Kasikornbank Sees Baht At 25 In 2 Years -

[TenCent]

Regarding a recent Articel in the Bangkok Post - but more detailed explained in this Link

http://www.bahtsold.com/news?id=3150

Kasikorn Bank predicts a further Apreciation of the Thai Baht

What would be the best Way to participate in this Forecast?

Is there any mutual Fund, who invests in Thai Bonds?

[Naam]

What would be the best Way to participate in this Forecast?

the prediction is for the pair USDTHB. is your investment/income in USD?

[flying]

she also said....

"In 2011, inflation will likely expand as the country copes with floods and rising food prices, but this is not cause to worry as interest rates should also rise," said Mrs Wiwan.

Gold prices will be high but volatile, possibly reaching $1,380 an ounce but not lower than $1,300, she said.

So maybe 25/1 is pretty tame Or perhaps will happen a lot sooner than 2 years out

Edited November 1, 2010 by flying

[britmaveric]

might lose your shirt on that mate - forex is very iffy stuff.

[wasabi]

I predict in 5 years legions of hansum Thai men will be coming to the USA for friendly and approachable women.

[flying]

I predict in 5 years legions of hansum Thai men will be coming to the USA for friendly and approachable women.

Boy are they in for a disappointment

[givenall]

What would be the best Way to participate in this Forecast?

the prediction is for the pair USDTHB. is your investment/income in USD?

I think is very hard to predict past trend does not grantee future trend. If and when US economy recovers, the investment will be shifted back away from Thailand. As far as I can see unlike China and Vietnam, Thailand has nothing to offer long term for economic development

[Jingthing]

25 per USD is pretty depressing for a lot of us. Oh well. May be time to learn Spanish.

[crusader79]

I predict in 5 years legions of hansum Thai men will be coming to the USA for friendly and approachable women.

Boy are they in for a disappointment

The women or the men? Or both?

[paquito]

25 per USD is pretty depressing for a lot of us. Oh well. May be time to learn Spanish.

No need to learn Spanish (btw: I do speak it). Latin America won't be an option either. I spend 8 months backpacking south of the Amazon in 2005 and now I'm on a motorbike tour Patagonia-Alaska. Prices here have doubled (in Euro!) in the last 5 years. Since Sept. 2010 I've been in Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil. Price levels in Brazil are more than twice compared to SE-Asia, even Paraguay is at least 50% higher. Maybe Bolivia is still cheaper. And South American currencies keep appreciating just like Asian ones :-(

(e.g. cheap hotels in Argentinian provincial towns are starting at € 16, in Brazil it's € 20, in Paraguay € 12 - And quality of these hotels is rather lower than in THB 500 to 700 hotels in Thailand)

[flying]

The women or the men? Or both?

I never thought past the women but now that you mention it I had to laugh....Your right both

25 per USD is pretty depressing for a lot of us. Oh well. May be time to learn Spanish.

And South American currencies keep appreciating just like Asian ones :-(

Folks need to see this in simpler terms.... If your home currency is USD

The world is getting more expensive

[Jingthing]

25 per USD is pretty depressing for a lot of us. Oh well. May be time to learn Spanish.

No need to learn Spanish (btw: I do speak it). Latin America won't be an option either. I spend 8 months backpacking south of the Amazon in 2005 and now I'm on a motorbike tour Patagonia-Alaska. Prices here have doubled (in Euro!) in the last 5 years. Since Sept. 2010 I've been in Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil. Price levels in Brazil are more than twice compared to SE-Asia, even Paraguay is at least 50% higher. Maybe Bolivia is still cheaper. And South American currencies keep appreciating just like Asian ones :-(

(e.g. cheap hotels in Argentinian provincial towns are starting at € 16, in Brazil it's € 20, in Paraguay € 12 - And quality of these hotels is rather lower than in THB 500 to 700 hotels in Thailand)

I'm under the impression that Argentina is still affordable. I knew about Brazil getting pricey.

