Thai PM Abhisit Says No Plan For Elections This Year

[chuang]

No early election.....he knows he will loose....

[kissdani]

Not many Thai people actually believe Abhisit or support that govt.

Not many people can claim to know what 60 odd million people are thinking. You are clearly the exception.

There have been elections in the past that can give you a clue. And there are opinion polls where people get asked if the support the Democrat govt or not or if they have confidence in the government's national reform plan or not. That gives you a clue too. These poll results stating the opposite of the at TVF often repeated but unfounded claim that the govt has the support of the majority of Thai people.

Not 60 million but around 40 million people eligible to vote, because around one-third of the Thai people are younger than 18.

[rixalex]

There have been elections in the past that can give you a clue.

Judging from the last election, support is very divided. Stating only that not many Thai people support the government is misleading as it implies support for the opposition.

And there are opinion polls where people get asked if the support the Democrat govt or not or if they have confidence in the government's national reform plan or not. That gives you a clue too.

Polls here are next to useless, whatever their results might be.

Not 60 million but around 40 million people eligible to vote, because around one-third of the Thai people are younger than 18.

I am aware that 60 million is not the number of people that get to vote, but your comment made reference to Thai people, not the Thai electorate.

[jackdawson]

all i know is results matter and there will be no election until the end of 2011 .

w/ the miscalculation of the reds at EVERY possible point (i.e., invading BKK , terrorizing a hospital (!), not accepting an earlier date and then burning the city down) , it worked out perfectly (except for the burning the city down part) . the PM and his eye-glassed right hand man totally played them .

Edited July 3, 2010 by jackdawson

[kissdani]

There have been elections in the past that can give you a clue.

Judging from the last election, support is very divided. Stating only that not many Thai people support the government is misleading as it implies support for the opposition.

No, i am implying nothing. When I am stating not many Thai people support the government means that not many Thai people support the government . And that is true. Abhisit has not much credibility.

[rubl]

There have been elections in the past that can give you a clue.

Judging from the last election, support is very divided. Stating only that not many Thai people support the government is misleading as it implies support for the opposition.

No, i am implying nothing. When I am stating not many Thai people support the government means that not many Thai people support the government . And that is true. Abhisit has not much credibility.

I assume you know because the good Lord told you ?

[cdnvic]

Removed inflammatory comments that are unsubstantiated. Just because you think you are anonymous doesn't protect you or the forum from libel laws.

[IsaanAndy]

No reason to have elections. Abhisit has the support of the majority. They are quite content to allow him to govern. Many of the current government's initiatives are good for the long term benefit of Thai people. (no, not all - the cyber scouts crap, is an example of stupidity).

How can a unelected PM have the support of the majority?

You only get the support of the electorate by allowing an election through the ballot box, which Abhisit has never had.

The only people who are content are the ones in BKK, the people where I live are most certainly not.

The election is being delayed as long as possible so they can continue to line their pockets as they know when it comes they will lose hands down.

[jackdawson]

"the people where I live are most certainly not"

i know . maybe they can get paid 500 baht a day to squat in bkk for 2 months and then burn the city down on the way back to the rice fields .

dyu u think that would make them content ?

Edited July 4, 2010 by jackdawson

[rixalex]

How can a unelected PM have the support of the majority?

You only get the support of the electorate by allowing an election through the ballot box, which Abhisit has never had.

Abhisit has been elected as MP at the ballot box seven times - (several more times that Thaksin ever has by the way).

In becoming PM Abhisit wasn't elected directly by the people. No PM of Thailand ever has been. He was elected by MPs. This is the way the parliamentary system works.

Edited July 4, 2010 by rixalex

[truethailand]

I wonder what will happen at the end of next year when there is still no reconciliation?

Will Abhisit find some way to not have an election because there is still work to be done

or if any party wins except that backed by the army, will there be another coup?

I dont believe there will an election, I believe that elections will be called but will never take place because the army will find reason to stage a coup. Democrats cannot win an open election and they know it and they cannot allow the reds in. Letting the reds in and then using the courts and the military to remove them would just be a tad too much for decent people. The reds will not need to buy votes, pictures of dead protesters will ensure their votes. Reconcilliation - not coming to a place near you soon. Nobody wants it. It would be nice if it happened but the army need to concede ground and the reds have to forget revenge... wont happen

[way2muchcoffee]

I wonder what will happen at the end of next year when there is still no reconciliation?

