What If The Red Shirts Win?

[simpathy]

the world money markets have spoken. the reds are not a force, just garderners making loud noise!

good fodder for forums, so to speak!

[Meridian007]

It isn't as if Abhisit is some monster of a dictator, if you look at him objectively through international eyes. He is competent, (if ineffectual), and can serve out the amount of time it takes to reform the constitution and the judicial system.

[/quote

Nice guy, good education, very civil....but held hostage to a system which is just a veneer over a military controlled government. He may even want to make constitutional changes and fix the judicial system, but if he tries in any meaningful way the big hammer will come down on him...the one held by the folks who really run Thailand. It's the guys behind Abhisit that the Reds are after not him personally...even if they chant "Abhisit out" over and over...he is just the mouthpiece..the front man...not the real issue.

As to the alternatives.. ....I hear Ecuador is a nice enough place to live...and cheap

What you say is true, but if there is one thing that the protests may achieve, it is that a sense of transparency is needed. If it is given, then it will become more difficult for all of the "invisible hands" to crush certain changes. I think that the military, (and other hands), will be difficult thorns to remove, which is why this won't be magically fixed by an election. There isn't anyone who can lead the country in the way it should be for the good of Thailand, so the best out of the rest must be chosen.

[vicco]

This thread started of reasonably well. A request for analysis was made. By the end of page one the lunatic fringe has already hijacked it and we are going to have page after page of Thaksin rants and ravings. You could start a thread about apple pie and ice cream and the obsessive Thaksin scaremongers would find a way to bring him into it.

My analysis of what will happen if the Reds win is.....I don't know, but probably nothing very much. I will deal with it if and when it happens...in the meantime if you are so worried about it you should leave quick before the Thai version of the holocaust breaks out... Try watching "The King and I"...preferably the old Yul 1950ies version....get a new perspective on Thailand...

[old wanderer]

... She fired him the next day because he supported the Red shirts...

OW, I do not want to pick a fight here, but that action by your 'yellow-shirt' wife is a clear example of why many people (Thai and farang) are sympathetic to the Red shirt movement.

If I had a driver, I would not remove his employment (and probably his source of income to support his family etc), simply because of his political leanings.

Simon

Simon,

I agree with you. BUT I like my peace at home, and will not fight somebodies else s battles. Ultimately I do have the final say in my family, but with items like this, it is simply "I don't have a dog in this fight". As far as his family goes, he had dumped his wife of 20 years last year, for a new Mia Noi...but TIT. (This may have colored some of my wife's emotion, as she knew his wife as well). So maybe it was an excuse she was looking for.

[humfurry]

Turns on the box and says, I want to know if army kill all the red shirts yet.

Well at least I know my wife is not the only one to feel that way.

A country (if it wishes to appear to be a country with a constitution and laws) simply cannot let a very small portion of the population dictate who can be in power and when you must hold elections. (Yes, I know some will point out the PAD, BUT it was the court, not the protest that brought down the regimes).

I can see nothing that is so urgent or life threatening that an election must be held before the scheduled time for it.

My wife says bring in the tanks and bull dozers, shove all the stages, bikes, taxis and trucks into the klong. Have elections next year and then what happens som nah nah, but at least it is a constitutional election.

I like the way your wife thinks... Oh and I enjoyed the read on your first post as well.

Cheers, Hummy

[barrybankruad]

If the hard core Maoist/class warfare/smash the "elites" faction prevails in the chaos after a red shirt win, then they may kick out all the foreigners, not because of our speech, but because we are seen as elites with wealth that they deserve to steal. Our businesses, our real estate owned through dodgy legal tricks, our legally owned condos, our cars, our boats, and last but not least our bank accounts. Is this outcome probable if the reds prevail? Who knows? But it is certainly possible. Just look at history. I still remain amazed by some of the right wing type people who think supporting a group that has an intellectual foundation peopled by hard core Maoists is a cool thing to do.

Everyone here seems to be forgetting that for 6 years (2 terms) Thaksin and the 'reds' ran the country. He was illegally deposed, and the subsequent 'red' parliaments were disbanded by dubious legal process.

Did the wheels fall off the wagon in the years that the 'reds' were in power? Of course they didn't, they got rid of him because he was threatening the corrupt, comfortable life that the powers that be have, often at the expense of the 'reds'.

