Thai By-Election Sunday A Key Test For Rival Camps

[george]

Update:

Election Commission: Unofficial by-election result shows Democrat Panich wins 96,480 votes while Korkaew of Puea Thai gets 81,776 votes

-- MCOT 2010-07-25

[Cuchulainn]

Ha ha. No one wants terrorist scum in a government.

[rubl]

Update:

Election Commission: Unofficial by-election result shows Democrat Panich wins 96,480 votes while Korkaew of Puea Thai gets 81,776 votes

-- MCOT 2010-07-25

That's about 18% more votes for DEM than for PTP. Last time the DEMs had about 13% more votes. Still waiting for totals of the others.

[473geo]

Ha ha. No one wants terrorist scum in a government.

81,766

[somo]

Ha ha. No one wants terrorist scum in a government.

Why Ha ha?

Looks like 45.87% do want what you call terrorist scum to take power and that is from a Bangkok constituency!! Try seeing what the whole country wants but no doubt there won't be a general election soon. Too risky foor an uneleced elite?

[rubl]

Ha ha. No one wants terrorist scum in a government.

Why Ha ha?

Looks like 45.87% do want what you call terrorist scum to take power and that is from a Bangkok constituency!! Try seeing what the whole country wants but no doubt there won't be a general election soon. Too risky foor an uneleced elite?

This time the DEM's candidate got 50% of cast votes, PTP candidate 42%. Last time (three, four years ago?) is was DEM 45, PTP 42. This suggests that most reds/UDD stick to their party, others may have shifted to DEMs.

The deeper meaning of all this? Sorry, the batteries of my crystal ball need to be replaced first

[philw]

Ha ha. No one wants terrorist scum in a government.

Why Ha ha?

Looks like 45.87% do want what you call terrorist scum to take power and that is from a Bangkok constituency!! Try seeing what the whole country wants but no doubt there won't be a general election soon. Too risky foor an uneleced elite?

You are right !

[rubl]

Ha ha. No one wants terrorist scum in a government.

Why Ha ha?

Looks like 45.87% do want what you call terrorist scum to take power and that is from a Bangkok constituency!! Try seeing what the whole country wants but no doubt there won't be a general election soon. Too risky foor an uneleced elite?

You are right !

You are wrong! PTP got 42% out of 191598 who cast a vote, DEMs 50%. Voter turnup 50% or 191598 out of 386660. I guess most couldn't be bothered. Relevance to the rest of the country? Probably very limited, apart from the bomb attack on Ratchadamri. I will not speculate, read too many (wild) guesses, speculations, dubious accusations already.

There will not be a general election soon because no candidate in his right mind would dare to enter and start campaigning in the opposition's territory (red or yellow, PTP or DEMs).

[gregb]

Latest numbers I saw on tele wrere:

Dems 96k +

PT 81k +

about a 10% difference

I see the red supporters who were saying how PTP would win are now saying a loss is good news for them, spin, spin, spin.

Actually it is only about an 8% difference, and that assumes there were absolutely 0 null votes or invalid votes case.

Interestingly, the previous election resulted in about a 6% margin of victory for the Democratic candidate. So what we can say here is that all the rioting from the UDD made statistically *NO* difference on people's opinions.

This is not surprising to me. I have stated all along, there are *NO* neutral voters remaining. Whatever people's opinions are now, is the way they will remain for the immediate future. Only a substantial number of new, young voters a decade from now who were not influenced by the Thaksin regime may have an effect. Until then, there is no chance of reconcilliation unless the reds denounce Thaksin. It is this and only this which is preventing most people on the anti red side from joining with the reds to support their legitimate greivances.

Unless and until the reds denounce the traitorous Montenegran demagogue, nothing will change. People's minds are completely hardened. These election results prove it. If riots and attempting to burn an entire city to the ground didn't significantly change people's opinions, nothing will.

It is a decade long crack down or civil war for Thailand unless the reds denounce Thaksin. Best we all learn to accept this.

That is what we should be taking away from today's vote.

[ThaksinKharma]

I doubt if the PT leaders are surprised at losing

They sure were singing a different tune 48 hours ago...

Pheu Thai Claims Sure By-election Win

The opposition Pheu Thai Party is confident its detained candidate will win the Sunday by-election. If elected, he will be the first to become an MP while being in prison.

Red-shirt core leader Jatuporn Prompan believes Korkaew will make history by becoming the first to win a House election while being imprisoned.

Many senior party members, including outspoken MP Chalerm Yoobamrung, are set to take to the stage to deliver their campaign speeches in favor of Korkaew.