Will Abhisit find some way to not have an election because there is still work to be done

or if any party wins except that backed by the army, will there be another coup?

I dont believe there will an election, I believe that elections will be called but will never take place because the army will find reason to stage a coup. Democrats cannot win an open election and they know it and they cannot allow the reds in. Letting the reds in and then using the courts and the military to remove them would just be a tad too much for decent people. The reds will not need to buy votes, pictures of dead protesters will ensure their votes. Reconciliation - not coming to a place near you soon. Nobody wants it. It would be nice if it happened but the army need to concede ground and the reds have to forget revenge... wont happen

I think there will be an election. I think candidates on both sides will be murdered, with more Dems getting killed. I think PTP will be able to campaign in the south but the Dems will be prevented from campaigning in the North and Northeast. The PTP will commit massive electoral fraud while the Dems will be guilty of minor violations. The elections will go ahead, but will be tainted.

It will be a very close contest, but the current coalition will win the day. The reds will demonstrate and the PTP will cry foul because they will likely win a plurality and will feel cheated that they don't get to form government, even though they won't control the majority of the MPs. The PTP will be an obstructionist opposition party.

If current coalition partners realign with the PTP giving them control of government the PAD will come out of the closet and demonstrate over the unfair voting practices in the North and Northeast. In this case the Dems will act like a proper opposition party and form a shadow government and respect the vote. Thet will be willing to work with the PTP (as an opposition member) and will not try to obstruct policies that are good for the country.

All of this assumes that the Dems are not dissolved before the elections and that the current constitution will be in place without amendment. Constitutional changes could be made that gets the Dems off the hook and sees the banned TRT and PPP candidates' eligibility reinstated.

Edited July 4, 2010 by way2muchcoffee

[rixalex]

Democrats cannot win an open election and they know it and they cannot allow the reds in.

People who declare with such certainty which party can win, which party can't, seem to think that political beliefs are set in stone. They are not. One party can dominate to the point where people start believing that a change will never come. It always does though. Sometimes sooner, sometimes later. But either way, it comes.

At this stage only a fool would write off the Democrats, just as a fool would write off the PTP. Both sides have significant support. Will come down to what sort of a job Abhisit does, now that he doesn't have the distraction of insugents burning down the capital. It's his time to shine. The side of Thailand that isn't red prays he does just that.

[way2muchcoffee]

At this stage only a fool would write off the Democrats, just as a fool would write off the PTP. Both sides have significant support. Will come down to what sort of a job Abhisit does, now that he doesn't have the distraction of insugents burning down the capital. It's his time to shine. The side of Thailand that isn't red prays he does just that.

Let's just hope Abhisit has the power to push the dinosaurs in the Democrat party to support policies and law of real merit for the benefit of all Thais. He has done a decent job with this so far but he needs to do much more, and it needs to be very visible.

[kissdani]

At this stage only a fool would write off the Democrats, just as a fool would write off the PTP. Both sides have significant support. Will come down to what sort of a job Abhisit does, now that he doesn't have the distraction of insugents burning down the capital. It's his time to shine. The side of Thailand that isn't red prays he does just that.

Let's just hope Abhisit has the power to push the dinosaurs in the Democrat party to support policies and law of real merit for the benefit of all Thais. He has done a decent job with this so far but he needs to do much more, and it needs to be very visible.

There is no hope. During the last few month we could see how good he can work together with Suthep or what kind of dinosaurs you have in mind? Does he have any fresh and modern people in the cabinet?

Decent job? What makes you think that? Remember the two bloody month? The live fire killing zone? Any investigation results who killed all the people? What happened to the idea to buy the the Thaicom satellite? Any progress in the plan to hunt Thaksin with Interpol?

[rixalex]

Decent job? What makes you think that? Remember the two bloody month?

Everyone remembers it. Not everyone agrees on who was responsible.

It's clear where you (and the reds) lay all the blame.

[kissdani]

Decent job? What makes you think that? Remember the two bloody month?

Everyone remembers it. Not everyone agrees on who was responsible.

