Bangkok Showdown: Clashes Seem Inevitable Now

[elcent]

Today, police arrested two red guards with Molotov cocktails

[jdinasia]

Today, police arrested two red guards with Molotov cocktails

Hmmm I was just speaking about Arisman's threats with some friends .. they said that today would be the day that the reds escalate things. (They are no more "in the know" than any other casual observer)

[BKjohn]

Today, police arrested two red guards with Molotov cocktails

Hmmm I was just speaking about Arisman's threats with some friends .. they said that today would be the day that the reds escalate things. (They are no more "in the know" than any other casual observer)

Seems logical since the arrest warrents have been issued for the red shirt leaders they will have to escalate things or risk getting nicked. And if the government does not respond with force, Mr. T. will be packing his suitcase and get ready to return.

The big question is, will the military follow orders to move against the protesters if given ?

[elcent]

I got a strange feeling about the move that police was replaced by army at Thaicom and an emergency order has been issued.

How does that fit with Anupongs (and other top brass) statement of not using force?

It could happen that we'll face a communication breakdown today, unless Anupong is willing to defend basic necessary infra structures like Thaicom.

[LuckyLew]

Just a thought

If all the protesters are moving out to Pathum Thani.

Why do the police and army move into Rajprason and

take down stage and make it so that the area cannot

be taken over again by the protestors when they return?

Just a thought

I have not been down to the protest sites .. but this seems simple enough

Do the reds leave are group of red gaurds to stop this from happening?

How many?

Sure not enough to prevent their stages and what not to be removed

[jdinasia]

Today, police arrested two red guards with Molotov cocktails

Hmmm I was just speaking about Arisman's threats with some friends .. they said that today would be the day that the reds escalate things. (They are no more "in the know" than any other casual observer)

Seems logical since the arrest warrents have been issued for the red shirt leaders they will have to escalate things or risk getting nicked. And if the government does not respond with force, Mr. T. will be packing his suitcase and get ready to return.

The big question is, will the military follow orders to move against the protesters if given ?

I think the answer is "Yes and No". I do not think that the military will respond with force FIRST. I do think that they will respond with force if attacked. The question really is, will they hold the line that is drawn and let themselves be attacked?

[bubba]

Twitter now returns a more or less blank page for me now, unless I go through VPN. Appears to have been blocked....is anyone else seeing this now?

It's behaving strange since days now.

Anyway, if the gov loses momentum to stop the red madness the reds will regroup in high numbers again and it could well go into Songkran holidays or even longer.

Any idea how many are out there today?

From reports, it doesn't sound like too many.

I was just at Ari BTS and watched for at least 15 minutes as a steady stream of red shirts headed north up Phaholyothing. Probably in the tens of thousands. When I left then five minutes ago, they were still streaming past, although it had thinned out to mostly sedans and aircon pickups with their windows rolled up and red flags hanging out of them. Must have been the elite rear guard! All I can say is, it looks like they are putting everything they have in going up to Thaicom.

Cheering bystanders amounted to about 10% of the crowd watching.

[Redsunset]

Thanong has been wrong far more then right over the past 4 weeks then. Remember this is the guy that said the coalition partners would vote no confidence after the third day of the demonstrations. Instead, the house met, got a quorum even without the PTP MP's, and passed several pieces of legislation.

TH

Yeppers --- at this point he may need to start looking for a new career. Reporting and opinion/predicting do not seem to be his strong points. Perhaps he could consider fiction writing, he can string together sentences better than most and he can hold a plot point in his mind. Not too bad!

Interesting... few have been able to predict anything correctly recently. I find that many Thai politicians [especially] practice to deceive, making it very tough to get a straight answer. At least Thanong is bold enough to come out and actually TRY and make predictions based on what he might hear. You claim he has been wrong far more than right over the past four weeks... can you prove that? Just curious...

[elcent]

Any idea how many are out there today?

From reports, it doesn't sound like too many.

official 3000 plus 2500. I think it's over-estimated, maybe half is more likely, but this is the hard core. Others stay away at the moment and would return if the gov doesn't seize the momentum of the emergency decree.

[bubba]

Any idea how many are out there today?

From reports, it doesn't sound like too many.

official 3000 plus 2500. I think it's over-estimated, maybe half is more likely, but this is the hard core. Others stay away at the moment and would return if the gov doesn't seize the momentum of the emergency decree.

