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Aussie $ On Parity With Usd By End Of 2010


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Sssshh ... The last time AUD parity with the USD was predicted was in July 2008, and we know what happened after that.

In October 2008 friends visiting Thailand were getting 21 baht to the dollar for their AUD while the USD was still around 33-34.

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Yes it is good news for some of us. But the Oz dollar to the Thai baht hasn't really moved down for long. I see its back now to the 28/29 level that it has been for several years.

But the Thai baht's strength is confusing. I used to think there was some conspiracy around to keep it healthy, but I don't believe that anymore. When you have a look at what Thailand sells most of -eg. rice, rubber, technology, tourism, its a healthy economy. Its just very hard to understand how it works! I still don't understand how the 30baht health system is paid for, but it is, and by world standards, its not too bad.

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They are just sitting back and waiting and why shouldn't they ? ..... The inflation factor is pretty much assumed to be the fault of the other countries for their poor money management so more expensive products are pretty much assumed to be in the future the fact that it comes from a strong Thai bht or from wage inflation or anything else the consumers aren't really going to question they will just blame it on money printing Fed Reserve Banks and assume it to be their own fault.

I think the exchange rate for tourists is another wait and see opportunity....... if you can, of course you want more affluent customers, so why rock the boat now as opposed to wait and see how high is too high and how high is just right if you can.

A strong Thai bht is a great thing for those investors that want to use their profits inside Thailand and not so much for those that want to take the money and run, once again making it a plus to Thailand to motivate people to use the monies here.

My guess is that they are just going to let it ride until it get's to high, if it gets to high, and then they can do what everyone else does .... take their profits and spend them and then some until the currency goes down again. Then they please the people with some freebie\s, roads ect, get some more gold or other assets and it starts all over again. It's pretty easy to lower the currency .... just spend more than you have , a lot harder to make it go up. You have live within your means and not caught up in a world crunch or make your own mistakes to cause your own, relying on both yourself and everyone else. So the danger isn't really in it getting to high the danger lies in making it go down or holding it down and then having it go down more than you wanted by external forces. If the exporters get in a real crunch one massive road building project with borrowed money would solve the problem or some similar kind of thing. By the same token if Japan or America was to get out of it's own way or get it's head out of it's butt the same thing will happen, since you never know they will just wait and see until they are forced to do something, rather than risk the unintended double whammy.

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Before the $AUS reaches parity, the $CAD would have to get there first and that is just not in the plans. Yes, the $ may plateau into parity but it can't last. The Canadian economy depends upon the US recovery and as long as the Bank of Canada juggles and supports the US, the $AUS is going to be muted. Keep in mind that the USA has an advantage over all of the other major world economies in that it has one of the most stable countries in the world as its principal energy supplier and major trading partner. The USA economy might be close to life support, but as long as Canada and to a lesser extent Mexico are propping up the US economy, the $US is not going to collapse. Canada needs the $US to increase against the $CAD in order to boost Canadian exports. As such, Canadian manufacturers and energy exporters are going to do their utmost to see that the $US is supported. Keep in mind that other countries also have a vested interest in supporting the $US. China has lent billions to the USA, and the national pension funds of Japan, Germany, France etc have invested billions of Euros into US assets. Any fall in the $US hits them hard so they too are going to be scrambling to support the $US.

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"Canada needs the $US to increase against the $CAD in order to boost Canadian exports. As such, Canadian manufacturers and energy exporters are going to do their utmost to see that the $US is supported."

an interesting claim. how is that "support" done, pray tell? :huh:

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"Canada needs the $US to increase against the $CAD in order to boost Canadian exports. As such, Canadian manufacturers and energy exporters are going to do their utmost to see that the $US is supported."

an interesting claim. how is that "support" done, pray tell? :huh:

I too am interested to learn about that. Maybe the poster meant the Canadians purchasing US Treasury bonds?

Both Canada and Australia have been doing well and good on 'em. However, exporters need importers :D

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Wanna bet? Watch dem negative divergances! It might hit parity but it won't stick.

I would have to agree with you on this one, the Aussie Dollar is a high yielding currency & I imagine theres alot of eyes on it at the moment as its movements on the edge of things can tend to indicate something bigger is brewing.

Aussie hero one day, little Aussie battler/pacific paeso the next :lol: . Theres money to be made people & theres no shortage of people trading the AUD these days. $$$$$$ Kching!

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Australia is one country that was not affected by the global financial problems. There was several reasons for that, we had a better banking system and most of our trade is with China, mineral exports of coal, iron ore and gas.

Australia has a higher interest rate than most countries.

Our official national unemployment rate is about 5.1%.

The AUD is overvalued perhaps by 20% but the Chinese Yuan is undervalued against the USD. It should be remembered that the AUD/USD rate fell to $0.47 in 2001 and today it is at 95 to 96.

Its relationship to the THB? If the AUD/USD is trading at $0.95 the AUD/THB will be 95% of the THB/USD rate. If that is 30.5 the AUD/USD will be 29.0 Use as a guide.

Australia has a strong domestic economy.

