The New Year Dawns Bright For Abhisit

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BURNING ISSUE

The New Year dawns bright for Abhisit

By Avudh Panananda

The Nation

The year is drawing to a close and the Democrats have every reason to be thankful because 2010 was truly their year. By fate or fortune, the main coalition party has not only survived, but has emerged stronger despite the year being marred by political violence.

Although the crackdown on the red-shirt protesters inflicted the highest casualty rate in recent memory, with more than 1,000 people injured and about 91 dead, the Abhisit Vejjajiva government came away unscathed.

The mayhem in the heart of the central business district worked in the government's favour and the red shirts will forever be haunted by one unanswered question: What would have happened if they had accepted Abhisit's offer to call a snap election in November?

Before the violence erupted, the red-shirt leaders managed to mobilise an unprecedented number of people in what was perhaps one of the biggest rallies in Thai political history. Votes from the red shirts might have been enough to put the Democrats back on the opposition bench. The rally organisers wanted to hasten the government's exit, and ended up seeing their own downfall instead.

Blood was spilled in 1973, 1976 and 1992 to bring down three premiers, but the prevailing sentiment considers Abhisit as victim and not villain.

Every opinion poll indicates that this government's performance is unimpressive, with Abhisit barely getting a passing grade. The public finds about half the Cabinet members unrecognisable, yet the economy has grown by about 8 per cent.

The opponents might have thought they had two airtight cases to bring down the Democrat Party, but to their surprise, the Constitution Court dismissed both cases over a legal technicality. The cases were about the alleged misuse of Bt29 million in state funds and the alleged laundering of Bt258 million in campaign contributions.

Yet, despite the government's so-called unimpressive performance, three bloodbaths in two years and two narrow escapes from dissolution, Abhisit is poised to win his second term.

Fugitive ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra made two tactical decisions that worked in Abhisit's favour. Since July, he started distancing himself from the red-shirt movement. Though he's still a vocal supporter of the struggle, his financial backing has dried up.

Also, the outcome of this month's by-election showed Thaksin re-evaluating his ties with the Pheu Thai Party. Though the ex-PM is still the heart and soul of Pheu Thai, his financial largesse is not what it used to be.

For politicians, money is the currency of power. Judging by the tightening of Thaksin's purse strings, it appears as if he is deliberately aiming to downsize the main opposition party.

Though Thaksin is no fool and unlikely to hand victory over to Abhisit on a silver platter, in the circumstances, Pheu Thai is like a body without a head. The party is trying really hard to beat the Democrats, but it has been unable to come up with a credible leader.

It is conceivable that Thaksin might find it expedient to conserve his resources and bide time. In less than two years, banned Thai Rak Thai executives will be free to return to the political scene. Then he will have plenty of candidates to wrest power from Abhisit. In the meantime, Thaksin might want to court Pheu Thai to woo a Democrat-led coalition.

Though 2010 has been tumultuous, it will ensure Abhisit's victory for a second term.

However, his true battle will begin midway into this second term. Meanwhile, in 2011, he can be coy in choosing between Pheu Thai and Bhum Jai Thai as his coalition partner.

-- The Nation 2010-12-28

[SomTumTiger]

Seems to be the general consensus that Abhisit will be PM for the foreseeable future. That is a good thing for Thailand, and we should be happy. The alternatives are far to pathetic to comprehend.

[landofthefree]

Seems to be the general consensus that Abhisit will be PM for the foreseeable future. That is a good thing for Thailand, and we should be happy. The alternatives are far to pathetic to comprehend.

Poised to win his second term? When is he going to win his first one? and if he is so confident that he is going to win why isn't he naming the date for elections?

More complete tripe from the Nation.

[jayjay0]

Seems to be the general consensus that Abhisit will be PM for the foreseeable future. That is a good thing for Thailand, and we should be happy. The alternatives are far to pathetic to comprehend.

Poised to win his second term? When is he going to win his first one? and if he is so confident that he is going to win why isn't he naming the date for elections?

More complete tripe from the Nation.

There is a very good reason for not calling the election now.

Abhist really cares about Thailand. He is the most capable Person in Thailand to bring the much needed changes to Thailand. He is unlike you aware of the fact it will take time. He is very aware that he can not just say change now. It will take time.

Quite a difference from the average red shirt thinking. Bring mister T back and all will be well.

To call a election now will give him four more years. To wait until his term is up will give him five more years. Simple Arithmetic.

[landofthefree]

Seems to be the general consensus that Abhisit will be PM for the foreseeable future. That is a good thing for Thailand, and we should be happy. The alternatives are far to pathetic to comprehend.

Poised to win his second term? When is he going to win his first one? and if he is so confident that he is going to win why isn't he naming the date for elections?

More complete tripe from the Nation.

There is a very good reason for not calling the election now.

Abhist really cares about Thailand. He is the most capable Person in Thailand to bring the much needed changes to Thailand. He is unlike you aware of the fact it will take time. He is very aware that he can not just say change now. It will take time.

