Drowsy Bangkok Breaks New Politics Party's Heart

[Buchholz]

Democrats Dominate City Polls Wins

The ruling Democrat Party snatched up 45 of the 61 Bangkok City Council seats in the Sunday's election.

The opposition Pheu Thai Party managed to win 15 while one went to an independent candidate.

The Democrats also won 210 of 256 district council seats while 39 were taken by Pheu Thai and the remaining seven by independent candidates.

Of 4.1 million eligible voters, some 1.7 million, or 41 percent, came out to cast ballots.

A total of 105,000, or 6.5 percent, of voters abstained while nearly 70,000, or four percent, of the cast ballots were declared invalid.

Pasicharoen district saw the largest voter turnout at 45.21 percent while Watthana district recorded the lowest figure at 35 percent.

Only one complaint on the district council election has been lodged so far.

The plaintiff argued the number of the counted ballots in Din Daeng district did not match the figure showed at the polling center.

Meanwhile, no complaint has been filed over the results of the Bangkok City Council election yet.

The Bangkok Election Commission has already forwarded preliminary vote counts to the central Election Commission for consideration and endorsement.

In response to the lower-than-expected voter turnout, the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration said it had tried its best to encourage Bangkok residents to exercise their voting rights in the polls.

The BMA has pledged to encourage more city residents to vote in future elections.

-- Tan Network 2010-08-30

[peted]

No more election please. Important position in Thai politics should be filled by appointment.

Samrit .. who do you think should be trusted to make the appointments and why do you think it would be better for Thailand?

IMHO most people would think this a very dangerous direction for Thailand as it would risk the creation (some would say continuation) of a country that is run for the benefits of a small group of elite in favour with the appointers.

Clearly Thailand belongs to all of the people of this great country and ALL should have a say in who runs it and how they run it. The problem is to find a way for voting across the country to be honest, open and well informed ... and I wish I knew the answer to that one!!!

[rogercw]

Point to ponder. Red-shirt media has been closed. The rest of the media is censored, officially or unofficially, by the Democratic government. Bangkok has historically been the stronghold of the Democrats and was recently under assault by the red-shirts.

Under these conditions the PTP showing was actually pretty good and shows that they will still be a force to reckon with in elections outside Bangkok and the Deep South.

[Buchholz]

It doesn't matter, red shirt apologist will soon be here to decry any loss as a victory, as red shirts are jailed, the country isn't free and so on.

It took a little while, but your call was absolutely correct.

Edited August 30, 2010 by Buchholz

[rogercw]

I may be in the minority on this board but there is a reason the PTP pushes for elections as soon as possible and the Democrats say wait, wait, wait.

It sure ain't because the Democrats think they would win.

Back home would you support a government that closes opposition media and censors what remains of the media and internet?

I do understand that Thaksin did pretty much the same when he was in power but that also was wrong under generally accepted democratic principles.

[DP25]

I may be in the minority on this board but there is a reason the PTP pushes for elections as soon as possible and the Democrats say wait, wait, wait.

Indeed, that is why the red shirts agreed to early elections in November and peacefully packed up their protest and returned home. Oh wait...

[whybother]

Point to ponder. Red-shirt media has been closed. The rest of the media is censored, officially or unofficially, by the Democratic government. Bangkok has historically been the stronghold of the Democrats and was recently under assault by the red-shirts.

Under these conditions the PTP showing was actually pretty good and shows that they will still be a force to reckon with in elections outside Bangkok and the Deep South.

There is plenty of media out there for the red-shirts to advertise their "policies" (unless their policies are to incite violence and to bring down the monarchy ofcourse).

How do you see that they are a force to be reckoned with when the lose support? They only won 20-25% of the seats. If they do that during the general election next year, they won't be anything, let alone a force.

[Cayenne]

There is plenty of media out there for the red-shirts to advertise their "policies" (unless their policies are to incite violence and to bring down the monarchy ofcourse).

