Have Some Money To Invest

[clinique]

Temporary capital controls from time to time...

...are actually permanent in Thailand. if i transfer on a tuesday a million dollars to my bank in Thailand, convert the amount into Baht on wednesday, have second thoughts thursday morning, want to change into HKD and swift these HKD to Hong Kong (that they are available there friday noon for that race horse my chinese mia noi wants to buy ) can i phone SCB and tell the chap or lady at the other end "do it"?

or will SCB say

"Sir, please submit your birth certificate notarised by a public notary of your country, consularised by your country's embassy in Thailand and thai-ised by the Ministry of Interior stating clearly who are you, what are you and why are you, add a hand written CV, attach documents of your academic degrees and we will submit your application to the relevant department in our BKK head office for further evaluation. oh, and Sir! please don't forget to add three handsigned photocopies of your passport, your visa, 6 passport sized photos, a letter of indemnity from your wife, a recent medical certificate and the bra size of your mia noi.

Actually provided you have the required paperwork (not as extensive as you suggest) you can do just that. In fact when you send the money into Thailand, there is a cooling off period, where you can hold the funds "unconverted" for i beleive its 7 days. Its the conversion to baht in your example that may cause some headaches but it can be done

[fletchsmile]

I would say the approx 500% return on Aberdeen Growth over the last 10 years covers inflation nicely. (20% p.a.)

i grudgingly admit... not bad at all. but what percentage of one's capital would be advisable to invest in a single fund which invests (correct me if i'm wrong) in a single country and is managed by men who wear skirts?

Very valid point. It depends on the individual. Certainly no more than 20% in my view, and 5% to 10% max would be more realistic. One of the nice "problems" I've found with this fund is that because it's been so successful, I've had to sell from time to time to stop it taking up too high a weighting in a portfolio.

You don't have to limit yourself to the men in skirts at Aberdeen. There are also the guys in clogs over at ING, for example who have a couple of good Thai funds.

[Naam]

Actually provided you have the required paperwork (not as extensive as you suggest) you can do just that...

i don't want to provide no bloody paperwork! i am used to issue an instruction by e-mail or phone and expect that my instruction concerning my money is executed immediately without any delay. banks in Thailand do business in an anachronistic, archaic and most ridiculous way. where else on this planet do i need my passport, my bankbook and sign a photocopy of my passport to withdraw any amount of money?

[fletchsmile]

Why would I want to move money out of Thailand?

wrong syntax as far as i am concerned. for me the question is "why would i want to move money into Thailand if not for essentials such as roof over the head, transportation and general living expenses?"

You've already hit the main ones Plus:

Hedging your currency risk. Matching your assets and liabilities. Taking a view on THB as strengthening vs EUR/USD/GBP etc over longer term. We've already seen 20% - 30% depreciation of western human currencies as you alluded to above. This trend will likely continue long term with the usual ups and downs along the way that your dog foresees in your crystal ball.

You could also build up an education fund for my daughters and a small portfolio to look after my Thai Mrs wife in Thailand after I move into my next life, and indeed any contributions to these liabilities from other TV members are welcome. This is also an excellent way for mitigating (some) inheritance tax, as well as capital gains and income taxes for the non-Americans of the species.

Of course I'd totally agree that we should be keeping money outside of Thailand and in other parts of the universe. That's also worth sticking a limit on as you mentioned above. For me say no more than 30 to 40 % of total assets in Thailand.

Edited February 15, 2011 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

Temporary capital controls from time to time...

...are actually permanent in Thailand. if i transfer on a tuesday a million dollars to my bank in Thailand, convert the amount into Baht on wednesday, have second thoughts thursday morning, want to change into HKD and swift these HKD to Hong Kong (that they are available there friday noon for that race horse my chinese mia noi wants to buy ) can i phone SCB and tell the chap or lady at the other end "do it"?

or will SCB say

"Sir, please submit your birth certificate notarised by a public notary of your country, consularised by your country's embassy in Thailand and thai-ised by the Ministry of Interior stating clearly who are you, what are you and why are you, add a hand written CV, attach documents of your academic degrees and we will submit your application to the relevant department in our BKK head office for further evaluation. oh, and Sir! please don't forget to add three handsigned photocopies of your passport, your visa, 6 passport sized photos, a letter of indemnity from your wife, a recent medical certificate and the bra size of your mia noi.

