so sad is that the Reds could have walked away as winners after the talks with the PM. They not only should have gained credibility through these talks but also should have gone back home knowing they got the PM to agree to hold elections a year early as well as dissolving the house. Instead they now look like a bunch of crazed idiots whose leader is leading them to a slaughter.

Had they gone home and moved to intelligent rhetoric, they would be sitting so strong right now in the hearts and minds of the Thai people.

You're dead right, John. Just goes to show their leaders shoudn't be running the show.

They had already won a victory but the pride of Jatumporn, Veera and The Weng wasted all that time, sweat and effort of the people they claim to represent.

[geovalin]

The Nation analysis "Bangkokians are upset against the stinking people of the country side who are happy" is wrong.

SOME Bangkokians are upset but more and more Bangkokians begin to stink red.

Even in Chatuchak area which is not poor, more and more people wear red in the sois.

An alternative analysis is to tell that now it's: "Bangkok city center" is upset against country side + Bangkok suburbs.

[dobadoy]

Who in their right mind who had experienced Thaksin's govt (and I mean MORE experience than simply being on the receiving end of hand-outs) could think that Thaksin believes in democracy? Watching and listening to the Red leaders is also clear to anyone that they have no idea what democracy is and don't practice it themselves in their "leadership" roles. It's all or nothing for them.

Thats exactly it! And I hope the democrats make full political capital out of all the vast anti-democratic behaviour of the reds when election campaigning comes around.

[losworld]

Give them an inch and they want a mile (kilometer in Tland). They made clear progress for their concerns and those of the poor farmers in the North but it is not about these people. It is about Thaksin getting back his money. Very sad they cannot see through this. They need to dump their leaders and get new ones and carry this forward as a grass roots political movement of the people not that of an Aristocratic demagogue.

[bubba]

I just saw a report that there are not many people in Ratchaprasong this morning. It sort of makes sense, as there is another aspect here of the reds shooting themselves in the foot.

Many of the reds on the street are paid to be there. I know they came through my soi asking for people to sign up for 500 baht/day last weekend, although nobody here admits to signing up. Once things reach a certain point, such as being arrested and facing a year in prison, the recruits that are paid by the reds will begin to wonder whether all this is really worth 500-1000 baht/day. Suddenly, it all becomes much less of a party and some easy money.

[webfact]

Live updates on today's rally/events

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Bangkok-Red-...nd-t353066.html

[Meridian007]

The Nation analysis "Bangkokians are upset against the stinking people of the country side who are happy" is wrong.

SOME Bangkokians are upset but more and more Bangkokians begin to stink red.

Even in Chatuchak area which is not poor, more and more people wear red in the sois.

An alternative analysis is to tell that now it's: "Bangkok city center" is upset against country side + Bangkok suburbs.

Huh? Do we live in the same city? Are you sure that you didn't just see one of their marches? As I said in my post above, I haven't seen a wholesale move away from the red shirt movement, but the frustration and anger has been growing for the past week or so.

For those below middle class, who have moved here from Issan, I think they are also getting frustrated with the Issan mentality that if you dare move away from Issan to Bangkok, you must be a bad person. Watch some of the Luk Thuung videos that demonize those who dare try to raise themselves above the S.E.S. of their parents. There are many variables at play here, but I think a growing majority of those who live in Bangkok have had enough.

On the other hand, I agree with CWMcMurray, I think the reds are preaching to the choir, and don't care about garnering votes in Bangkok.

[Pooklook]

These are some photos I took yesterday around Central World.

The main stage was set up there.

The protest stretched past Siam BTS and toward Pratunam.

Most of the businesses in the area were closed.

"Red in the Land" is printed on many of the shirts that are being sold.

[Lancelot]

So far the government has handled this right. Better a few more days of patience than the mayhem, violence, death and property destruction that will come with an intervention.

I would agree. I believe the Red Shirts are seeking a confrontation and -so far- the government has refused to give them one.

[Phuket1]

So 100.000 republicans occupy times square NY protesting against Obama. You tell me they let them there because its a democracy. B..it they will be wacked out of the city if they don't go away. Time for Abhisit to act!

