New Zealand Dollar Versus Oz$ Reversal?

[Harmonica]

Strong evidence that the rally of the New Zealand Dollar against the Aussie Dollar that started in 2000 has reversed course.

This refers to just the relationship between this currency pair and has no bearing on the US Dollar.

The smarter thing would have been for anybody with either of these 2 currencies to have just simply switched to the USD back in late December 2004.

But for downunderees who don't look anywhere else and just compete with each other, watch out -- OZ looks ready to trounce NZ.

Next couple weeks will shed more light on this assertion -- just like the Pound/Euro, it needs some more study!

[chuchok]

Strong evidence that the rally of the New Zealand Dollar against the Aussie Dollar that started in 2000 has reversed course.

This refers to just the relationship between this currency pair and has no bearing on the US Dollar.

The smarter thing would have been for anybody with either of these 2 currencies to have just simply switched to the USD back in late December 2004.

But for downunderees who don't look anywhere else and just compete with each other, watch out -- OZ looks ready to trounce NZ.

Next couple weeks will shed more light on this assertion -- just like the Pound/Euro, it needs some more study!

   

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

you've got to remember Harmonica, that NZ is a very, very small economy....somebody farts and it will effect the dollar...depending on the smell of course.

All it needs is one of the Larger primary producer exporters (NZ Dairy as an example) to announce a down turn in revenue (Normally due to the high NZD over the last year or so)...and all ###### breaks loose.

[nev]

as long has the aussie keeps going up against the baht i dont care.

aussie hit32.19baht up around 2 baht in a few months, up up up we go and 4 weeks i touch down in thailand again.

[Harmonica]

Strong evidence that the rally of the New Zealand Dollar against the Aussie Dollar that started in 2000 has reversed course.

This refers to just the relationship between this currency pair and has no bearing on the US Dollar.

The smarter thing would have been for anybody with either of these 2 currencies to have just simply switched to the USD back in late December 2004.

But for downunderees who don't look anywhere else and just compete with each other, watch out -- OZ looks ready to trounce NZ.

Next couple weeks will shed more light on this assertion -- just like the Pound/Euro, it needs some more study!

   

you've got to remember Harmonica, that NZ is a very, very small economy....somebody farts and it will effect the dollar...depending on the smell of course.

All it needs is one of the Larger primary producer exporters (NZ Dairy as an example) to announce a down turn in revenue (Normally due to the high NZD over the last year or so)...and all ###### breaks loose.

I hear you, chuchok and your explanation is right on the money.

What I'm getting at though is the general long, long runs in these currency trends -- once they get going they go on for years. The recent strong NZ$ vs Oz$ trend lasted 5 years.

If the trend has indeed reversed (???), then NZ economy relative to that of Oz is heading south -- do you see any of this happening already or is it too early to comment specifically?

Thanks for your thoughts on this subject!

[bendix]

I live and work in Thailand (and get paid in Baht).

I have a house in Auckland, generating NZ$ dollar rent every month.

And I have a wad of cash sitting in a high interest bearing account in Australia, generating more income.

All looking good from my perspective

[Harmonica]

I live and work in Thailand (and get paid in Baht).

I have a house in Auckland, generating NZ$ dollar rent every month.

And I have a wad of cash sitting in a high interest bearing account in Australia, generating more income.

All looking good from my perspective

And may you continue to flourish & prosper!

[chuchok]

Strong evidence that the rally of the New Zealand Dollar against the Aussie Dollar that started in 2000 has reversed course.

This refers to just the relationship between this currency pair and has no bearing on the US Dollar.

The smarter thing would have been for anybody with either of these 2 currencies to have just simply switched to the USD back in late December 2004.

But for downunderees who don't look anywhere else and just compete with each other, watch out -- OZ looks ready to trounce NZ.

Next couple weeks will shed more light on this assertion -- just like the Pound/Euro, it needs some more study!

   

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

you've got to remember Harmonica, that NZ is a very, very small economy....somebody farts and it will effect the dollar...depending on the smell of course.

All it needs is one of the Larger primary producer exporters (NZ Dairy as an example) to announce a down turn in revenue (Normally due to the high NZD over the last year or so)...and all ###### breaks loose.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I hear you, chuchok and your explanation is right on the money.

What I'm getting at though is the general long, long runs in these currency trends -- once they get going they go on for years. The recent strong NZ$ vs Oz$ trend lasted 5 years.

If the trend has indeed reversed (???), then NZ economy relative to that of Oz is heading south -- do you see any of this happening already or is it too early to comment specifically?

Thanks for your thoughts on this subject!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The Aussie economy is quite strong.NZ economy has been doing well and has been in surplus. A new budget was just announced a couple of months ago...spending most of the surplus on Health, education and roads etc,but no tax cuts which has also effected things a little.Combine that with an election within the next 2 months and who knows where it will go.

The NZD can also "piggy-back" on the AUD as well.

Also, if the "All Blacks" (National Rugby team) win, business confidence goes up...I kid you not!

There is a very old joke that did the Rounds with the last Labour Government.

The Sultan of Brunei asked his yougest son what he wanted for his birthday.His son replied "A mickey mouse outfit dad" The Sultan said to his secretary "get me the Prime Minister of NZ..quick smart"

[Harmonica]

Strong evidence that the rally of the New Zealand Dollar against the Aussie Dollar that started in 2000 has reversed course.

