Gbp Vs Thb

[ChiangMaiFun]

46.76 today TT

any recovery? dropping further? any chance Thai government will let the Baht drop?

I need to transfer large sum and don't know whetehr to hold or fold

[utneflyte]

Did you look at the 5 year chart of GBP/THB?

It's scary, constant decline: 5 Year GBP-THB

If I was in the same situation, I would hold for a week or two. Could bounce up a bit to 49... As it dropped from 49.5 to 46.5 rather quickly. (Look at the 3 month chart, look near end of May)

No one can tell you what the government will do, but if the past 5 years are any indications at all... it looks rather bad...

[ESB7]

Patience, announcments just made to cut decifiet, lest not forget, election was only a few weeks ago. Sterling will rise to mid 50s soon and 60 at year end.

[ChiangMaiFun]

Did you look at the 5 year chart of GBP/THB?

It's scary, constant decline: 5 Year GBP-THB

If I was in the same situation, I would hold for a week or two. Could bounce up a bit to 49... As it dropped from 49.5 to 46.5 rather quickly. (Look at the 3 month chart, look near end of May)

No one can tell you what the government will do, but if the past 5 years are any indications at all... it looks rather bad...

Thanks - depressing sight that graph...

[ChiangMaiFun]

Patience, announcments just made to cut decifiet, lest not forget, election was only a few weeks ago. Sterling will rise to mid 50s soon and 60 at year end.

thanks - here's hoping... I will think mid-50s a Godsend - I don't even want to think about the days when it was 70s

I have to transfer GBP to THB by Oct - no choice it's just 'when' to hit the button

[utneflyte]

I have to transfer GBP to THB by Oct - no choice it's just 'when' to hit the button

Oh, if you have until October, then yes, you have hope. I think 60 by year end is unrealistic (looking at history), 50 seems more likely... assuming nothing else goes wrong between now and then...

[Naam]

Patience, announcments just made to cut decifiet, lest not forget, election was only a few weeks ago. Sterling will rise to mid 50s soon and 60 at year end...

...then 70 end of 2011 and 95 end of 2012

[billd766]

Patience, announcments just made to cut decifiet, lest not forget, election was only a few weeks ago. Sterling will rise to mid 50s soon and 60 at year end...

...then 70 end of 2011 and 95 end of 2012

Can you please tell me what you smoke and drink to get these wonderful dreams?

I want some tooooooooooooooo.

[mommysboy]

Nobody knows anymore! It's a straight 50/50 gamble. Feeling lucky?

Could be worse, look at the Euro!

[chiang mai]

I know but I'm not saying.

[Naam]

Patience, announcments just made to cut decifiet, lest not forget, election was only a few weeks ago. Sterling will rise to mid 50s soon and 60 at year end...

...then 70 end of 2011 and 95 end of 2012

Can you please tell me what you smoke and drink to get these wonderful dreams? I want some tooooooooooooooo.

it's not what i ingest. it was the tooth fairy who told me some days ago. she even mentioned "112.50 before Christmas". unfortunately she did not tell me which year

[Pib]

Nobody knows anymore! It's a straight 50/50 gamble. Feeling lucky?

Could be worse, look at the Euro!

When it comes to currency forecasting you can do better than a 50/50 coin flip gamble; go with a drunken dart throw as I think most of the so-called experts use this method.

Problem with the Euro?! Well, it's going to have little effect on Thailand based on a Bangkok Post news story today as the BOT says since the dollar has been fairly stable and since most accounts are settled in dollars then Thai exports won't be hurt much. Of course there is one litlte problem with this reasoning and that is European company XYZ has to convert Euro's to Dollars to pay for the Thai item...more Euro's needed to buy one Dollar means a higher cost and fewer Thai items bought.

[hansum]

If youve got until October i'd hold off and see what happens, the markets may like the austerity measures going on in Europe at the moment, whilst Obama keeps on piling up the US debt like its never gone up before ... in a few months it'll no doubt be the dollars turn to take a beating.

Naam why do you always have to write such crap on every topic to do with exchange rates, youre overly predictable at best.

[Naam]

If youve got until October i'd hold off and see what happens, the markets may like the austerity measures going on in Europe at the moment, whilst Obama keeps on piling up the US debt like its never gone up before ... in a few months it'll no doubt be the dollars turn to take a beating.

Naam why do you always have to write such crap on every topic to do with exchange rates, youre overly predictable at best.

read my lips: my crap is not crappier than any of the crappy prophecies and forecasts on forex which (in most cases) are generated by wishful thinking or wet dreams.

[thaimate]

If youve got until October i'd hold off and see what happens, the markets may like the austerity measures going on in Europe at the moment, whilst Obama keeps on piling up the US debt like its never gone up before ... in a few months it'll no doubt be the dollars turn to take a beating.

Naam why do you always have to write such crap on every topic to do with exchange rates, youre overly predictable at best.

read my lips: my crap is not crappier than any of the crappy prophecies and forecasts on forex which (in most cases) are generated by wishful thinking or wet dreams.