That is a vast underestimate. I can tell you first hand that there were far more 10,000 headed up Phaholyothin Road as I watched for about 15 minutes and they were still going when I left.

[elcent]

Cheering bystanders amounted to about 10% of the crowd watching.

... the same as those that cheer to cock fightings.

[mca]

It is not the Thai way to use force, Thai against Thai, so maybe that is the reason that force is not being used.

Thai history might disagree with you there peter.

Yes, true ... but I just don't see the benefit to Abhisit or the army for them to come out in force against the red shirts, particularly since they have been very peaceful.

Agreed. We can only hope that the " bad old days " are dead and buried.

[bubba]

webfact has just posted a reply to a topic that you have subscribed to titled "Bangkok Red-Shirt Rally - Live Friday".

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234 companies of troops, police set up checkpoints in Bangkok

BANGKOK: -- Col Sansern Kaewkamnerd, the spokesman of the Emergency Operations Command, said Friday that EOC has deployed 234 companies of troops and policemen to set up security checkpoints around Bangkok.

The checkpoints are a part of measures to control the protesters from moving around to cause turbulence in the city.

-- The Nation 2010-04-09

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Ooops....I'd say they were a bit late on that one!

You can more or less follow their progress real-time from the roads indicated in red at:

http://traffic.thai.net/

[BKjohn]

It is not the Thai way to use force, Thai against Thai, so maybe that is the reason that force is not being used.

Thai history might disagree with you there peter.

Yes, true ... but I just don't see the benefit to Abhisit or the army for them to come out in force against the red shirts, particularly since they have been very peaceful.

Agreed. We can only hope that the " bad old days " are dead and buried.

How can you call a group of people that holds a countries capital to ransom peaceful?? besides the odd grenades that are being thrown and the unlawful occupation of the parliament and other buildings

The government has to act NOW and put an end to this or risk all

Edited April 9, 2010 by BKjohn

[Ivanuvich]

"They will not leave Bangkok until they achieve victory"

This statement in the article is certainly prescient.

The response to legitimate political grievances of intransigence and the threat of a multitude of force-scenarios, is a losing proposition.

Once there is a realization that political grievances are solved politically, the better it will be for everyone...especially the Amataya.

None of you honestly believe force will put this genie back into the bottle do you?

To also suggest as this article is trying to do, that somehow the PM was taking actions independent of his military support and Suthep, is a bit of a reach.

Sooner or later this blind adherence to a nine-month timeframe needs to be seen as counter-productive to the Amataya.

An example of this is the huge turnout today at the downtown protest site. I understand this is in large part due to the blocking of The Peoples Channel.

This autocratic attempt to control the flow of information has backfired. Participants whose source of information was blocked not only have come out when they did not before, it has also clearly established in their mind that this Government is their enemy.

Coercive actions are backfiring , whereas avoidance of intransigence would be productive.

I mean this is ridiculous....they are going to go to the wall over the issue of buying just a few more months of time?

Nine months is illogical.........fifteen days is too soon...........but where there is a will, three months is reasonable.

Just do it and stop all this nonsense.

Edited April 9, 2010 by Ivanuvich

[landofthefree]

Any idea how many are out there today?

From reports, it doesn't sound like too many.

official 3000 plus 2500. I think it's over-estimated, maybe half is more likely, but this is the hard core. Others stay away at the moment and would return if the gov doesn't seize the momentum of the emergency decree.

I had to fight my way through them between the offices at Central world and Chit Lom BTS many thousands there at 10am Friday (today)

[elcent]

Any idea how many are out there today?

From reports, it doesn't sound like too many.

official 3000 plus 2500. I think it's over-estimated, maybe half is more likely, but this is the hard core. Others stay away at the moment and would return if the gov doesn't seize the momentum of the emergency decree.

That is a vast underestimate. I can tell you first hand that there were far more 10,000 headed up Phaholyothin Road as I watched for about 15 minutes and they were still going when I left.

[anotherpeter]

"They will not leave Bangkok until they achieve victory"

This statement in the article is certainly prescient.

The response to legitimate political grievances of intransigence and the threat of a multitude of force-scenarios, is a losing proposition.

Once there is a realization that political grievances are solved politically, the better it will be for everyone...especially the Amataya.