This refers to just the relationship between this currency pair and has no bearing on the US Dollar.

The smarter thing would have been for anybody with either of these 2 currencies to have just simply switched to the USD back in late December 2004.

But for downunderees who don't look anywhere else and just compete with each other, watch out -- OZ looks ready to trounce NZ.

Next couple weeks will shed more light on this assertion -- just like the Pound/Euro, it needs some more study!

   

you've got to remember Harmonica, that NZ is a very, very small economy....somebody farts and it will effect the dollar...depending on the smell of course.

All it needs is one of the Larger primary producer exporters (NZ Dairy as an example) to announce a down turn in revenue (Normally due to the high NZD over the last year or so)...and all ###### breaks loose.

I hear you, chuchok and your explanation is right on the money.

What I'm getting at though is the general long, long runs in these currency trends -- once they get going they go on for years. The recent strong NZ$ vs Oz$ trend lasted 5 years.

If the trend has indeed reversed (???), then NZ economy relative to that of Oz is heading south -- do you see any of this happening already or is it too early to comment specifically?

Thanks for your thoughts on this subject!

The Aussie economy is quite strong.NZ economy has been doing well and has been in surplus. A new budget was just announced a couple of months ago...spending most of the surplus on Health, education and roads etc,but no tax cuts which has also effected things a little.Combine that with an election within the next 2 months and who knows where it will go.

The NZD can also "piggy-back" on the AUD as well.

Also, if the "All Blacks" (National Rugby team) win, business confidence goes up...I kid you not!

There is a very old joke that did the Rounds with the last Labour Government.

The Sultan of Brunei asked his yougest son what he wanted for his birthday.His son replied "A mickey mouse outfit dad" The Sultan said to his secretary "get me the Prime Minister of NZ..quick smart"

good stuff. Thanks!

[TizMe]

http://smh.com.au/news/business/why-austra...1538973446.html

Why Australia has outgrown the guru

By Peter Hartcher

July 20, 2005

The Prime Minister, John Howard, yesterday sought the counsel of the great guru of the world economy, Alan Greenspan. However, some of America's most prominent market-watchers think he may be looking for advice in the wrong place.

"He's certainly travelled a long way to learn not very much," remarked Jim Grant, publisher of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, on the hotel meeting with the US Federal Reserve chairman.

"I think President Bush ought to fly to Australia if he wants to find out what's going on."

How so?

There are three reasons, and none of them is that Australia, with its $796 billion a year economy, has displaced the US and its $US11,600 billion a year output as the world's economic engine.

The first is that more and more analysts think Australia has done a better job of running its economy since 1990 than the US.

Paul Kasriel, head of research at Northern Trust, a Chicago firm with half a trillion dollars in assets under management, said: "I would swap your guy for Alan Greenspan any day."

The name of "our guy" - the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Ian Macfarlane - may not reverberate around world markets with the same awe reserved for Dr Greenspan, but his record is without equal in the industrialised world.

Under Dr Greenspan, who is due to retire in January after 18 years in the job, the US fell into a recession in 2001. But Australia has had 15 years of unbroken economic growth, and in the past 10 years has had higher economic growth and faster productivity gains than the US.

Second, Australia happens to be ahead of the US in wrestling with one of the most perplexing problems afflicting many modern economies - a bubble in house prices.

Bill Dudley, the chief economist at the Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs, said the US looked to Australia and Britain for the future of house prices.

"We think the bubble in housing prices is a problem, and our take is that the UK and Australia are running at least 18 months ahead of us, and the US will probably follow a similar path.

'When he came to power the relationship was at its lowest level since the Battle of the Coral Sea.' Rupert Murdoch credits John Howard with saving the US-Australia alliance - Page 11 So we think that Australia and the UK are a useful benchmark for us to watch."

Australia and Britain had a boom in house prices, which was moderated when their central banks raised interest rates. The key question is whether these bubbles have been contained without dragging the whole economy into recession. If so, these are happy prece-dents for the US.

The US has recently had a bad experience with bubbles in asset prices. The boom in the Nasdaq-listed technology stocks of 1996-2000 - a stockmarket bubble - carried the US economy aloft before it collapsed and dragged the country into the recession of 2001.

Third, the US is reassessing the status of Dr Greenspan in the approach to his retirement. The leader of the Democratic Party in the US Senate, Harry Reid, recently dismissed him as "a political hack" for currying favour with George Bush's Administration.

His economic record has come under fresh scrutiny too. Mr Kasriel said: "I think people are starting to look at his role in enabling the housing bubble and the Nasdaq bubble. He inherited a good situation when he took the job, but I don't think he's leaving his successor with a good situation; the housing bubble is going to unravel."

But perhaps Mr Howard was looking for something more than Dr Greenspan's economic insights which, after all, will be on open display in his final testimony before the US Congress tomorrow.

Mr Howard recalls vividly his first encounter with Dr Greenspan more than 20 years ago, when the economist, hearing that Mr Howard was from Australia, remarked: "Ah yes, Australia, the country with the biggest middle class in the world."

The thought struck Mr Howard forcefully, and much of his political success since derives from his understanding of Australia as an aspirational middle-class society.

For John Howard, Alan Greenspan will always be a guru.