Time The Red-shirts Leaders Bit The Bullet

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE

Time the red leaders bit the bullet

By Avudh Panananda

The Nation

Unless the red shirts voluntarily end their rally this week, the prospects of holding fresh elections this year or the next remain grim indeed.

BANGKOK: -- The power struggle has, unfortunately, plunged Thailand into its darkest chapter. And the animosity keeps on festering simply because the rival camps do not have the will nor the courage to sacrifice their petty interests for the sake of the greater good.

If the stand-off between the government and the red shirts is allowed to persist, then a worrisome scenario may emerge and even gain momentum.

Under the scenario, the government will keep trying to bring about reconciliation. However, as long as the fence-mending process stays incomplete, elections will be delayed. Contrary to the popular notion of a military coup, power seizure can also be spearheaded by civilians.

Without the balloting, there would be no democratic alternative to hear the voice of the people. The peaceful transition of power, a key hallmark of democracy, hinges on votes.

All sectors of society should come to their senses before having to endure the farcical effect of their own actions - trying to advance democracy but destroying the democratic rule instead.

After nearly two months of relentless protests, the government has offered the red shirts a road map for reconciliation. The key proposal is holding fresh elections by November 14 in exchange for ending the rally at Rajprasong.

However, a week has passed since the offer was made, but there is no definitive answer as to when the red shirts will disperse. This is despite the fact that the reds have endorsed the reconciliation plans.

FIERY DEBATE

The road map has ironically triggered a fiery debate, with the poll date becoming a contentious issue driving a wedge instead of fostering reconciliation.

In the pro-government camp, the yellow and the multicoloured shirts are belligerently opposing what they believe is a shameful deal with the "terrorists".

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is caught in an awkward position, on the one hand he cannot pacify his foes, and on the other, he has managed to antagonise his friends.

In the red-shirt camp, core leaders like Veera Musigapong, Jatuporn Promphan, Natthawut Saikua and weng Tojirakarn also find themselves caught in their own trap.

In order to mobilise the crowds, the core leaders churned out unrealistically high expectations. Now they are having a difficult time convincing the red shirts to accept real politicking without being seen as traitors to the opposition movement.

To a vast majority of the red shirts from the rural Northeast, the most logical outcome would be an immediate dissolution of Parliament. According to their belief, which was previously reinforced by their core leaders, they are exercising their democratic right to bring down what they see is an illegitimate government.

While red shirts from urban areas might understand the necessity for making deals, their counterparts from remote villages are worlds apart in their idealistic view. The rural reds find it unacceptable to disperse before the House is dissolved.

In addition, none of the red-shirt leaders, or their puppet masters such as ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra and Pheu Thai Party chairman Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, have the guts to explain the political reality for fear of invoking voters' wrath.

It is nonsense to expect the government to reach out and reason with rural red shirts, because they don't pay attention to state media outlets anyway.

If the red leaders are true advocates of democracy, as they insist they are, then they should bite the bullet and convince the rural reds why they should disperse.

Delaying ploys, such as counter offers for the road map and talks on the terms of surrender, will lead nowhere but cause untold damage to democracy.

-- The Nation 2010-05-11

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[Steely Dan]

The red shirt leaders have no intention of ending the rally. Their endless growing list of demands are just stalling tactics designed to hoodwink people into thinking a new election is what they want. This is amply demonstrated by their demand for Abhisit & Suthep to surrender to the DSI, this bluff was exposed when Suthep did so - now the DSI supposedly have a 'conflict of intererest' if Suthep goes to the DSI - And so it goes on ad-nauseun ad-infinitum.

It all distills down to Thaksin's desire to prevent the government overseeing the next military reshuffle. Until then they will camp out in Bangkok getting reinforcements and escalating violence and intimidation in the hope of provoking violent clashes giving the army no choice but to stage a coup.

