Pigs 101 (A Start)

[Brabo]

Hi guys,

This is my first post. I am not only a newbee at this forum, but also in the pig-farming-bussines.

I've learned already by reading your posts and wil continue doing this!

Kind regards

[shaggy1969]

Hi guys,

This is my first post. I am not only a newbee at this forum, but also in the pig-farming-bussines.

I've learned already by reading your posts and wil continue doing this!

Kind regards

Hi Brabo and welcome

[RedBullHorn]

welcome to the topic, Brabo

[lucky2103]

Hiya,

it seems that a new player in the pig feed arena appeared (at least in my area): KT- Feed (Krung Thai Feed)

http://www.ktfeedmill.com/annimal7.htm

Has anyone ever used this feed and may share some experience ?

Thanks for your kind help.

[IsaanAussie]

China: pig prices impact the world economy

26-Sep-2011 ASAHI

http://www.asahi.com

Of the 1 billion pigs being raised in the world, about half are in China, where pork consumption is increasing as the Chinese economy develops. As a result, pork prices are rising, a trend that is impacting the world economy.

To ease the public's dissatisfaction with the price increase, which could lead to rioting, the Chinese government is increasing pork production. However, the move is causing a growth in demand for pig feed and raising feed prices in international markets.

Following the rise in living standards in China, the number of people who prefer eating meat is growing. However production is not keeping up with the increasing demand. As a result, the price of one pig has increased from 600 yuan (7,280 yen, or $94) to 2,100 yuan.

Corn feed prices have tripled since 2007. The starting wage for migrant workers from Sichuan province and other parts of China has doubled to 2,200 yuan.

In China, pork production has increased more than 10 percent in the past five years to 52.5 million tons. By comparison, poultry production is about a quarter of that amount and beef about one-eighth.

The consumer price index (CPI) in China in July rose 6.5 percent from the same month last year. The growth rate is the largest since June 2008. Of the 6.5 percent, 1.5 percent was attributed to pork, whose prices rose nearly 60 percent year-on-year.

In July, the government announced that it would earmark 2.5 billion yuan for expansion of pig farms and breed improvement. It also plans to release stockpiled frozen pork and import some products from the United States.

By inviting participation from foreign companies, the government is also trying to improve distribution systems and expand pig farms to raise production efficiency. However, those measures are not expected to bring immediate relief. Small-scale pig farm operators, which account for most of the pig farm operators in the country, are withdrawing from the business one after another due to the increase in production costs.

In China, pork prices have been in a three-year cycle, but there is a growing sign that such a cycle will not reoccur. The rise in prices of feeds and fuels is increasingly linked to overseas market moves. In addition, personnel costs are rising. As a result, there is a growing possibility that pork prices will not decline as much as expected.

The pork production increase is also raising world grain prices. In China, corn imports that are used for pig feed increased sharply from 50,000 tons in 2008 to 1.57 million tons in 2010.

In the Chicago market, the futures prices of corn per 25 kilograms rose sharply from less than $4 in the first half of 2010 to about $8 in June, marking the highest price ever.

The volume of China's corn imports is not large compared to the country's domestic production of 177 million tons.

Meanwhile, anticipating that pork consumption in China will increase further, companies in Japan, including Marubeni, Singapore and other countries are investing in pig farming-related businesses in China.

[RedBullHorn]

good read !

[IsaanAussie]

Yeah RBH, it is interesting. It seems that China is standing apart from the pig world as an exception. I read an article yesterday on the web written by an American industry guy and he claims that there is a global shift towards a common price base. Makes sense when you consider the shift to large scale farms everywhere, even China. What it means is the prices will stay more stable.

Here given the 30% production shortfall this year here and growing export potential, we may well see the price drop back slightly but I think it will remain pretty constant until the feed prices come up to narrow the current gap.

Attached is a graphic picture of the last two and a half years and a linear trendline which I extended out over ten months. It seems to indicate that the current 80 baht range may come back to 75 by mid 2012. Of course if the government steps in then who knows? I dont think they will do much as the producers association here is getting very noisy.