TAN - July 23, 2010

http://www.thailandoutlook.tv/tan/ViewData.aspx?DataID=1032599

Sorry Jatuporn and Chalerm.... you losers lose, again

Unofficial results: Panich wins by-election

Democrat Party candidate Panich Vikitsreth won the by-election in Bangkok's Constituency 6 Sunday.

Narathip Phattarawimol, the director of Klong Samwa district, announced at 7:30 pm that Panich got 96,480 votes, beating Pheu Thai Party candidate Kokaew Pikultong, who got 81,776 votes.

Narathip, the election chief for Constituency 6, said 191,598 of 386,660 eligible voters or 49.55 per cent exercised their voting right.

The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/Unofficial-results-Panich-wins-by-election-30134542.html

[ThaksinKharma]

I see the red supporters who were saying how PTP would win are now saying a loss is good news for them, spin, spin, spin.

The spinning on this thread reflects that. The reds certainly expected to win this vote. All the reds pre-election reports reflected this. Now, with losing it will be as you say, spin the loss as best as they can.

[philw]

Latest numbers I saw on tele wrere:

Dems 96k +

PT 81k +

about a 10% difference

I see the red supporters who were saying how PTP would win are now saying a loss is good news for them, spin, spin, spin.

Actually it is only about an 8% difference, and that assumes there were absolutely 0 null votes or invalid votes case.

Interestingly, the previous election resulted in about a 6% margin of victory for the Democratic candidate. So what we can say here is that all the rioting from the UDD made statistically *NO* difference on people's opinions.

This is not surprising to me. I have stated all along, there are *NO* neutral voters remaining. Whatever people's opinions are now, is the way they will remain for the immediate future. Only a substantial number of new, young voters a decade from now who were not influenced by the Thaksin regime may have an effect. Until then, there is no chance of reconcilliation unless the reds denounce Thaksin. It is this and only this which is preventing most people on the anti red side from joining with the reds to support their legitimate greivances.

Unless and until the reds denounce the traitorous Montenegran demagogue, nothing will change. People's minds are completely hardened. These election results prove it. If riots and attempting to burn an entire city to the ground didn't significantly change people's opinions, nothing will.

It is a decade long crack down or civil war for Thailand unless the reds denounce Thaksin. Best we all learn to accept this.

That is what we should be taking away from today's vote.

I think you are correct.

It does not look good any more, except that Thai people have a real skill of getting it right at the last minute.

Whatever happens, the show will go on.

[rubl]

Latest numbers I saw on tele wrere:

Dems 96k +

PT 81k +

about a 10% difference

I see the red supporters who were saying how PTP would win are now saying a loss is good news for them, spin, spin, spin.

Actually it is only about an 8% difference, and that assumes there were absolutely 0 null votes or invalid votes case.

Interestingly, the previous election resulted in about a 6% margin of victory for the Democratic candidate. So what we can say here is that all the rioting from the UDD made statistically *NO* difference on people's opinions.

This is not surprising to me. I have stated all along, there are *NO* neutral voters remaining. Whatever people's opinions are now, is the way they will remain for the immediate future. Only a substantial number of new, young voters a decade from now who were not influenced by the Thaksin regime may have an effect. Until then, there is no chance of reconcilliation unless the reds denounce Thaksin. It is this and only this which is preventing most people on the anti red side from joining with the reds to support their legitimate greivances.

Unless and until the reds denounce the traitorous Montenegran demagogue, nothing will change. People's minds are completely hardened. These election results prove it. If riots and attempting to burn an entire city to the ground didn't significantly change people's opinions, nothing will.

It is a decade long crack down or civil war for Thailand unless the reds denounce Thaksin. Best we all learn to accept this.

That is what we should be taking away from today's vote.

With only 10 fingers some people cannot count. Please pay attention:

PT 81776, DEM 96480, difference 14704. This is almost 17.99999%

[webfact]

Democrat wins Bangkok’s Constituency 6 by-election

BANGKOK (NNT) -- The contender from the ruling Democrat Party has won the 25 July by-election in Bangkok’s Constituency 6 gaining 14,704 votes higher than his archrival from the opposition Pheu Thai Party.

According to an unofficial election result, Mr Panich Vikitsreth from the Democrat Party won 96,480 votes while Mr Korkaew Pikulthong from the Pheu Thai Party received 81,776 votes. Four other candidates in the by-election shared only small amount of votes.

The election saw a voter turnout of 49.55% with 191,598 people out of the 386,660 eligible voters casting their ballots. Valid ballots totaled 180,432 or 94.1% while 1.53% or 2,931 ballots were void. Abstention accounted for 4.3% or 8,235 ballots.

