Thaksin To Return To Thailand If Pheu Thai Wins

[Thai at Heart]

If PTP wins, we can thus expect a coup.

There is no way the army is going to let this guy back into the country and be pardoned.

Not a chance.

The coup was only needed when Thaksin had his ironclad grip on the court system. Now they will use the tried and true method of dissolving the party for electoral violations. Much more civilized process and no bad press. Has the virtue of being true as well. We all know there is no way for either party to run a completely clean campaign in Thailand, but it is taken to an art form in Issan, where the PT power base is. There will never be a lack of evidence. Whatever the case, Thaksin will never be allowed to return and terrorize the country again. That is for sure. But he can still continue to create mayhem from overseas.

But truthfully this is all irrelevant. Poll after poll shows the same thing. Thailand is roughly split at 1/3 Democrat, 1/3 PT, and 1/3 everyone else, most notably BJT. Nobody will control the country without the support of Newin. And Newin can always be bought. And as rich as Thaksin is, he isn't rich enough to outbid all of those arrayed against him.

All this talk by T is just his pitiful efforts to keep himself relevant. He is slowly dying, literally and politically. Another decade and I suspect we will finally be rid of the menace. That will be the day Thailand can finally start the process of reconciliation.

It may not be money that Newin wants. What are the odds that he will ever become PM as long as he is with the Dems? What will happen when the inevitable change comes? Which side will come out the strongest after that?

How long can he keep his faction happy fighting at the trough with Abhisit constantly slapping them on the wrist to keep their hands out of the till?

No one can predict which political alliances can be created in Thai politics. It is some of the sleaziest most disgusting horse trading one can imagine.

[hammered]

A well timed attempt to steal some front page headlines as the PTP faces being linked with violence. Also a reminder to the voters that PTP is about him and not anyone else. He sells as a vote getter and it will boost the local amat in PTP who turn out the fiefs at elections too.

Interestingly though if PTP gets l;inked to bombings the party may not last very long. Another problem is that if they select a leader they will immediately lose some MPs. Thaksin has carefully put that off by saying not until after a disolution gambling that will keep allfactions on board until it is too late to party swop and also gambling that if they win an election even those factions piqued will be too scared to desert Thaksins party.

Of course there is another aspect. A Thaksin return is something that is a red line for certain powerful people and he may recognize that winning an election as in getting over 50% is not possible and hoping that by firing up fear he can force a coup or another disolution to breathe more fire into his currently waning and somewhat discredited campaign and to even justify the violence and bombings some of which are now linked in an undeniable way to the red shirts and getting very close to PTP.

Expect a big turn out at Ayuthaya. It is a fiefdom of a PTP amat strongman who has designs on being the leader of PTP and a PM. He needs to please master to achieve this and expect it to be peaceful as the guy is very linked to the red movement and cant see his chances scuppered by idiocy while also needing the reds who are currently damaged by their violence and bombings to need to be rebranded as peaceful without dumping or upsetting any of his lunatic friends in the movement.

Nice poltical games for those who like observing them and we can expect the propagandists to make a sudden reappearance soon as rebranding is needed very quickly.

[jayjay0]

The big question is whether he will make a promise to never return or dabble in Thai politics/paramilitary activities if they lose in a landslide election....that would be nice

Yes, I mean you can say what you like about the man, but his word is his bond.

Witch word. He has so many contradictory words out there that one has to wonder if he knows what he is saying. Fact is if he knew what he was saying he would not need the high priced lawyers he has.

[rametindallas]

If PTP wins, we can thus expect a coup.

There is no way the army is going to let this guy back into the country and be pardoned.

You got that right. That is the bottom line.

[hammered]

If PTP wins, we can thus expect a coup.

There is no way the army is going to let this guy back into the country and be pardoned.

Don't stop at just "the army" - go either way up and down.

Well, we can expect a flock of yellows to sit in Bangkok if he comes back.

However, 4 or 5 years after the coup which was held essentially to get rid of Thaksin, to have him back and a possibility for him to be pardoned through the parliament, the only answer is to get rid of the parliament. Thus a coup.

That is conventional wisdom and he knows it and is likely playing on it for his own ends.

If a PTP majority government came about, and that is afairly big if, things may not come to a head quckly as per Samak before. There may be an uneasy coexistance for a while. That will however imho depend on the timing, PTP agenda and who is leader. If the timing is criticsal ie near reshuffle time or other critical changes action would likely come sooner. If the leader is a nutter like Chalerm or the dude from Ayuthaya it is likely to come sooner and if anyone actually really tries for an amnesty that will likely set off all hel_l. I would guess Abhisit wont call (should that be wont be allowed to call?) an election just before reshuffle time ie it will have to be early next year or after October. Mingkwan or Kosit would be leaders to allow more gaming an potential coexistance. Talk of amnesties tempered by comments on technical difficulties may keep things calmer although the yellows would be out in force farly soon.