[SomTumTiger]

Rally will end this week. DPM doesn't surrender to police otherwise. With clean up etc, should be back to business in Ratchaprasong by the weekend.

[shawndoc]

And the animosity keeps on festering simply because the rival camps do not have the will nor the courage to sacrifice their petty interests for the sake of the greater good.

Really? Pretty sure the PM has compromised quite a bit. There's only one camp that is refusing to make sacrifices for the greater good, and it isn't the government.

[Ulysses G.]

The northern businessmen I have met who support the redshirts were happy at the gains that the reds have made and that the protest was finally ending. The redshirts are going to alienate their supporters if they carry on after saying they would withdraw and perhaps force the PM to take harsh steps that he has been doing his best to avoid. They need to end this now.

[SomTumTiger]

A funny byproduct of the PM's peace plan, he seems to have calmed many of the TV poster wars as well. Powerful indeed. That alone should merit him a Cyber Nobel.

[siampolee]

"Those who ordered the crackdown must be punished and that's all we want for our brothers and sisters who died," she said. "It was not fair if the government just compensates us but lets the wrongdoers get away scot free."

Well let's look at the facts. Those that ordered the crackdown Arisman, Jutapon, Weng and Veera and puppet master Thaksin do indeed need to be brought to account for their leading a violent anti government movement.

There were no confrontations until the above named social rejects started their violent activies

It was not fair if the government just compensates us but lets the wrongdoers get away scot free."

Indeed the government has compensated the Red Shirt Sacrifices which is more than the Red Shirt Brigade have done, again the renegades named above must be brought to book.

Edited May 11, 2010 by siampolee

[jcbangkok]

Rally will end this week. DPM doesn't surrender to police otherwise. With clean up etc, should be back to business in Ratchaprasong by the weekend.

Care to make a wager?

No way things are back to normal by weekend.

[plachon]

"Those who ordered the crackdown must be punished and that's all we want for our brothers and sisters who died," she said. "It was not fair if the government just compensates us but lets the wrongdoers get away scot free."

Well let's look at the facts. Those that ordered the crackdown Arisman, Jutapon, Weng and Veera and puppet master Thaksin do indeed need to be brought to account for their leading a violent anti government movement.

There were no confrontations until the above named social rejects started their violent activies

It was not fair if the government just compensates us but lets the wrongdoers get away scot free."

Indeed the government has compensated the Red Shirt Sacrifices which is more than the Red Shirt Brigade have done, again the renegades named above must be brought to book.

Thanks for pointing this out Siampolee. I also think it is rather hypocritical and lame of the Reds that they didn't get so morally indignant about "brothers and sisters" and neighbours, innocent kids, old folks in Ayutthaya, etc. were getting blown away by Thaksin's "War on Drugs". 2,800 fellow Thais were killed extra-judicially by Thaksin's renegade police force, on his express orders, in shades of Sarit's "the Thai police can do anything under the sun" days. Perhaps if they'd called for single standards and legal accountability of leaders then none of this mess would have happened now.

Crying "it's not fair!" now, is a bit late I'm afraid. No Reds, wrongdoers should not be allowed to get away scot free or "thai free". I should be one of the bedrocks of a functioning democracy. Something you seem to have forgotten during the Thaksin years, when only bought (with your own money) votes seemed to matter. Get the violins out for the Reds..............

[jcbangkok]

One has to wonder how ignorant the red followers are to follow leaders so lacking in basic common sense as well as the laws of Thailand as well as the constitution.

These red leaders are truly buffoons whose speeches, views, constant contradictions, lies and flip flops would be comical if not hurting the people of Thailand so severely.

Edited May 11, 2010 by jcbangkok

[brahmburgers]

Rally will end this week. DPM doesn't surrender to police otherwise. With clean up etc, should be back to business in Ratchaprasong by the weekend.

If you resided in California, you could say the 'big earthquake will hit L.A. tomorrow.' And you'd be right, if you made the same prediction every day, ad infinitum.