Reports said Mr Panich won Mr Korkaew in three out of the four districts in Constituency 6 scoring 28,218: 21,614 in Bueng Kum, 26,171: 22,472 in Nong Chok, 14,699: 23,418 in Khan Na Yao, and 27,392: 23,418 in Khlong Sam Wa, respectively.

-- NNT 2010-07-25

[gregb]

Latest numbers I saw on tele wrere:

Dems 96k +

PT 81k +

about a 10% difference

I see the red supporters who were saying how PTP would win are now saying a loss is good news for them, spin, spin, spin.

Actually it is only about an 8% difference, and that assumes there were absolutely 0 null votes or invalid votes case.

Interestingly, the previous election resulted in about a 6% margin of victory for the Democratic candidate. So what we can say here is that all the rioting from the UDD made statistically *NO* difference on people's opinions.

This is not surprising to me. I have stated all along, there are *NO* neutral voters remaining. Whatever people's opinions are now, is the way they will remain for the immediate future. Only a substantial number of new, young voters a decade from now who were not influenced by the Thaksin regime may have an effect. Until then, there is no chance of reconcilliation unless the reds denounce Thaksin. It is this and only this which is preventing most people on the anti red side from joining with the reds to support their legitimate greivances.

Unless and until the reds denounce the traitorous Montenegran demagogue, nothing will change. People's minds are completely hardened. These election results prove it. If riots and attempting to burn an entire city to the ground didn't significantly change people's opinions, nothing will.

It is a decade long crack down or civil war for Thailand unless the reds denounce Thaksin. Best we all learn to accept this.

That is what we should be taking away from today's vote.

With only 10 fingers some people cannot count. Please pay attention:

PT 81776, DEM 96480, difference 14704. This is almost 17.99999%

Are you serious? You honestly think that is the way percentages are calculated???

Try PT = 81,776/(81,776 + 96480) = 46%

Democrat = 96,480/(81,776 + 96480) = 54%

And again, the real denominator is actually higher because of null votes, invalid votes, and votes for minority candidates.

And even if we are to accept your definition of percentage, then the 6% difference before would be much higher. Mathematically, my argument will stand no matter how you try and calculate. Numbers don't lie.

Edited July 25, 2010 by gregb

[philw]

I see the red supporters who were saying how PTP would win are now saying a loss is good news for them, spin, spin, spin.

The spinning on this thread reflects that. The reds certainly expected to win this vote. All the reds pre-election reports reflected this. Now, with losing it will be as you say, spin the loss as best as they can.

total nonsense.

name your source that PTP expected to win.

[rubl]

I see the red supporters who were saying how PTP would win are now saying a loss is good news for them, spin, spin, spin.

The spinning on this thread reflects that. The reds certainly expected to win this vote. All the reds pre-election reports reflected this. Now, with losing it will be as you say, spin the loss as best as they can.

total nonsense.

name your source that PTP expected to win.

See link at reply #42

[rubl]

Actually it is only about an 8% difference, and that assumes there were absolutely 0 null votes or invalid votes case.

Interestingly, the previous election resulted in about a 6% margin of victory for the Democratic candidate. So what we can say here is that all the rioting from the UDD made statistically *NO* difference on people's opinions.

This is not surprising to me. I have stated all along, there are *NO* neutral voters remaining. Whatever people's opinions are now, is the way they will remain for the immediate future. Only a substantial number of new, young voters a decade from now who were not influenced by the Thaksin regime may have an effect. Until then, there is no chance of reconcilliation unless the reds denounce Thaksin. It is this and only this which is preventing most people on the anti red side from joining with the reds to support their legitimate greivances.

Unless and until the reds denounce the traitorous Montenegran demagogue, nothing will change. People's minds are completely hardened. These election results prove it. If riots and attempting to burn an entire city to the ground didn't significantly change people's opinions, nothing will.

It is a decade long crack down or civil war for Thailand unless the reds denounce Thaksin. Best we all learn to accept this.

That is what we should be taking away from today's vote.

With only 10 fingers some people cannot count. Please pay attention:

PT 81776, DEM 96480, difference 14704. This is almost 17.99999%

Are you serious? You honestly think that is the way percentages are calculated???

Try PT = 81,776/(81,776 + 96480) = 46%

Democrat = 96,480/(81,776 + 96480) = 54%

And again, the real denominator is actually higher because of null votes, invalid votes, and votes for minority candidates.

And even if we are to accept your definition of percentage, then the 6% difference before would be much higher. Mathematically, my argument will stand no matter how you try and calculate. Numbers don't lie.

I studied mathematics, I know numbers can be made to do trick or stand on edge.