None of you honestly believe force will put this genie back into the bottle do you?

To also suggest as this article is trying to do, that somehow the PM was taking actions independent of his military support and Suthep, is a bit of a reach.

Sooner or later this blind adherence to a nine-month timeframe needs to be seen as counter-productive to the Amataya.

An example of this is the huge turnout today at the downtown protest site. I understand this is in large part due to the blocking of The Peoples Channel.

This autocratic attempt to control the flow of information has backfired. Participants whose source of information was blocked not only have come out when they did not before, it has also clearly established in their mind that this Government is their enemy.

Coercive actions are backfiring , whereas avoidance of intransigence would be productive.

I mean this is ridiculous....they are going to go to the wall over the issue of buying just a few more months of time?

Nine months is illogical.........fifteen days is too soon...........but where there is a will, three months is reasonable.

Just do it and stop all this nonsense.

Huge turnout? Maybe 10,000 ... if that?

Source of information? The propganda on the Peoples channel was not information.

Nine months is illogical. They should wait until the scheduled date in Dec 2011. Three months is not soon enough for Thaksin, so that won't be accepted by the reds either.

[BKjohn]

I think you are making one mistake here; If these were people with political grievances and an understanding thereof, I would agree, but the majority are nothing but uneducated, IQ challenged people who are only here because Mr. T is paying them.

Remove all those porn's, you end up with a group of hardcore would be Terrorists and their leaders who are all looking at overthrowing the government for financial gain once Mr. T returns.

Why are they so against the 9 months term - the answer is simple, it would cost Mr. T too much to keep up his supporters

[4223rhodes]

I think you are making one mistake here; If these were people with political grievances and an understanding thereof, I would agree, but the majority are nothing but uneducated, IQ challenged people who are only here because Mr. T is paying them.

Remove all those porn's, you end up with a group of hardcore would be Terrorists and their leaders who are all looking at overthrowing the government for financial gain once Mr. T returns.

Why are they so against the 9 months term - the answer is simple, it would cost Mr. T too much to keep up his supporters

It probably has more to do with the military command reshuffle and military budgets coming up than anything else. Also, wouldn't it be a bit disingenuous for them to be protesting for a true democracy to exist in 9 months? If you want something, chances are you want it now.

[Ivanuvich]

"They will not leave Bangkok until they achieve victory"

This statement in the article is certainly prescient.

The response to legitimate political grievances of intransigence and the threat of a multitude of force-scenarios, is a losing proposition.

Once there is a realization that political grievances are solved politically, the better it will be for everyone...especially the Amataya.

None of you honestly believe force will put this genie back into the bottle do you?

To also suggest as this article is trying to do, that somehow the PM was taking actions independent of his military support and Suthep, is a bit of a reach.

Sooner or later this blind adherence to a nine-month timeframe needs to be seen as counter-productive to the Amataya.

An example of this is the huge turnout today at the downtown protest site. I understand this is in large part due to the blocking of The Peoples Channel.

This autocratic attempt to control the flow of information has backfired. Participants whose source of information was blocked not only have come out when they did not before, it has also clearly established in their mind that this Government is their enemy.

Coercive actions are backfiring , whereas avoidance of intransigence would be productive.

I mean this is ridiculous....they are going to go to the wall over the issue of buying just a few more months of time?

Nine months is illogical.........fifteen days is too soon...........but where there is a will, three months is reasonable.

Just do it and stop all this nonsense.

Huge turnout? Maybe 10,000 ... if that?

Source of information? The propganda on the Peoples channel was not information.

Nine months is illogical. They should wait until the scheduled date in Dec 2011. Three months is not soon enough for Thaksin, so that won't be accepted by the reds either.

Calling the Peoples Channel information 'propaganda' is so ludicrous and beyond belief, when contrasted to the State Channels and ASTV.......This is not just a double standard...it is that...... multiplied many times.

Edited April 9, 2010 by Ivanuvich

[anotherpeter]

Any idea how many are out there today?

From reports, it doesn't sound like too many.

official 3000 plus 2500. I think it's over-estimated, maybe half is more likely, but this is the hard core. Others stay away at the moment and would return if the gov doesn't seize the momentum of the emergency decree.