Naam

we all know your thaughts ,now please do us all a favour and stop,i have very rarely ever heard you post anything happy ,you must be a bundle of laughs and a real "Johnny no mates" in real life.

[lannarebirth]

Unless it is a bad tick, it would appear someone wanted all their money "to go" PDQ.

Quotes for USDTHB=X - Yahoo! Finance=

[jcon]

Unless it is a bad tick, it would appear someone wanted all their money "to go" PDQ.

Quotes for USDTHB=X - Yahoo! Finance=

I wonder about the Yahoo quotes. For more than two years now I still can't explain the Yahoo chart of the THB/SEK (Swedish Krona) exactly at the end of the months October, November, December of 2007 and January of 2008. I can't link directly to that time frame (or at least I don't know how), but if you go back and narrow down the dates to just Oct '07 to Feb '08 of the chart of SEKTHB=x (or THBSEK=x) you'll get strange ticks of what seems off by 2 orders of magnitude at the end of the months mentioned. What do you make of it, lanna (or anybody else)?

[apetley]

Before there is any major rebound of Sterling two things have to happen at the very least.

Substantial inroads have to be made into the deficit and interest rates have to rise from their historic lows.

It looks as though the Govt are serious about tackling the deficit so that hints at a rise in Sterling.

As for interest rates, I lost my crystal ball some way back

[12DrinkMore]

Before there is any major rebound of Sterling two things have to happen at the very least.

Substantial inroads have to be made into the deficit and interest rates have to rise from their historic lows.

It looks as though the Govt are serious about tackling the deficit so that hints at a rise in Sterling.

The problem is that all the austerity cuts will mean less spending in the economy and therefore even fewer jobs, resulting in the GDP falling and less tax revenues, although maybe the proposed 40% capital gains tax will bring in a few billion? So I don't think the UK is going to be an attractive place for the cash sloshing around internationally looking for a home.

As for interest rates, I lost my crystal ball some way back

Read Merv's lips. No movement upwards for the next twelve months. Even if CPI is at 3.7 and RPI another 2% above that, he reckons on deflationary pressures, and don't forget we are still bailing out the banks and debtors.

I reckon the GBP will bounce around the 45 to 49 Baht box for a while until it breaks through the bottom and then bounces around between 41 and 44. But that is just my wild guess based on the Asian financial crisis which Asia came out of after a couple of years with production roaring away, and my opinion that the Western financial crisis is a lot worse, by no means over, it has been going on for two years now, I can't see any end in sight and I can't see any means of spurring manufacturing in the UK to generate real money to pay down the debts.

And I am trying to be optimistic.

But back to the OP.

Why not hedge your bets? Make regular transfers over the time you have to average out any movements, and if the GBP moves up to 49 move the lot quickly.....

[ChiangMaiFun]

Before there is any major rebound of Sterling two things have to happen at the very least.

Substantial inroads have to be made into the deficit and interest rates have to rise from their historic lows.

It looks as though the Govt are serious about tackling the deficit so that hints at a rise in Sterling.

The problem is that all the austerity cuts will mean less spending in the economy and therefore even fewer jobs, resulting in the GDP falling and less tax revenues, although maybe the proposed 40% capital gains tax will bring in a few billion? So I don't think the UK is going to be an attractive place for the cash sloshing around internationally looking for a home.

As for interest rates, I lost my crystal ball some way back

Read Merv's lips. No movement upwards for the next twelve months. Even if CPI is at 3.7 and RPI another 2% above that, he reckons on deflationary pressures, and don't forget we are still bailing out the banks and debtors.

I reckon the GBP will bounce around the 45 to 49 Baht box for a while until it breaks through the bottom and then bounces around between 41 and 44. But that is just my wild guess based on the Asian financial crisis which Asia came out of after a couple of years with production roaring away, and my opinion that the Western financial crisis is a lot worse, by no means over, it has been going on for two years now, I can't see any end in sight and I can't see any means of spurring manufacturing in the UK to generate real money to pay down the debts.

And I am trying to be optimistic.

But back to the OP.

Why not hedge your bets? Make regular transfers over the time you have to average out any movements, and if the GBP moves up to 49 move the lot quickly.....

yes that's exactly what I'm going to do - I never thought I'd see the day when I got excited at GBP 'hitting' 47! jeeze... I think if it get's to near 50 I need to jump in - looking at the chart, though, over 5 years - Aug always sees a 'high' and June/July a relative 'low' so whatever it is in Aug is the best we are going to get for awhile I would think - but then what I just said might be utter BS coz know one knows!

[yabaaaa]

If youve got until October i'd hold off and see what happens, the markets may like the austerity measures going on in Europe at the moment, whilst Obama keeps on piling up the US debt like its never gone up before ... in a few months it'll no doubt be the dollars turn to take a beating.

Naam why do you always have to write such crap on every topic to do with exchange rates, youre overly predictable at best.

read my lips: my crap is not crappier than any of the crappy prophecies and forecasts on forex which (in most cases) are generated by wishful thinking or wet dreams.