Try: eligable votes 3865660, cast votes 191598, PT 81776, DEM 96480

% of total eligable: DEM 24.95, PT 21.15

% of votes cast: DEM 50.35, PT 42.68

absolut numbers: DEM 18% more votes than PT

I guess this means we are both right. Note percentages for previous election were in % of votes cast (DEM 45, PT 42).

[gregb]

Note percentages for previous election were in % of votes cast (DEM 45, PT 42).

Interesting. I had different numbers for the results of the previous elections. I don't have a primary source for this information. I copied them from someone else.

Do you have a source for the previous election results?

I ask because if what you are saying is true, then 5% would indicate a statistically significant shift, although small, and I would have to withdraw my previous comment.

At 5% I would have to conclude that the red faction is losing some of their support. At 2% I would not.

Edited July 25, 2010 by gregb

[ThaksinKharma]

The spinning on this thread reflects that. The reds certainly expected to win this vote. All the reds pre-election reports reflected this. Now, with losing it will be as you say, spin the loss as best as they can.

total nonsense.

name your source that PTP expected to win.

See link at reply #42

Thanks, apparently he's not been following the news.

More "anti-nonsense" from even further back, 5 days ago, even after early indications were they might lose today, they were confident of a win.

Pheu Thai unfazed by public opinion on by-election

The opposition Pheu Thai Party has shrugged off the recent poll, which indicated higher popularity of the Democrat Party’s candidate during the advance voting of the Bangkok by-election last weekend.

Mr Anudit Nakornthap, Pheu Thai MP for Bangkok, responded to the latest poll conducted by Suan Dusit Rajabhat University, claiming that it was only an academic survey and the collected data was not necessarily reliable. He believed that the poll results would not have any effect on the actual voting.

NNT - July 20, 2010

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255307200042

[rubl]

Note percentages for previous election were in % of votes cast (DEM 45, PT 42).

Interesting. I had different numbers for the results of the previous elections. I don't have a primary source for this information. I copied them from someone else.

Do you have a source for the previous election results?

I ask because if what you are saying is true, then 5% would indicate a statistically significant shift, although small, and I would have to withdraw my previous comment.

At 5% I would have to conclude that the red faction is losing some of their support. At 2% I would not.

I also got the 45/42 from some news site, probably also to be found here. Note the Elect. Comm. gives official results, probably on their website (in Thai). This link http://us.asiancorrespondent.com/bangkok-pundit-blog/upcoming-bangkok-by-election.htm gives interesting numbers, but unreadable / difficult to interpret. It does have a link to a zipfile.

[otherstuff1957]

I am reminded of a a quote from Mark Twain: 'There are lies, there are dam_n lies and then there are statistics!". However, I think that there is little for either the Government or the Reds to cheer about in this election. Despite all of the hype and arguments about this election, less than 1/2 of the registered voters bothered to vote! Possibly the most significant result is that over 1/2 the voters said "I don't care who runs the country" or "I don't like any of the politicians".

As for the Democrats, yes, they won, but only by 8% of the the voters or 4% of the registered voters. After the Red shenanigans of last May, they probably expected a better showing from Bangkok voters. After all, this is a big part of their core constituency.

The PT doesn't have much to be cheerful about either. If these results are anything to go by, they will probably lose some seats in the next election. They are just barely the biggest party & can't afford to lose any more influence than they already have.

More than anything else, the results show that Thailand is still divided and reconciliation is still a long way off.

[THAILIBAN]

I am reminded of a a quote from Mark Twain: 'There are lies, there are dam_n lies and then there are statistics!". However, I think that there is little for either the Government or the Reds to cheer about in this election. Despite all of the hype and arguments about this election, less than 1/2 of the registered voters bothered to vote! Possibly the most significant result is that over 1/2 the voters said "I don't care who runs the country" or "I don't like any of the politicians".

As for the Democrats, yes, they won, but only by 8% of the the voters or 4% of the registered voters. After the Red shenanigans of last May, they probably expected a better showing from Bangkok voters. After all, this is a big part of their core constituency.

The PT doesn't have much to be cheerful about either. If these results are anything to go by, they will probably lose some seats in the next election. They are just barely the biggest party & can't afford to lose any more influence than they already have.

More than anything else, the results show that Thailand is still divided and reconciliation is still a long way off.

I agree with your statements.

though, I am sure, if the election would have been held at a regular weekend and not an extended one, the Democrat win would have been clearer. Many BKK residents are out of town at this moment...... and I am quite sure that many of those "better-off" - citizens would have been voting for the DEM candidate.

[webfact]

topic continues:

Bangkok bomb spoils Panich win

//CLOSED//