The redshirts are going to alienate their supporters.....

Slight adjustment to your sentence structure; 'The Red Shirts have alienated their supporters.......'

I doubt the next election cycle will be remotely fair, as the roving bands of Red hot heads will harass campaigners and candidates with bodily harm and dirty tricks (as they've done recently) ....but if the election were fair, the outcome would likely show the Reds have alienated large segments of whatever support they may have had earlier.

[jcbangkok]

Back when the PM agreed to sit down with the Three Stooges and offered elections by the end of the year, instead of walking away, The Stooges should have simply asked for it to be put in writing. They and everyone else would be better off now.

It is just sickening to see these liars stand up and condemn the government for injuries their group received while breaking the law and physically resisting lawful orders when they have encouraged and threatened violence very publicly, as a means to get what they want, for a very long time.

ENOUGH IS ENOUGH and I can guarantee that after the gov't plays the reds little game of their latest updated demands and the reds still refuse to leave that even if the authorities don't move in to uphold the law that their will be other groups who do.

It is just mind boggling, even in Thailand, for these violent, selfish cowards to continue to hold this country hostage for such a prolonged period.

Since the initial show of their numbers by parading through BKK, they have accomplished nothing for themselves since and have hurt all of Thailand ... not to mention their own cause.

[Robby nz]

The PM is showing up as a brilliant strategist and the reds as completely useless.

After letting the reds think they were invincible he beat them twice on the 10th and 28th April.

Unfortunately with deaths and injuries but these must all be laid at the door of the red leaders. For those who don’t believe that try reading the accounts of some of the survivors who were wounded on the 10th: like the man who tells of being ordered to stand in front of the black shirts and red leaders, he was in the third row from the front facing the soldiers and was shot from behind. Either the army was using OZZIE bullets of the boomerang variety or...........up to you.

No I won’t give you a link look it up yourself it’s on this forum.

These ignominious (translates to face losing) defeats confined the reds to their own prison behind the tyres and in order to do something to keep the troops active they invaded the hospital, a PR disaster. Next the PM gave them an out (the roadmap) which he probably knew they wouldn’t accept without conditions. Whether it was foreseen or not this caused a very public split in the red leadership making them look horribly disorganized.

Some wanted to get it over with and get out but Sae Deang said he had talked to Thaksin (implementing him completely dead or alive) and that they now had new leaders and the others could go if they wanted. But they haven’t gone, why? Probably because they are scared of Sae Daeng and what he might do, like shoot them for if the DSI got hold of them they would want to bargain their way out by giving evidence against the others. And then if they do leave against Thaksin’s wishes they certainly won’t get their money.

They then had to come up with some excuse and the PM and deputy to surrender is it. Now their bluff has been called and it’s back to the container to try to come up with something else.

So what is the Govt to do now, other than go in with guns blazing?

Well most of the leaders are scared now so they should be frightened farther, one of them complained that a chopper flew over them a couple of days ago (a terrible infringement of their air space and civil rights) so choppers need to be overflying them several times a day.

Snipers with laser sights should be put in place in as many positions as possible that could target the red leaders except Sea Dean who probably won’t scare so easily and now probably expects to die there, better as a martyr than up against a wall . Also as many cameras as possible should be focused on the red camp.

The Army and Police around them need to be told that it is likely that shooting could start and on an order they are to pull back quickly to safe positions. (This will get to the reds) then the order should be given and all the security forces pull back; then watch the panic and the weapons come out. After a time the security forces can then drift back into position hopefully without being fired upon.

This can be done again later but this time focus the laser sights on as many of the brave leaders as possible and again hear the screaming and watch the panic and the weapons come out. By this time the human shields would be wanting out big time and no doubt some of the leaders as well.

After this has been done several times the pressure can be ramped up by letting off a few blanks when the little dots are on the leaders. Not many people left at that point and by then all the weapons will have been identified and placed so if eventually the military has to go in they will know what they are up against.