[Jingthing]

You are making two assumptions there --

-- that the Thaksin then is the Thaksin now, he has been through a lot. Also it is well known he was a totalitarian anti-democratic leader working on becoming a total dictator.

-- that Thaksin will be in control in the chaos following a red shirt win. He has been out of the country a long time. Yes, his money has been used and the reds wouldn't be where they are without it. However, the old Thaksin did not use the rhetoric of class warfare. It wasn't led by intellectual Maoists. This element is an x factor now.

Truly, nobody know what would happen if the reds talk power. However, the Maoist stuff about the red shirts is real. If you are comfortable with that, so be it. I think it is a danger to Thailand and everything good about Thailand.

[simpathy]

can you be a bit more clear.

are you saying taksin was ousted because he was a threat to the corrupt? he was an honest man among thieves

[Ulysses G.]

Jingthing you are totally paranoid, but I enjoy most of your non-political posts anyway.

[Tod Daniels]

What If The Red Shirts Win?, Let us analize what the possible outcome might be

This was the funniest post title I've read in a while. Perhaps by some stretch of the imagination did you mean;

"Let us analyze, blah, blah, blah..."

Last time I checked, which I just did; the term analize carries the following definition from Urban Dictionary;

What anal people do when they analyze something. Analysis with an anal slant. The anal person's thought process.

Great post keep up the good work. ..

[neverdie]

I am not anti-red or even Thaksin, but I am very afraid that he has a big bone to pick with all the farangs who have spoken out against him and will throw us all out of the country if he returns to power and I don't want to go back to the land of the big PX.

Relax UG, that won't happen.

[simpathy]

Jingthing you are totally paranoid, but I enjoy most of your non-political posts anyway.

he doesnt know it,but he more fun than a barrel of water buffalows!

[vicco]

If the hard core Maoist/class warfare/smash the "elites" faction prevails in the chaos after a red shirt win, then they may kick out all the foreigners, not because of our speech, but because we are seen as elites with wealth that they deserve to steal. Our businesses, our real estate owned through dodgy legal tricks, our legally owned condos, our cars, our boats, and last but not least our bank accounts. Is this outcome probable if the reds prevail? Who knows? But it is certainly possible. Just look at history. I still remain amazed by some of the right wing type people who think supporting a group that has an intellectual foundation peopled by hard core Maoists is a cool thing to do.

Everyone here seems to be forgetting that for 6 years (2 terms) Thaksin and the 'reds' ran the country. He was illegally deposed, and the subsequent 'red' parliaments were disbanded by dubious legal process.

Did the wheels fall off the wagon in the years that the 'reds' were in power? Of course they didn't, they got rid of him because he was threatening the corrupt, comfortable life that the powers that be have, often at the expense of the 'reds'.

Not only that but after the long list of accusations and charges against him, all the court was able to find him guilty of was "conflict of interest" over the land deal that his wife did. All of the money he made before entering public life was never in question because it was made through perfectly legitimate business enterprise. Most if not all of the money he made after entering public office was from the sale of his telecoms company to foreign interests, which upset many people who viewed it as selling off a valuable national asset, but it was a perfectly legal transaction. He had in fact ceded off the company to his family, but the court ruled that it was really his! OK...but perfectly legal never the less. All the flap about the amount of money he made in office was answered quite simply.....the value of the company soared by about 120%+, as did most other companies. The biggest gain was in the Thai blue chip cement company...which gained in value far more than Thaksins company....were they all crooks too?

Conflict of interest is a relative minor offense....that's why the sentence was only 2 years. ...hardly big time criminal stuff....yet we get this constant harping about his

"criminal" behavior. There have been similar (remarkably similar) accusations and charges against some western leaders including two Canadian Prime Ministers, A chancellor of Germany, PM of Italy..and some others that don't immediately to mind. Clearly Thaksin did some deals which were not in line with "best practices" but above all else he has a

businessman...driven, greedy and ambitious. Hardly a rare quality in business or politics anywhere. What he did was not right but he was charged and convicted in a very hostile enviroment and many would argue that his trial was far more about politics than legal process. Be that as it may, the conviction does not exactly place him in the "monster" category. The media generally referred to the charges and subsequent conviction as "corruption", but that is just a catch-all term for a wide variety of things.