Australias future is linked at the moment to Communist China, and no one knows where that will lead. China is export driven and its main trade is with the USA. So if the USA slows imports from China, China will suffer and so will Australia.

There is good reason to bring in some measures of protectionism along with some regulation and control especially in banking and finance.

 

Edited by electau
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Australia is one country that was not affected by the global financial problems. There was several reasons for that, we had a better banking system

But thats one hel_l of a bubble in your property market to be boasting about your banking system.

Its the biggest bubble on the planet would i not be right in thinking?

page1-800px-House_Price_Index_-_Aus_USA_UK_NZ.pdf.jpg

Edited by Englander
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^Some information in Australia suggests that there is another type of problem with the housing industry in that there isnt enough of them (SHORTAGE) and this is one of the key differences between what has happened elsewhere.

I don't know, I don't know how these people arrive at their figures and estimates.

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^Some information in Australia suggests that there is another type of problem with the housing industry in that there isnt enough of them (SHORTAGE) and this is one of the key differences between what has happened elsewhere.

I don't know, I don't know how these people arrive at their figures and estimates.

Yes the old shortage of property line those Estate Agents and property experts know their stuff, but they've been knocking that lie out in England aswell, and the bubble has just gone bang and prices will be decimated .. i think its wonderful!

Edited by Englander
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^Some information in Australia suggests that there is another type of problem with the housing industry in that there isnt enough of them (SHORTAGE) and this is one of the key differences between what has happened elsewhere.

I don't know, I don't know how these people arrive at their figures and estimates.

Yes the old shortage of property line those Estate Agents and property experts know their stuff, but they've been knocking that lie out in England aswell, and the bubble has just gone bang and prices will be decimated .. i think its wonderful!

I really hope this happens in Australia, that would be just SWEET, sorry I'm one of those sadistic oportunist like people ;)

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^Some information in Australia suggests that there is another type of problem with the housing industry in that there isnt enough of them (SHORTAGE) and this is one of the key differences between what has happened elsewhere.

I don't know, I don't know how these people arrive at their figures and estimates.

Yes the old shortage of property line those Estate Agents and property experts know their stuff, but they've been knocking that lie out in England aswell, and the bubble has just gone bang and prices will be decimated .. i think its wonderful!

I really hope this happens in Australia, that would be just SWEET, sorry I'm one of those sadistic oportunist like people ;)

There is nothing sadistic about wanting your average working man/women to be able to afford an ok property without having to hand over the best part of their wages he/she earns in 25-30 years .. just to fund bankers bonuses.

Australia shouldnt put all its eggs in the one basket that is China buying its minerals forever more ... its similar to the British govt backing the Financial centre of London to the detriment of every other aspect thatll lead to a balanced economy ... but your new Prime Minister comes across as thick as pigs muck so i dont hold out much hope.

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but your new Prime Minister comes across as thick as pigs muck so i dont hold out much hope.

:lol:

No, its definately a sad state of affairs, hopefully she won't be in power for long.

My estimate is 6 months, and maybe a good chance of a double dissolution. A PM not to be trusted.

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"Canada needs the $US to increase against the $CAD in order to boost Canadian exports. As such, Canadian manufacturers and energy exporters are going to do their utmost to see that the $US is supported."

an interesting claim. how is that "support" done, pray tell? :huh:

By ensuring that Canadian interest rates are kept low preventing an influx of $US investments. The US represents the largest export market for Canada. A stronger US dollar makes Canadian exports cheaper to purchase on the US side. As the largest energy exporter into the US market, Canada has held off from a hike in energy taxes. Canada could easily generate several extra billion dollars in revenue by hiking the taxes. This deferral has acted to steady the balance of trade deficit. As well, Canadian provinces have agreed to several major energy supply projects that will serve to support the US industrial base by providing low cost and reliable energy. Bear in mind that all imports of hydro electricity power and 90% of all natural gas imports into the USA come from Canada. Americans and Europeans are clueless to how dependent the US economy is on Canada. The day Canada closes the crude oil spigot and disconnects from the hydro electric power grid is the day the US ecoonomy dies.

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"Canada needs the $US to increase against the $CAD in order to boost Canadian exports. As such, Canadian manufacturers and energy exporters are going to do their utmost to see that the $US is supported."

an interesting claim. how is that "support" done, pray tell? :huh:

By ensuring that Canadian interest rates are kept low preventing an influx of $US investments. The US represents the largest export market for Canada. A stronger US dollar makes Canadian exports cheaper to purchase on the US side. As the largest energy exporter into the US market, Canada has held off from a hike in energy taxes. Canada could easily generate several extra billion dollars in revenue by hiking the taxes. This deferral has acted to steady the balance of trade deficit. As well, Canadian provinces have agreed to several major energy supply projects that will serve to support the US industrial base by providing low cost and reliable energy. Bear in mind that all imports of hydro electricity power and 90% of all natural gas imports into the USA come from Canada. Americans and Europeans are clueless to how dependent the US economy is on Canada. The day Canada closes the crude oil spigot and disconnects from the hydro electric power grid is the day the US ecoonomy dies.

what you listed might be correct. however, "canadian manufacturers and energy exporters" cannot influence canadian interest rates.

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