PM Abhisit Announces Next Election Will Be Held On Nov 14

[gregb]

not really...because as other posters have written, it moves the election date past the reshuffling of the military hierarchy, allowing Anupong's successor to come in, and it ensures that Thaksin's chance for regaining power becomes more limited, even should the Reds win the election...Abhisit may not last, but he also ensures that the Reds are left without their figurehead.

So really, what that means is that if Thaksin's party wins, the army will stage another coup and prevent them from taking office. What's the purpose of an election then? That's no Democracy, that's Dictatorship, I'm sorry.

No, what it means is that the military will be there to serve as a subtle check on the power of the government, as it always has been in the past. The military has always served as an integral part of the balance of power arrangement in Thailand, and the current government aims to make sure Thaksin's entourage can not eviscerate the power of this branch the way he did all the independent commissions set up by the 1997 constitution.

A quasi independent military is preventing dictatorship, not causing it. Balance of power is a critical element in any government. This is a good thing. The fact that the pertinent branches of government in Thailand are different than those of the West does not mean it is any less a democracy.

Maybe a few decades in the future when the Thai electorate has grown up it will be possible to replace the military with a different authority. But for now this is critical.

[clockworkorange]

Six months gives Abhisit time to ensure his mate Prayuth takes over as army commander, and also hold the budget, not that he's corrupt of course.

Six month would also give Abhsit a last chance to impress the Thai electorate. Having squandered the time he and successive Dem governments before him have already had to impress the people, he has an uphill task there.

Since anything is better than more violence, the reds may well take it, in exchange for some conditions of their own ...

[clockworkorange]

Yeah, the red leaders blew it. They shouldn't have walked away from the original negotiations. Now they are implicated in numerous terrorist acts and their movement has been seriously discredited. I still don't know if they will say yes though, they may have gone too far over the line to do so. Plus the Thaksin factor; I can't imagine he is going to like this deal.

I wouldn't speak too soon on that one. The reds are a force to be reckoned with, and when peace is restored, it will be in exchange for amnesty as well as compromise. There will never be peace if Abhisit blows any chance he is given by launching a witch hunt against the red leadership, and he would be a fool to try to do so. Whatever we might read in the media, you can bet that there is a lot more going on behind the scenes.

Suchinda is still playing a lot of golf, in spite of what he did and all the calls for his scalp at the time.

[ozzieman05]

over twice more than 3 months, as proposed by the protesters, but a little shorter, than abhisit declaration of 9 months.

his proposals serve at the same time, as his election manifesto - trying to catch up, what was neglected for the last 4 years

Now you will see the trouble makers come out of the woodwork

You though is would all be over but the cleaning up

Do not count on it

This is now what Taskin wants so the pressure will stay

If the red shirts really want what they say they want, the streets will be empty by weeks end

Sorry there s a hidden agenda

The protest will carry on

[patjem]

a little more than 3 months, as proposed by the protesters

What solutions were the protestors offering for all Thais, or any Thais for that matter?

The protesters are not campaigning they only want ELECTIONS.

Well, that's what they claim, but clearly they have other agendas too. Government is giving them what they say they want so should be a suitable proposal.

[ozzieman05]

Reply to deadsnoopy.

Thailand has had democracy for many years, the basis being 'one man one vote'. Just because some people choose to sell their right to democracy to the highest bidder is not the fault of democracy. It is the fault of the seller of their right of a democratic vote.

Cheers, Rick

Under which fundamental of democracy was the 2006 coup executed?

I never said that a military Coup was democratic did I? This Government was democratically elected under the rules of Thai law. Do you think that the red shirt confiscating red protesters ID cards and refusing to allow them to leave is democratic. Using women and children as a human shield behind gasoline filled tyres which would be set ablaze in case of forced eviction is democratic. Out and out terrorism in my book, but then again we are all different.

Cheers, Rick

You miss the point my friend

There is democratic the way we do in the west

and democratic the new way written in the Red Shirts Rule book

"RULES For MOB RULE"

[koosdeboer]

Thaksin is getting democratic:

Former Prime Minister of Thailand Thaksin Shinawatra Hires International Law Firm Amsterdam & Peroff

LONDON, May 3 /PRNewswire/ -- Today Amsterdam & Peroff announce that they have been appointed counsel to the former Prime Minister of Thailand Thaksin Shinawatra, to assist in the current contentious struggle for the restoration of democracy and rule of law in the Southeast Asian nation.