That's the stumbling block to mainstream acceptance of the red shirts- they don't have any coherent "policies". One group wants to bring back Thaksin while another wants to bring down the monarchy. Is it any wonder that the so-called "moderate" red shirts have a hard time having their voices heard. And don't get me started on the PTP- they're reduced to adhoc policies now so they should be grateful that they've only lost a few zones in BKK in this election.

Oh, and I don't think Bangkok become a stronghold of the Democrats only until recently (before Apirak, when was the last time we had a Democrat governor?), probably as a reaction to Thaksin.

[Ulysses G.]

Democrats sweep 45 BKK Assembly seats: unofficial results

The Democrat Party Sunday swept 45 out of 61 seats of the Bangkok City Assembly, leaving 15 for the Pheu Thai and another for an independent candidate, according to unofficial results.

-- The Nation 2010-08-30

Sweep means to take them all, why can't the nation afford to hire some one who speaks the language?

Not always: "An overwhelming victory or success." http://www.answers.com/topic/sweep

[jayboy]

It doesn't matter, red shirt apologist will soon be here to decry any loss as a victory, as red shirts are jailed, the country isn't free and so on.

It took a little while, but your call was absolutely correct.

As someone who broadly sympathises with the Red cause the result seemed much as expected.Naturally there are those of all stripes who spin the significance, but the truth is no side - except the ridiculous New Politics Party - can complain about the result.Still the comment being mocked (about constraints on the NPT) undoubtedly has some relevance, difficult to say how much.Still I doubt whether many people, except a few like whybother, seriously believe the Bangkok position will be reflected in a General Election.

[whybother]

As someone who broadly sympathises with the Red cause the result seemed much as expected.Naturally there are those of all stripes who spin the significance, but the truth is no side - except the ridiculous New Politics Party - can complain about the result.Still the comment being mocked (about constraints on the NPT) undoubtedly has some relevance, difficult to say how much.Still I doubt whether many people, except a few like whybother, seriously believe the Bangkok position will be reflected in a General Election.

My comments above were in relation to the "Democrat strongholds" of Bangkok and the south.

IMO, for the next general election, the Democrats will perform better in most electorates and win a few more seats that the last election (but still not a majority). The PTP vote will be eroded by improved Democrat support in some areas, but particularly by the BJT in their "stronghold" areas. The PTP (PPP) didn't win the last election, and required support from the minority parties to from government. They will do worse in the next election, and currently do not have the support of most of the minor parties, which will probably continue, so the PTP will not be able to "win".

Overall, I expect the Democrats to form another coalition government. The spanner in the works is Newin's BJT.

Edited August 31, 2010 by whybother

[jayboy]

As someone who broadly sympathises with the Red cause the result seemed much as expected.Naturally there are those of all stripes who spin the significance, but the truth is no side - except the ridiculous New Politics Party - can complain about the result.Still the comment being mocked (about constraints on the NPT) undoubtedly has some relevance, difficult to say how much.Still I doubt whether many people, except a few like whybother, seriously believe the Bangkok position will be reflected in a General Election.

My comments above were in relation to the "Democrat strongholds" of Bangkok and the south.

IMO, for the next general election, the Democrats will perform better in most electorates and win a few more seats that the last election (but still not a majority). The PTP vote will be eroded by improved Democrat support in some areas, but particularly by the BJT in their "stronghold" areas. The PTP (PPP) didn't win the last election, and required support from the minority parties to from government. They will do worse in the next election, and currently do not have the support of most of the minor parties, which will probably continue, so the PTP will not be able to "win".

Overall, I expect the Democrats to form another coalition government. The spanner in the works is Newin's BJT.

Ok understood.Well let's see how the General Election turns out.My particular concern is that this a fair and transparent process.

If it doesn't embarrass you what I like about your position is that you don't claim omniscience and you correctly identify some wild cards.Politics in Thailand is as subject to volatility and chance as anywhere else.As Harold Macmillan once famously said when asked what was most likely to knock governments off course, "Events,dear boy,events".

[hammered]

As someone who broadly sympathises with the Red cause the result seemed much as expected.Naturally there are those of all stripes who spin the significance, but the truth is no side - except the ridiculous New Politics Party - can complain about the result.Still the comment being mocked (about constraints on the NPT) undoubtedly has some relevance, difficult to say how much.Still I doubt whether many people, except a few like whybother, seriously believe the Bangkok position will be reflected in a General Election.