It's clear where you (and the reds) lay all the blame.

Who is responsible? Did i blame anyone? Do you saw also my question to that bloody months: "Any investigation results who killed all the people? "

And please don't take my sentences out of context and stop that silly 'you are a red shirt' argument.

[march]

I wonder what will happen at the end of next year when there is still no reconciliation?

Will Abhisit find some way to not have an election because there is still work to be done

or if any party wins except that backed by the army, will there be another coup?

I dont believe there will an election, I believe that elections will be called but will never take place because the army will find reason to stage a coup. Democrats cannot win an open election and they know it and they cannot allow the reds in. Letting the reds in and then using the courts and the military to remove them would just be a tad too much for decent people. The reds will not need to buy votes, pictures of dead protesters will ensure their votes. Reconciliation - not coming to a place near you soon. Nobody wants it. It would be nice if it happened but the army need to concede ground and the reds have to forget revenge... wont happen

I think there will be an election. I think candidates on both sides will be murdered, with more Dems getting killed. I think PTP will be able to campaign in the south but the Dems will be prevented from campaigning in the North and Northeast. The PTP will commit massive electoral fraud while the Dems will be guilty of minor violations. The elections will go ahead, but will be tainted.

It will be a very close contest, but the current coalition will win the day. The reds will demonstrate and the PTP will cry foul because they will likely win a plurality and will feel cheated that they don't get to form government, even though they won't control the majority of the MPs. The PTP will be an obstructionist opposition party.

If current coalition partners realign with the PTP giving them control of government the PAD will come out of the closet and demonstrate over the unfair voting practices in the North and Northeast. In this case the Dems will act like a proper opposition party and form a shadow government and respect the vote. Thet will be willing to work with the PTP (as an opposition member) and will not try to obstruct policies that are good for the country.

All of this assumes that the Dems are not dissolved before the elections and that the current constitution will be in place without amendment. Constitutional changes could be made that gets the Dems off the hook and sees the banned TRT and PPP candidates' eligibility reinstated.

A quite thoughtful post, way2muchcoffee. Covers, in a very rational manner, several plausible outcome to the various scenarios.

It's also a vast improvement over the rantings of your predecessor which were also addressed, very competently I might add, by rixalex.

It's interesting to indulge in speculation from time to time, and when it's as plausible as what you've written a worthwhile read, but what I've learned over the years here is that the possibilities are endless and the variety of real outcomes is always staggering.

The way I see it is that it is 18 months until the elections and that is a long time (in Thai years) before the voting begins.

What can happen between now and January 2012 can't even be imagined properly today.

At that time everyone between Chuwit and Bird McIntyre could end up dominating the political arena as the newly-elected-to-be PM by parliamentary vote.

I wish I had 50 baht for every bizarre and unpredicted real outcome of an event that's happened over the past years. I could retire.

[rixalex]

Decent job? What makes you think that? Remember the two bloody month?

Everyone remembers it. Not everyone agrees on who was responsible.

It's clear where you (and the reds) lay all the blame.

Who is responsible? Did i blame anyone?

Yes. Please spare us the silly word games. W2MC stated that Abhisit had done a decent job to date, and you countered with "what makes you think that? remember the two bloody month?". The meaning is obvious.

And please don't take my sentences out of context and stop that silly 'you are a red shirt' argument.

It's not an argument. It's a fact. The only thing silly is your denial. Anyone would think that being a red shirt was something to be ashamed of?!

[jdinasia]

Good choice not to rush elections now. There could have been early elections, but y'all know what happened when that concession was offered. Next ...

Jingthing is spot on.

there was never going to be early elections, I refer you to my post above.

Did you guys honestly believe that?

I don't know what is more embarrassing, Thais buying the propaganda or westerners buying it

Hmmm Did I believe that early elections would happen? No

Why? Certainly nothing to do with the government. They would have kept the promise they made. Thaksin, however, could not afford to have elections after October when the new Army chief is chosen.

I do know which is more embarassing

[blaze]

Thaksin, however, could not afford to have elections after October when the new Army chief is chosen.

Why not? That sounds like the kind of reasoning the reds were using- that the right to govern is not determined by election results- but rather the whim of the army.

Edited July 6, 2010 by blaze