Anyway it is all hypothetical as it looks like an election will be inconclusive in terms of nobody getting 50% of seats and of course we are assuming there will be an election. And on that point it has even been suggeste dat times by some on the Thaksin side that a government of national reconcilliation could sit for a couple of years before holdign elections so apart form the obvious there are also other constitution suspending ways of gaining time without forcing anyone into a hole. It will be an interesting year or so.

[zaphodbeeblebrox]

I am amazed however, having spent quite a bit of time around Eastern seaboard working in the last few months, how willingly "middle managers" want to canvass and give an opinion on Thaksin and how cr*p the Dems are. The reds are not some homogeneous lower class ill educated bunch.

There are thousands of middle aged Isaan people working down around the Eastern seaboard for MNC's or have their own companies, and I have been quite shocked about how vocal they are over a beer or on the golf course.

Funny, because I've worked the Eastern Seaboard the last three years and I can only count a handful of red shirt middle managers. Are you talking about Pattaya - because Rayong and the industrial estates around Chonburi overwhelmingly are anti-red shirt. They aren't necessarily pro-Democrat. Spend some time in the city of Rayong and you'll see how wrong you are.

[Thai at Heart]

I am amazed however, having spent quite a bit of time around Eastern seaboard working in the last few months, how willingly "middle managers" want to canvass and give an opinion on Thaksin and how cr*p the Dems are. The reds are not some homogeneous lower class ill educated bunch.

There are thousands of middle aged Isaan people working down around the Eastern seaboard for MNC's or have their own companies, and I have been quite shocked about how vocal they are over a beer or on the golf course.

Funny, because I've worked the Eastern Seaboard the last three years and I can only count a handful of red shirt middle managers. Are you talking about Pattaya - because Rayong and the industrial estates around Chonburi overwhelmingly are anti-red shirt. They aren't necessarily pro-Democrat. Spend some time in the city of Rayong and you'll see how wrong you are.

Well, the conversations that I keep getting dragged into on the golf course or over beers afterwards with people either working in Mapthaput, and other estates in Rayong shows that there are certainly some people with a pro-red opinion. I never claimed all, but I was surprised how openly the discussions take place. I have an apartment in city Rayong, but these subjects aren't the sort of thing you discuss with strangers.

These are guys that I have got to know over the last 6 months ago. Maybe they are just part of a group of friends, colleagues and clients who have all the same opinion. Having spent many years in Isaan, I don't often get openly dragged into these discussions.

[hoaker]

The return of Thaksin is inevitable. I wonder if the democrats win will they reinstate his conviction and have him kicked out again.

[Tod Daniels]

The operative phrase in the entire piece of Puea-Thai political propaganda is;

"if the opposition Puea Thai Party wins a landslide election victory and forms a one-party government.

The linchpin in who gets to run the government is the faction of MP's controlled by banned politician Newin Chidchob currently run under the Bhum-Jai-Thai Party (roughly translates as; Thai Pride Party). What ever side they back, invariably gets a majority of MP's in the lower house and with that the right to form the government via a coalition.

It is nothing but wishful thinking on Puea-Thai Party (roughly translates as For Thai Party) that they could win enough MP's as a stand alone party to form a government.

Even in the elections held after the coup TRT/PPP or what ever incarnation was in effect at that time and resulted in Samak and then Somchai being P/M, they still couldn't garner enough MP's in the lower house to run a one party government, and relied on smaller parties to make a coalition.

I totally concur this is nothing but a well choreographed piece of propaganda designed to further distance the PTP from the recent news which paints them in much less a glowing fashion than this piece of fluff.

Edited October 15, 2010 by tod-daniels

[rubl]

To refresh anyones memory less we forget. From May 6 this year when the PM had just proposed a Nov'14 election and UDD had tentatively accepted.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/05/06/politics/Polls-set-date-for-House-dissolution-30128638.html

and the TV topic

[Buchholz]

A well timed attempt to steal some front page headlines as the PTP faces being linked with violence.

Whether its the PTP linked to the deadly Nonthaburi bombing or their hiring of terrorist mercenaries to be put on the taxpayer's money payroll, more and more of the criminality of the PTP is coming to the forefront.