That is a vast underestimate. I can tell you first hand that there were far more 10,000 headed up Phaholyothin Road as I watched for about 15 minutes and they were still going when I left.

And even if you put 5 people in each of those cars, that's still only 300. Spread them out with a car space between each car. Put them in 2 lanes of traffic. Travel speed at about 20 kmh. 15 minutes. let me do some calculations .... about 6250 people.

[anotherpeter]

Calling the Peoples Channel information 'propaganda' is so ludicrous and beyond belief, when contrasted to the State Channels and ASTV.......This is not just a double standard...it is that...... multiplied many times.

I didn't compare them to other channels.

Peoples Channel is clearly propaganda. They tell lies, they put doctored video/audio to incite violence. That's propaganda.

[BKjohn]

I think you are making one mistake here; If these were people with political grievances and an understanding thereof, I would agree, but the majority are nothing but uneducated, IQ challenged people who are only here because Mr. T is paying them.

Remove all those porn's, you end up with a group of hardcore would be Terrorists and their leaders who are all looking at overthrowing the government for financial gain once Mr. T returns.

Why are they so against the 9 months term - the answer is simple, it would cost Mr. T too much to keep up his supporters

It probably has more to do with the military command reshuffle and military budgets coming up than anything else. Also, wouldn't it be a bit disingenuous for them to be protesting for a true democracy to exist in 9 months? If you want something, chances are you want it now.

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The can never be a true democracy here as long as those people who are protesting now, are willing to sell their votes to the highest bidder. They are the ones that are the cause of it all because they do not understand what is going on or are only interested in how much cash they are going to get

The precurser for a "real" democracy requires understanding and responsibillity of the majority of the voters

[steveromagnino]

Any idea how many are out there today?

From reports, it doesn't sound like too many.

official 3000 plus 2500. I think it's over-estimated, maybe half is more likely, but this is the hard core. Others stay away at the moment and would return if the gov doesn't seize the momentum of the emergency decree.

That is a vast underestimate. I can tell you first hand that there were far more 10,000 headed up Phaholyothin Road as I watched for about 15 minutes and they were still going when I left.

They must have been driving incredibly fast; we've done a count before while stuck in traffic when they were driving onto Wireless as a motorcade at the Thai Belgium corner (?), at a speed of approx 50km an hour, 2 lanes wide, only red traffic, all other traffic blocked; in 20 min there were a total of a few thousand that went past based on quickly rough counting vehicle by vehicle.

It's extremely deceptive; those big trucks are carrying 20-30 people; the pickups up to 10; motorcycles 2 at a time - but you add it up....the numbers seem massive, until you actually count and you will see that it is a great way of appearing huge but actually not having that many people - big gaps between vehicles; each vehicle takes a lot of space.

I don't doubt there area 10,000+ people heading up that way in total. Just stating that you would not likely see more than that in 10 minutes.... it takes something like 30 minutes to see that many on a 2 or 3 lane road when they are moving at speed.

As for outside Central, I've been told by red shirters there were 1 million there, and the police were miscounting. I know that area well, it gets maximum around 200-300,000 for new year countdown which is shoulder to shoulder the entire road including the entire area in front of Central wrapping around the corner to almost Central Chitlom...not once did I see if with even 1/4 of that many people during the last week; in the mornings it was probably below 10,000. They can keep pushing up their numbers, but the reality is they have never come anywhere near their target of 1 million.

As for Ivanuvich's comment 'Nine months is illogical.........fifteen days is too soon...........but where there is a will, three months is reasonable.'

I totally agree on the 15 days; if the red shirts had showed up for day 3 of negotiation, I believe they could have fought and got 6 months, perhaps even 4 months; but....as we well know....the red shirts offered 2 months, then withdrew it, then withdrew completely. Regarding this negotiation, the only way that Thaksin can return is if PT are solely responsible for editing the constitution and therefore can grant amnesty to him by editing it themselves. This is the only way. If there is any joint discussion, he won't get it because the majority of the elected representatives representing the majority of the voters in the last election don't support that to happen. This is why PT withdrew from ammending the constitution. This is why even if they get 3 months, if there is any constitutional ammendment prior, then PT and the red shirts will continue to do what they are doing.

