Thai Turmoil 'disastrous' For Tourism: Finance Minister

[webfact]

Thai turmoil 'disastrous' for tourism: finance minister

TOKYO (AFP) -- Thailand's violent political turmoil has had a "disastrous" effect on the vital tourism sector, the country's finance minister said Friday, stressing that the overall economy remained sound.

"Tourism in value terms accounts for six percent of our GDP," Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij told a Tokyo conference, adding that the sector also accounts for "as much as 15 to 20 percent of the total employment."

"And clearly, with the events that took place over the past several weeks, and the pictures of these events flashing across TV screens across the world, it is going to have a very disastrous impact on tourism."

Thai security forces on Wednesday crushed a six-week protest by anti-government protesters in street battles that left 15 people dead and saw arsonists torch some 36 key buildings across the capital Bangkok.

The stock exchange and the nation's biggest shopping mall were among locations torched in the chaotic aftermath of the campaign to end the "Red Shirt" protesters' occupation of Bangkok's top retail district.

Korn said that "we anticipate that the impact on the GDP of the protest so far is probably between 0.3 and 0.5 percent of GDP."

However, he stressed that the wider economic picture was sound in the kingdom, telling the conference that "we expect the formal Q1 (first quarter) figure to be in two digits" this year.

"So, in spite of our political problems, I foresee positive growth for the year 2010. More importantly, our overall financial standing is sound.

"We have a consistent foreign account surplus, record foreign exchange reserves, and good fiscal space. Our stock market has been robust, as of course has been our exchange rate," he said.

Thai troops Thursday hunted for militant protesters as authorities extended a night curfew in the capital despite tentative signs of a return to normality.

The finance minister said that "in the past 30 hours or so the situation has been very quiet, thankfully" and said that "outside of Bangkok, the latest report is that the situation is very calm."

The Reds are mostly supporters of ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra who was ousted in a 2006 coup and who is now accused by the government of bankrolling the protests and inciting the deadly unrest.

The protests have been driven by rising disenchantment by Thailand's rural and urban poor against the Bangkok-centred money and power elite.

Korn said: "Thailand is committed to making our democracy work. We believe that building on giving equal rights to all our citizens is essential to sustainable economic development in the long term."

The lesson from the political turmoil, he said, "might be that open, competitive, and relatively equal access to resources and opportunities is more important than the strict Western model of democracy."

-- ©Copyright AFP 2010-05-21

Published with written approval from AFP.

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[webfact]

Thailand picks up the pieces after deadly conflict

by Sarah Stewart

BANGKOK (AFP) -- Thailand picked up the pieces Friday after violence and mayhem triggered by a crackdown on anti-government protests, as the focus swung to recovery and reconciliation in a divided nation.

Soldiers patrolled across central Bangkok to crush the last pockets of resistance from militants in the "Red Shirts" movement, who went on the rampage after their leaders surrendered and ended their campaign of street rallies.

But across central Bangkok a huge clean-up was under way, after a terrifying outbreak of looting and burning that saw some 36 major buildings go up in flames including the stock exchange and the nation's biggest mall.

City workers used everything from brooms to bulldozers to clear debris left behind after two months of rolling demonstrations, including the remnants of towering barricades the Reds had used to occupy a top shopping district.

In the hotspots where protesters have battled with security forces over the past week, roads were being cleared of burned tyres, and concrete blocks and stones that had been used as missiles.

The army combed through the main protest area, which paralysed Bangkok's ritziest shopping district, fearing explosive devices and the Central World mall, in ruins and partly collapsed, was declared a danger zone.

"Time to Rebuild," the Nation newspaper said in a headline, as reports said the damage bill from the torched buildings alone could reach 40 billion baht (1.2 billion dollars).

Thailand has suffered regular bouts of civil unrest in its turbulent history, including 18 actual or attempted coups since 1932, and its citizens are famed for their resilience and resourcefulness.

But even after Bangkok's vast malls and five-star hotels are dusted down and reopened, the emotional wounds of unrest that has left 83 dead since mid-March will take much longer to heal.

Thailand is largely split between the Reds, mostly urban and rural poor who are demanding the ouster of a government they condemn as undemocratic, and rival pro-establishment "Yellow Shirts" who represent the nation's elites.

"No one knows how long it will take to close the deep divisions that have been opened within Thai families and society," the Bangkok Post said in a front page editorial.

"Whatever our future, there is no doubt that all Thais -- no matter what our personal beliefs and views -- must play a role in ensuring that such a dismal state of affairs never happens again."

The Reds are mostly supporters of ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a 2006 coup. The billionaire tycoon was accused of gross rights abuses and corruption, but won grassroots support with his populist policies.

Thaksin's elected allies were ejected in a controversial court ruling, paving the way for the administration of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to be appointed in a 2008 army-backed parliamentary vote.

Bangkok and 23 other provinces in the rural north and northeast -- the Reds' heartland -- have been put under a curfew until Sunday to try to contain the conflict and prevent it from spreading across the nation.