PTP isn't going to be winning anything if they get dissolved for their Red connection to wanton violence:

from the Jatuporn Is A Thug thread:

While awaiting news for today's House Committee meeting regarding the paid Red Shirt Guard Leader on the government payroll, I find the news in the other paper that ANOTHER anti-government Red Shirt (this time not a Guard Leader, but a full-on Red Shirt Leader), Wiphuthalaeng Pattanaphumthai, is ALSO an employee of the government as an official adviser to Pheu Thai Party MP and Deputy House Speaker Apiwan Wiriyachai.

Here he is (second right) with fellow Red Shirt Leaders Nattawut, Weng, and Veera as he is currently incarcerated at the Bangkok Remand Prison on terrorism charges:

The House of Representatives secretariat has confirmed he was hired in February 2008 and again in October 2009 on year-long contracts and paid a government salary to work as an adviser to the Pheu Thai Party high-up Apiwan.

The same Democrat MP involved with exposing Jatuporn's shenanigans is again highlighting that perhaps this second case of an anti-government government employee is also a bit amiss.

He is hoping that Apiwan will not re-nominate him to his advisory position this year for another contract.

Astounding stuff reminiscent of the old roadway construction signs:

Your Tax Dollars At Work

[rubl]

Found on <URL Automatically Removed> from the 6th of May 2010:

post: And if PT wins, as it likely will, what do you think their first act will be??????

reply: Shut down Thaivisa.com

Keep smiling

Edited October 15, 2010 by rubl

[tmd5855]

A landslide? You're dreaming. Look at the last election for an indicator.

Should have made it clearer. A landslide, I doubt.

The reds are not some homogeneous lower class ill educated bunch.

There are thousands of middle aged Isaan people working down around the Eastern seaboard for MNC's or have their own companies, and I have been quite shocked about how vocal they are over a beer or on the golf course.

However, a lot of the view that they have is that the rich of Bangkok have hoodwinked the country economically for decades and something needs to change.

I can't argue with that, but the problem is if I tell them that Thaksin probably isn't the saviour they expect him to be, they take the view that he is the least worst option for the long term of the country outside Bangkok.

Very well put. Cannot say better?

I thought I were the only person on TV that can see support (Whether right or wrong) for Thaksin and the red shirts.

[hanuman1]

The Preamble:

-------------

Taksin is a leech on the backside of humanity. Should be sent to jail. I don't like the guy. He didn't execute his job as PM in the interests of the nation etc etc etc. Absolutely.

The Point:

----------

Now, at the foot of the OP, it says.

He (Taksin) denounced all forms of violence regardless of who was involved.

Now something tells me that most of y'all are going to be somewhat less than impressed to hear that. You will say he is not to be believed. Maybe you are right.

We often get demands from some posters that current 'Red Leaders' should denounce violent actions.

My question is: Would it really make the blindest bit of difference to you if they did?

And if not, why bother asking them to do it?

Edited October 15, 2010 by hanuman1

[rixalex]

I thought I were the only person on TV that can see support (Whether right or wrong) for Thaksin and the red shirts.

I think everyone can see it. I don't think anyone denies that Thaksin and the red shirts have support in Thailand. The question is to what degree.

(As an aside, anyone know where all the posters who used to adamantly insist that the red shirt movement had gone beyond Thaksin have disappeared to?)

[steven100]

Why is it that the media continue to raise the Thaksin issue every few months. Thailand needs to forget about Thaksin and think about the future !

Move on ... forget the past ... thats history.

I believe if the Thai people and the government could bury the thaksin issue and concerntrate on building its future so it can become a prosperous nation , this would certainly help everyone.

Every time the media throw out a news artical about thaksin , surely it only helps to add flame to the fire .... is that what they want ?

This is my opinion.

[rixalex]

We often get demands from some posters that current 'Red Leaders' should denounce violent actions.

My question is: Would it really make the blindest bit of difference to you if they did?

And if not, why bother asking them to do it?

It would make a difference if they meant it. Words come cheap. Let's see action.

For example, if you support a group that then commits an act of terrorism, take your support elsewhere.

[way2muchcoffee]

We often get demands from some posters that current 'Red Leaders' should denounce violent actions.

My question is: Would it really make the blindest bit of difference to you if they did?

And if not, why bother asking them to do it?

It does make a difference. All PTP and UDD leadership must take a united stance in condemning all violence. They must do this because of their past actions inciting the violence. Any failure to do this will be a tacit approval for bombings, assassinations, etc.