That's why election is the only hope, and Thaksin must pray he can convince by legal or illegal means to get enough votes to form probably what will now require an absolute majority - cheating will be ok (after all TRT/PPP are experts at that) - then quickly ammend the constitution and remove penalties for cheating plus grant himself amnesty and a pardon.

For all the talk of how this is a fight for democracy, the only sticking point right now is 1 man's need to ensure that there is a specific clause granting him immunity and a pardon for the crimes he has done - but of course - he is a prai billionaire....and this is not a double standard :-)

[anotherpeter]

I think you are making one mistake here; If these were people with political grievances and an understanding thereof, I would agree, but the majority are nothing but uneducated, IQ challenged people who are only here because Mr. T is paying them.

Remove all those porn's, you end up with a group of hardcore would be Terrorists and their leaders who are all looking at overthrowing the government for financial gain once Mr. T returns.

Why are they so against the 9 months term - the answer is simple, it would cost Mr. T too much to keep up his supporters

It probably has more to do with the military command reshuffle and military budgets coming up than anything else. Also, wouldn't it be a bit disingenuous for them to be protesting for a true democracy to exist in 9 months? If you want something, chances are you want it now.

It has heaps to do with the reshuffle.

Abhisit even said that. The reds haven't been so open.

Thaksin need elections now so that he can buy the result and control the reshuffle. Once he controls the army, he can walk back without a problem.

[tigermonkey]

"They will not leave Bangkok until they achieve victory"

This statement in the article is certainly prescient.

The response to legitimate political grievances of intransigence and the threat of a multitude of force-scenarios, is a losing proposition.

Once there is a realization that political grievances are solved politically, the better it will be for everyone...especially the Amataya.

None of you honestly believe force will put this genie back into the bottle do you?

To also suggest as this article is trying to do, that somehow the PM was taking actions independent of his military support and Suthep, is a bit of a reach.

Sooner or later this blind adherence to a nine-month timeframe needs to be seen as counter-productive to the Amataya.

An example of this is the huge turnout today at the downtown protest site. I understand this is in large part due to the blocking of The Peoples Channel.

This autocratic attempt to control the flow of information has backfired. Participants whose source of information was blocked not only have come out when they did not before, it has also clearly established in their mind that this Government is their enemy.

Coercive actions are backfiring , whereas avoidance of intransigence would be productive.

I mean this is ridiculous....they are going to go to the wall over the issue of buying just a few more months of time?

Nine months is illogical.........fifteen days is too soon...........but where there is a will, three months is reasonable.

Just do it and stop all this nonsense.

You are ignoring practical facts here ! In October, President Anupong will crown his successor. This transition must occur before the possible election of a populist government. The best scenario for the military is that the transition will occur in a time of complete peace.

It is only a formality that the government must sign off on this transition -- but it is best that it appeasr toi be blesssed by the 'representatives of the people '

[Ivanuvich]

Trying to put numbers to this protest is a fools game.

The numbers actually protesting are only representative of huge numbers nationwide.

Abhisit and friends are avoiding elections for good reasons.

The minority against these protests keep hoping that during the fluctuations of attendance, that the lower levels represent their totality in the country.

The number of protesters in bangkok are just that...the number that are in Bangkok.......count them nation-wide and you will see why elections are to be avoided by some people.

Forget the numbers, even huge ones......they are representative of a nation-wide Movement.

That is why applying force on those in Bangkok is such a losing proposition....never mind cutting off their TV source of info.

That may feel good to the Amataya, but it just breeds more converts.

Edited April 9, 2010 by Ivanuvich

[Jerrytheyoung]

In any case, independantly of anybody opinion, this is a mad day where the unreasonable is taking over.

I wish that it will not end in a butchery.

The seizure of the TV has been a provocation. The announcement of leader arrest decisions put them the "back to the wall".

Who can say now what will be tomorrow?

Edited April 9, 2010 by Jerrytheyoung

[canuckamuck]

Any idea how many are out there today?

From reports, it doesn't sound like too many.

official 3000 plus 2500. I think it's over-estimated, maybe half is more likely, but this is the hard core. Others stay away at the moment and would return if the gov doesn't seize the momentum of the emergency decree.

That is a vast underestimate. I can tell you first hand that there were far more 10,000 headed up Phaholyothin Road as I watched for about 15 minutes and they were still going when I left.

They forgot add a picture of 2 pickup trucks, you forgot this is Thailand