Oh <deleted> I’ve just given away the plan, silly me.

[OzMick]

Red leaders are demanding equal bail results to the PM and DPM when they report to police. They seem to have missed the vital difference that even if charges are brought (unlikely), the PM and DPM are 1st time offenders. In contrast, most of the red leaders are on bail with provision that they will not partake in illegal protest activities, provision that they have repeatedly ignored.

That makes them both repeat offenders and scoff-laws (ie a person who treats the law with contempt). Their previous bail should be forfeited and no further bail allowed. There is only one way of educating scoff-laws; incarceration.

Though not a fan of the US bail bondsman system, in this case it would have been singularly appropriate. The bondsman would send out bounty hunters to apprehend the bailed offenders breaking their bond conditions, and I'm sure private industry would be much more efficient than its govt counterpart. Why so appropriate? Both parties are in it for the money!

[selftaopath]

One has to wonder how ignorant the red followers are to follow leaders so lacking in basic common sense as well as the laws of Thailand as well as the constitution.

These red leaders are truly buffoons whose speeches, views, constant contradictions, lies and flip flops would be comical if not hurting the people of Thailand so severely.

Ignorance might stem from the educational system which does not encourage critical thinking or allow questioning of "superiors" i.e. teachers/politicians/doctors etc. Sad but this might encourage a "sheeple" mentality e.g. just follow and do what you are told.

[jcbangkok]

Anyone surprised?

Reds Do Not Accept Suthep's Appearance at DSI

Red shirt leader Weng Thovirankarn says the red shirt protesters do not accept Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban's appearance at the Department of Special Investigation and suggests that he must report to police instead.

Dr. Weng said the red shirt group does not trust the DSI chief because he is close personnel in the Center for the Resolution of Emergency Situations.

-- Tan Network 2010-05-11

[ChiangMaiFun]

It is time to end it - they have gained much - early elections etc. but there is a 'window' and it will slam shut soon and people will become even more bored and frustrated if to drags on.

[Who, me ?]

Anyone surprised?

Reds Do Not Accept Suthep's Appearance at DSI

Red shirt leader Weng Thovirankarn says the red shirt protesters do not accept Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban's appearance at the Department of Special Investigation and suggests that he must report to police instead.

Dr. Weng said the red shirt group does not trust the DSI chief because he is close personnel in the Center for the Resolution of Emergency Situations.

-- Tan Network 2010-05-11

It was to be expected!

Now, what? Any other silly demand from reds? Are we going to see all government members come around here, hand in hand, and bow to the reds leaders, and apologize? Or are they going now to care a bit about the immense majority of Thai who want to end this illegal occupation of public space?

[thisismysong]

solution for reds:

beautify their words emphasizing that life must go on, kids are our future so they should go back to school when terms open, they love the country too much to continue damaging it. blame the government for being inhumane and disperse the protestors. this way they may have a chance to be remembered as worthy.

self-imposed arrestment on seh daeng and bring him to the authority. it's silly to separate seh daeng with red shirt since they were 'together' when it all started and although they don't like it - seh daeng is their red brother.

for the government:

i hate to say this but - force is really appropriate when the number goes down again. how much damage should red do? delaying action is enabling them.

[givenall]

A funny byproduct of the PM's peace plan, he seems to have calmed many of the TV poster wars as well. Powerful indeed. That alone should merit him a Cyber Nobel.

I am still very new to Thai politics. But what I know money talks and bullshit walks.

So the only weapon PM has other than military action is to push the election day by day as long as the Red shirt do not leave the area.

Of course as I said the money will always win and depending on how much these elite owners of the 5 star hotels, etc. etc. keep losing because of the Red Shirts, the military option will be more and more an obvious alternative action if these persist.

[jcbangkok]

One has to wonder how ignorant the red followers are to follow leaders so lacking in basic common sense as well as the laws of Thailand as well as the constitution.