Four provincial halls were targeted by arsonists Wednesday, and some 13,000 Reds supporters rallied in rural areas in defiance of a state of emergency declared in the region, the army said.

Bangkok Metropolitan Police spokesman General Piya Uthayo said there had been no major incidents in the capital overnight, the second under curfew.

"There was no violence and in general it's calm," he said.

Despite tentative attempts to return to normality, traffic was still thin in Bangkok with government offices, banks, schools and the stock exchange closed to keep civilians off the streets, and the city's two main train networks shut.

-- ©Copyright AFP 2010-05-21

Published with written approval from AFP.

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[AndyCapps]

Nobody coming this monh, occupancy at 23% here in Bangkok,I willbe staying in HuaHin for thenext 2 weeks,wonder what its like their.

[CHdiver]

Nobody coming this monh, occupancy at 23% here in Bangkok,I willbe staying in HuaHin for thenext 2 weeks,wonder what its like their.

I did read in a Swiss Newspaper that there where not many People where changing away from Thailand and many Hotels in Phuket where fully booked.

Here is the link to the Swiss Newspaper in German. Tagesanzeiger

[givenall]

I really think the government should allow all the effected businesses to sue these leaders and backers for all loses that they have and will suffer in future. Taking the money away from the rich is the best punishment

[jayjay0]

Just wonderful15% to 20% of the working force related to tourism witch is down and right next door to out and the government says the financial outlook is good. That means business as usual. The little guys don't count.

I live in the Night Bazaar area in Chiang Mai. The business here has been way down for two years ever since the yellow shirts told the world they were unwelcome here. There have been nights you could almost shoot a shotgun through it and only hit a seller. Now it can only get worse. That means that all the support industries will get worse.

I see where there is 1,000 jobs lost as a result of the rally in one of the shopping centers in Bangkok.

On another note I see where they issued warrants for Thaksin's arrest on terrorism charges and three hours later took them back. That didn't take long. On the other hand they are being fair they are treating him the same as they did the yellow shirt leaders.

[ESB7]

Nobody coming this monh, occupancy at 23% here in Bangkok,I willbe staying in HuaHin for thenext 2 weeks,wonder what its like their.

Still busy with Thais at the weekend but you can win a 1,000 baht if you play and win the game 'spot the tourist'.....more life in a morgue.

[bigbossron]

Maybe devaluate the bath?

[keeniau96]

Don't know where the Swiss get their news re Phuket but local reports say hotel occupancy is at lowest ever, down to 40%. Tesco-Lotus closed today because of concerns about possible terrorism. Walking through Central Festival Yesterday I have never seen it so empty since it opened years ago.

No reports about actual incidents, but the tourist count is down. Hotels and businesses are reported to be lower than after the tsunami.

[witold]

Recovery and impact hinges on how how things are handled now. If it becomes a long protracted clash with occasional small attacks/explosions, many people will just skip LOS. On the other hand, if the government can reassure everyone that the trouble is over and there is no more turmoil, tourists won't care what happened last year, or last month. Strong Baht is a much bigger factor keeping people away.

[SomTumTiger]

Thank God we have a good man like Korn in the finance ministry, instead one of the Thaksin morons.

[Sisaketmike]

Nobody coming this monh, occupancy at 23% here in Bangkok,I willbe staying in HuaHin for thenext 2 weeks,wonder what its like their.

I did read in a Swiss Newspaper that there where not many People where changing away from Thailand and many Hotels in Phuket where fully booked.

Here is the link to the Swiss Newspaper in German. Tagesanzeiger

I've read some of this story. It's a guy having a travel agency. Don't believe this bla, bla, bla.

[Sisaketmike]

Thank God we have a good man like Korn in the finance ministry, instead one of the Thaksin morons.

Isn't that a Rock band?

[xminator]

That Thailand is so dependent on tourism is a myth. Look at the Baht after years of unrest. Still going stronger.

[Jingthing]

15 to 20 percent of EMPLOYMENT is very significant. Even if half of those people lose their jobs long term (and that seems probable) that is a very big deal.

[juehoe]

Not to forget the disaster after the airport blockage of the Yellow Shirts two years ago...

[truthfulfox]

Thank God we have a good man like Korn in the finance ministry, instead one of the Thaksin morons.

thank budha you mean

[Jingthing]

Not to forget the disaster after the airport blockage of the Yellow Shirts two years ago...

Not forgetting. However, the damage from the reds is easily a HUNDRED times more severe and long term than the airport incident. Face reality. There is no comparison in severity.

[CHdiver]

Don't know where the Swiss get their news re Phuket but local reports say hotel occupancy is at lowest ever, down to 40%. Tesco-Lotus closed today because of concerns about possible terrorism. Walking through Central Festival Yesterday I have never seen it so empty since it opened years ago.

No reports about actual incidents, but the tourist count is down. Hotels and businesses are reported to be lower than after the tsunami.

