Bangkok Bomb Spoils Panich Win

[webfact]

BY ELECTION

Bomb spoils Panich win

By The Nation

Democrat Party candidate Panich Vikitsreth beat the Opposition Pheu Thai Party candidate Korkaew Pikulthong by a comfortable margin yesterday in the politically significant and emotionally-charged by-election in Bangkok's Constituency 6.

The victory was decried by the losers as being caused by state repression.

The Election Commission's unofficial results gave Panich 96,480 votes against Korkaew's 81,776. Four candidates from smaller parties received less than 1,000 votes each.

The voter turn-out was 191,598 or 49.5 per cent of the total, much lower than the general election on December 23, 2007 when the voter turn-out was 72.7 per cent or 262,829. Valid ballots totalled 180,432 or 94.1 per cent and invalid ballots 2,931 or 1.5 per cent, with "no votes" totalling 8,235 or 4.3 per cent.

The first parliamentary election since the bloody political turbulence in April and May began bitterly and ended likewise. The Pheu Thai Party attributed the defeat to the government's retaining the emergency decree and other "unfair" advantages of its opponents.

Pheu Thai Party Bangkok MP Wicharn Meenchainant said the poll atmosphere was not normal, claiming that on Friday and Saturday a group of people dressed like men in uniform followed the Pheu Thai Party team to check on what they were doing. "Many voters" also found that people used their voting right in the advance election. There were claims of vote buying in Bueng Kum district.

Wicharn said FM 103, the Public Relations Department radio station, also launched a campaign against the Pheu Thai in a northeastern dialect, telling listeners not to vote for the people who set the country on fire.

Wicharn also alleged Channel 11, under the Public Relations Department, campaigned against the Pheu Thai Party candidate, saying even if Korkaew was elected, he would not be able to perform his MP duties because he was facing terrorism charges.

The Opposition MP also blamed the Election Commission (EC) for its "failure" to advertise for voters to exercise their voting right, as voter turn-out was less than 50 per cent of eligible voters. He disapproved of the EC scheduling the by-election on a long weekend when many Bangkok residents left the capital for the provinces.

Despite the defeat, the MP added the Opposition party felt satisfied with the election results, which showed that the ruling party did not lead by a big margin.

The Democrats, on the other hand, hailed the victory as clean and beyond expectations. After the results became clear, members of the ruling party, including Panich, paid respect to Mae Phra Thoranee, the Goddess of Earth, at the Democrat Party headquarters. Many Democrat Party MPs congratulated Panich, who was accompanied by his happy wife and children.

Thepthai Senpong, spokesman for the Democrat Party leader, rang Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who was spending a long weekend with his family on Koh Samet, to inform him of the results. Abhisit thanked residents of Constituency 6 for putting their trust in its party candidate and the government. The PM vowed the government and Panich would work hard in Parliament and push for the success of government policies.

Panich said the election victory yesterday did not belong to him but the Democrat Party and this victory would help protect the country's democracy. He believed the Democrat Party won because the people wanted to see national reconciliation.

Asked why he did not win by a bigger margin, Panich said the party felt satisfied with the results, as many pollsters had earlier predicted that he would win only 4 to 5 per cent more than his rival.

An exit survey by Dusit Poll showed a rather accurate result. It had Panich win by slightly more than 10 per cent in the by-election in Klong Samwa, Kannayao, Bueng Kum, and Nong Jok districts.

Election Commissioner Prapan Naikowit said the EC received one electoral complaint last week and would endorse the election result within 30 days. The EC expected a vote turn-out of 60 per cent, which turned out to be ambitious.

About 3,000 police were deployed to keep security at polling stations since Saturday night. EC chairman Apichart Sukhag-ghanond said it did not request security forces from the Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation - only police to watch poll booths. He said the poll went smoothly without problems and if Korkaew won, it would have been up to Parliament to decide if he could be an MP.