Edited October 15, 2010 by way2muchcoffee

[rixalex]

Every time the media throw out a news artical about thaksin , surely it only helps to add flame to the fire .... is that what they want ?

I wish the media would move on too, but surely the media should be allowed to print what they so desire.

[hanuman1]

Every time the media throw out a news artical about thaksin , surely it only helps to add flame to the fire .... is that what they want ?

I wish the media would move on too, but surely the media should be allowed to print what they so desire.

Not in this country, methinks.

Edited October 15, 2010 by hanuman1

[brahmburgers]

The big question is whether he will make a promise to never return or dabble in Thai politics/paramilitary activities if they lose in a landslide election....that would be nice

Yes, I mean you can say what you like about the man, but his word is his bond.

It seems to be a cultural quirk for Thais - that telling the truth is some sort of quaint pollyanna trait. Being truthful carries no resonance here. Sort of like wearing earplugs when using loud electric tools - ....you're considered a pussy if you wear protection for ears/eyes/hands. Similarly denigrating attitude given to anyone so naive as to be truthful.

As an aside, anyone know where all the posters who used to adamantly insist that the red shirt movement had gone beyond Thaksin have disappeared to?)

Good point! There used to be fifteen to twenty die-hard Thaksin supporters who would chime in every time T was showcased on a T.Visa topic. Now, they appear to be gone. It fits with my theory that they were just one or a few people who used several user names (easy to do). Plus, all those usernames signed up within a few weeks of the start of the Red rally in Spring of this year. It also fits with a premise articulated in my new book about Thaksin.

[rixalex]

Every time the media throw out a news artical about thaksin , surely it only helps to add flame to the fire .... is that what they want ?

I wish the media would move on too, but surely the media should be allowed to print what they so desire.

Not in this country, methinks.

Yes in this country. The media might not be impartial, in fact we know it is not - true of course in most countries - but to suggest that the media is directed as to what to print by the authorities is a nonsense that is highlighted by the point steven was making. ie if the authorities had control there would not be Thaksin stories hitting the front pages every other day, maintaining his high profile.

[hanuman1]

Every time the media throw out a news artical about thaksin , surely it only helps to add flame to the fire .... is that what they want ?

I wish the media would move on too, but surely the media should be allowed to print what they so desire.

Not in this country, methinks.

Yes in this country. The media might not be impartial, in fact we know it is not - true of course in most countries - but to suggest that the media is directed as to what to print by the authorities is a nonsense that is highlighted by the point steven was making. ie if the authorities had control there would not be Thaksin stories hitting the front pages every other day, maintaining his high profile.

Are you nuts? Would you like to be famous for being vilified every day in national newspapers?

It's logic, Captain, but not as we know it......

[animatic]

It is possible that his puppet party may form a government, but a landslide isn't in the cards or a one party government. His pronouncement may fire up his base, but his goal seems impossible.

Thaksin Shinawatra will return to Thailand if the opposition Pheu Thai Party wins a landslide election victory and forms a one-party government . . .

Well PPP won, and Thaksin came back, still lost his case, and still scurried off to safety abroad, rather than have the stones to do his short sentence. What makes him think a solid win will change his status this time, when it didn't work before? Remember what happened last time they tried to change the laws?

Chaos and carnage. It will be no different, unless Thaksin retires definitely

this will go one and on.

No,

this is no more than a faux promisory note to the Red Shirts and PTP loyalist fence sitters, who's memories are too short to remember this didn't work 2 years ago either.

Edited October 15, 2010 by animatic

[rixalex]

Yes in this country. The media might not be impartial, in fact we know it is not - true of course in most countries - but to suggest that the media is directed as to what to print by the authorities is a nonsense that is highlighted by the point steven was making. ie if the authorities had control there would not be Thaksin stories hitting the front pages every other day, maintaining his high profile.

Are you nuts? Would you like to be famous for being vilified every day in national newspapers?

It's logic, Captain, but not as we know it......

How is this article vilifying him?

Anyway, Thaksin needs exposure and can't be too picky about what type. Even if some articles might not reflect favourably on him, they are keeping him in the public eye. It's what he needs and what the authorities don't; and if the authorities had complete control over the media as you suggest, we wouldn't be hearing about him.

[Beardog]

Quote: Red Shirt Faction Leader Warns Some Red Shirts May Become Suicide Bombers.

This says it all from the man that controls the puppets. If you don't let me back this is what will happen to you & yours. WAAAAHHHHHHH!

[Buchholz]

I thought I were the only person on TV that can see support (Whether right or wrong) for Thaksin and the red shirts.