I would be interested in the views of others.

Isaan Aussie

[IsaanAussie]

Further to the live prices heres my current feed cost per fattened pig. If you compare the price increases you may notice a larger jump. Hopefully not to much. If you want to look more closely, I believe 80% of corn is local and all soy meal is imported, so look look commodities for corn and international for soy.

Feed costs per pig sept 2011.pdf

As far as return on pigs goes, now is the time. Locally piglets are 2,200 baht. Feed cost of 3,400 baht, therefore COP 5,600. Currently 8,000 to 8,300 for the finished pig so a profit of 2,400 baht. Now thats better than the 500 baht people were getting 12 months ago. Lets hope it lasts a bit longer.

IA

Oh yeah, that depends if you can get piglets of course. In Buri Ram I know an agent who cant get feed. Tells me that while the fire is hot, there are an increasing number of irons being poked into it.

[RedBullHorn]

Yeah RBH, it is interesting. It seems that China is standing apart from the pig world as an exception. I read an article yesterday on the web written by an American industry guy and he claims that there is a global shift towards a common price base. Makes sense when you consider the shift to large scale farms everywhere, even China. What it means is the prices will stay more stable.

Here given the 30% production shortfall this year here and growing export potential, we may well see the price drop back slightly but I think it will remain pretty constant until the feed prices come up to narrow the current gap.

Attached is a graphic picture of the last two and a half years and a linear trendline which I extended out over ten months. It seems to indicate that the current 80 baht range may come back to 75 by mid 2012. Of course if the government steps in then who knows? I dont think they will do much as the producers association here is getting very noisy.

I would be interested in the views of others.

Isaan Aussie

Remember the time when i mention that i was export live pig ? It did very well for 3 months until the exchange rate of Chinese Yuan to THB sink (I did it in L/C from banks as the cash was to much for me to carry across the bridge ). I was exporting 200 heads per week to areas building the speed rail track connecting China to Laos, the best part is the buyers there like them big, 120-130kg average.

[Brabo]

Hi there,

As Isaan Aussie knows, I am starting-up a (small scale) pigfarm in Sisaket province.

Amphur Kun Han, Bak Dong to be correct.

Who can give me a phonenumber from a wholesaler of Betagro feed near my farm? The wholesalers we found didn't have this brand.

I allready contacted Betagro, but they gave me an unreachable number :-(

Thanks in advance

[IsaanAussie]

Hi pigsters,

When things are good here everyone rushes in to find that the normal three year cycles change things for the worse. I am no prophet of doom but it pays to gaze into the crystal ball every now and then.

I am planning to restock my breeding herd and pull my production back to a 4x4 batch as I have talked about before. I thought some of you may be interested in the impact on the cash flow of potential decreases in pig prices and increases in feed bills would have on my operation.

Remember that a batch system is different to a continous flow of raising pigs. With a batch system you are selling pigs every month not at 4 to 6 month intervals. Therefore I would suggest that this be treated as a minimum impact drop in terms of cash flow.

The period shown in the graph is 18 months and the price of piglets and pigs in baht per kilo is shown in the legend. The feed bill numbers are derived by add 20 baht per bag of feed every 6 months. That rate of increase is slightly higher than I have had before but my gut says it will be increasing.

Cash Impact of Pig and Feed Prices.pdf

The impact on cash balance is (115,000) feed and (340,00) piglets and pigs. The result is a 53% drop in net profit.

Isaan Aussie.

[IsaanAussie]

For anyone who read my postings about mummified pigs a few months ago, some good news. The sow first affected has just delivered 10 live piglets. Yippee...

[RedBullHorn]

[IsaanAussie]

For anyone who read my postings about mummified pigs a few months ago, some good news. The sow first affected has just delivered 10 live piglets. Yippee...