-- The Nation 2010-07-26

[webfact]

BY-ELECTION

Pheu Thai Party concedes defeat

By The Nation

Pheu Thai Party has conceded defeat in the by-election of the Constituency 6 after seeing its candidate lost more than 10,000 votes when votes counting nearly finished.

At 6.15pm, Pheu Thai Party's Kokaew Pikulthong, detained in prison on terrorism charge, got 79,776 while Democrat party's candidate Panich Vikitsetr got 92,041 as the counting reached 96 per cent.

Wicharn Meenachaiyanun, a Pheu Thai MP of the Constituency 6, announced the accepting of the defeat on stage. Accompanying him was Jatuporn Prompan, also Pheu Thai MP, who was charged of terrorism charge for leading red shirts protests at Rajprasong area. He was not arrested because he has parliamentary immunity. After the immunity ended, he surrendered to police and was freed on bail.

Kokaew has been arrested on the same charge and Pheu Thai Party decided to field him as candidate for the July 25 by-election.

-- The Nation 2010-07-26

[mazeltov]

Asked why he did not win by a bigger margin, Panich said the party felt satisfied with the results, as many pollsters had earlier predicted that he would win only 4 to 5 per cent more than his rival.

Just for the record, anyone knew some of these prediction by those many pollsters? My weak memory says me that it was quite the opposite, PTP did better as predicted.

the voter turn-out is surprising low. how comes that?

more numbers:

Reports said Mr Panich won Mr Korkaew in three out of the four districts in Constituency 6 scoring

28,218: 21,614 in Bueng Kum,

26,171: 22,472 in Nong Chok,

14,699: 23,418 in Khan Na Yao, and

27,392: 23,418 in Khlong Sam Wa, respectively.

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255307250032

[otherstuff1957]

the voter turn-out is surprising low. how comes that?

Most likely because of the long holiday weekend. However, it might also be a sign that many people are simply fed up with politics and are tired of voting for the 'lesser of two evils'.

[jayjay0]

Just like the red shirts to blame the emergency decree as they were holding there illegal meetings with out interference. If they would show some remorse for any of there atrocities they might get a little more support.

[antony77]

The election results were a triumph of democracy over terrorism.

[rubl]

Asked why he did not win by a bigger margin, Panich said the party felt satisfied with the results, as many pollsters had earlier predicted that he would win only 4 to 5 per cent more than his rival.

Just for the record, anyone knew some of these prediction by those many pollsters? My weak memory says me that it was quite the opposite, PTP did better as predicted.

the voter turn-out is surprising low. how comes that?

more numbers:

Reports said Mr Panich won Mr Korkaew in three out of the four districts in Constituency 6 scoring

28,218: 21,614 in Bueng Kum,

26,171: 22,472 in Nong Chok,

14,699: 23,418 in Khan Na Yao, and

27,392: 23,418 in Khlong Sam Wa, respectively.

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255307250032

Your weak memory might be refreshed by looking up all those webpages you normally like to quote. Do your own research.

[SomTumTiger]

Bomb spoils the Dem's victory - smells like the work of our favorite fugitive...

[jackdawson]

didn't spoil it for me

[mazeltov]

Asked why he did not win by a bigger margin, Panich said the party felt satisfied with the results, as many pollsters had earlier predicted that he would win only 4 to 5 per cent more than his rival.

Just for the record, anyone knew some of these prediction by those many pollsters? My weak memory says me that it was quite the opposite, PTP did better as predicted.

Your weak memory might be refreshed by looking up all those webpages you normally like to quote. Do your own research.

You mean nobody here at this board could me give an answer about what polls Panich is talking?

I will wait and see, i am optimistic. The other 'experts' are maybe still sleeping today.

Anyway thanks for your advice. Much appreciated.

[animatic]

the voter turn-out is surprising low. how comes that?

Most likely because of the long holiday weekend. However, it might also be a sign that many people are simply fed up with politics and are tired of voting for the 'lesser of two evils'.

All the reasons for predicted and actual low turn out were covered in depth

and ad nauseum for the last week or more in most journals and open discussions.