According to the Article that comes from the Tour Operators. They got a "we are booked out" from Hotels. Looking at the Situation here in Pattaya I do wonder where all the Tourists should be. But I did not want to hide possible good News.

[julemanden]

Nobody coming this monh, occupancy at 23% here in Bangkok,I willbe staying in HuaHin for thenext 2 weeks,wonder what its like their.

Hot and humid.... Some even say boring

[gatecrasher]

Well done Abhibsit!

[Thai at Heart]

15 to 20 percent of EMPLOYMENT is very significant. Even if half of those people lose their jobs long term (and that seems probable) that is a very big deal.

And let us not forget, that of these jobs aside from those in the highest rated hotels rate much more than 5 to 15k per month. Hardly stellar earnings.

Whilst we all agree that it only makes up 6% of GDP on paper, it as we can see, supports millions of people.

Edited May 21, 2010 by Thai at Heart

[stuandchris]

Phuket is nowhere near 40% full, looking at the touristy bits on the island I wouod be suprised if the true fiqure was 10% full. Pehaps they mean 40% of normal low season occupancy.

[Oberkommando]

I did read in a Swiss Newspaper that there where not many People where changing away from Thailand and many Hotels in Phuket where fully booked.

That would be utter nonsense as most places in Phuket are currently empty.

However, the damage from the reds is easily a HUNDRED times more severe and long term than the airport incident.

Taking over and closing international airports causes far more damage to the economy than burning shopping malls and occupying downtown areas I'm afraid.

The reds might have kept tourists away from Bangkok but the PAD ensured nobody could come to Thailand at all.

It's a crying shame the PAD were not punished and obviously the red shirts saw that precedent.

Edited May 21, 2010 by Oberkommando

[thurien]

... the tourist count is down. Hotels and businesses are reported to be lower than after the tsunami.

now comes the Thai logic to all this: "Because of this grossly deteriorated situation, less arrivals, a

trifle of hotel bookings we are forced to increase our prices now by 30% at least, another 55% beginning

of high season 2010"

[aussiestyle1983]

"Not to forget the disaster after the airport blockage of the Yellow Shirts two years ago..."

That is still in my mind. My Thai mother-in-law had to extend her allready long vacation in Australia because the Airport takeover started 2 days before she was due to return to BKK.

1.5 years later, and here we go again. It seems as if everytime I have anything to do with Thailand planned, the shit hits the fan. I don't think I will visit there for many years now - and my Thai wife feels the same.

I was due to land in Bangkok tonight with my wife for a 2 month vacation. Until about 2 weeks ago, we were still comming. But after the latest round between the reds and the army began, we said stuff it. It just won't be the same. We will now go to the USa and feed their economy for 2 months and we have been given full refunds for everything we had booked in LOS - including non-refundable flights on Thai. Whilst I want Thailand to recover from this, it only has itself to blame for the consequences of its actions. Som nam na...

[Jingthing]

I did read in a Swiss Newspaper that there where not many People where changing away from Thailand and many Hotels in Phuket where fully booked.

That would be utter nonsense as most places in Phuket are currently empty.

However, the damage from the reds is easily a HUNDRED times more severe and long term than the airport incident.

Taking over and closing international airports causes far more damage to the economy than burning shopping malls and occupying downtown areas I'm afraid.

The reds might have kept tourists away from Bangkok but the PAD ensured nobody could come to Thailand at all.

It's a crying shame the PAD were not punished and obviously the red shirts saw that precedent.

You are not being honest at all. The airport event was short. There was not major destruction, gun battles, burning buildings. I can't respect opinions of people who don't face basic facts. The impact of this crisis is objectively MUCH MORE SEVERE than the airport event. The reds used that as an excuse, and they outdid themselves.

[Tiger62]

In europe the closure of the airport last year could be seen has a sort of strike. But the last events are seen like a civil war. Do you think that tourist with childrens will come to Thailand this year or even next year. Thailand has lost her credibility and nobody now will fall for any falacious marketing campaign. I am in Europe for one month now and i can tell you that Thailand was making the headlines everyday , and now all the newspapers and magazines are issuing very negative articles about thailand and the thai society, even speaking of what is not possible to speak in the Kingdom. None of theses news are positive for Thailand. For this year forget about high season as well. Next year the 4 and 5 stars hotels and spa will have to offer 2 stars prices, the end of the dream. "Quality tourists" don't go to war zones or to countries with the army in the streets. It's even worse than if we had muslim terrorists attacks in BKK.

[Jingthing]

Exactly. For healing to happen on all sides, facts are going to have to be faced. And a basic fact is the recent events are indeed the most severe mess in modern Thai history, entirely DWARFING the airport event.

[jackr]

Maybe devaluate the bath?

Yep, I don't value a bath either; much prefer a shower.

I willbe staying in HuaHin for thenext 2 weeks,wonder what its like their.

Hot and humid.... Some even say boring

Perhaps a little staid for sexpat rockers but HH is nice and certainly one-up from that dodgy, grotty place across the Gulf.