People who just don't like him read all kinds of stuff into this word corruption. Once a political figure has been charged and convicted of anything (even minor) that can fit into the corruption category he is always tainted for life...and it is dragged up at every opportunity by those who oppose him.

Now the establishment leaders who brought down Thaksin accusing someone else of corruption is a sick joke......A free and objective examination of their dealings would likely land them all in jail for much more than 2 years.

[Gary A]

I'm actually surprised that some of you people trust the courts. It's ALL about politics. When Thaksin owned the courts, he bought the judges and was able to fiddle his finances and get away with it. After some of the mighty powers were pushed away from the feed trough, they had a vendetta against Thaksin and were able to oust him with the help of the yellow shirts. Now the other side owns the courts and I think their judgments against Thaksin make that quite obvious.

Newin and friends are the reason Abhisit was able to be elected prime minister. Newin was the Buriram godfather and he and his his MP's have always gone to the high bidder. I wonder how much it cost the democrats to buy Newin's support?

[gigiman]

In reference to the post here by OLD WANDERER ,, I need to say you are sadly misinformed and really are quite ignorant when it comes to understanding what the RED shirt movement is about and the current situation in Thailand.

What you , your wife, the Yellows and the government fail to understand and in the case of the government , hate to admit to is the fact that this current protest movement represents the " THE POLITICAL CONSCIOUSNESS OF A NEW GENERATION "

You say Taksin " brainwashed " the poor . Really, well this is just your way of explaining away and dismissing the desires of about 78 percent of the Thai people.

What you , the yellows and the government fail to understand , is , like it or not , Taksin woke up the masses who represent the majority and that majority now want a say in what happens to their future. They have finally realized that with their VOTE , they have influence , and after all isn't that what democracy is supposed to be about.

Whatever Taksin's methods , he did what he did ,, it's water under the bridge ,, it's done and you can't go back in time and undo it.

But I know what you and the Yellows are thinking about now,,, that the Reds or as your wife prefers to call them " buffalos " are too ignorant and misinformed to vote, right ???

Ok ,, so who gets to vote for them ,,, the Bangkok elites ,,, your wife ??

Do you know how arrogant that is and how much of an insult it is to those who have a right to vote for who they want . It's an insult to democracy and to the Thai people.

The current establishment ,, the elites, the Yellows,, people like you and your wife are deeply affraid of political change ,, and the power and economic benefits going to all the people instead of a privliaged few.

And lets not forget your other excuse to explain away social and political change ,, namely that anyone who demands it must be against the King and therefore not worthy of being listened too.

You can keep trying to explain it away all you want ,, but like it or not,, tell your wife this:

" THE BUFFALOS ARE AWAKE , AND THEY ARE ON THE CHARGE "

So quick ,, go and hide because god forbid ,,, things might become fair and equal before you know it .

Gigiman

[Jingthing]

I am shocked that anyone actually believes a red power government will mean that things will magically become "fair and equal" in Thailand.

[wayne78]

I am not anti-red or even Thaksin, but I am very afraid that he has a big bone to pick with all the farangs who have spoken out against him and will throw us all out of the country if he returns to power and I don't want to go back to the land of the big PX.

no, only some farangs, maybe the majority (but not all) speaking against him.

they are almost all anonymous, from the cyberspace, some of them live permanently abroad.

whoever will at power within the near time, would have to be lenient to the whole society, including farangs - firstly they would have to get their vote in the general election and than not to go against the election manifesto.

the new government would have to establish tourist trust in thailand and same goes for the international community, so most probably they would welcome more foreigners to stay

What the future holds for Thailand is unclear however there are some things that we can I think accept as most probable. One is that in the event of a new election, imo the reds will win hands down and the ruling elete in Thailand know this of course and really can not stop what will amount to a fundamentle change within Thai society and perhaps even government and the current system, such as it is.

Many things are unspoken in Thailand and one issue which is unspoken is the one issue of perhaps greatest importence in all of this.

imo Thailand is on the abyss. It could go one of a number of ways. There are a number of options one of which is a civil war, the worst case scenario which would be a tragedy for not only Thais, but for the nation as a whole.

The best case would be for an election with an understanding and accomodation of both sides however i think this is most unlikely as the powers that be, on both sides, seem unwilling at this stage at least to compromise.