My comments above were in relation to the "Democrat strongholds" of Bangkok and the south.

IMO, for the next general election, the Democrats will perform better in most electorates and win a few more seats that the last election (but still not a majority). The PTP vote will be eroded by improved Democrat support in some areas, but particularly by the BJT in their "stronghold" areas. The PTP (PPP) didn't win the last election, and required support from the minority parties to from government. They will do worse in the next election, and currently do not have the support of most of the minor parties, which will probably continue, so the PTP will not be able to "win".

Overall, I expect the Democrats to form another coalition government. The spanner in the works is Newin's BJT.

Ok understood.Well let's see how the General Election turns out.My particular concern is that this a fair and transparent process.

If it doesn't embarrass you what I like about your position is that you don't claim omniscience and you correctly identify some wild cards.Politics in Thailand is as subject to volatility and chance as anywhere else.As Harold Macmillan once famously said when asked what was most likely to knock governments off course, "Events,dear boy,events".

The election, if there is to be one (and remember before the last election the armuy opinion poll got it exactly right), will be decided before the vote. The Democrats are going to hold their seats. Whatever exisits of the PTP will win their seats in the upper North and Upper Isaan. A few local small parties will win their littel fiefdoms. That only leaves BJT and the wavering PTP of the central, lower northern and lower Isaan areas plus a few PTP supporting families who may want a foot in both camps. At issue in these areas is whaich powerful brokers will elave PTP for BJT. We have recently seen the powerful Adireksan family do exactly this. This is where the battle will be and it will expensive abd brutal. If the gambit works, the vote that follows will be inevitable. If the gambot doesnt work well that brings us back to my first sentence.

Another thing to watch is the inversion of the Dem disolution case. The evidence was always a bit cirumtantial but now with witnesses being pushed to answer questions over a set up with locatioon and people named this could come back on PTP considering one of those named is their head honcho and that the witness yesterday didnt want to repsond to questions rtaher than denying allegations.

By the way the main reason there wont be an election right now is that a disolution case is in progress. The Dems wont call it until that is over same as TRT and PPP didnt.

[Piengrudee]

Why did PAD gets ZERO seat? I thoughts millions of bangkok people support them. Was I fooled by the yellow? If Bangkok position will be reflected in a General Election, again PAD will get ZERO seat. 000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Edited August 31, 2010 by Piengrudee

[wayfarer108]

I still cannot figure why PAD cannot even win a SINGLE seat. I thought people in Don Muang & Suwannaphum love PAD?

Probably for the same reason PT did so badly. Bangkokians are sick of parties that have promoted violence in their streets.

[Buchholz]

I still cannot figure why PAD cannot even win a SINGLE seat. I thought people in Don Muang & Suwannaphum love PAD?

Probably for the same reason PT did so badly.

And as the Reds go, so go their bedmates, the PTP.

Whether it's their MP's on a national level abandoning their party edicts, such as voting with the coalition on the budget bill passage, which is prompting their removal (and, consequently, the 6 PTP MP seats that go with them) from the Party membership. Most of them have said they will go with the Bhum Jai Thai Party, but also to the Democrat Party.

OR

on a local level, the PTP are defecting directly to the Democrats in yesterday's Bangkok elections.

The Democrats could point at former Pheu Thai candidates who defected to their side and won big

Combined, the PTP is listing very noticeably to the starboard with all the leakage from within its hull.

Lastly, in further evidence of "Bangkokians are sick of parties that have promoted violence in their streets" is the no-show by the Red Shirt Khattiyatham Party in the local election.

[rubl]

Pheu Thai loses in Bangkok elections because of red-shirt protesters: Plodprasop

Pheu Thai Party deputy leader Plodprasop Surassawadi Monday admitted that his party had lost in the Bangkok city council and district council elections partly because of the red-shirt protesters.

"We should not deny this repercussion. Bangkokians always think about the burning of the city," Plodprasop said.