I think everyone can see it. I don't think anyone denies that Thaksin and the red shirts have support in Thailand. The question is to what degree.

(As an aside, anyone know where all the posters who used to adamantly insist that the red shirt movement had gone beyond Thaksin have disappeared to?)

They seemed to have gone the way of those that adamantly insisted that the Pheu Thai Party wasn't controlled by Thaksin and those that insisted that the red shirt movement was peaceful.

[BigBikeBKK]

What is it with Thaksin and the word democracy?

Does the guy even understand the meaning?

[whybother]

The Preamble:

-------------

Taksin is a leech on the backside of humanity. Should be sent to jail. I don't like the guy. He didn't execute his job as PM in the interests of the nation etc etc etc. Absolutely.

The Point:

----------

Now, at the foot of the OP, it says.

He (Taksin) denounced all forms of violence regardless of who was involved.

Now something tells me that most of y'all are going to be somewhat less than impressed to hear that. You will say he is not to be believed. Maybe you are right.

We often get demands from some posters that current 'Red Leaders' should denounce violent actions.

My question is: Would it really make the blindest bit of difference to you if they did?

And if not, why bother asking them to do it?

It's good to hear (see) that it's been said. Now make sure all the red shirt supporters know about it.

[TheyCallmeScooter]

Very well put. Cannot say better?

I thought I were the only person on TV that can see support (Whether right or wrong) for Thaksin and the red shirts.

When you hijack issues people care about, and throw your network and $ into kicking up a stink - people are going to warm to you.

It's the old "There is my army. Quick tell me where they are going so that I may lead them!"

When he no longer needs your vote or your support or your attention, it's not like he's just kill you off for the sake of it. Although it's not guaranteed that he won't, either. People are valuable and expendable at the same time. Just like his money. People are valuable...capital. Sometimes you conserve, sometimes you expend. Obviously now he's conserving human capital, and no doubt he's 'caring' in ways we (or at least I) am unaware....in the PTP-controlled world. It's no wonder he's feeling the love.

hanuman1 (I had 5 quotes, was allowed only 4 - it was like Sophie's Choice...)

What are you hoping to discover? That people who are horrified at terrorism are just pretending to be appalled?

Yeah, there's promise in that line of investigation. Please pursue it all the way to the end. You'll need to be persistent. Some will be quite adamant that they actually dislike terrorism. But you'll wear them down and they'll admit the truth in the end. Go get 'em tiger.

?

Every time the media throw out a news artical about thaksin , surely it only helps to add flame to the fire .... is that what they want ?

Your opinion is obvious fact.

When you are irrelevant and illegitimate and powerless.....what would be the 3 things you want most? For me they would be ice-cream related. But for Thaksin, they are:

1. Relevancy

2. Legitimacy

3. Power

All the Red Propaganda network's articles are almost pitifully yearning for attention. Just desperate for someone to give them the time of day - hopefully someone important. If they could force the King to engage them, they would be trying. All that joker Pravit's propaganda articles all have one thing in common - he's continually ascribing opinions to important people, hoping they engage him.

" the monarchy is terrified of the threat posed by Thaksin"

" the government is terrified of the threat posed by Prachatai"

" when I asked the general if the Army will ever be used to keep the peace again, he said 'it may be required' - omg omg everyone, isn't that the most thinly veiled threat against Thaksin you've ever heard"....

" everyone is scared of us, you hear me! terrified of us! we are relevant godammit! you need to engage us! please?????"

It's a little bit pitiful.

Being truthful carries no resonance here. Sort of like wearing earplugs when using loud electric tools - ....you're considered a pussy if you wear protection for ears/eyes/hands. Similarly denigrating attitude given to anyone so naive as to be truthful.

It also fits with a premise articulated in my new book about Thaksin.

The lying stuff is interesting - for personal reasons. It makes a LOT of sense. And bricks are falling on my head right now if that's the case. My only problem with that is...why are they such terrible liars? (is it because no one ever pulls them up on it? is pulling someone up on an obvious lie considered poor form?)

I read Ch 13 and thought it showed solid potential, I chuckled multiple times. I'll download it at some point, looks promising.

Pure hypothetical: if Thaksin was pardoned, would you beeline it to a border?

Are you nuts? Would you like to be famous for being vilified every day in national newspapers?

It's logic, Captain, but not as we know it......

Wilde: "The only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about."

Marketing 101: "There's no such thing as bad publicity."

There are few for who this is more true than those mixed up in the attention-seeking game of illegitimate protest / terrorism.