Buddhist holliday, long weekend, travel back home,

citizen burn out with the political fighting ,

and a sense of why bother they will all screw us in the end.

But mostly weekend travel.

I think many gave up politicians for lent. A small sacrifice.

[rubl]

the voter turn-out is surprising low. how comes that?

Most likely because of the long holiday weekend. However, it might also be a sign that many people are simply fed up with politics and are tired of voting for the 'lesser of two evils'.

All the reasons for predicted and actual low turn out were covered in depth and ad nauseum for the last week or more in most journals and open discussions.

Buddhist holliday, long weekend, travel back home,

citizen burn out with the political fighting ,

and a sense of why bother they will all screw us in the end.

But mostly weekend travel.

I think many gave up politicians for lent. A small sacrifice.

Lent means three months no alcohol for some. A bigger sacrifice than ignoring politics, methinks old chap.

Still interesting to know what all those on holiday would have voted. Lots who went on holiday may not have been legal voters for that constituency.

Eh, eh, you're right, ad nauseam

Edited July 26, 2010 by rubl

[ThaksinKharma]

PTP did better as predicted.

Not according to PTP itself, who somehow had a sure by-election win turn into a sure by-election loss

Pheu Thai Claims Sure By-election Win

The opposition Pheu Thai Party is confident its detained candidate will win the Sunday by-election. If elected, he will be the first to become an MP while being in prison.

Red-shirt core leader Jatuporn Prompan believes Korkaew will make history by becoming the first to win a House election while being imprisoned.

Many senior party members, including outspoken MP Chalerm Yoobamrung, are set to take to the stage to deliver their campaign speeches in favor of Korkaew.

TAN - July 23, 2010

http://www.thailandoutlook.tv/tan/ViewData.aspx?DataID=1032599

[asiawatcher]

I would love a world without politics or religion - wishful thinking.

[rubl]

I would love a world without politics or religion - wishful thinking.

Keep dreaming. With almost 7 billion people on this planet organization is necessary. Politics, religion, NGO's, clubs, etc. all offer frameworks to help people survive. IMHO that is

[mazeltov]

Not according to PTP itself, who somehow had a sure by-election win turn into a sure by-election loss

Pheu Thai Claims Sure By-election Win

The opposition Pheu Thai Party is confident its detained candidate will win the Sunday by-election. If elected, he will be the first to become an MP while being in prison.

Red-shirt core leader Jatuporn Prompan believes Korkaew will make history by becoming the first to win a House election while being imprisoned.

Many senior party members, including outspoken MP Chalerm Yoobamrung, are set to take to the stage to deliver their campaign speeches in favor of Korkaew.

TAN - July 23, 2010

http://www.thailandoutlook.tv/tan/ViewData.aspx?DataID=1032599

Dude, who cares what PTP boys said about their own motivation to win in campaign speeches. No doubt they came up with some confidence and positive thinking to win.

I am talking about earlier poll results, polls conducted by independent sources. the ones Panich is talking about:

Asked why he did not win by a bigger margin, Panich said the party felt satisfied with the results, as many pollsters had earlier predicted that he would win only 4 to 5 per cent more than his rival.

like the one below. funny, why didn't you post that one? normally you aren't shy with reposts and self quotes. 555

Pheu Thai unfazed by public opinion on by-election

The opposition Pheu Thai Party has shrugged off the recent poll, which indicated higher popularity of the Democrat Party’s candidate during the advance voting of the Bangkok by-election last weekend.

Mr Anudit Nakornthap, Pheu Thai MP for Bangkok, responded to the latest poll conducted by Suan Dusit Rajabhat University, claiming that it was only an academic survey and the collected data was not necessarily reliable. He believed that the poll results would not have any effect on the actual voting.

51.05% of the respondents backed Mr Panich Vikitsreth of the Democrat Party while 34.30% supported Mr Korkaew Pikulthong of the Pheu Thai Party.

The other five candidates received less than 1% altogether.