These red leaders are truly buffoons whose speeches, views, constant contradictions, lies and flip flops would be comical if not hurting the people of Thailand so severely.

Ignorance might stem from the educational system which does not encourage critical thinking or allow questioning of "superiors" i.e. teachers/politicians/doctors etc. Sad but this might encourage a "sheeple" mentality e.g. just follow and do what you are told.

No doubt but people still need to take responsibility. There are free sources of news and opinions everywhere and there is only so much sympathy you can give to somebody who willfully ignores it all and instead chooses to only listen to the rhetoric of their leaders who preach lawlessness and violence daily. These people making up the red mob in BKK have chosen to put themselves in a position of being brainwashed and refuse to consider any alternatives even when their leaders make numerous contradictions and are willing to sacrifice their followers lives but not even their own freedom.

[jcbangkok]

Anyone surprised?

Reds Do Not Accept Suthep's Appearance at DSI

Red shirt leader Weng Thovirankarn says the red shirt protesters do not accept Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban's appearance at the Department of Special Investigation and suggests that he must report to police instead.

Dr. Weng said the red shirt group does not trust the DSI chief because he is close personnel in the Center for the Resolution of Emergency Situations.

-- Tan Network 2010-05-11

It was to be expected!

Now, what? Any other silly demand from reds? Are we going to see all government members come around here, hand in hand, and bow to the reds leaders, and apologize? Or are they going now to care a bit about the immense majority of Thai who want to end this illegal occupation of public space?

Suthep could go to the police who by law would need to tell him they have no jurisdiction over the case now. This certainly would show, anyone with any doubt, just how clueless the red leaders are.

Edited May 11, 2010 by jcbangkok

[jcbangkok]

I think it might be a good idea for the gov't to start floating the idea of breaking away from the North East and letting them form their own country since they feel so taken advantage of by the rest of Thailand. Let them consider what they will do without free education, free school supplies, free healthcare, free income to the elderly and having to sell their rice on the open market without government subsidies.

Or better yet, see if Laos is in the market for some additional land and people.

Edited May 11, 2010 by jcbangkok

[AleG]

Suthep could go to the police who by law would need to tell him they have no jurisdiction over the case now. This certainly would show, anyone with any doubt, just how clueless the red leaders are.

You are seriously underestimating the ability to spin and deny reality of the true believers.

[WAERTH]

I think it might be a good idea for the gov't to start floating the idea of breaking away from the North East and letting them form their own country since they feel so taken advantage of by the rest of Thailand. Let them consider what they will do without free education, free school supplies, free healthcare, free income to the elderly and having to sell their rice on the open market without government subsidies.

Or better yet, see if Laos is in the market for some additional land and people.

I have some Laotian friends (real Laotians) and even they look down on the Isaan Thai (they do not call them Lao!). They feel that the Isaan population is stupid .... and that is me being friendly not to repeat their words!

W

[sanooki]

Suthep could go to the police who by law would need to tell him they have no jurisdiction over the case now. This certainly would show, anyone with any doubt, just how clueless the red leaders are.

You are seriously underestimating the ability to spin and deny reality of the true believers.

Anyone remember the "Knights Who Say Ni" from Monty Python? I have been following this whole affair with serious interest since the beginning. But for some reason, this morning I keep expecting to hear the Red leaders say they want to be brought a shrubbery!

I truly hope this ends today--

[whybother]

^

[hardy1943]

Rally will end this week. DPM doesn't surrender to police otherwise. With clean up etc, should be back to business in Ratchaprasong by the weekend.

Care to make a wager?

No way things are back to normal by weekend.

I am with you on that one.

[steveromagnino]

It was quite clear that this roadmap offer outflanked the red shirt leaders, and right now they are the ones under pressure, trying to balance the rhetoric (we will never negotiate with a terrorist PM, blah blah blah 20 min of <deleted> repeated 72 times daily every day for the last 2 months) with the reality that they want to cut a deal now as they know this is the best they can get most likely.