[losworld]

So 100.000 republicans occupy times square NY protesting against Obama. You tell me they let them there because its a democracy. B..it they will be wacked out of the city if they don't go away. Time for Abhisit to act!

Yes this is the ironic thing. A lot of posters seem to think the Gov't should not intervene and that this would be allowed in the West. I say try this type of behavior or taking an airport in London or New York and you will first see police with tear gas and rubber bullets followed by military with real bullets. In many ways these open demonstrations illustrate just how democratic and undemocratic Thailand can be at the same time.

[givenall]

All I know not much money will be going to parents in Issan. They truism is dead and all these gals so call the models and clubs, hair dressers (you know what I mean) will not be able to send any money home. So the real losers are again the Red Shirts

[yesdavy]

I just saw a report that there are not many people in Ratchaprasong this morning. It sort of makes sense, as there is another aspect here of the reds shooting themselves in the foot.

Many of the reds on the street are paid to be there. I know they came through my soi asking for people to sign up for 500 baht/day last weekend, although nobody here admits to signing up. Once things reach a certain point, such as being arrested and facing a year in prison, the recruits that are paid by the reds will begin to wonder whether all this is really worth 500-1000 baht/day. Suddenly, it all becomes much less of a party and some easy money.

Just curious, bubba, since you have been here a long time, what is this issue about the demonstrators being paid? A lot of others in these forums have ranted about them being paid. Wouldn't you think that if money is their motivation, the PM would be smart enough to just pay them to go home and expose their lack of allegiance?

[khunjamespittman]

No thanks, The Nation.

I believe the job of a journalist is record the facts. I see precious few facts and lots of opinion. I suggest that your try doing your job. Leave the analysis to us!

The readers don't need your bias and skewed analysis. We are perfectly capable of doing our own analysis.

If you insist on providing your views, please label them as propaganda for full transparency.

[way2muchcoffee]

Just curious, bubba, since you have been here a long time, what is this issue about the demonstrators being paid? A lot of others in these forums have ranted about them being paid. Wouldn't you think that if money is their motivation, the PM would be smart enough to just pay them to go home and expose their lack of allegiance?

In what world would a government pay protesters to leave and illegal demonstration? Certainly not this one.

[mca]

I say try this type of behavior or taking an airport in London or New York and you will first see police with tear gas and rubber bullets followed by military with real bullets.

Oh please.

[Meridian007]

I just saw a report that there are not many people in Ratchaprasong this morning. It sort of makes sense, as there is another aspect here of the reds shooting themselves in the foot.

Many of the reds on the street are paid to be there. I know they came through my soi asking for people to sign up for 500 baht/day last weekend, although nobody here admits to signing up. Once things reach a certain point, such as being arrested and facing a year in prison, the recruits that are paid by the reds will begin to wonder whether all this is really worth 500-1000 baht/day. Suddenly, it all becomes much less of a party and some easy money.

Just curious, bubba, since you have been here a long time, what is this issue about the demonstrators being paid? A lot of others in these forums have ranted about them being paid. Wouldn't you think that if money is their motivation, the PM would be smart enough to just pay them to go home and expose their lack of allegiance?

It would be nice if that were possible, but there are two fundamental problems with that. First, the red leadership would demonize the government for it much more than the government has demonized them for it. Secondly, the reds would state that anyone who accepted is "not Thai" and a "traitor", so that none of the protesters could accept it without a loss of face. The reds have been generally secretive about the handouts, (aside from that one youtube video), so an overt handing out of money would be an insult. You can do anything here, but you have to keep it hidden so that you seem the very paradigm of innocence and purity!

[Ijustwannateach]

^Every single Thai I have spoken with about these current events- whether from Isaan or Bangkok, rich or poor, pro-red-shirt or wish-they-would-go-home, tells me the protesters are being paid.

As far as this 'not having affected anyone'- a good friend of mine lost half a day of work yesterday- and he's from 'red country'- and a business owner I know has closed her business a total of about 10-15 days over the last few months. She says it's the worst time in 7 years for her- she still has to pay rent even if she isn't making money. I would be working more myself if it weren't for this silliness.