"We are pleased to be retained by Prime Minister Shinawatra to work on this urgent matter, and we acknowledge the challenging complexity and sensitivity of the political crisis unraveling Thai society," said Robert Amsterdam, founding partner of Amsterdam & Peroff. "It is our intention to explore every legal avenue to assist this pro-democracy movement, and urge the international community not to tolerate the government's violent crackdown on peaceful protestors."

Thaksin, who served as Thailand's Prime Minister from 2001 to 2006 before being unlawfully forced from office by a military coup, has been living in self-exile for the past two years despite repeated victories in democratic elections. Protestors affiliated with the National United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD, or "Red Shirts"), suffered 27 casualties in violent confrontations with police and military in the month of April.

Amsterdam & Peroff, founded in 1980 by partners Robert Amsterdam and Dean Peroff, is an international law firm specializing in complex multi-jurisdictional litigation, commercial arbitration, and political advocacy in challenging emerging markets. The firm maintains offices in London, Washington, DC and Toronto. More information is available at www.amsterdamandperoff.com and www.robertamsterdam.com.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fo...f-92662189.html

[ozzieman05]

It seems to me that Abhisit has the Red Shirts over a barrel. The international community including nearly every western nation, most Asian nations, NGOs, and the world press has been clamoring for negotiation and a peaceful settlement to this crisis. These calls have been echoed domestically by the business community and many other groups throughout Thailand.

Abhisit has quite publicly offered a compromise that the world will see as reasonable and fair. If the redshirts reject this last attempt at peace they will face world condemnation.

Your posting makes alot of sense

But you have not taken 1 thing into account

At what point so far in the Red shirt protest have they done things that make sense

[moetownblues]

Sounds like the reds and the people have finally won. Well done.

[ozzieman05]

Basically what Abhisit is saying is that there will be Elections on the 14th Nov 2010 if pigs can fly by that time.

Lets hope the Reds except his offer but I doubt it.

If I were them I would except the 6 month part but without the IF conditions.

I did say at the beginning of this post

wait long enough and the trouble makers ewill come out of the woodwork

Taskins Henchmen do not want a stable Thailand

I you doubt it just read the above posting

[GRIFF33]

Thai PM says ready to hold November elections under roadmap

BANGKOK (AFP) -- Thailand's prime minister said Monday he was ready to hold elections on November 14 to end a tense standoff with opposition protesters, subject to certain conditions under his reconciliation roadmap.

"If all five goals are achieved ... the election can be held on November 14," Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said in a nationally televised address.

<img src=http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/pics/afplogo.jpg target="_blank">

-- ©Copyright AFP 2010-05-03

Published with written approval from AFP.

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[ozzieman05]

Abhisit and the government have made a very clever move. As pointed out by other posters, there isn't much new to this compromise from previous offers, but including an intention to address the inequalities at least creates the appearance of compromise and reconciliation. If the redshirts refuse this compromise outright, they risk global condemnation. The government has the opportunity to look like the peacemakers.

IMHO, the redshirts need to accept the compromise, or offer a reasonable alternative, while still making it clear that they are dubious about the government's sincerity. If the government fails to honor the intent and spirit of the agreement, there will undoubtedly be opportunities to ramp the protest movement back up. In the mean time, the country will have a chance to return to some normality, and hopefully the inflammatory rhetoric from both sides will cool down.

Somehow, the Thai people need to develop faith in the electoral process to effect change and resolve issues. This will be tough to accomplish in a nation that has had only one PM serve his entire term, and then he was deposed in a coup.

The worse case scenario for the redshirts, and the Thai people in general, would be that the government uses the next 6 months to suppress and dismantle the opposition, and/or refuses to hold the Nov 14 elections for any reason, valid or not. If the government uses their position to suppress the opposition, and/or refuses to conduct the elections, any future credibility is lost and sympathy will swing back to the redshirts.

I agree that whatever happens in November, there will undoubtedly be groups that don't like the outcome and want to take to the streets again. However, it seems to me that the first priority right now is to get both sides to stand down and remove the guns from each others heads (figuratively, not literally) so the rest of the Thai people can get life back to something that passes for normal and quit being victimized by the conflict.

The government's tendency to censor and suppress any perceived opposition makes me doubt their sincerity, but if they are never given a chance to prove themselves, then the opposition are the bad guys.

It seems like these boards are an accurate microcosm for what is happening in Thailand right now. Everyone assumes that they know what the real issues and motivations are, and of course their interpretation is the only valid one. Making decisions that effect an entire nation based on personal preconceptions may not be the best way to find the way back to the land of smiles. Both sides should try to understand the opposing viewpoint with an open mind. While I believe that the redshirts have some legitimate grievances, they have put the government in the impossible position of having to give in to what seems like extortion to make any concessions. Similarly, the government be labeling the redshirts terrorists and anti-monarchy, put them in a do or die, last stand kind of mentality.