[mommysboy]

2 years- 2 months more like.

USA has to do it - back door protectionism and buys off a lot of dollar debt.

[paquito]

I'm under the impression that Argentina is still affordable. I knew about Brazil getting pricey.

I'd crank that statement one notch up: Argentina is pretty pricey, Brazil is rediculously expensive (except food in the hinterland where a good meal is only $10).

Ask me again in a couple of months. I'm heading south to Ushuaia now. Since September I've only been to BsAs and north. Patagonia wasn't cheap 5 years ago when the rest of Argentina was a real bargain.

[puyaidon]

I wonder if this is the same guy who predicted an earthquake in Bangkok, a tsunami in the Gulf of Thailand and other disasters?

As long as "The One" is still sitting in the catbird seat, things in the US will remain bad. How many think that only the US currency would be hit hard? I can see others falling.

I see people in the Thaivisa forum complaining about the pound, Euro, and many other currencies here in Thailand. I am an American and I can see that other currencies are not immune. The next guy to get his name in the paper might say that the rate will be 20 baht to the US dollar like it was during the 60's. Watch the investment dry up like never before. Some may like it here but the government better set up schools for all the tourism sector workers as there will be no tourists. It is bad now, how about at 25?

Edited November 1, 2010 by puyaidon

[Jingthing]

25 is indeed very likely as that it is a strong historical level that the current baht strength is clearly going to test someday. The question is when.

[personchester]

25 per USD is pretty depressing for a lot of us. Oh well. May be time to learn Spanish.

Yes, depressing indeed since it affects peoples entire life style, moreover, it is difficult for the average chap to forecast FX rates unless one has contact with George Soros ...

Language-wise ... Spanish is not on the forefront, Latino's are not known for their economical efficiency, learning Chinese and or Hindi might perhaps be more positive.

But don't give up, the western economies are in the process of reshaping profoundly, the tree major currencies USD, GBP, and EUR are bound to recover and when the time comes we will be able to smile again.

[djayz]

25 per USD is pretty depressing for a lot of us. Oh well. May be time to learn Spanish.

Yes, depressing indeed since it affects peoples entire life style, moreover, it is difficult for the average chap to forecast FX rates unless one has contact with George Soros ...

Language-wise ... Spanish is not on the forefront, Latino's are not known for their economical efficiency, learning Chinese and or Hindi might perhaps be more positive.

But don't give up, the western economies are in the process of reshaping profoundly, the tree major currencies USD, GBP, and EUR are bound to recover and when the time comes we will be able to smile again.

Agree with you on the last point, unfortunately nobody can predict "when" the major currencies will recover... If I had a rough idea WHEN the Euro will recover it would make a couple of decisions I have to make so much easier for me now...

[flying]

What is now in the rear view mirror is no guarantee of where we are headed.

[Naam]

But don't give up, the western economies are in the process of reshaping profoundly, the tree major currencies USD, GBP, and EUR are bound to recover and when the time comes we will be able to smile again.

sure!

[Beechboy]

The next 24 hours is significant as the decision will be made about more quantitive easing in the U.S. to weaken the dollar further.

With more investment dollars "sloshing" around Asia and with rival countries like Taiwan (yesterday?) and Korea and others in the area taking strong measures to curtail their currencies, the relatively mild measures taken by the Thai Bank/Govt. will not be enough to stop a false investment boom which will lead to an eventual crash 90's style. All bubbles burst and this phenomena has become a bubble.

As usual, Thailand is a bit sleepy whilst others are decisive. A currency war has begun and Thailand seems mostly oblivious to it. Thinking for today again, again.

There is more pain ahead for ex-pats relying on income from the U.S. and Europe, and for visitors to Thailand, as well as for all in the Country employed in tourism or the broader export market.

[Naam]

where do you see an investment boom?

[Beechboy]

where do you see an investment boom?

The steady rise of any currency is due to demand for that currency. In this case investors are favouring, for example, Thai Government Bonds with decent interest rates and buying them in dollars etc. Thailand is currently awash with foreign cash.