That's because you're officially an "alien" here Mars bar head

Even the fire of an old wizard like myself is humbled before the monstrous figure of Thai immigration and bureaucracy. They've taken at least ten thousand copies of my birth certificate in the last few centuries alone

Edited February 15, 2011 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

Oops edited for double post. Must have been all that talk about immigration and photocopies

Still it could be worse. We could be in France, the home of paperwork and bureaucracy (incidentally a French word and not by coincidence). I remember many moons ago sending them something in triplicate. They sent it all back with a rejection letter that only the French could write on such an occasion, saying they'd changed the rules again and this year they only required duplicate, and I would need to resend.

Edited February 15, 2011 by fletchsmile

[Naam]

They sent it all back with a rejection letter that only the French could write on such an occasion, saying they'd changed the rules again and this year they only required duplicate, and I would need to resend.

i klaim zat kould haff happened in my home kountry Tchermanny too

[PCA]

Read "Fail safe Investing" by Harry Browne. Old book, solid advice. Just omit the part about buying bonds....

...

assuming you live in Thailand you should buy Thai shares and you might have a lot of fun. perhaps not as much fun as those investors who bought the SET 16 years ago in 1994 @ 1,753 and cut their losses in the meantime to a mere 42%. they laugh about the cowards who committed suicide in 1998 because those lost 88% of their capital when the SET dropped from its 1,753 high to 207.

I would have thought after all these years on TV Dr.Naam you'd stop confusing these mere humans You are correct that the index has not yet reached the prior peak you quote. Using your data point to current day is a loss of over 3% per year. The big BUT though is that this excludes dividend returns, which have averaged 4%+ for the last 10 years or so.

The real picture is therefore that even taking the worst possible point as you have done, until current day, the return would be positive! 3%+ capital loss BUT 4%+ dividend income would outweigh this if reinvested.

Now find yourself a good fund manager such as Aberdeen, whose alpha (return relative to index) consistently (but not every year) outperforms the index and the story is even better. I've been averaging over 20% per year over the last decade or so on Thai funds.

You're right on volatility though

Skipping the flattering part of the post I just feel a need to comment on the text in bold. Nobody on this planet did average 20% per annum (over a decade as you claim) with Thai Equity Funds. The thai stock market for the average (trustful) investor has been a net loser since more then 15 years. Naam is quite correct, it's a roller coaster and every amateur (including you and those who work for Aberdeen) should keep their fingers off and not advertise with wrong data.!

[Naam]

Skipping the flattering part of the post I just feel a need to comment on the text in bold. Nobody on this planet did average 20% per annum (over a decade as you claim) with Thai Equity Funds. The thai stock market for the average (trustful) investor has been a net loser since more then 15 years. Naam is quite correct, it's a roller coaster and every amateur (including you and those who work for Aberdeen) should keep their fingers off and not advertise with wrong data.!

my thoughts were similarly skeptical. but as i am familiar with the background of "Fletchsmile" i have a hard time to doubt his words. then it's also matter to define the 20% p.a. which, using linear ("milkmaid") appreciation it is even on the low side.

SET 288 end of 2001 and 1031 end of 2010 = linear p.a. 74 = >25.69%

of course, if one extends the period to 15 years the result is negative.

[fletchsmile]

Skipping the flattering part of the post I just feel a need to comment on the text in bold. Nobody on this planet did average 20% per annum (over a decade as you claim) with Thai Equity Funds. The thai stock market for the average (trustful) investor has been a net loser since more then 15 years. Naam is quite correct, it's a roller coaster and every amateur (including you and those who work for Aberdeen) should keep their fingers off and not advertise with wrong data.!

my thoughts were similarly skeptical. but as i am familiar with the background of "Fletchsmile" i have a hard time to doubt his words. then it's also matter to define the 20% p.a. which, using linear ("milkmaid") appreciation it is even on the low side.

SET 288 end of 2001 and 1031 end of 2010 = linear p.a. 74 = >25.69%

of course, if one extends the period to 15 years the result is negative.

Thank you Dr.Naam your calcs are indeed a sanity and reasonableness check, along similar lines to my own

PCA, For further info:

Price on Fri 29 Dec 2000 (end of 2000) for Aberdeen Growth = 7.5529 per unit. Price on 16 Feb 2011 57.4537. => Increase of 7.607 times

And of course I use compounding interest rates to arrive at 20%+, not "linear milkmaid rates", which as Naam correctly points out would be even higher

check calc: 1.20^10 for example is 6.192. Feel free to derive the internal rate of return yourself, and you'll get over 20%

Discrete Year Performances if you prefer looking that way:

2001 + 25.5%

2002 + 48.2%

2003 +100.1%

2004 - 4.2%

2005 + 26.5%

2006 + 13.4%

2007 +16.2%

2008 -40.1% - Yes I held throughout this year and suffered the loss in excess of 40%

2009 +55.7%

2010 +43.6%

All these are based on my own data captures of month-end prices I store

The fund was first registered in July 1997, so people wouldn't have been able to hold for 15 years, even if they wanted to. In actual fact it dropped from 10 baht/unit on inception to 7.5529 by Dec 2000. Believe it or not in 1997 and 1998 it didn't look that great to me in terms of buying equities. Feel free to Google why.