Actually it was 11. I'm getting old, day before yesterday when the litter was arriving I kept count as I was doing the chores of the day. I thought the tally was eight and went back to find seven, no sign of number eight. Anyway, on we go and the last three arrive, everything is cleaned up and the day goes on. Yesterday morning my helper comes in early with a huge smile, telling me I was wrong there are 11. Got me beat, but happy.

[Brabo]

<br />For anyone who read my postings about mummified pigs a few months ago, some good news. The sow first affected has just delivered 10 live piglets. Yippee...<br />

<br /><br /><br />

Congratulations "daddy" ;-)

[sam505]

IA are you sure you were not on the LEO again and counted the empties instead of the piglets but anyway best of luck with the new litter.

[IsaanAussie]

Recently there was a sharp correction in pig prices nationally. It was more than I expected and prompted me to take another look at my planning. It also has spurred a few questions from guys who have been thinking about setting up something for the wife or GF.

So to try to explain the pitfalls have a look at the chart attached. It shows the US pig prices over the last 5 years. Sorry I have some doubts on the information I have on the Thai market so I choose not to use it as an example. There are clear parallels which are the point I make.

USA seasonal Prices 5 years.pdf

Firstly looking at the shaded area of prices you will note a seasonal decline in the autumn each year which bottoms out in December. Other factors effect the maximum and minimum levels but the basic industry shows consistent trends. The same happens here as RedBullHorn pointed out. As the Thai Industry matures under corporate farming domination, the yearly highs end just prior to the Bhuddist Lent and decline quickly as overstock is cleared. Prices build again as New Year and Chinese New Year approach building to the pre Lent peak.

So given that, if you are going to invest in some pigs for the lady's family to raise, when should you do it? Take another look at the graph at the column bars. Here the gain in pig prices during the period from purchase of piglets at 4 to 6 weeks old until they are grown out and sold at 100 kgs. Basically in the US, you buy piglets at the lowest price point not at the top of the market.

Now is too late for the New Year peak to start piglets, but not too late if you buy advanced growers. If you can buy pigs that where farrowed in July, at todays prices, then you will do alright. Find someone with young pigs, a hole and his pocket and terror in the eyes.

Isaan Aussie

[RedBullHorn]

[IsaanAussie]

I would like to suggest to anyone who is into pig farming here that you have a look at the livestock statistics published for your province. I am forward planning my herd and to be honest I was startled by what I found. Whilst Sisaket province matches the national average of 1.6 boars per breeding farm there are more boars than sows in my Amphoe and a maximum of 24 sows held by any one breeder. What that means, without going into the details of the number of people growing out piglets, I have a potential market within a 20 km radius or less of over 5,000 piglets a year. Little wonder I cleared everything so easily last time.

Overall in the province everything is in balance and there is the capacity to maintain the numbers, but the distribution of that capacity is a different story. We have all read that from a national perspective, the Dept of Ag and Co-Ops has the task of maintaining these balances, and that interprovincial trading is monitored and "sometimes" controlled. But within the province it's more a matter of each Amphoe for itself.

If you want to breed pigs or for that matter just grow them, check your locations numbers out. You can determine your market for live pigs and get an idea of the competition's potential among the growers around your local market.

In my case some jealousy related complaints have caused problems at Tambon level where there are only small growing farms and little interest. But when those issues were brought to Amphoe level, they were met with deaf ears. Now I figure I have an idea why I got supported, I can help improve the supply from within the Amphoe rather than having all those piglets being bought from "outside". Could be wrong of course....but this is Thailand.

[IsaanAussie]

A week ago I posted about the seasonal nature of prices and used the US as a sample. I have been asked to get the Thai numbers together. Actually, pestered is closer to the truth.

The first graph shows the live prices here in Thailand according to Betagro for the last four years. A simple linear trendline seems to indicate that prices are trending upwards.