Did not Abhisit say recently that strong foreign currency assets would be used to fund government projects?

Read the Times online today for more information re: QE in the US and its' implications Worldwide.

[kuffki]

Have you people not heard the saying "what goes up must come down"???

It will hit 25 way sooner then 2 years but the question is what would happen after that?

As i have said many times already, history has a way of repeating itself. what happened last time it was 25? it went to around 50, not to mention all the bargains in auto's and constructions

[mommysboy]

where do you see an investment boom?

I'd think the UK first.! It's not worth a raised eyebrow at all.

But I agree not next month.

I guess I'm the only one that supports the devaluation of the dollar. Look at it from the US angle, they support the world economy at great cost, have the proverbial taken out of them year on year from economies like China (and twitty Thailand that refuses to come of age), and can't compete as 'great nations' on the one hand belly ache about them but on the other hold great denominations in dollar that hamper USA recovery.

<deleted> should they not fight in any way they choose?

I am from UK by the way.

[mommysboy]

25 is indeed very likely as that it is a strong historical level that the current baht strength is clearly going to test someday. The question is when.

Yes and sort of yes, but 25 was a very pegged level that ultimately led to a quite drastic devaluation. It's true it did happen for a long while but in no way was it market determined. And one might argue the same today in a different way.

[Naam]

25 is indeed very likely as that it is a strong historical level that the current baht strength is clearly going to test someday. The question is when.

Yes and sort of yes, but 25 was a very pegged level that ultimately led to a quite drastic devaluation. It's true it did happen for a long while but in no way was it market determined. And one might argue the same today in a different way.

the 20Baht/US-Dollar peg lasted much longer (till 1985) and had no real negative effect. and that goes for the 1997 asian crisis too which was caused by different reasons than the peg.

[Naam]

where do you see an investment boom?

The steady rise of any currency is due to demand for that currency. In this case investors are favouring, for example, Thai Government Bonds with decent interest rates and buying them in dollars etc. Thailand is currently awash with foreign cash.

Did not Abhisit say recently that strong foreign currency assets would be used to fund government projects?

Read the Times online today for more information re: QE in the US and its' implications Worldwide.

not necessarily. currencies can also rise because their counterparts weaken or vice versa. by the way, Thai government bonds do not provide a decent return when compared to the country's rating. correct is that hot cash has entered the SET and sovereign bonds because the appreciation of the THB provided decent returns.

last not least, Abhisit's reference to strong foreign currency assets is based on the assets the Bank of Thailand has amassed. inflows from foreign investors can not be called "assets" even if these inflows are used to buy government debt.

[TenCent]

Hello Guys

thank you very much for all your Postings

as most of you turned your Eyes to the FX Markets, I would like to introduce you the

Big Mac Index

Burgernomics is based on the theory of purchasing-power parity, the notion that a dollar should buy the same amount in all countries. Thus in the long run, the exchange rate between two countries should move towards the rate that equalises the prices of an identical basket of goods and services in each country. Our "basket" is a McDonald's Big Mac, which is produced in about 120 countries. The Big Mac PPP is the exchange rate that would mean hamburgers cost the same in America as abroad. Comparing actual exchange rates with PPPs indicates whether a currency is under- or overvalued.

So it seems still pretty cheap here in Thailand:-)

[Naam]

Thus in the long run, the exchange rate between two countries should move towards the rate that equalises the prices of an identical basket of goods and services in each country.

that goes without saying. one just has to wait a hundred years (give or take a decade) and the non-plus-ultra wisdom of Burgernomics will surface.

what the Burgernomics fans are forgetting is that labour, rents of restaurants, utilities, local ingredients, etc. amount to a fair share of a burger's cost. not taking these expenses into consideration and extrapolating that the Pakistani Rupee is 34% or the Thai Baht 42% undervalued is <insert derogatory comment>!

Edited November 7, 2010 by Naam