The general populace have NEVER risen up how they had hoped (remember the 1 million person march they promised at the beginning; they have never got above 10% of that). The large scale activities in Bangkok have NOT mobilised large numbers. The so called upcountry support has gradually reduced to the point that now even 1,500 protesters from Udon coming to the city makes news. The people who work near the red shirt protest site can see with their own eyes daily lawlessness, thugs, illegal searches - and inside the compound it isn't hard to see binge drinking, drugs, extremely unsavoury hygiene and that's not even counting the profound effect on the maids, shop staff, small entrepreneurs and so on that work in the area directly affected. Let along the rich who live or work in the area. Even despite government idiocy in being unable to clamp down on the protests in the evening 10 April; the failure to take back Ratchaprasong, the failure to capture Arisaman - the hospital invasion and the botched idiocy of the red shirts such as piling tires on the BTS line, the blood fiasco, the constant invasions of places with immediate claims of fake red shirts than the moment they walked out of the premises were suddenly 'real red shirts' again, the unwillingness to show any concern at all after the initial bomb attacks in Silom (just a nod wink it wasn't me (but I saw you in the kitchen, it wasn't me)) and the lawlessness not just in Bangkok but elsewhere. Also, the show of force by the multicolour shirts equal in number didn't help.

Just like the PAD before them, at a certain point, you have to give your followers drama and enemies. However, the fighters on the red shirt side are decreasing, and interest is waning.

Therefore, having been unable to overthrow anything, and increasingly being unable to control their own forces, the leaders have to salvage a line in the sand where they can walk back to where they came from (or in the leaders' cases, to jump in a chaffeur driven VW van and aircon off to SC Park Hotel, while the masses jump in the back of a pickup). They now realise that the likelihood of being able to get immunity from prosecution is slight, especially since Maytee has probably given up a lot of information on them. The 3 stooges MIGHT still be able to string things along, but guys like Arisaman et al will go on the run and join Juthamas, Thaksin, Wattana and others offshore to avoid prosecution.

The line in the sand is basically what they could have effortlessly got back in the negotiation phase in a 3rd meeting. And avoided all of this, and this is an issue they need to persuade their supporters on which won't be easy as it takes minimal brain power to say hold up, but we could have got that more than a month ago!

Thaksin is the fly in the ointment. He obviously has to say that he supports the road map, because it is a step in the right direction publically. But privately, he must be seething; this is almost the worst scenario; all the money he has spent and it seems unlikely that electoral reform can be left off the table (point 5) while his leaders and perhaps himself and his family if they were in the country I grew up in, would be facing potential accusations of treason.

And worse still, because the red shirts are limping away from Ratchaprasong without having really won something, it seems like they came, they saw, they won a few crumbs, but not nearly enough to justify the effort especially given they said early on they would never take the crumbs, only the whole loaf. This doesn't bode well for them in an election, and I'll my guess is that if there was an election tomorrow, I doubt the red shirts could improve significantly on their current 170+ seats. The coalition partners have sided fairly squarely publically and privately with the Dems for now. It is quite clear that Chavalit is a lame duck, but the red shirts don't have another quality option right now to choose from for PT leadership. Chavalit is far more damaged goods than Samak - as well as being older and less competent, he also has the nice track record of leading Thailand headfirst into the Asian Crisis, he's facing charges himself for the clampdown on the PAD and most importantly, he has long been regarded even by foreign academics such as McCargo as having 'mixed loyalties' - something very powerful that the red shirts have played with but eventually have realised that it is not a support winner.

I'm sure there is a private conversation going on regarding what each side knows about the other right now, away from our ears, and that's the real negotation right now.

[shawndoc]

The general populace have NEVER risen up how they had hoped (remember the 1 million person march they promised at the beginning;

Not just the beginning, Weng was promising 1 million for this last weekend.