But if you look at the same numbers overlaid week by week you see a different story. The 2009 and 2010 figures indicate that the prices are staying static with all 4 years being pinned at this time of year at between 50 and 55 baht. Even this year is heading back to that point. The high numbers this year have been attributed to the 54 outbreaks of PRRS and the 30% reduction in production. Now new stock is coming on stream things are returning to normal it would seem.

The third chart shows the relationship between pig and piglet price movements over the 4 years. Potential pig raisers should look for trends where piglets are cheap, four to five months before pigs are expensive to find the "right time" to jump in.

[RedBullHorn]

Well done IA...

I've four of this charts for pigs and another four of it for Big Oui catfish, i can't post them because i charted them since farmgate price for live pig was at historic low of ฿35/kg...my charts are graphed on the vanguard sheet and pasted on the wall in my planning room.

One of my pig chart is a 7days moving average graph chart accounding to the Buddhism calender,

This is the chart that determine the weekly price trend according to " Wan Sinn " tradition.

Support and resistance line is now at ฿60/kg...moving average is at ฿58/kg.

Yes...You guess it, i was a commodity trader before i become a farmer

...so where is the chart for pellet feed ?

[IsaanAussie]

Well done IA...

I've four of this charts for pigs and another four of it for Big Oui catfish, i can't post them because i charted them since farmgate price for live pig was at historic low of ฿35/kg...my charts are graphed on the vanguard sheet and pasted on the wall in my planning room.

One of my pig chart is a 7days moving average graph chart accounding to the Buddhism calender,

This is the chart that determine the weekly price trend according to " Wan Sinn " tradition.

Support and resistance line is now at ฿60/kg...moving average is at ฿58/kg.

Yes...You guess it, i was a commodity trader before i become a farmer

...so where is the chart for pellet feed ?

Pellet feed chart is probably pasted on your planning room wall? Forgive me if the Buddhist charts are beyond me, but I will try to catch up. My moving average is at 57.2 because I dont use this years numbers as yet, swings are too big and too much influenced by external factors. Resistance point I think you are right. All in all we seem to be on the same page. By the way, my background was strategic market development.

Hey, do you think anyone is taking any notice of this stuff? Second question, how many pigs do you have at the moment? For everyone else, think about this answer very carefully.

[wandrinstar]

Stick yer Charts, it went down to 22Bht under Chavalit.. I had 500 at any one time,auto feed modern system, the lot, imo you scratch a living, we killed and retailed for 17 years.. Get a 7/11, and retire. Never Again.

[IsaanAussie]

Stick yer Charts, it went down to 22Bht under Chavalit.. I had 500 at any one time,auto feed modern system, the lot, imo you scratch a living, we killed and retailed for 17 years.. Get a 7/11, and retire. Never Again.

Now I understand your posts a little better. I am sorry that you had such a hard time of it but it sounds like you gave it your best shot. 17 years is a long time to put it to see it all turn to dust. I applaud your effort and regret the outcome.

I wont be throwing away my charts as I believe that it is important to try to understand the realities of what you do if you want to do as well as you can. I am sure I don't have to tell you that a lot can happen in the time that a sow conceives and her piglets are sold at market weight. To me, leaving that 9 month investment completely up to chance is just not acceptable. So I try to give myself as many options as I can.

I do agree with you, it is hard work and the return is not great. Yes I am scratching to stay ahead as most who are living off their farms are. Yes cash flow is always a problem. Yes I must be crazy getting involved and spending so much to get established. But you know something? I may have been born under a wandering star as well but I am exactly where I want to be, and doing what I want to do. Win, lose or draw, your best is all you can do.

[RedBullHorn]

Stick yer Charts, it went down to 22Bht under Chavalit.. I had 500 at any one time,auto feed modern system, the lot, imo you scratch a living, we killed and retailed for 17 years.. Get a 7/11, and retire. Never Again.

7/11...i've got 2 outlet in Singapore under my father's management... 22 THB under Chavalit but pellet feed wasn't at present 500 THB/sack.