Quite a difference from the average red shirt thinking. Bring mister T back and all will be well.

To call a election now will give him four more years. To wait until his term is up will give him five more years. Simple Arithmetic.

Will the much needed changes include trying to be a democracy rather than the sad situation that Thailand has had in the past where the elite and the military in Bangkok get rid of any leader that they don't like, or that may threaten the divided society that works so well for them? Like you I don't know how much control Abhisit really has and whether he is the straight caring guy that you claim. What is a worrying fact is that Thailand has one of the least free presses in the world and freedom of speech has actually reduced under Abhisit's reign. That can't be healthy for any country. I suspect while Abhisit looks like a good front man the real power base will support him and thwart any attempts towards democracy as they perceive that would risk their wealth and power.

[jayjay0]

Seems to be the general consensus that Abhisit will be PM for the foreseeable future. That is a good thing for Thailand, and we should be happy. The alternatives are far to pathetic to comprehend.

Poised to win his second term? When is he going to win his first one? and if he is so confident that he is going to win why isn't he naming the date for elections?

More complete tripe from the Nation.

There is a very good reason for not calling the election now.

Abhist really cares about Thailand. He is the most capable Person in Thailand to bring the much needed changes to Thailand. He is unlike you aware of the fact it will take time. He is very aware that he can not just say change now. It will take time.

Quite a difference from the average red shirt thinking. Bring mister T back and all will be well.

To call a election now will give him four more years. To wait until his term is up will give him five more years. Simple Arithmetic.

Will the much needed changes include trying to be a democracy rather than the sad situation that Thailand has had in the past where the elite and the military in Bangkok get rid of any leader that they don't like, or that may threaten the divided society that works so well for them? Like you I don't know how much control Abhisit really has and whether he is the straight caring guy that you claim. What is a worrying fact is that Thailand has one of the least free presses in the world and freedom of speech has actually reduced under Abhisit's reign. That can't be healthy for any country. I suspect while Abhisit looks like a good front man the real power base will support him and thwart any attempts towards democracy as they perceive that would risk their wealth and power.

And you think Abhist is not the man.

If you stop to think of it it makes no difference who is Prime Minister. They will be faced by the same problems as Abhist.

Perhaps instead of what, what, what will they be you might say here is a list of things to be done and the order to do them in. From Your attitude I get the feeling you don't think he knows these things.

I wouldn't worry about the army running things if I was you. A needles waste of time.

I hear a lot of talk about them running things but no reasons other than they threw Thaksin out on his ear. I won't go into the right and the wrong of it. The point is that was years ago. That is not today. I personally can think of two reasons to support the theory of them running things. But that is all they are and the two cases are not related to Telling Thailand what to do through the Prime Ministers office.

People who want to dig up the past and claim it is today are dreamers and not very good ones at that. If I was to play that game I would.

go a lot farther back. But it is not a game I wish to play. I don't need to life is good now, And Thailand has a chance today

As for him being a straight shooter I am not sure how much of that he is. Nor do I care at the moment he is the most capable. And that is what counts.

.

[HerbalEd]

Seems to be the general consensus that Abhisit will be PM for the foreseeable future. That is a good thing for Thailand, and we should be happy. The alternatives are far to pathetic to comprehend.

Poised to win his second term? When is he going to win his first one? and if he is so confident that he is going to win why isn't he naming the date for elections?

More complete tripe from the Nation.

The article says his second "term" not his second "win." And why doesn't he name a date? He doesn't have to because the election will take place at the end of his first term .... although it could have been in November if the red shirts were not so naive and overconfident.

[manarak]

Seems to be the general consensus that Abhisit will be PM for the foreseeable future. That is a good thing for Thailand, and we should be happy. The alternatives are far to pathetic to comprehend.

Poised to win his second term? When is he going to win his first one? and if he is so confident that he is going to win why isn't he naming the date for elections?

More complete tripe from the Nation.

There is a very good reason for not calling the election now.

Abhist really cares about Thailand. He is the most capable Person in Thailand to bring the much needed changes to Thailand. He is unlike you aware of the fact it will take time. He is very aware that he can not just say change now. It will take time.

Quite a difference from the average red shirt thinking. Bring mister T back and all will be well.

To call a election now will give him four more years. To wait until his term is up will give him five more years. Simple Arithmetic.

Maybe Thaksin thinks he has better chances in some years.

The article says that in two years former TRT leaders will again be allowed into politics.

I am really afraid of what can/will happen in two or more years, strong reds coming back with Thaksin's backing in conjunction with whatever other events that may destabilize the government.

Abhisit's job is against the clock, not against the reds.

A new term will buy some time, as long as the army has compatible goals.

If the reds take over, I doubt that many people will carry out their duties to the best of their ability and in line with the law.

Edited December 28, 2010 by manarak

[SomTumTiger]

The CRES best move was labeling and disabling the money trail - during the red terrorist riots of May - I think they discovered the best way to keep this from happening again - disable the reds REAL ideology i.e. MONEY