I started buying around 1999, (initially losing money) and have a weighted average acquisition date of close to Dec 2000.

Now if you'll trust me and believe I'm on this planet, I think I've backed up my statement:)

Naam also did a valid reasonableness check

Would you like to re-evalutae and back up your statement, PCA

[fletchsmile]

BTW It's rather unfair to pick the 15 year return to deliberately choose the worst period for SET

The index started in 1975. In that 35 years it has risen about 10 times (100 to 1000+/-)which is just under 7% pa. This excludes dividends which probably have been around an additional 4%. So over a 35 year period SET has seen double digit returns.

Personally the Thai stock market didn't really appeal to me 35 years ago Thailand is also a different market now then 35 years ago, so probably doesn't mean that much taking such a long term compunding average.

My interest in its stockmarket has been mainly the last decade on so. I expect it to do fine for the next decade as well. Yes the Thai stock market will be a rollercoster, and volatile enough to lose half your money one year and double it the next. BUT I expect by 2020 if you look back it will have had double digit returns p.a.

[jayinoz]

Most brokers here claim to outperform the market greatly via 'various' contacts- Taksin style. We all know the only way to seriously outperform the market other than pure LUCK. Aberdeen claim to outperform greatly as well when consulted with them. Asking them to prove it is simply- they make up figures in a presentation to show you. Thai style being to be totally unbelievable.

But I hear some people in the know do outperform the market via individual companies or a small lot of associated companies- Taksin style. It is SE ASIA after all.... pay for insider info.... Mr T just got away with another few 1000 million baht and charges dropped. it a joke only if we do not benefit- lol. Some brokers claim to have Taksin like skills being the name of the game in these markets.

Otherwise put money in BKK Bank stocks and get good yields.... if believe in the growth story of thai in coming years as an emerging economy. Even with all the corruption and pretense that we have all grown to love. Brokers PAY for their information- plus others in the know- without a doubt. Much like the rest of the world- at least it more transparent to see here IMO. Greed and fear rules the world.

Gold\silver if you more a doomsdayer............... with all the Advanced countries debt worries who cannot be a little doomsday like. Safe was is a suite of commodities and equities. If same claim to outperform greatly- test them out with 5% of your worth then see how you go.

The last few months a Diamond Trading in BKK fr Africa mine to HK sellers- claims he can turn your money into over 30%+ every single month. Payable every 90 days.... not compounded monthly 90% after 90 days. He will even put up equity to cover investment- not worth much when he takes off with your $$$. All sorts of dodgy investments for you in this world- if it sounds too good to be true then it generally is. Since having the offer made to me- 4 brokers have called trying to see if they can be apart of the action with the Diamond trader. Settle down cowboys. Due diligence needs to confirm assets to take.... as I said all sorts of schemes. Some worth a look- MOST not..... sounded a bit 'blood diamondish' to me.

Cheers JAY

[DocTom]

For investing in the UK, try advice from Best Invest (www.bestinvest.co.uk) or Hargreaves Lansdown (www.hl.co.uk), or both, who have recommended ISAs and trusts, allat discounted purchase prices.

DocTom.

[peterpop]

I think that the advice you got from jsflynn603 was comprehensive to a fault. ie it is spot on but essentially ultra cautious.

I have been through the dot com and 2008/9 crises and lost money but have bounced back on both occasions. Todays problems are truly alarming. There is no cover so do we all give up. NO lets have a little optimism.

I think that as the future of the only viable financial system [capitalism] hangs on the trading success of listed companies then this has to be the final answer. Invest in solid UK based Investment trust companies as mentioned above. I recommend the following

Scottish Mortgage SMT, Black Rock Smaller Companies BRSC, Dunedin Smaller Companies DNDL, and [for lowest risk] Alliance Trust ATST. If you put equal amounts in each you should return good capital growth and some income. I invest in these and others.

Check out their historic performance on http://www.trustnet.com/Investments/Perf.aspx?univ=T

Good luck

As far as investment advisers I say what I asked my sister to do: Ask the Advisor: "How did you fare between September 2008 and September 2010." In almost all cases you will receive no answer at all.

Thanks for an informative post, and I'll certainly try that question!

[SolarOhm]

It depends what your objectives are, the time frame for the investments, your personal circumstances, your risk-reward tolerances, your education and professional skills, and whether you want to manage your own investments or give that task to someone else.