Whatever happens, my hope is that Thailand can come out of this current situation the better however i don't like he chances of that happening.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

"I agree with you. BUT I like my peace at home, and will not fight somebodies else s battles. Ultimately I do have the final say in my family, but with items like this, it is simply "I don't have a dog in this fight"."

In my family I make all of the big decisions and my wife makes all the small decisions. Whether it is a big or small decision is a small decision.

[almavro]

Sorry, but this has nothing to do with "political consciousness" and everything to do with reds and yellows being played as pawns -- one, by the powers that be; the other, by Mr T. I thought '76 was The Awakening, too, and we were probably closer, then, than we are now... but to no avail.

There's lots more to play out, here. And nothing is going to be resolved quickly, coup or not; government change or not. Best policy is to keep your head down and go about your business. This too, shall pass.

[gigiman]

In reference to :

I am shocked that anyone actually believes a red power government will mean that things will magically become "fair and equal" in Thailand.

I did not mean to imply that " fair and equal " would happen overnight. Of course change is slow especially in Thailand.

Do I take it that your answer is to stay with the status quo ??

Whats your point ??? Do you feel if the Reds get in power things won't become fair and equal ?? But if thats what the majority of the people want and vote for (perhaps 78 percent of them based on the last election ) then give it to them.

GIVE THE PEOPLE WHAT THEY WANT !!! Don't you get it ?

Thats what this is about . Its about the majority ,, not misguided opinions of a select few who like things the way they are and say Thailand is not ready for true democracy.

If they keep this mentality ,, they will have a class struggle revolution between the haves and have nots on their hands before they know it

Wake up !!!

Gigiman

[Jingthing]

Stop painting everyone who sees the reds for what they actually are, which has NOTHING to do with a real pro democracy movement (rather the poor are being cynically used as pawns) as pro yellow, pro status quo. If you want to know what a "yellow" thinks, talk to a yellow. There are almost no yellow foreigners posting here. This isn't about red vs. yellow, but the real threat of the reds (who have shown they aren't even afraid to use terrorist tactics) to the stability and peace of Thailand.

[acdc]

If the Reds win I guess there will be elections.

Is that so bad?

[IMA_FARANG]

Getting to the question you asked...What will happen if the Reds win...my opinion is probably not much.

I agree there is a serious economic/political devide between classes in Thailand, which mostly pits the poorer farmer/agrarian class in Issan against the more urban class in Bangkok. If I really believed that the Reds winning would make changes in that situation, I would probably be pro Reds. But I don't believe that, I believe that whatever happens it will be only exchanging one wealthy group in power for another wealthy group that wants that power. So I am forced to say when asked what will change is...not very much.

I've had a personal experience in my Thai family on how poor Thais are controlled. Some years ago when my Thai G/F's daughter took her school exams (she had been quite a good student in school) my Thai G/F was visted by one of the teachers from the daughters school. She made it clear to my Thai G/F that if she could come up with XXXXXXX Baht (the number of Xs doesn't indicate the numer of figures, so don't ask) then her daughter could "do well" in the exams. That would mean the possibility of university for the daughter. My G/F's Thai family isn't rich, and she couldn't meet the figure suggested. Therefore, no university for the daughter. Now that was some years ago, and I've been told by Thais that "that kind of thing" doesn't happen anymore. I don't believe it.

All I see in the struggle between the government and the Reds so far is a struggle between two groups for dominance over the economic/political/and social class in Thailand. I know many of the rank and file Reds truely believe they are working for Democracy and to help their fellow poor and farmers. I'm afraid if they do win, they will be sorely disapointed.

But I hope I'm wrong...and some real change will come out of this political struggle for the average Thai. If I am wrong, and some real change does come, I'll be happy.

I just don't think I will be wrong. Yes, change will come sometime to Thailand. The middle class Pandora's box has been opened some years ago, and you can't put all the demons back into the box.

As for the love of Democracy, that some people seem to be so enthusiastic for on this forum, you need only to look at the U.S. for a lesson on how Democracy can be manipulated. Elections in the U.S. now are such a long and expensive process that no politician can have a hope of winning unless they have a source of money. For that reason now in the U.S. the only viable candidates are those who are supported by a party organization. And both parties, Republican and Democratic, are controlled by those who have access to and can disburse large sums of money.