The government has followed a somewhat sucessful policy of giving the redshirts enough rope to hang themselves. Now is the time for the redshirts to switch roles. Call the government's bluff and accept the compromise. If they are insincere and start backpedaling, they will be the ones hanging themselves.

Hopefully both sides will let their true love of Thailand and the monarchy win out, and give reconciliation a chance.

By far the best Post I have read for a long time

And to me comes from the middle with out bias on either side

Now if only the red shirt leaders agree

Again I will not hang on hoping it will happen as this is not part of Taskins plan

[shawndoc]

The "if" part is there as a threat aimed at those like Seh Daeng. Essentially telling them not to mess it up for the rest of the red shirts, by launching some sort of guerrilla war, or leading new protests before the elections.

[ozzieman05]

Amnesty will be an issue here - apart from that, I would like to hear the objections to this suggestion. It sounds better than any other alternatives we have right now.

Amnesty for them would open the door for amnesty for Thaksin as well.

No way. Double standards in Thailand prohibit that.

I have said many times DOUBLE STANDARDS is not something Thais understand, this is a western term

In Thailand it's called saving face

[Redsunset]

Love the possible peace, but this was too easy.....

Why couldn't have this deal been cut weeks ago? Seems very odd to me.... have we been played a bit???!!

[ozzieman05]

Six months gives Abhisit time to ensure his mate Prayuth takes over as army commander, and also hold the budget, not that he's corrupt of course.

Six month would also give Abhsit a last chance to impress the Thai electorate. Having squandered the time he and successive Dem governments before him have already had to impress the people, he has an uphill task there.

Since anything is better than more violence, the reds may well take it, in exchange for some conditions of their own ...

Condition 1

Only red shirts can campaign in the North

all other will be chased out of the provinces

Rules 6-8 in the Red Shirt Democratic Rule Book "RBFRS"

[timekeeper]

Amnesty will be an issue here - apart from that, I would like to hear the objections to this suggestion. It sounds better than any other alternatives we have right now.

Amnesty for Abhisit? By the time the next election comes, his party will likely be dissolved and Abhisit banned from politics for 5 years.

its never gonna happen

do you really think two Oxford master of economics degree holders, Abhisit and Korn, could not successfully launder a little money if they wanted?

these are trumped up charges created by the reds and dissolution at the hand of EC commission will never happen

also by the time election comes around most of Phua Thai party will be charged with lesse majeste and treason for supporting the reds and

there will be no opposition to the democrats.......

[chadintheusa]

Election yes. Amnesty no. The red leadership does not deserve to walk away from this mess without penalty. If they want full amnesty it should be granted to the PM and other politicians as well. Lives have been lost and serious crimes have been committed the only way we won't have a repeat of this debacle is if people are held accountable. The terrorist wing of the reds should not be set free to continue their operations. The reds will attempt to hold protesters at Ratchaprasong today as they try to work out a back room deal to save their own skins. They have gotten as much as they can reasonably expect, it is time the foot soldiers hit the highway and stop being exploited.

[tombradly]

Too Little Too LATE.

The Reds of course do not trust the Government or its puppet Courts.

They will demand 3 months and continue the meltdown of the Thai economy.

What happened to the storming of the Reds we read about so often?

Never happened after they got 250 of their army men shot with rubber bullits.

Reds will push for radical reforms and to heck with compramise.

[whybother]

Sounds like the reds and the people have finally won. Well done.

That's fantastic. Now, why don't they go home?

[whybother]

Too Little Too LATE.

The Reds of course do not trust the Government or its puppet Courts.

They will demand 3 months and continue the meltdown of the Thai economy.

What happened to the storming of the Reds we read about so often?

Never happened after they got 250 of their army men shot with rubber bullits.

Reds will push for radical reforms and to heck with compramise.

The ONLY people who said anything about the reds being stormed .... were the reds.

The reds don't want reforms. They want it like it was a few years ago, when the Thaksin could appoint his own people to the major positions that should be the checks and balances in a democracy. He was able to control everything, except the army.

[senti]

a little more than 3 months, as proposed by the protesters

What solutions were the protestors offering for all Thais, or any Thais for that matter?

The protesters are not campaigning they only want ELECTIONS.

I only want a pony, but noone is giving it to me.

You reckon I should go out and block some junction about it?

[shawndoc]

Love the possible peace, but this was too easy.....

Why couldn't have this deal been cut weeks ago? Seems very odd to me.... have we been played a bit???!!

