Will The Army Act?

[losworld]

I am beginning to think the Thai army is sitting back and waiting for the colored shirt groups to confront each other in a violent manner. The Army can then step in and say they are preserving peace with no favoritism toward one group or the other. They can then arrest individuals from both sides.

It's really a cop out and a show of a lack of order in Thailand but it may be a more politically viable solution for the Army and the government.

If the Army does not take action in the next few days then you can almost bet there will be a confrontation between the various groups next week and this scenario may unfold.

The next question is will this result in a temporary coup?

I think Ab has to force the Army to act and if not there must be a way for him to completely dismantle and reassemble the Army so it serves the Government in power. In many ways this could lead to a real shake up in the military ranks which is likely long overdue. Thoughts?

[473geo]

My first thought when I read your title was that it would be Thai against Thai if the army were to react........

Nothing to be gained at all by allowing the various factions to fight it out, as the army and government would be seen to be sitting on the sidelines......and, any subsequent injuries/deaths/damage to property would be laid in all its entirity at their door.

[retdson]

Interesting take on things. I'm not sure how they would get yet another genie back in the bottle afterwards though. What I don't understand is how it all was allowed to escalate to where it is today. In fact, the police alone could have thrown a barbed wire cordon around any of the protests - yellow or red - and put a stop to them in a couple of days if they'd had the will to do it. But I think the army and police are terrified of sparking a split in their own ranks if they take decisive action - so they sit on the side and hope the politicians can sort it out. I'm getting more pessimistic by the day that this whole thing is going to slide utterly out of control.

[losworld]

Interesting take on things. I'm not sure how they would get yet another genie back in the bottle afterwards though. What I don't understand is how it all was allowed to escalate to where it is today. In fact, the police alone could have thrown a barbed wire cordon around any of the protests - yellow or red - and put a stop to them in a couple of days if they'd had the will to do it. But I think the army and police are terrified of sparking a split in their own ranks if they take decisive action - so they sit on the side and hope the politicians can sort it out. I'm getting more pessimistic by the day that this whole thing is going to slide utterly out of control.

I think what is happening is the police have never really been supportive of the Dem gov't and are quietly supporting Thak and the redshirts through inaction. Don't forget that Thak was once a policeman and I think he had the machine pretty greased when he was in charge. The Army I believe has put itself in a difficult situation. I believe they are still angered over the "bomb finding machine" and "air balloon" scandals that really made them lose face and look silly. I think they believe Ab stepped over the line criticizing these formerly "untouchable" types of programs designed to pad their pockets. So the Army is punishing Ab and the Dems through their inaction. No one seems to know which way to go. The easy way out for the Army would be to allow the protesters to clash among themselves and they can break it up like a good referee proving their worth and demonstrating to be apolitical. The whole problem with this is the Army is a tool of the state designed to protect the state in extraordinary circumstances and to act at the call of the Government. If you cannot control your machinery of government you cannot control your state. Not Abs fault but the problem lies in the Army itself. Best to reorganize the Army at first chance. You cannot have an Army that acts independently and on its own authority. In essence then you have military rule. Perhaps the true lesson in all of this will be that regardless of actions by protesters to create a more democratic government (not that this is happening at present to any significant extent) does it really matter if the Army is really in control in the end?

Frightening thing is the Army may very well be negotiating with both the Reds and the Dems. As per what is in it for them if they stop the uprising? What is in it for them if they create a military coup due to what they will call mitigating circumstance then stating that they will demand elections in say three months which will give them even more time to parlay a nice deal for themselves and at the same time appearing to be the protectorate of the people and the Democratic process. The big winner in the end could very well be the Army and not the Democratic process.

Sad thing is that I really believe Ab is a reformer. He has taken on various elements of corruption in Thailand and this may be his undoing. The wheels of change move slowly in Thailand but I think if Ab is given a chance he can make positive change. If anyone thinks that the status quo can or will be changed overnight by a series of demonstrations and violence, with our without Thak's guidance, they are sadly mistaken. It will take a lot of time, effort and the right combination of courageous and dedicated leaders to do this.

Edited April 24, 2010 by losworld

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