The survey was conducted among eligible voters in Bangkok's Constituency 6 before and after the advance voting on 17-18 July. The official ballot casting will take place on 25 July.

NNT - July 20, 2010

http://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news.php?id=255307200042

Compare that with the final unofficial results it looks different from that and better for the PTP.

Panich with 96,480 votes = 50.36%

Korkaew with 81,776 votes =42.68%

No vote: 8235 = 4.29%

Invalid votes 2931 = 1.53%

all other candidates 2176 votes = 1.14%

The difference between Korkaew and Panich is only 7.68%. But the article mentioned only the percentage for valid/invalide votes and no.votes. nothing about how did the candidates in percent. An exit poll got mentioned instead.

An exit survey by Dusit Poll showed a rather accurate result. It had Panich win by slightly more than 10 per cent in the by-election ...

Thats funny.

The Election Commission's unofficial results:

yesterday early exit poll (rather accurate, according to The NATION):

last week' early poll (shrugged off by PTP)

[rubl]

Dear 'mazeltov', we had some posts already on numbers and data manipulation. Reading back, you are obfuscating with colourful graphs as reply to posters who replied to your comment "PTP did better as predicted" and "Just for the record, anyone knew some of these prediction by those many pollsters? My weak memory says me that it was quite the opposite, PTP did better as predicted."

There have been many predictions, statements, prognoses, all somewhat right, somewhat wrong. Nothing really surprising. PTP seemed confident, DEM's were in their eternal doubt phase as usual.

Now the question, what are you trying to say, or suggest?

[mazeltov]

Dear 'mazeltov', we had some posts already on numbers and data manipulation. Reading back, you are obfuscating with colourful graphs as reply to posters who replied to your comment "PTP did better as predicted" and "Just for the record, anyone knew some of these prediction by those many pollsters? My weak memory says me that it was quite the opposite, PTP did better as predicted."

There have been many predictions, statements, prognoses, all somewhat right, somewhat wrong. Nothing really surprising. PTP seemed confident, DEM's were in their eternal doubt phase as usual.

Now the question, what are you trying to say, or suggest?

And what? Wasn't your advice that i have to my own research? Data manipulation i saw in your 'mathematics', were the Dems, according to you, actually got 118%. funny was it.

Anyway, if you know some of these early predictions, predictions, statements, prognoses ... please post it. that was my question about.

Asked why he did not win by a bigger margin, Panich said the party felt satisfied with the results,

as many pollsters had earlier predicted that he would win only 4 to 5 per cent more than his rival.

[rubl]

And what? Wasn't your advice that i have to my own research? Data manipulation i saw in your 'mathematics', were the Dems, according to you, actually got 118%. funny was it.

<graphics deleted>

I said "absolut numbers: DEM 18% more votes than PT". Check it again:

()

[animatic]

Weak memories and weaker minds, back pedaling weakly

into a fall back position that matches their preconceived notions.

Welcome to TVF after another Red debacle. Instant replay just change the subtitles.

[chainarong]

The People have decided, appears not everyone was pleased with the result, I am afraid this will be a continuing practice , the question is, who in their right mind would vote for a team , associated with Thaskin, as some one said once, people are funny.

[mazeltov]

And what? Wasn't your advice that i have to my own research? Data manipulation i saw in your 'mathematics', were the Dems, according to you, actually got 118%. funny was it.

<graphics deleted>

I said "absolut numbers: DEM 18% more votes than PT". Check it again:

()

you mean when you set the number of votes for PTP: 81776 = 100%

then you can say that the number of votes for Dems: 96480 ≈ 118% (but it isn't 17.99999% more, its 17,98083%)

Anyway you are still wrong. Nobody who wants to be taken for reputable will analyse and compare election results this way.

✂----------------------------------------

The Democrats hailed the victory as clean and beyond expectations. After the results became clear,

members of the ruling party, including Panich, paid respect to Mae Phra Thoranee, the Goddess of Earth,

at the Democrat Party headquarters. Many Democrat Party MPs congratulated Panich, who was accompanied

by his happy wife and children.