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, it isn't over yet. Although I'll stick to my earlier guess that things are probably pretty much settled behind the scenes.

But why now? I think the hospital incident was a defining moment in terms of turning public support against the reds as well as causing them to lose the support of the international press. I also think the number of recent arrests of those linked to weapons has also allowed the government to increase their behind the negotiating with the reds. Remember it was immediately after the arrest of Methee that the Reds started talking compromise and proposing 30 day dissolution and 60 days afterwords for elections. Since then they've arrested people involved in selling of grenades and those involved with an RPG attack. My guess is there are links going back to some of the higher ups in the red organization, and the government can "lose" that information should the reds agree to stop.

The Red's numbers have been dwindling, from 120k at the start, to less than 10k.

And you've got school and the rice planting season just around the corner.

[whybother]

Love the possible peace, but this was too easy.....

Why couldn't have this deal been cut weeks ago? Seems very odd to me.... have we been played a bit???!!

It's hard to cut a deal if one side won't negotiate.

[Mitker]

Can't see the red leaders getting Amnesty the PM has been firm on this he wants people charged and investigations to continue.

I think Abhisit is the one that will be looking for amnesty. Remember the Democrats face dissolution and by the time the next election comes in November, Abhisit will likely be banned from politics for 5 years for election fraud.

Well, we will all just have to sit and wait to see what the ruling is, won't we. Nothing wrong with hoping for what one hopes for, eh...

You're really trying hard, it's a pleasure to watch.

It's sometime that will happen sooner or later. There are 2 scenarios, if the Democrats are indeed dissolved:

1. The Democrats are dissolved before the elections. What will happen to the election date? Will the Democrats participate in the elections with a new party?

2. The Democrats are dissolved after the elections. If they win, we'll be at the same point again. They can't rule if they're dissolved. What then? New elections again?

I'm just saying, as long as the case against the Democrats isn't resolved, the elections will just create even more problems, either way. So the Constitution Court should really pick up their feet and resolve it before the elections.

... but before sealing the Dems case, don't forget a court has to consider if the way they acted is anywhere close to what square face's lieutenants/recruiters/cashiers were behaving repeatedly during former elections. And no -sorry-, it's not about double standards, it's about deciding when some acts become simply too insane to be witnessed in a democracy. Even a young one.

Everyone has too clear memories of practices that were considered totally ok for the emirati guy and his political machinery before it was dissolved for such.

So let's the court decide if comparable offenses have been committed.

[timekeeper]

THE NATION: PM: I have heard you fully. I just can't accept the 15-day House dissolution demand.

Is this guy serious? The red shirts have been offering 90 days (3 months) for over 2 weeks now. But Abhisit is still twisting it down to 15 days?

it was never offered officially, only under the table behind closed doors by a soft red leader

so that when it was refused as they knew it would be , no one lost face

please stick to the facts

forum rule #15)

Not to use ThaiVisa.com to post any material which is

knowingly or can be reasonably construed as false, inaccurate.

[hagler]

He hasn't actually said that elections will be held. Only that they will be held IF the issues he raised are dealt with. VERY big difference there and soooo many ways for them to wiggle their way out of it

[ozzieman05]

Sounds like the reds and the people have finally won. Well done.

On what part of Logic do you base this conclusion

[timekeeper]

veen_NT

Weng on PM's proposal: It gives good signal but we have to listen to #redshirts across the country. via @adisaklive

Doesn't Weng mean "listen to #redshirts OUTSIDE OF the country". We all know there's only ONE redshirt's opinion that will count.

Guess he's "just getting on a plane" again and they can't get his answer yet.

The PM has taken over a month to come up with this "roadmap" full of "IFs". Why are the red shirts supposed to answer immediately?

no one said they had to answer immediately

jataporn offered to have an answer by wednesday

can't you follow the words of your own leaders?

forum rule #15)

Not to use ThaiVisa.com to post any material which is

knowingly or can be reasonably construed as false, inaccurate.

[ozzieman05]

Election yes. Amnesty no. The red leadership does not deserve to walk away from this mess without penalty. If they want full amnesty it should be granted to the PM and other politicians as well. Lives have been lost and serious crimes have been committed the only way we won't have a repeat of this debacle is if people are held accountable. The terrorist wing of the reds should not be set free to continue their operations. The reds will attempt to hold protesters at Ratchaprasong today as they try to work out a back room deal to save their own skins. They have gotten as much as they can reasonably expect, it is time the foot soldiers hit the highway and stop being exploited.

What you say is correct but not going to happen

Elections are now off the agenda and Amnesty is on

The protesting will continue and get worse

all in the name of Freedom for the Thug Red leaders