Naam

we all know your thaughts ,now please do us all a favour and stop,i have very rarely ever heard you post anything happy ,you must be a bundle of laughs and a real "Johnny no mates" in real life.

And yet despite your allegations a recent poll suggested Naam was on of the most favourite posters................ I like his dog's comments best

[Naam]

If youve got until October i'd hold off and see what happens, the markets may like the austerity measures going on in Europe at the moment, whilst Obama keeps on piling up the US debt like its never gone up before ... in a few months it'll no doubt be the dollars turn to take a beating.

Naam why do you always have to write such crap on every topic to do with exchange rates, youre overly predictable at best.

read my lips: my crap is not crappier than any of the crappy prophecies and forecasts on forex which (in most cases) are generated by wishful thinking or wet dreams.

Naam

we all know your thaughts ,now please do us all a favour and stop,i have very rarely ever heard you post anything happy ,you must be a bundle of laughs and a real "Johnny no mates" in real life.

And yet despite your allegations a recent poll suggested Naam was on of the most favourite posters................ I like his dog's comments best

the only participants in this poll must have been my dogs as i have been striving for years to become the most hated poster of Thaivisa.

[teletiger]

JMan and have got that title well tied down.

Regards.

[12DrinkMore]

the only participants in this poll must have been my dogs as i have been striving for years to become the most hated poster of Thaivisa.

I thought you had changed and were striving to become Mr Fave, well, you did delete the footnote a good while ago

[puipuitom]

Quite some years ago I followed a 13 weeks seminar at the University of Amsterdam in International Economic Affairs, in fact: forces working on currencies exchanges.

At the end one of the students thanked the professor, as now we understood all from before the Golden Standard till the present day. But .."can you tell us how to forecast the exchange rate of the US$ versus the Euro? ".

His calm reply was: for the US$ exchange rate towards the Euro, and all other mayor exchage rates, you have to be at the Faculty of Psychology and NOT at the faculty of Economics".

[Enjibenji]

just a few questions if anyone can answer that would be much appreciated.

1 - On June 12, the exchange rate was 47.3. The next day, it fell to 46.5 (and it only went up 0.003 baht or so today). How can it drop so quick and so sudden like that? That is almost a full baht in 1 day.

2 - Every saturday and sunday I see the pound falling always. Is this due to stock markets in UK being closed but still being kept open in Thailand (or something?). If so, does it normally pick up to levels it was last on and strengthen during the week? Pretty sure every Sunday i've seen the pound drop 0.5 baht at least..

finally, 3 - was there bad news from the UK that caused an almost 1 baht drop in the pound over the weekend or is it to do with the euro affecting the pound?

Thanks

[inthepink]

I don't know where you are getting your exchange rate quotes from but the pound lost a fair bit of ground against the dollar on Friday 11th which would explain a fall against the baht on that day. Nobody can predict long term exchange rates with any certainty but really you want to be looking at the GBP/USD rate as this is what will mainly affect the GBP/THB cross.

As far as it reaching 60 baht by year end I think that's extremely unlikely unless the Thai economy collapses. I don't think sterling has ever made a 27% gain against the dollar within that kind of time-frame (not in the last 20 years anyway) and the Thai economy looks in a far better state than either the US or UK economies.

Edited June 14, 2010 by inthepink

[Bonio]

Why don't you use a currency trading company and set the rate at one that you are happy with.

If you tell them you want to trade at 50:1 they will move at that rate when it occurs. They get a slightly better rate so make their money this way but they also get a much better rate for you than doing it yourself through your bank. If you move more than £15,000 it's free. If you move less there is a £10 charge.

[Naam]

Why don't you use a currency trading company and set the rate at one that you are happy with. If you tell them you want to trade at 50:1 they will move at that rate when it occurs. They get a slightly better rate so make their money this way but they also get a much better rate for you than doing it yourself through your bank. If you move more than £15,000 it's free. If you move less there is a £10 charge.

you don't need a "currency company" for that action. any proper bank will do it.

[chiang mai]

It's difficult to know what might happen to GBP/THB or rather to GBP/USD, it's flirting with 1.48 currently which is the highest it's been for a while - many market watchers however are suggesting it may fall after the emergency budget next week. So what are the factors that may affect the exchange rate, the depth and strength of the emergency budget is certainly one factor, if the markets see it as a positive budget, one that will reduce spending without compromising the recovery then it will be viewed positively.

But events in Europe are looking messy and if they continue on their current course, a flight to safety is possible and that would also be positive for the Pound - but those two events would both have to occur for the Pound to surge. So that only leaves the strength of the Pound against USD and the American economy does not appear to be in brilliant shape with much talk of double dips, hmm, so where does that leave us, lots of if's and maybe's but on balance with the probability that GBP could strengthen in the next week, todays UK unemployment (ILO) figures were worse than expected but seem to have done nothing negative to GBP. Yes, I think I'm going to go with a slightly strengthening GBP although I can't begin to fathom the Thai Baht side of things, a real wild card if ever there was one, presumably if will remain stable at an absolute minimum and likely strengthen, probably not a bad time to change GBP for THB I reckon.

Edited June 16, 2010 by chiang mai