If you are a short term investor then stay away from stocks and real estate. Look at bonds and the AUD$.

If you are a medium term investor consider stocks in the developing world markets - which includes Thailand; but take a portfolio approach.

When possible go for a Guaranteed return over risk. If you have business management skills you could put some of your capital - no more than a third in to a business that has good profits with at least a 3 year track record. You should be able to make 30% p.a. on your money - and if not then do not entertain it!

When you run your business make sure you take advantage of the tax breaks offered by Provident Fund investing - which will allow you to store capital for retirement and provide protection against possible business failure.

Allocate about a third of your capital to commodities - and get a good investment manager to look after that, unless you have all the skills, knowledge and time to do it yourself. (If you have then you should enter that business yourself).

The remaining third of your capital should be kept liquid - in bonds and currencies to take advantage of market opportunities.

[midas]

Now here is a really good investment proposition ………………………………….

I think this would be a very appropriate situation in which to ask the question “ am I missing something “ ??

Woman Pays $10,000 For ‘Non-Visible’ Work Of Art

http://www.firstthings.com/blogs/firstthoughts/2011/07/22/woman-pays-10000-for-non-visible-work-of-art/

I've never understood people who pay big money for “ art “ ……… In fact I've thought some of them are nutcases…… but paying money for “ non-visible “ art… I think calling them nutcases is even too generous? This woman would be a great candidate to buy that bridge that someone was offering recently?

[ToffeEFCpower]

Until very recently I was living and working in Thailand as a teacher (no derisory comments, please). I've been back in the UK for just a few months but have already decided that I'd much rather be somewhere else, possibly Taiwan or China, or working in Thailand again. I have a house in the UK which I have previously let but for various reasons have decided that I would rather sell now, with the option to buy again later if prices take a dive. Actually, that is one of my preferred options. Doom mongers currently predict a fall of about 20% but even the agents admit 5 - 10% is quite likely.

It seems that I now have a buyer and hope to exchange contracts very soon. I don't have a mortgage so I'll have some cash to invest. I also have some other savings currently earning about 3% which is less than inflation. I should have about GBP 250K in total, cash, and am wondering what to do with it. I'm in my early 40s, not a qualified teacher (limiting my income to about THB 70K per month) and am not interested in buying a condo or investing in some bar. The options I have considered so far include keeping the money as cash or bonds (no more than about 4.5% return). I think I should diversify a little but don't know where to start. I have spoken to a manager at Charles Stanley (opinions, anyone?) who suggests I leave 90% of my assets with him to manage, but I'm not so sure about that either! When I finally retire, I don't expect it to be in the UK.

Anyone in a similar position or have advice to give?

Thanks for reading.

[ToffeEFCpower]

Litigation funds are a good option right now, 12% return PA. 2 year maturity

[ExpatJ]

Until very recently I was living and working in Thailand as a teacher (no derisory comments, please). I've been back in the UK for just a few months but have already decided that I'd much rather be somewhere else, possibly Taiwan or China, or working in Thailand again. I have a house in the UK which I have previously let but for various reasons have decided that I would rather sell now, with the option to buy again later if prices take a dive. Actually, that is one of my preferred options. Doom mongers currently predict a fall of about 20% but even the agents admit 5 - 10% is quite likely.

It seems that I now have a buyer and hope to exchange contracts very soon. I don't have a mortgage so I'll have some cash to invest. I also have some other savings currently earning about 3% which is less than inflation. I should have about GBP 250K in total, cash, and am wondering what to do with it. I'm in my early 40s, not a qualified teacher (limiting my income to about THB 70K per month) and am not interested in buying a condo or investing in some bar. The options I have considered so far include keeping the money as cash or bonds (no more than about 4.5% return). I think I should diversify a little but don't know where to start. I have spoken to a manager at Charles Stanley (opinions, anyone?) who suggests I leave 90% of my assets with him to manage, but I'm not so sure about that either! When I finally retire, I don't expect it to be in the UK.

Anyone in a similar position or have advice to give?

Thanks for reading.

ToffeEFCpower

I am in a similar position- i began investing my cash seriously a couple of years ago- i started my portfolio as follows- 10% gold, 30% property (i bought a condo that i rent out) , 40% equities , 20% cash. Since then i have increased my gold holdings just a month or so ago infact to ride the current gold price increase (my initial 10% investment has increased by more than 35% in value!!) .

If i was you now, id keep my cash ready to buy into equities towards end of year /or when the Euro crisis ends (expect more turmoil ) i also think gold will increase to 2000$ later this year so i would say its worth putting 30K pounds into gold even now.