Most Americans don't realise that it is totally legal to write in a name on a Federal ballot, whether that person has been nominated by any party or not...just as long as that person is a U.S. citizen who is not a convict or in prison. Most Americans seem to think they have to vote for one of he two main parties. The political system wants all Americans to believe that, because the two parties can then control the candidates selected.

Democracy, in Thailand, would be he same thing...only more blantent.

Edited April 12, 2010 by IMA_FARANG

[tb86]

if the reds win.. i would say not much will change, poor will stay poor and uneducated untill they die, the rich will stay rich. If taksin does somehow come back he will help himself to the poors money as usual, toss em a few scraps here and there. Buisness will go back to its semi normal state of affairs, the same old people will be incharge of things, much as they used to. The yellow shirts will come out squaking again bla bla bla, maybe another change in a year or so.... some things never change. I honestly dont care whos in charge at this point in time, as we have seen over the last few years it dosent really matter which dummy is in charge....

[Jingthing]

I agree with your thesis there. Countries wanting an authentic democracy are best not copying the current US model. Most of the politicos are owned by money interests, not the people, in both parties. Here is the rub. For a real democracy to work well, you need an educated and actively participating public. That doesn't mean rioting. Most people if they have their chicken in the pot, they tune it all out and let the wolves do what they do best.

[elcent]

the red leaders can only win a weekly visit of relatives in their prisons. Thaksin will become the room leader.

oh,not to forget:

One prison compound will be painted yellow, while the other will be red. It will serve as a monument of warnings not to trespass fundamental basic human rights.

Edited April 12, 2010 by elcent

[elcent]

the red leaders can only win a weekly visit of relatives in their prisons. Thaksin will become the room leader.

oh,not to forget:

One prison compound will be painted yellow, while the other will be red. It will serve as a monument of warnings not to trespass fundamental basic human rights.

why is everybody falling silent after a truthful comment like this.

But hey, it's the solution, isn't it?

[Penefattore]

3. Often times I have seen her loan money to people in villages around her family home. When we returned to visit with her family she had washed the yellow shirts we had worn at the rally a few nights before and hung then to dry. 2 people that both owed her money stopped by, I think to ask for more time, but when they saw the yellow shirts, they starting expressing some very negative words about the PAD. Normally she is a generous person and would have told them OK 2 more years, you work your land, give my 25% and save to pay me back. Well this time she told them "NO....Go ask Thakin to help you", took the land and kicked them off. I tried to talk to her a bit about this, but I have learned I do not get into fights over things that do not directly effect me. He mind was made up.."If these 2 buffalo brains do not love my King, then they should not have land in his Kingdom." Normally she is generous. A few years ago everybody in the village was in trouble about money, so she bought all the silk in the village to help them out. (We still have boxes of material sitting around).

So your wife charges 25% yearly interest to poor peasants (that's just 1800 basis points above average lending rate after all ) and then sends the proceeds to the PAD "to help her King" who btw has an extimated wealth of 36 billion $.

What can I say ... I'm speechless

[vicco]

3. Often times I have seen her loan money to people in villages around her family home. When we returned to visit with her family she had washed the yellow shirts we had worn at the rally a few nights before and hung then to dry. 2 people that both owed her money stopped by, I think to ask for more time, but when they saw the yellow shirts, they starting expressing some very negative words about the PAD. Normally she is a generous person and would have told them OK 2 more years, you work your land, give my 25% and save to pay me back. Well this time she told them "NO....Go ask Thakin to help you", took the land and kicked them off. I tried to talk to her a bit about this, but I have learned I do not get into fights over things that do not directly effect me. He mind was made up.."If these 2 buffalo brains do not love my King, then they should not have land in his Kingdom." Normally she is generous. A few years ago everybody in the village was in trouble about money, so she bought all the silk in the village to help them out. (We still have boxes of material sitting around).

So your wife charges 25% yearly interest to poor peasants (that's just 1800 basis points above average lending rate after all ) and then sends the proceeds to the PAD "to help her King" who btw has an extimated wealth of 36 billion $.

What can I say ... I'm speechless

This stuff sounds very much like what used to happen in England.......11th Century England. No wonder the streets are full of people with red shirts (and a few M16's)

[hammered]

Not much will change imho. Or at least not much for us. If you are involved in business and politcs and were on the wrong side.....