[wandrinstar]

Dont get me wrong, it was most enjoyable, i cant sit about drinking all day.In the end i sold to a Local who was raising on C.P. s behalf..The prices here crashed in the floods for a while, fish farms were selling of at a loss . As for Franchising, im in Beauty Care now, and most of my mates here are Ozz Barbie Lighters ,so ive heard every version of the Lipstick on a Pig joke going. So now i just drive round Thailand missing the Pong.

[IsaanAussie]

WS,

Yours is a valuable story for anyone thinking of seriously investing in the pig industry here. As in any industry, often circumstances will stop the best of plans and personal application dead in their tracks. Those of us in pig farming here have had a rare opportunity to get a good return for 9 or ten months, some did, RBH for instance. I am just one of the struggle town guys I'm afraid but already ready to learn and adjust.

Good luck in your current activities. Hang tough.

IA

[wandrinstar]

Brits and Ozz blokes never loose mate. One thing that got on my tits were chancers, both Thai n Ferangs. You got the Pom with his redundancy money led up the garden path by Tulak, all they did was bugger up long term plans for the genuine investor and hard worker.If yer got the resolve, you cant loose here, thing is they want the Benz Today,effort free.Hang in, you Crack It.

[RedBullHorn]

WS,

Yours is a valuable story for anyone thinking of seriously investing in the pig industry here. As in any industry, often circumstances will stop the best of plans and personal application dead in their tracks. Those of us in pig farming here have had a rare opportunity to get a good return for 9 or ten months, some did, RBH for instance. I am just one of the struggle town guys I'm afraid but already ready to learn and adjust.

Good luck in your current activities. Hang tough.

IA

Mine was a planned opportunity, step by step, from drowning the wholesalers and supplier dead drunk abstracting classified information to negotiating for credit terms to bribing insider to keeping the cost manageable by building the 2 stars sheds instead of the presidential suites. I have been having a good profitable time since i started almost more than a year and a half ago. I started integrating my catfish farm with piggeries because of the 8 months long drought in 2009 resulting in a lost of income...remember ? It wasn't by chance as i've already demostrated price forcasting in the pass.

I mentioned this in our PM :

"Farming business is annual based, 3 batches per year...sometime we gain, sometime we don't make, at times we lose and sometime we will hit a big one. Part and parcel of doing business to me, sum them up and average them...and i will see what is the nett at the end of the calender cycle. "

"Khun rau mai chai dai ter lodd way la, way la mai dai, tong tarm chai na"-

In life, it is not always we would get what we want, at times the result may vary, be prepare and be expected" -- my wise neighbour.

[IsaanAussie]

I admire your planning skills RBH, but some things are beyond the crystal ball.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Floods Claim More Than 300,000 Pigs

THAILAND - Following the loss of at least 300,000 pigs in the floods, producers are asking the government to extend the current import tariff waiver on feed ingredients, a move introduced to control food costs.

The Swine Raisers Association of Thailand is asking for the import-tariff waiver on animal feed ingredients to be extended for another two years after the floodwaters recede, reports Bangkok Post.

President Surachai Sutthitham said 300,000 swine had been killed in the disastrous floods, and the figure was rising.

The crisis has severely affected large and small farmers alike but the latter are looking at more damage because they have been unable to move their animals in time to save them.

Large farms are better able to take preventive measures but their costs are still rising from transport problems and investment in water prevention systems.

One of the government's populist measures has been a temporary waiver of the two per cent import tariff on soybeans, which are a major ingredient in feed production, in order to help the livestock industry keep costs under control. The Internal Trade Department's suggested pork price is being maintained at 125-135 baht (THB) a kilogramme, depending on location.

The farm-gate price of live swine is THB52 to 58 a kilogramme, down by THB4 to THB5 from two months ago.

Mr Surachai said the price of live swine is actually less than what the government suggests, as raisers are finding they must sell their animals before full maturity to make any profit.

There are no plans for a price increase anytime soon.

Bangkok Post reports that the association predicts the number of pig breeders will decline as many of those in affected areas quit the industry in frustration.