"Jatuporn Promphan has announced that he will not lead red-shirt people to be killed in Bangkok again and this is a good thing because Bangkokians will stop worrying."

Plodprasop said the silent majority did not come out to vote and this was another reason that caused the party to lose in the elections.

-- The Nation 2010-08-30

Partially lost because of red-shirt protesters: K. Prompong admits some of the population associates PTP with Red's. Wonder why? Wouldn't have anything to do with having K. Korkaew as candidate a few weeks ago?

As for K. Jatuporn's remark, "not lead to be killed again" ? Now really, did he do that, the naughty boy. If not to BKK where will we go now to 'peacefully protest' with a big campfire?

Edited August 31, 2010 by rubl

[Buchholz]

Partially lost because of red-shirt protesters: K. Prompong admits some of the population associates PTP with Red's. Wonder why? Wouldn't have anything to do with having K. Korkaew as candidate a few weeks ago?

Might also have something to do with PTP lawyers representing the various Red Shirt Bombers that have been arrested over the recent Bangkok bombings, PTP MP's actively speaking on Red stages, etc. etc. etc. countless times, culminating in PTP MP Jatuporn being a core Red Shirt Leader.

[hammered]

My father in law is one of those that was elected yesterday.

He is a Thaksin supporter ( the only one in the family )

Needless to say, he is a happy camper today.

Please try to persuade your wife to make him see reason!

The local council elections have no significance for the national stage as the Democrats have minimal presence in the north and Issan.They really must campaign there from now on, but if Mark gets banned with other luminaries it will be a big blow.

I said sometime ago that the yellows were a spent force, Sonthi was, and is, an excellent fighter, but he's no good at building the peac. Now it's up to the Democrats to widen their base with more young blood.

In the short term that wont be the Dem aim. They can potientially expand slightly into a few central and lower northern areas at most. The next eelction though will be about the BJT eating up as much PTP territory as it can and then doing another deal with the Dems imho. It is highly unlikely the BJT will do a deal with PTP.

BJT may also take a bit from Dems in the east as long as they remain seen to be anti-Thaksin

As you point out the battle ground will be in the north and NE but between BJT and PTP. The only way to win in the N and NE is by hiring in powerful local families and canvassing networks. The Dems have traditionally spurned this approach or at leats have since Thaksin removed their powerful Northern clans in his great suck. This is more a BJT game

[thaihome]

...As you point out the battle ground will be in the north and NE but between BJT and PTP. The only way to win in the N and NE is by hiring in powerful local families and canvassing networks. The Dems have traditionally spurned this approach or at leats have since Thaksin removed their powerful Northern clans in his great suck. This is more a BJT game

You are certainly correct and a great analysis. Lots of rumors that Thaksin is already started getting ready for the election.

TH

[Siripon]

My father in law is one of those that was elected yesterday.

He is a Thaksin supporter ( the only one in the family )

Needless to say, he is a happy camper today.

Please try to persuade your wife to make him see reason!

The local council elections have no significance for the national stage as the Democrats have minimal presence in the north and Issan.They really must campaign there from now on, but if Mark gets banned with other luminaries it will be a big blow.

I said sometime ago that the yellows were a spent force, Sonthi was, and is, an excellent fighter, but he's no good at building the peac. Now it's up to the Democrats to widen their base with more young blood.

In the short term that wont be the Dem aim. They can potientially expand slightly into a few central and lower northern areas at most. The next eelction though will be about the BJT eating up as much PTP territory as it can and then doing another deal with the Dems imho. It is highly unlikely the BJT will do a deal with PTP.

BJT may also take a bit from Dems in the east as long as they remain seen to be anti-Thaksin

As you point out the battle ground will be in the north and NE but between BJT and PTP. The only way to win in the N and NE is by hiring in powerful local families and canvassing networks. The Dems have traditionally spurned this approach or at leats have since Thaksin removed their powerful Northern clans in his great suck. This is more a BJT game

I think it's highly possible PhumJai Thai will do a deal with Pheua Thai, there are no ideals in that party to be considered, that's one reason why I think the Democrats need to regain lost territory in the north and northeast