[rubl]

And what? Wasn't your advice that i have to my own research? Data manipulation i saw in your 'mathematics', were the Dems, according to you, actually got 118%. funny was it.

<graphics deleted>

I said "absolut numbers: DEM 18% more votes than PT". Check it again:

()

you mean when you set the number of votes for PTP: 81776 = 100%

then you can say that the number of votes for Dems: 96480 ≈ 118% (but it isn't 17.99999% more, its 17,98083%)

Anyway you are still wrong. Nobody who wants to be taken for reputable will analyse and compare election results this way.

Some people are dense. I said "absolut numbers: DEM 18% more votes than PT". You interpret and suggest I mean, even being silly about non-significant digits. To call me wrong because of your interpretation of a clear, correct statement is ridiculous. In the reply referred to I gave also other comparitions more commonly used. If you have nothing constructive to contribute then don't start talking nonsense.

[canuckamuck]

It is a fascinating result that the party facing dissolution win's a narrow majority over a terrorist in prison.

I think a vote for a mangy street dog would have at least had some merit. The dog might have a chance to finish a term.

Edited July 26, 2010 by canuckamuck

[TAWP]

Asked why he did not win by a bigger margin, Panich said the party felt satisfied with the results, as many pollsters had earlier predicted that he would win only 4 to 5 per cent more than his rival.

Just for the record, anyone knew some of these prediction by those many pollsters? My weak memory says me that it was quite the opposite, PTP did better as predicted.

'Better'?

PTP candidate did worse than the last candidate fielded by the group.

And he did far worse than Jutaporn and other liers said they 'knew' he would be doing, i.e. he did not win...

[TAWP]

Not according to PTP itself, who somehow had a sure by-election win turn into a sure by-election loss

Dude, who cares what PTP boys said about their own motivation to win in campaign speeches. No doubt they came up with some confidence and positive thinking to win.

Atleast you got it partly right...who cares what the PTP boys say? Hopefully no-one soon...

[mazeltov]

Asked why he did not win by a bigger margin, Panich said the party felt satisfied with the results, as many pollsters had earlier predicted that he would win only 4 to 5 per cent more than his rival.

Just for the record, anyone knew some of these prediction by those many pollsters? My weak memory says me that it was quite the opposite, PTP did better as predicted.

'Better'?

PTP candidate did worse than the last candidate fielded by the group.

And he did far worse than Jutaporn and other liers said they 'knew' he would be doing, i.e. he did not win...

Source?

Did worse than which candidate?

Have you a link to some of these 'many pollsters'? Please post not what some PTP heads had declared in campaign speeches. here is quite understandable that they didn't say will will lose. The other dude got that already wrong.

I mean the prediction of some independent political observers. Surveys by opinion research institutes. I missed the polls that spoke of a small margin of only 4-5 per cent. but the real outcome is pretty close to that (Dems 50.4%; PTP 42.7%) I remember only polls that predicted a wider gap, like the exit poll by Suan Dusit Rajabhat University (Dems 52.8; PTP 40.9%) for example and of course the one that they did one week ago.(Dems 50,1% PTP 34,3%). The was also a survey conducted by Police Special Branch (Dems 60%; PTP 40%).

So if you know better and more than I and if you know pollsters that predicted a better and higher outcome for the PTP candidate than the final result or the once with that small margin of 3-4 per cent and so on, please post them. that was my question.

can you back up your claim or not (like so often and like the other usual suspects who post fact free fantasies).

[chantorn]

The bomb must be planted by the person/group that will benefits from it going off.

[ThaksinKharma]

Not according to PTP itself, who somehow had a sure by-election win turn into a sure by-election loss

Pheu Thai Claims Sure By-election Win

*reduced*

Thank you for showing that the Democrat Party candidate received the clear majority of the votes cast and won the election. It's appreciated.

[asiawatcher]

I am amazed at how close it actually was - at least for the time being the doubt the reds had any say in Thailand's progress (as opposed to future) is doubtful.